Maybe a Pine Tree

FNM in a Quant's Eye

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To some there is a major benefit to quant analysis, in that it avoids personal biases.
To others, a major complaint of quant analysis, is that it avoids qualitative analysis.

I'm a quant.
I love being a quant, and although I'll try to respect the ideas of non-quants, I'm still a quant.

So, I'll look at FNM as a quant.
I know there are qualitative stories that can be told about all sorts of mortgage backed securities.

But I'm a quant, and so I'll still give you a quant opinion.

My blogs are short as my thoughts are quickly made, and you can certainly disagree with me.
But even in the world of quant analysis, FNM might be a tricky one to analyze.
Nevertheless, here is my quick quant opinion.

Smart money funds - FNM has a high short interest. SHORT.
Value funds - FNM has a nice low price/book and price/cash flow, but it also has a a poor PE. Mixed result = SHORT.
Growth funds - FNM has some positive growth, but poor earnings growth. Mixed result = SHORT.
Quality funds - FNM has low accruals and a low F-Score. LONG.
Econ thought - I'm long on Financials, but short on 'thrifts/mortgage finance'. Mixed result = SHORT.
My valuation - $41. LONG.

My Opinion = SHORT FNM, but some 'value' or 'quality' funds might want to buy FNM.