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Ahknaten -- Bye Bye BIDU

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Short BIDU. I get a price target of $69.

There are some folks who take BIDU's PE and compare it to GOOG's PE, and by doing a bit of simple math (438*3.2=1402) they figure GOOG should be worth about $1400 and then they blog about it. If you take the PE's and reverse the process and lower BIDU's PE, then you get a price target of about $84. Personally, I hate these simple PE calculations, but it gives you a picture how people come up with some crazy simple price targets.

I don't see a 'smart money story' as BIDU has a high short interest.
I don't see a 'value story' as it has a high price/book, PE, price/cash flow, and I price it out as $69.
I don't see a 'growth story' (even though it has high growth), because that high growth cannot continue forever (and more than likely high estimates are based on high ROE terminal estimates).
I don't see a 'quality story' as the accruals are high.

So, I don't see a convincing story for BIDU that would make me feel comfortable pitching it for a fund that deals with smart money, value, growth, or quality.

Bye bye BIDU. Pick something else.

Comments (4)

:

Unka Ankh,

BIDU only has one ASSet - a Licence from the Red Chinese Government to Operate as it does - This licence can be "PULLED" at any time for "Political" purposes - like too much Freedom of Expression going on. The Value placed on this "Privilege" does not reflect the Political RISK involved. They can be put out of business on a "Whim". Not So ?
Or - a politically "favored" group may be 'appointed' to do this business in China.

Imagine the "ROUT" that happened when the U.S. Congress passed a law that forbade the use of Credit Cards in International Transfers for On-Line Betting & Gaming. I believe $5 to $10 BILLION was lost in a single day by the gambling outfits based on the London Stock Exchange alone.

If China pulls Baidu's "Ticket" - it will be a blood-bath for U.S. Risk-Takers ( I can't bring myself to call them 'Investors' )

There is another Factor as well. The Chinese governmant recently issued a proclamation concerning the quantity and quality of the huge numbers of IPO's in the Docket. Demand does create Supply and the Buy-into-China CRAZE is producing beaucoup Demand for anything with a Chinese Label. It is so Totally MAD rhat even the Chinese government realizes that this is Complete Capitalistic Craziness and can not be sustained. They want to "Cool"( y ? ) it until at least after the Beijing Olympics. Not So ??

Don Lee Ferk ( fka VikingWarrior )

PS :

If BIDU investors had put their cash into REAL fertilizer instead of BIDU Honey Dew, they would have had substantially more Growth @ incredibly lower RISK ( and may have even caught a Dividend or two instead of a Roller-Coaster DownDraft )

PPS :

I believe I wrote a SLO-1 Blog on Baidu when it was a High-Flyer & a BIG MO' and called it " Bye, Bye Baidu " in the Title.
If I can "pull up ' the Docs are you going to " Gimme Sum Kredit " ?
Academics like yourself should avoid plagarism like they avoid BIDU - where there's a high risk of getting Caught Out. Just "Hackin' Onya " - DLF

don ferk:

Kai,
Here's the O-rig-I-nal reference which you may Liberally Kwote w/ attribution :

Strategy of the Dolphin Lesson #5 ( Dubai , Honey , Do Buy - Honey Dew Dew
Dew)

The Dolphin-esque Strategy of Baron Von Rothschild

How little you know about the age you live in if you think that honey
is sweeter than cash in hand - Ovid

Ah, take the Cash in hand and waive the Rest. - Edward FitzGerald

Superior, it's said , never gives up it's dead
when the Winds of November come Howling -
Gordon LightFoot
" The Wreck of the Edmund FitzGerald "

Trees DON'T grow to the Sky, but foreward Price to Earnings Ratios DO. -
VikingWarrior

"Fortunes are made by buying low and selling too soon." - Baron Von Rothschild

THE STRATEGY of DELPHENIUS - The Dolphin Man :
GIVE them the 1st 20% and the last 20%
TAKE the 60% in the HeartCut then
CUT and RUN.

Baidu.com Inc ( BIDU : NASDAQ ) - Don't buy. Don't Buy! DON'T BUY !!!

This One's been SHORT & SWEET ----- as Sweet as the Taste of Honey :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VikingWarrior
Portfolio : RuthLessIntent
-
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+
BONUS : Ka-Wotes O'Da Day -
" 2001. It was a Very good year. It WAS a very good year -
for Shorts and Puts & Waits --- for DownTicks,.
When there Actually was a Down Tick Rule.
- 2007- This IS the Good Old Days"
------------------------------------- VW - The ChairMan of the Bored
-------------------------------- & - The Nemesis of the Gored

Where are the Clowns? There OUGHT to be Clowns! Bring on The Clowns. -
Jacques Brell

Is that all there is? Is That ALL there IS - to the CIRCUS? " - Miss Peggy Lee

Life is a Carnival, Believe it or not
Life IS a CARNIVAL, 10 cent a shot - The Band

"How SWeeeeeeeeeeet it is......" - Jackie Gleason ( aka Minnesota Fats )

Wednesday October 24, 2007 : 03:08 AM


NEW Addition :
Song O'da Day
Life IS a CARNival - The Band
[ on SNL - Saturday Night LIVE !!!]
http://youtube.com/watch?v=gtoyFYrXPAQ

http://youtube.com/watch?v=gtoyFYrXPAQ

&

http://youtube.com/watch?v=GEorOavpUPQ

http://youtube.com/watch?v=GEorOavpUPQ


&

http://youtube.com/watch?v=GEorOavpUPQ

http://youtube.com/watch?v=GEorOavpUPQ

ahknaten:

OOPS! Did you say a form of Bye Bidu too? HA.. I did a Google search of it, and it turns out that a bunch of folks have used a variation of that. I suppose it's not that orginal? I appreciate your comments Viking.

Keith Barton:

Agree wholeheartedly with your assessment of Baidu, these are exceptional times and it's likely the current frothy picks will suffer most.

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