InvestorPlace Blogs is powered by Marketocracy. Marketocracy has authorized Investor Place Blogs as an official registrar for voting through Marketocracy's Investment Research Rating service. Registered members of InvestorPlace Blogs are linked with a Marketocracy account to establish voting power based on their performance of trading and posting on stocks.
Short BIDU. I get a price target of $69.
There are some folks who take BIDU's PE and compare it to GOOG's PE, and by doing a bit of simple math (438*3.2=1402) they figure GOOG should be worth about $1400 and then they blog about it. If you take the PE's and reverse the process and lower BIDU's PE, then you get a price target of about $84. Personally, I hate these simple PE calculations, but it gives you a picture how people come up with some crazy simple price targets.
I don't see a 'smart money story' as BIDU has a high short interest.
I don't see a 'value story' as it has a high price/book, PE, price/cash flow, and I price it out as $69.
I don't see a 'growth story' (even though it has high growth), because that high growth cannot continue forever (and more than likely high estimates are based on high ROE terminal estimates).
I don't see a 'quality story' as the accruals are high.
So, I don't see a convincing story for BIDU that would make me feel comfortable pitching it for a fund that deals with smart money, value, growth, or quality.
Bye bye BIDU. Pick something else.
|
Comments (4)
Unka Ankh,
BIDU only has one ASSet - a Licence from the Red Chinese Government to Operate as it does - This licence can be "PULLED" at any time for "Political" purposes - like too much Freedom of Expression going on. The Value placed on this "Privilege" does not reflect the Political RISK involved. They can be put out of business on a "Whim". Not So ?
Or - a politically "favored" group may be 'appointed' to do this business in China.
Imagine the "ROUT" that happened when the U.S. Congress passed a law that forbade the use of Credit Cards in International Transfers for On-Line Betting & Gaming. I believe $5 to $10 BILLION was lost in a single day by the gambling outfits based on the London Stock Exchange alone.
If China pulls Baidu's "Ticket" - it will be a blood-bath for U.S. Risk-Takers ( I can't bring myself to call them 'Investors' )
There is another Factor as well. The Chinese governmant recently issued a proclamation concerning the quantity and quality of the huge numbers of IPO's in the Docket. Demand does create Supply and the Buy-into-China CRAZE is producing beaucoup Demand for anything with a Chinese Label. It is so Totally MAD rhat even the Chinese government realizes that this is Complete Capitalistic Craziness and can not be sustained. They want to "Cool"( y ? ) it until at least after the Beijing Olympics. Not So ??
Don Lee Ferk ( fka VikingWarrior )
PS :
If BIDU investors had put their cash into REAL fertilizer instead of BIDU Honey Dew, they would have had substantially more Growth @ incredibly lower RISK ( and may have even caught a Dividend or two instead of a Roller-Coaster DownDraft )
PPS :
I believe I wrote a SLO-1 Blog on Baidu when it was a High-Flyer & a BIG MO' and called it " Bye, Bye Baidu " in the Title.
If I can "pull up ' the Docs are you going to " Gimme Sum Kredit " ?
Academics like yourself should avoid plagarism like they avoid BIDU - where there's a high risk of getting Caught Out. Just "Hackin' Onya " - DLF
Posted by | March 15, 2008 10:04 AM
Kai,
Here's the O-rig-I-nal reference which you may Liberally Kwote w/ attribution :
Strategy of the Dolphin Lesson #5 ( Dubai , Honey , Do Buy - Honey Dew Dew
Dew)
The Dolphin-esque Strategy of Baron Von Rothschild
How little you know about the age you live in if you think that honey
is sweeter than cash in hand - Ovid
Ah, take the Cash in hand and waive the Rest. - Edward FitzGerald
Superior, it's said , never gives up it's dead
when the Winds of November come Howling -
Gordon LightFoot
" The Wreck of the Edmund FitzGerald "
Trees DON'T grow to the Sky, but foreward Price to Earnings Ratios DO. -
VikingWarrior
"Fortunes are made by buying low and selling too soon." - Baron Von Rothschild
THE STRATEGY of DELPHENIUS - The Dolphin Man :
GIVE them the 1st 20% and the last 20%
TAKE the 60% in the HeartCut then
CUT and RUN.
Baidu.com Inc ( BIDU : NASDAQ ) - Don't buy. Don't Buy! DON'T BUY !!!
This One's been SHORT & SWEET ----- as Sweet as the Taste of Honey :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VikingWarrior
Portfolio : RuthLessIntent
-
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+
BONUS : Ka-Wotes O'Da Day -
" 2001. It was a Very good year. It WAS a very good year -
for Shorts and Puts & Waits --- for DownTicks,.
When there Actually was a Down Tick Rule.
- 2007- This IS the Good Old Days"
------------------------------------- VW - The ChairMan of the Bored
-------------------------------- & - The Nemesis of the Gored
Where are the Clowns? There OUGHT to be Clowns! Bring on The Clowns. -
Jacques Brell
Is that all there is? Is That ALL there IS - to the CIRCUS? " - Miss Peggy Lee
Life is a Carnival, Believe it or not
Life IS a CARNIVAL, 10 cent a shot - The Band
"How SWeeeeeeeeeeet it is......" - Jackie Gleason ( aka Minnesota Fats )
Wednesday October 24, 2007 : 03:08 AM
NEW Addition :
Song O'da Day
Life IS a CARNival - The Band
[ on SNL - Saturday Night LIVE !!!]
http://youtube.com/watch?v=gtoyFYrXPAQ
http://youtube.com/watch?v=gtoyFYrXPAQ
&
http://youtube.com/watch?v=GEorOavpUPQ
http://youtube.com/watch?v=GEorOavpUPQ
&
http://youtube.com/watch?v=GEorOavpUPQ
http://youtube.com/watch?v=GEorOavpUPQ
Posted by don ferk | March 15, 2008 12:22 PM
OOPS! Did you say a form of Bye Bidu too? HA.. I did a Google search of it, and it turns out that a bunch of folks have used a variation of that. I suppose it's not that orginal? I appreciate your comments Viking.
Posted by ahknaten | March 15, 2008 12:28 PM
Agree wholeheartedly with your assessment of Baidu, these are exceptional times and it's likely the current frothy picks will suffer most.
Posted by Keith Barton | March 16, 2008 9:36 AM