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Balmer falls short, You should too!

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I heard Yahoo rejected the Microsoft offer, the stock dropped, and I found myself strangely smiling.

Back in Feb. '08, I mentioned in this blog:

"Yahoo is overpriced. Sell. Microsoft is paying too much."

And then in this blog , I gave a small prediction.

"Here's my weird prediction: I think YHOO stock will fall in the next year. I think it's overvalued. Sell. Now, once YHOO falls, then I think there is a high probability that MSFT might make another offer on the company, but this time the stock will be trading at a price lower than $19, and the offer will be at least $5 billion less than the other offer they made."

So far so good, but do I feel bad for the shareholders? Sure.

Is Yahoo trying to do what is in the best interest of the shareholders? Just for fun, go to Yahoo Finance, and look at the Yahoo insider transactions on Yahoo from the past two years. It feels rather odd using Yahoo to look at itself, but let's do it for some fun. Do you see the selling? It sure looks like a director, another director, a former COO, the EVP, a President, and even a 'Chief Yahoo' has sold some shares. I'm afraid to count how much a Chief Yahoo sold. Yet, although they are exercising options and selling some stuff, the Microsoft deal wasn't good for the shareholders? Wow. Shareholders do pay attention - here's a fun exercise, in the next couple months watch to see if there is any insider selling and by whom, and ask yourself, if they're selling, shouldn't you be too?

Why do some analysts make downgrades AFTER the announcement? Do they lack the guts to go out on a limb and make a prediction, or are they just trying to 'play it safe' and keep their jobs? After all, it seems a bit easier to go along with the flow and issue predictions AFTER the event. Perhaps in 6-12 months Yahoo will get another offer from MSFT at a lower price and I'll love to see how many analysts upgrade the stock on that news, AFTER the announcement. At least I had the guts to downgrade it BEFORE the announcement.

YHOO, I think you should have taken the offer - sorry, short YHOO.

Comments (1)

Thomas Armistead:

Kai,

I was also of the opinion that YHOO was overvalued. I think YHOO is worth more to MSFT than anyone else, and they should have taken the money and run.

As you note, why are they selling and then don't let the shareholders unload at a very favorable price?

Tom

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