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How to Pick Stocks -- Quick Thoughts on HOV, BGP and VLO
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I'm not one to spin stories on stocks, as there are many blogs, newsletters, research reports and forums dedicated to doing just that. When deciding how to pick stocks, I like to ask myself this question: What type of funds would I pitch this stock to? If I think it would appeal to a variety of funds, then that gives me a 'long' opinion. If I think it wouldn't appeal to a variety of funds, then that gives a 'short' opinion. It's not terribly hard to create this opinion. If a stock would appeal to a variety of funds, then that creates a strong 'catalyst' for the stock, as many funds might be interested in increasing their exposure of that stock. It's a fairly simple story to understand. So, here are three quick stock opinions. HOV BGP Smart money funds - BGP has a high short interest. SHORT. VLO Smart money funds - VLO has low short interest. LONG. Short HOV and BGP. Buy VLO. | ||
Comments (2)
Kai,
You may be right about VLO. Just maybe, Kai.
( Kai means 'Maybe' in Finnish & 'Ocean' in Hawaiian )
Playing the Quant Opinion of Opinioms angle is like a Fund of Funds style, but tou have left out some of the Finer Qualities of VLO.
VLO recently increased it's dividend payment by 25% - an expression of confidence by management.
They have recently sold some non-strategic refineries - Aruba and Krotz Springs,
In February they announced a $3 BILLIONS stock buy-back.
At 50 VLO is well below it's 52-week high of, say, 75 and the cahrt looks good -- moving off the 45 bottom after a long level 'plateuu' there.
VLO processes heavy crudes very efficiently and when refinery margins start to return to normal, VLO will they will get the most bang for their barrel and outperform other R&M ( Refining & Marketing ) oitfits.
VLO also has a CAPS 5-star rating now.
Foreward EPS is 7.65 -- so it's cheap - Hot & NOW !!
Whatever happened to people who say - I'll BUY on the DIPS ? Most never do because Dips are scary like Roller Coasters & Vikings. Not So ?
Don Ferk ( aka VikingWarrior )
Posted by don ferk | May 30, 2008 8:40 PM
Unka Ankh,
"Blue Monday " June 2, 2008
In a Down & Out Market, VLO was up +4% today.
In 5 trading days VLO has gone from 47 and change to 52 & change.
Who da Man !!!! Who kan pickum good?
Maybe there's been a Quantuum Jump into Quant-Time & Spave. What would Elaine Garzarelli say ??
Mmmm. Mmmm. What's she saying that's Hot & Now ?
Don L. Ferk ( fka VikingWarrior )
Who's better than Us ?
Well, Ok, Lotsa people.
Posted by don ferk | June 2, 2008 5:17 PM