armin's stock selection

APPL ; bullish well beyond the future

2008-04-24T13:05:42Z

Many said that Apple's numbers were so-so, but not so bad at all after the iPod maker posts better-than-expected increase in revenue and profits on strong Mac. But Investors shouldn't be too surprised though since Apple consistently is conservative with its guidance. In fact I've been bullish on AAPL stock for sometime going back several months ago when wrote "love is blind" on my blog here at SLO;

an odd opinion about apple
inspired by book:KARAOKE CAPITALISM

We have heard already people talking about apple in a language usually reserved for small, fluffy animals and close family members! If you like more soul than life, lick the buttons( Steve Jobs once said: " We made the buttons on the screen look so good you'll want to lick them" ) and wow experience you get all in one apple! If your company has to hire a new CEO, you hire Steve and you'll most likely have a true Chief Emotional Officer also. It seems like that magic apple has a synesthetic content, too..
But AAPL is about first, being fit by creating business models that are well adapted to the new business conditions and second, being sexy by building and creating emotional innovations and moods that attract and addict customers. In my opinion the company has the answers about what does the apple sound, feel, taste or smell like.
I'm not smart enough to predict whether share price will double or triple, but for sure more emotions will be added in any product they deliver so driving the sales.
Who will win, fundamental or emotional analysis?
see entry

Btw- Apple CEO Steve Jobs boasted about the company's strong results. "With over $17 billion in revenue for the first half of our fiscal year, we have strong momentum to launch some terrific new products in the coming quarters," Jobs said in a statement.
and
Apple chief financial officer Peter Oppenheimer did not appear too concerned about the economic slump. When asked if Apple is feeling any effects of the slowdown, Oppenheimer said that traffic in Apple's retail stores continue to grow.

It has been a volatile couple of months for Apple. Shares plunged earlier this year along with other tech stocks due to concerns about the slowing economy as well as fears about competition for Apple's iPhone from Research in Motion's etc In fact during those setbacks I've been buying it

Of course, would like to listen bearish opinions, if any.
In the meantime, enjoy your investing world!
Everything else is life!

Armin

Armin's shared items...TestTest

2008-04-03T12:13:48Z

HURN...Gains From Credit Crisis

2008-02-25T13:23:46Z

Update
Huron Consulting Group Inc (HURN) reported a 44 percent rise in quarterly profit, but forecast first-quarter revenue below market expectations, citing weak performance of its legal financial consulting business.
The Chicago-based financial services consulting company, however, sees profits growing between 20 to 25 percent in 2008, as it seeks to gain from a worsening credit and housing market.
The Chicago-based financial services consulting company, however, sees profits growing between 20 to 25 percent in 2008, as it seeks to gain from a worsening credit and housing market.
Huron's fourth-quarter results were helped by strong performance at its health and education consulting, and corporate consulting segments.Revenue from health and education consulting, which is the biggest contributor to the total revenue, more than doubled to about $50 million.
The company posted earnings of $11.5 million, or 63 cents a share, for the quarter, compared with $8 million, or 46 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 63 percent to $136 million. Analysts on average were expecting revenue of $136.4 million, according to Reuters Estimates.
STRONG 2008 OUTLOOK
In 2008, Huron will be working to expand more into the academic medical center space and provide a full range of services to increase efficiency to all hospitals whether troubled or healthy, Chief Executive Gary Holdren said in a conference call.
"There are no macro economic pressure that can slow our growth in the health and education segment in the next several years," Holdren said
Huron forecast first-quarter earnings of 66 cents to 70 cents a share on revenue of $142 million to $147 million.
Analysts on average were expecting earnings of 70 cents a share on revenue of $154.9 million.
For 2008, Huron sees earnings of $3.10 to $3.28 a share, on revenue of $640 million to $670 million. Analysts expect earnings of $3.11 on revenue of $644.2 million.
Huron said it expects its recently started Tokyo office to have a positive impact on the company's 2008 results.
GAINS FROM CREDIT CRISIS
The benefit from the subprime crisis is a bit delayed for Huron, but they will gain from the turmoil in days to come, Wong Kevane of JMP Securities said by phone, adding it is more a question of when than if. It is not that the business arising out of the credit market crisis is going to someone else and Huron is losing out on it, it is just that the investigations and litigations have not yet started, Holdren said.
Once it does, it will be a business driver for Huron, Holdren added.

