Maybe a Pine Tree

Luster Lost and Dull Gold (Gold I Have None)

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I'm not an economist, but I like to short gold and I think it is worth about $616. I compare gold to the gold stocks, and those stocks seem quite overvalued to me. This might not be the 'correct' method (if there even is a correct method?) at analyzing gold, but I'll use it as my method. So, when I make an aggregate valuation on gold stocks, I think they're overvalued by 33%, and applying that valuation to gold, I get a price target of $616.

Would you like some potential gold short candidates? Take a look at the list I update at Earnings Torpedo. On the list, 7% of all stocks listed are gold and 57% of the material stocks are gold stocks. So I would avoid NG, RGLD, SA, UXG, VGZ and WGW. In my 'IAK' virtual short fund: NG, VGZ, TRE, RGLD, MNG and SA are being shorted; and within my 'LTCM' fund (yes, I have a sense of humor), VGZ and RGLD are shorted.

I love Canada, and I'm sad to see some Canadian stocks on there. Sorry, short Canadian gold. If you short Canadian gold and you realize that the Canadian dollar is tied to oil/gold/materials in Canada, then you might want to ask yourself - what about the Canadian currency? Short that as well? It's possible that the currency went up too far and too fast. Just recently the Canadian dollar had its largest one day fall in 46 years. It was an incredible drop. But before you think I'm shorting the Canadian $$, I'm actually optimistic about the Canadian economy. Unlike the USA, they have a surplus, and they actually have debates about how they might have too much of a surplus. That sounds like a much nicer debate than worrying about living in a deficit.

Speaking of Canadians, I'm surprised that the Prime Minister is suing the opposing party for speaking against him on some issue. (He thinks that they are slandering him, they think they're telling the truth). This particular issue puzzles me - shouldn't opposing parties be allowed to accuse the other? Imagine if Clinton, Obama, McCain sued each other every time the other made a statement that they thought wasn't entirely true. Sad, isn't it? Is that hurtful to democracy? I'm not sure. I'm just puzzled by it.

Goldman has the word Gold in it; I think it's worth $167, short it. You probably know my opinion on financials. Go long on insurance, short the rest. It's a gutsy move, but I like taking contrarian picks. Actually, for my financial fund I like about 50 stocks (not all are in the fund), but not one of those belongs to the investment banking sub-industry.

Like I said before, I'm not an economist, but I'll give my opinion - I just wish others had some 'sisu' (Finnish word) in their blood and made an opinion as well.