Don Quixote of the blog DataViews
Don Quixote of the blog DataViews believes that while Strategy Lab Open is a great contest, the real competition is the market itself. This long term investor recognizes that while the SLO may be more geared toward short term investors,...
Strategy Lab Open Week Fourteen: We've been down this road before.
May 9, 2008 07:41 PM
Microsoft's not buying Yahoo, Ford may be getting a boost, investors are worried about inflation, and the stock markets are all over the place. Through it all, our intrepid stock pickers are managing their portfolios...and making some nice profits too! Here's your look at the stocks on the move in Strategy Lab Open this week:
The top five most popular stocks in the competition remained the same: Apple Computer (AAPL) held on to its lock on the top spot on the list, as even more people added the stock to their portfolios. Google (GOOG) reclaimed the number two spot, followed by Microsoft (MSFT), Potash (POT) and General Electric (GE).
Of course, Apple and Google stay popular because people keep making money with them! They led the list of the most profitable stocks in the competition for the last week. Public Storage Inc (PSA), Visa (V) and SLO Round 1 favorite Research-in-Motion (RIMM) rounded out the top five most profitable stocks list. Visa was also one of the most purchased stocks in the competition.
What our stock pickers are buying and selling this week
The top five most purchased stocks in the Strategy Lab Open for the last week cover a wide spectrum of companies. As mentioned above, Visa led the list, followed by steel and iron producer Mechel Open Joint Stock Company (MTL), mining giant Companhia Vale ADS (RIO), biotech company Celgene (CELG) and internet information provider Akamai Technologies Inc (AKAM).
Click here to read the full article
There's risk in sitting out a rally
May 9, 2008 08:00 PM
Rally ho!
Even if you're not absolutely sure the worst is over for the market -- and really, who can be? -- the danger of sitting in cash is that you miss out as a lot of stocks move up.
Five of our six Strategy Lab pros, for example, are now in the money, and our leaders are posting double-digit gains -- not bad in little more than three months during the worst financial crunch in years.
Sure, the market may be showing unreasonable giddiness. But who cares, if you can make money off it? You don't bail out until the plane is going down.
Besides, there are some very good reasons many of our players' stocks are rising. Some may make you think, "Darn, I should have thought of that."
Oil, gas and credit cards
All-Star Teamtrader Ken Kam, for example, moved to the top of the gain briefly this week, in part from a 30% payoff on Occidental Petroleum (OXY) -- hardly a surprise if you ever fill up your tank.
It might have been harder to predict and catch Apple's (AAPL) 15% move in the past two weeks or the whopping 25% move by MasterCard (MA) in the same time period. But consumer lenders seem to do well when other lenders suffer.
Still, such hard-to-predict runs are why Kam sticks by his picks through rough patches. (Check out Kam's journal this week, which again offers his list of the best funds for your portfolio's core; many readers ran to get it last round.)
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Jim Van Meerten — The Individual Investor
May 12, 2008 09:55 PM
You can learn a lot about investing by spending a day at the beach. When you first get there you ask yourself if the tide is going out or coming in. As you watch each wave, some go short and... [ more ... ]
Stephen Bock — The Mortgage Meltdown Continues
May 12, 2008 03:25 PM
The bad news regarding housing values and foreclosures continues. Because of the major downturn in property values in the areas of the country where prices increased so much during the boom many homeowners are finding themselves owing more on their... [ more ... ]
May 12, 2008 02:56 PM
I've come to the conculsion that they need to fire some people at croc's for underproduction then overproduction, stale inventory.In the word's of Donald Trump "Your fired".This is the first year that croc's will have a world wide prensence.What i'm... [ more ... ]
don barrett — Crocs-Gaining Traction or Full of Holes
May 11, 2008 05:28 PM
Crocs was originally manufactured by a company called Western Brands based in Minot,Colorado. The name was changed to Crocs as Western Brands just didn't seem to fit the little plastic shoes that are full of holes. Crocs are sold... [ more ... ]
Jim Van Meerten — Is Vad the Amatuer Cheating
May 11, 2008 10:44 AM
I thought the Marketocracy rules were that we either have an all long portfolio or and all short portfolio. This weeks commentary talks about both his long and short positions. Can we have hedge funds now? If so we are... [ more ... ]
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What is Strategy Lab Open?