Shares of Huron, have lost a third of their value year-to-date, and losing some 22% in my portfolio since inception( days held 210), too. I'll be holding this stock expecting gains from credit crisis and strong 2008 outlook. It seems Huron business is poised to wrestle present market environment!
Would like to hear any bearish opinions, on this stock.

DRYS...before tomorrow !

2008-02-13T18:41:08Z

Here's a trading activity on DRYS in my Astra portfolio:

all tickets for DRYS
Buy Jul 30, 2007 740 $55.65
Buy Aug 24, 2007 500 $62.7115
Buy Aug 27, 2007 230 $65.8237
Buy Oct 16, 2007 200 $122.548
Buy Oct 17, 2007 210 $118.8524
Buy Jan 2, 2008 250 $78.281
Buy Jan 9, 2008 460 $62.76
Buy Jan 15, 2008 1,300 $55.1435
Sell Feb 7, 2008 500 $70.953

active tickets for DRYS
Sell Feb 8, 2008 $99.99 400 limit
Portion of fund: 15.10%

Earnings Release: Thursday, February 14, 2008 After 4:00 P.M. EST; Conference Call and Webcast: Friday, February 15, 2008, at 10:00 A.M. EST
So let see if DRYS has been anything worth holding it. I think: yes, or maybe: am I very overconfident?

FPL/Utilities/Growth&Income stock...

2008-02-08T14:15:22Z

I really believe that time frame in the stock market investing should last well beyond any imaginable short round play and won't abandon the core principals of diversification. So, I've selected FPL Group Inc.(FPL), Utilities sector, to take part in my Astra portfolio for its income and growth potentials while broadening diversification too. Order to buy 30000 $ worth of this stock has been entered.

FPL Group, Inc. ( FPL ) with annual revenues of over $15 billion, is nationally known as a high quality, efficient, and customer-driven organization focused on energy-related products and services. With a growing presence in 27 states, it is widely recognized as one of the country's premier power companies. Its principal subsidiary, Florida Power & Light Company, serves 4.5 million customer accounts in Florida. FPL Energy, LLC, an FPL Group competitive energy subsidiary, is a leader in producing electricity from clean and renewable fuels.

The company recently announced fourth-quarter and full-year results, citing record net income for full year 2007, and that its subsidiary, FPL Energy, recorded its best year ever.

"FPL Group performed exceptionally well in 2007, driven again by the outstanding performance at FPL Energy," said Lew Hay, chairman and chief executive officer of FPL Group. "Despite some weakness in revenues at Florida Power & Light, particularly late in the year, full-year results for FPL Group exceeded the expectations we set out in the Fall of 2006."
Yield: 2.56%

IMO...Imperial Oil Ltd...Update

2008-02-06T11:48:42Z

Imperial Oil recently announced net income for 2007 of $3,188 million (or $3.41 per share). This was the highest net income in the company's history, surpassing the previous record of $3,044 million (or $3.11 a share) in 2006. Fourth quarter earnings were $886 million, (or $0.96 a share) in 2007, compared with $794 million (or $0.83 a share) in the fourth quarter of 2006.
"Overall, improving operations, a strong price environment and record production at both Cold Lake and Syncrude contributed to record earnings and shareholder returns that well exceeded the energy equity index" said Tim Hearn, the company's chairman and chief executive officer. "Furthermore, progress was made on a number of fronts during the year: the balance sheet was strengthened, and long-term investment opportunities were advanced, including regulatory approval for the proposed Kearl Oil Sands project and the addition of major acreage positions" Hearn added.
---------------------------------
Imperial Oil is one of Canada's largest corporations and a leading member of the country's petroleum industry. It is one of Canada's largest producers of crude oil and natural gas, is the country's largest petroleum refiner, and has a leading market share in petroleum products sold through a coast-to-coast supply network that includes close to 2,000 service stations.
Profit Margin (ttm): 13.71%
Operating Margin (ttm): 16.88%
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm): 14.37%
Return on Equity (ttm): 41.35%
Total Debt (mrq): 1.45B
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 0.186
--------------------------------------
Portfolio Astra: IMO Activity:
Days held: 191
Inception return: + 6.84 %

Sentiment: Buy

Microsoft/Yahoo deal/Question of the Week

2008-02-04T13:44:20Z

Is it really the Next Big Thing?
Microsoft bid aims to slow Google!
Both Microsoft and Yahoo struggling to keep up with Google, the Internet search king, but they'll get first, most probably tired of trying, second, the king won't leave its throne so easy, particularly together with tens of millions of computer users who go on line to do everything and watch anything and third is question whether this deal is really next big thing. Maybe it's not! That , because Silicon Valley favors bottom-up innovation instead of growth by acquisition. The region's brain powers are tuned to start-up that can anticipate the next big thing, rather than chase the last one.
Interesting piece comes from NYT analyzing the reasons behind Microsoft's bid and proposing that the bid is a tacit, and difficult admission that Microsoft didn't get its on line business right and that on line losses continue to mount while Google makes billions in profit.
I would leave to my imagination about what's should be the next big thing, if any!
Perhaps, synergy between Google and Apple which equals "Gooplle" !

Dry Bulk Sector Update

2008-01-31T18:53:34Z

BANGALORE, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Demand for dry bulk shipments will remain strong this year despite a recent crash in freight rates, growing fears of a U.S. recession, a weak dollar and high oil prices, chief executives of four major dry bulk carriers said at an industry forum on Wednesday.
Demand from China and other emerging economies will offset falling freight rates, the CEOs of DryShips Inc (DRYS.O: Quote, Profile, Research), Star Bulk Carriers Corp SBLK.O, TBS International (TBSI.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and Quintana Maritime Ltd (QMAR.O: Quote, Profile, Research) said at the Dry Bulk CEO Virtual Forum.
The Baltic Exchange's chief sea freight index for dry commodities .BADI, which monitors major trade routes for coal, iron ore, cement and soft commodities such as grain and sugar, lost about 47 percent, since hitting a life high of 11,039 in November last year.
George Economou of DryShips said the profitability would not be affected due to recent fall in freight rates.

"On average, a capesize vessel would be getting $90,000 a day and the expense is about $6,000 a day and there is a huge margin" he added.
Dry bulk freight rates had touched record highs last year, reaching $200,000 levels for capesize vessels, on strong demand from China and other emerging economies and also due to tight supply of vessels.
Quintana's Chief Executive Stamatis Molaris said Baltic Dry Freight Index is an indicator of spot rates only and does not reveal the future freight rate movements.
"It has nothing to do with the real and underlying fundamentals of our business in the long term and volatilities is also part of dry bulk business in the long term," he said.
Molaris also emphasized there is no change in the fundamentals and investors should not use the index to draw long-term conclusions but could use it as a short term trading instrument.
"The fundamentals are still good for 2008, 2009 and beyond and you will see new routes developing," Economou of DryShips said.
"Even if the U.S. economy slows down significantly we are not likely to see much effects in our business," Quintana's Molaris said at the conference organized by New York-based investor relations and financial communications firm Capital Link and Nasdaq International.
Besides recessionary fears, dry bulk freight rates have been hit this year by a lack of fresh cargo supply at two key global export centers and China's ongoing price negotiations for iron ore.
"The demand has been surprising us favourably in the past and we will see it again, said Chief Executive Akis Tsirigakis of Star Bulk.