Strategy Lab Open is the home of the new MSN Strategy Lab Qualifying Tournament. We're looking for the next great undiscovered investing guru. Someone who doesn't just pick hot stocks but who invests well, makes money and can teach others to do the same.
Performance: May 09, 2008
| Rank | Participant | NAV | %Gain | Total Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
vanmeerten | $12.42 | 24.15% | $1,241,592.73 |
 |
mccafferty | $12.82 | 23.69% | $1,282,433.74 |
 |
duffbeer | $10.83 | 21.65% | $1,082,806.34 |
 |
MagickNiner | $11.70 | 20.64% | $1,169,863.19 |
 |
onlyraju | $12.85 | 20.18% | $1,285,454.62 |
| See All Rankings | ||||
| See Top 50 Posts | ||||
I believe it was Chef Mario Batali of Food Network
Fame that helped popularize that ubiquitous rubber
shoe called Crocs (CROX). Since arriving on the
national stage those colorful shoes have done nothing
but generate huge sales for shareholders. All systems
were go for this rocket ship of a stock. That is until
recently when a few management mistakes combined
with a weakening economy pressured shares lower.
An earnings warning during this most recent quarter
was the final straw for many and opened the door to
massive short selling. After the close on Wednesday
the company released results that were within the
range of reduced guidance. In the world of as long
as the news wasn't horrendous the stock will go up,
CROX went flying in the after hours market. Is this
the bottom for a former high flyer? Can CROX
reignite? I want to know what you think. The news
is very timely so chime in with if you have an opinion.
I will report back with your bull/bear thoughts in
next week's column.
Looking for inspiration? Want to get an interesting discussion going? Write about the question above on your blog and you could see your answer featured here next week.
More Room to Run for Goldcorp
May 9, 2008 07:56 PM
Investors, stock gains are all about earnings and Goldcorp has a lock on them for a while. Let's examine some of the reasons why this stock will perform well over the long term. By long term I'm talking about the next six to forty months.
Goldcorp is a member of the basic materials sector. The 52 week stock price range is between 21.00 and 46.30. At this writing Goldcorp is about ten dollars a share below its 52 week high. This is the slow quarter for gold companies and that makes it a buying opportunity for you, the investor. Demand from Asia picks up in the third and fourth quarters as buyers place their orders for wedding season.
There are 708 million shares outstanding with 55% of them held by institutions. Management is repurchasing stock.
Book value (18.17) is bullish. Book value reflects the value at which assets are carried on the balance sheet.
Relative performance of stocks versus bonds is a favorable influence for Goldcorp. When the total return for stocks has outperformed bonds, that makes a bullish case for Goldcorp.
The long-term debt/capital ratio is 7.16%. This reflects well on the company's financial stability. The average ratio for gold companies is 9.5%.
May Move is Like an October "Fake out"
May 9, 2008 07:52 PM
I have seen this pattern before. We have a decent run and analysts start to relax and explain why it will continue. This is despite the fact that we have seen frequent dips (especially in the NASDAQ) during May and beyond with usual recovery in November. Now, please don't misunderstand, I am a professed Market Bull and always see stocks to buy even in the darkest times. I rarely have tried to "time the market" and usually stay fully invested. However, this is one of those times where I think the market has gotten a little ahead of itself considering the financial mess we still have, the housing slump, high gas prices, high food prices, and company earnings that have done fairly well but are still reduced. Also, consumer credit card debt is still very high. The Fed has helped with significant easing, but that has likely stopped for awhile and might even reverse.
So, if you were to considering timing the market, it depends largely on what you really believe. If you believe that this is a bear market and we have been experiencing a bear market rally, then you will be inclined to think that a large correction is coming soon. If you believe we are still in the middle of a long bull market and have simply corrected, then you will be inclined to think this market could continue to rally into the summer.
Now, being a bull, I would like to believe the latter. Unfortunately, I do not. I think that we are in the middle of a bear market and this is a bear market rally. As such, we are likely to tumble pretty fast from here and might retest the March lows.
When does Doc think we'll see a real rally in the market? Read on to find out.