OIL, DOLLAR AND SUB-PRIME
The belief that rising oil prices can eat into a shipper's margins was dispelled by Tsirigakis, who clarified that oil is not part of a shipper's cost structure.

"The oil costs are passed on to the charterers and is not part of our cost structure and hence it do not affect us," he said.

Joseph Royce of TBS International said he is continuing to see increasing exports, especially of coal and agricultural products, from the U.S., as they become cheaper due to a weaker dollar.

Royce also added that infrastructure development, which in turn propels demand for dry bulk commodities like iron ore and coal, would continue as project business is booming throughout the world.

Economou of DryShips said the sub-prime mortage-led credit crunch has not affected the companies' operations.

"The only way we are suffering from credit crunch is in the price of the stocks, which has been unnecessarily hurt.

"The fundamentals have not changed and deals are going to be there and you saw one announced yesterday," he said, refering to Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd (EXM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) $2.45 billion buyout of Quintana Maritime.

Quintana's Molaris said his company's sale to Excel Maritime is a huge confidence booster to the shipping market and that right projects will always be financed.

VESSEL SUPPLY
Dry bulk carriers have ordered more ships to meet the growing demand to ship dry bulk commodities to China, India and other emerging economies, which is expected to hit the seas in the next two to three years.
Molaris said the rise in the orderbook to build new ships was spurred by the booming demand and admitted he was sceptical about the rising supply of ships but added that shipyards are constrained with orders.

"We are currently experiencing delays in delivering ships on time from well established shipyards," he said.

Holding DRYS in my ASTRA portfolio

Same Old Facade

2008-01-29T14:46:09Z

and same stocks on board the Astra portfolio going into SLO II, which started some six months ago. It has been designed to be a quality fund including stocks with good return on investment, diversified, low turnover and almost buy and hold strategy following some rules, first, referring to asset allocation as it's diversification strategy that works. It doesn't offer a guarantee against short-term market losses, but it's an effective investment risk-management tool. Sector concentration, no matter how attractive the sector appears, no matter how compelling the arguments, is still speculation, second, not ussing short-term criteria to judge long-term results. That can lead you to unknowingly creating a very high-risk portfolio. Ultimately, consistency is more important than an occasional "home run." and third, I believe that market timing doesn't work. Moving in and out of markets based on any anticipated changes in price as opposed to fundamental changes in value is speculation -- not investing. And a final note: Investing your serious money requires discipline, patience, objectivity and a clear, documented investment policy.
We still don't know how big all the loan losses will be or how long they will go on. We don't know what the Federal Reserve will do at its meeting or emergency meeting, this week or later this year. We don't know what the next round of economic growth figures will bring, or the trend in unemployment, but it appears that volatility is one thing that seems predictable in today's stock market. Market moves more sudden and unpredictable due to unexpected economic shock like gigantic losses at banks because of irresponsible subprime loans.
Excellent reading comes from Pierre Cutler blog : Fear and panic selling! Fear and panic selling! That's all I heard last week on CNN, NPR, MSNBC, CNBC, etc. Since October, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 16.2% from its high of 14,279.96. And the past few days, oh my! The world is about to end! So say the market pundits.... And my point? The recent decline should not worry the long term investor? Why? It's simple. Long term, the market always makes investors money.

Anyways, what's a recipe?How should we behave going forward* Being "New Buffett or very close to that what he seeks and says: Picking the right person to hire on the investment side will not be easy, "We need someone genetically programmed," he specifies, "to avoid serious risks, including those never before encountered." Other talents he will be looking for, he says, are "independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior."
Again it's not that easy at all.
Have a tranquil investing and good luck!

PCP(Precision Castparts Corp.) Update

2008-01-25T12:24:10Z

Precision Castparts Corp., which makes metal components for the aerospace and automotive markets, said that its fiscal 2008 third-quarter profit jumped 55 percent, boosted by strong sales across all major segments.
The company reported income of $246.5 million, or $1.76 per share, compared with $158.7 million, or $1.15 per share, in the year-ago period.
Total sales rose 23 percent to $1.7 billion from $1.38 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2007.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, estimated earnings of $1.72 per share on sales of $1.74 billion.
Sales from the company's investment cast products segment rose 24 percent to $540.9 million in the third quarter.
Forged products sales increased 21 percent to $771.8 million, while sales from the company's fastener products division grew 24 percent to $383.9 million. Additionally, year-over-year non-aerospace shipments increased to oil and gas, chemical processing, pollution control and other markets, Precision Castparts said.

Risk to the PCP's operations are directly linked to the aerospace industry. As a result, any
slowdown in the industry could lead to a decline in demand for its products. Additionally, fluctuation in the prices of basic materials could affect PCP's business.
I believe that demand for its products will remain high.

Astra portfolio: PCP Marketocracy tracking records as of January 25, 2008.
Portion of fund: 3.24%
Days held: 179
Inception return: - 19.15%

Opinion: Buy

Astra

my funds @ Marketocracy...

Apple!

2008-01-24T11:20:38Z

Love is Blind
an odd opinion about apple
inspired by the book:KARAOKE CAPITALISM

I bought AAPL in my Astra portfolio on very first day of SLO I, will hold through the SLO II .
Activity:
Days held: 178
First trade: Jul 30, 2007
Inception return: - 1.10%

post

Apple Core Hits Wall Street

Next : No Change

2008-01-22T12:13:22Z

in my basic investment strategy and shouldn't abandon the core principals of diversification, sound values, patience, following a sound plan and maintaining a long-term perspective neither use short-term criteria to judge long-term results. Stock market investing is more about discipline, patience, objectivity and a clear, documented investment policy. and less about a market timing of any kind expecting periodically disappointments. Asset allocation is a diversification strategy that works. It doesn't offer a guarantee against short-term market losses, but it's an effective investment risk-management tool. Anyways, traditional rules of investing are still true and don't believe that even all stories about recession and recession itself is going to break it.But what's a recession? Business cycles are made up of periods of economic expansion and recessions, when the economy is contracting. The generally accepted arbiter of when U.S. recessions begin and end is the "business cycle dating committee" of the 87-year old National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-profit group based in Cambridge, Mass., that is made up of 600 academic economists. The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months," and usually visible in measures such as gross domestic product, employment, incomes and industrial production. A popular rule of thumb says a recession is two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP, although that doesn't fit some NBER-designated recessions. But recessions don't always coincide with stock drops:

more

ASTRA portfolio is going to be here as it's, diversified, low turnover almost buy and hold fund with little or no changes going forward regardless the Wall Street joining a global rout from time to time.
It's more about what and how I do and less about what you should!

Axioms: What should I do next?

2008-01-18T16:10:04Z

There is a book The Zurich Axioms, The rules of risk and reward used by generations of Swiss bankers by Max Gunther, providing a practical philosophy for the realistic management of risk, which can be followed successfully by anyone, not merely the 'experts'. Of course. it's not a kind of recipe for success, but you can enjoy reading, too. Some sayings are not necessarily bound to investing world, but sound practical. Strategy Lab Open competition seems like golf tournament, not all of us will become next Tiger Woods who is a great golfer, but, strangely, he usually hits lousy bunker shots. How has he dealt with the problem?Living in a bunker!No! By perfecting and refining his main strength, the swing. If it works like a clock, he never has to pay the bunkers a visit.
I suggest this Latin proverb:
"Quidquid agis, prudenter agas et respice finem!"
translation:
Whatever you do, do cautiously, and look to the end.

You can read more at:
marketocracy general forums Quote of the Year

What's your favorite one?

TNH Update

2008-01-16T12:22:55Z

Terra Nitrogen is the smallest agricultural company , but it shows the most interesting short-term opportunity. The stock rallied up to 140 in July and pulled back. It returned to this level in December and broke out two weeks later, completing a cup-and-handle pattern.
The rally spike hit 159 a few days later, with price then pulling back sharply. That decline undercut the breakout level for three sessions. The stock jumped higher on Friday and ran up to a new high on Monday. This sets up an excellent trade entry when price pulls back to fill the 147 to 150 gap.

larger image
Will hold this stock into SLO Round 2.
ASTRA portfolio::
TNH
Portion of fund: 8.15%
Inception return: 36.48 % (Since July31, 2007)

Shipping again..Q&A?

2008-01-15T11:03:33Z

Interesting questions from Don Ferk:

Q: ASTUK --- Colliers ---- who's the BEST play for Global COAL shipping.
I just GAVE U 2 - how's about U Gimme 1.
Fair's is Fair - all is Fair in love & War.
NOT so ?
A: Excel Maritime Carriers will be one of the many dry-bulk shippers transporting coal to quench the energy thirst. Maybe, DRYS too? All those drybulk carriers have one thing in common: Georgakis, Papatrifon, Agadakis...and other, are names of executives. Greeks know about shipping! For them the shipping is like reading tomorrow newspaper today!

Q: The Greek shipping Penenomenon , I believe, actually goes back to Ari Onassis - who bought up WWII liberty Ships & "TRAMP STEAMERS" in time to catch the Post-WWII InterNational Trade EXPlosion. He made a 'KILLING'.
TNP ( Tsakos NAV ) is also GREEHer owned & HQ'd in Greece - but 'Owners' are "American".
I just bought some DHT - Double Hull Tankers - they 'FIXED' the Dividend to a Constant QTRLY - 10~12% - that's better than Post Benny-on-the-Fritz-Ha-Ha JokerMan will PROvide to Side-Lined Cash Money Market Funds. Not So ?
PS - Do Bulk carriers need to be "RETRO-fitted to carry coal. Are there Channel Depth Re-strictions involved ? Are the fleets long-TERM leased or is there a SPOT-Market Kicker, too?

Don Lee Ferk ( NOW aka RoiRRawGnikIV - VikingWarrior spelled Back-wards- a Mirror Image Anagram, to Boot )

A: In fact, mangers in dry bulk business usually say:"We continue to selectively add new and modern vessels to our existing fleet while disposing of older and smaller vessels, with a goal towards ensuring the longevity and quality of our fleet's earning capacity. Once the recently announced sale and purchase activity has been completed by the end of the first quarter of 2008 the Company's fleet will consist of a total of 46 vessels (including 7 new buildings) with an average age of just below 9 years, well below the industry average of about 13 years. "The outlook for 2008 remains positive with fewer vessels being delivered from the shipyards and Chinese demand projected to remain strong. DryShips will have approximately 17% more fleet operating days compared to 2007 and with approximately 97% of its fleet operating days unfixed it is in a unique position to take full advantage of this opportunity."
For example: SBLK operates nine dry bulk carriers consist of two Capesize, one Panamax and six Supramax dry bulk vessels with an average age of approximately 9.5 years
Vessel's age is important in this business so a diversified fleet and newbuilding plans. DRYS expects delivery of Khamsarmax bulker by 2010, so she will be just ok with draft and load more bauxite. All eventual restrictions regarding draft or size of the vessel are well known in advance, Nowdays, shipping is more about safety, anti pollution controls, ballast water. For example if Panamax is shipping coal from Richards Bay(South Africa) to some North European port/ports and taking next voyage from New Oreleans to Japan via Panama Canal, than you can expect very strict USDA control of holds and Coast Guard for safety. If you arrive with older vessel a magtnitude of any kind of problems is going to be very high.

Will continue...
Welcome your comments!