GainSeeker

Up when the markets down and down when it's up

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I've got to preface this blog with a note that you should never take an approach to trading that you don't have the time to stay on top of. I planned an investment approach to an uncertain market that would require some attention to stay on top of, and work has prevented me from being able to actively stay on top of that approach. As they say, 'So sad, too bad...'

With that being said, my portfolio has been up in a down market, and down on the up market days. So I now sit at a NAV of $9.80. What I have been invested in is:
WBD - Still in, would have gotten out if I had been paying closer attention
DRYS - In, will be out in the morning, still showing gains, but all indicators have switched, and I see the drop continuing.
TBSI - In, see DRYS above, time to get out.
CROX - Was in, was out, in and out again, had expected them to go up on earnings, wasn't to be.
BHP - In, but will probably get out shortly, just closed above the parabolic SAR trigger point and stochastics are showing overbought.
TWM - Played the shorts for a little while, now out
MA - I debated getting in on this, thought they had reached overpriced, but got in anyway, now am out.
QID - Another short play, now out
EXPD - In, and will be buying more on Friday's open

I'm 60% in cash now, and will be watching the market and the VIX tomorrow to make some more determinations.

Back in the action - what I've been doing

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In preparation for next week's Fed meeting, I've cut out some of my current loser's on today's runup. I expect that the Fed will only do some minor adjusting (quarter point anyone?), if anything at all. I believe the expectations are way to high, and some people are going to get spanked if they don't take a defensive position.

It seems the expectation is that the Fed will cut a half point, and I really don't see how the Fed could do that without putting additional downward pressure on the dollar, and they don't want to see a currency slide. Bernanke is really walking a tightrope here, step in to help the markets and let the dollar slide, (which would come back to get the markets anyways) or stay out of the markets and keep an eye on some very real short term pain. If you watch how the dollars performed, it's been sinking in against all the major currencies as the markets have started to price in an interest rate cut. I really don't see more than a quarter point cut coming here.

So back to my plans, I'll be liquidating more nonperformer's on any rises in the next few days, possibly buying some short stocks (QID, TWM), and getting some cash ready to buy after the drop next week.

Where things are at now

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It's been about two weeks since I last blogged, my performance with my investments wasn't what I had hoped for, and I quit smoking, so quite a bit going on. Sometimes it seems like I've just been out of step with the market, but it happens to the best of us, so let's move on from there. What's been going on since my last blog?

I didn't go with the play on Lowe's - it would not have played out, so it was a prudent move not to make.

I bought 1000 shares of AFSI on 8/13, at $15.14 it's closed today at 15.95 so did alright, but am looking for a little more runup on it. However, it's a banking stock, so I'll have to keep my eyes open in case there's another shakeup - and I don't think we're out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination.

I sold ICE and 600 WBD on 8/15, ICE was getting creamed, I believe it had runup on rumor's that NYX would be buying it, and with the subprime impact expected to hit M&A's it started to be discounted for the (non?)expected buy.

I bought 300 shares of NYX on the 20th figuring that if ICE was being priced out of a potential purchase, maybe NYX would show an increase as it's been dropping pretty much since the rumors of the NYX - ICE purchase started around. But as with all my NYX purchases in this round, I'm down again on this one.

Bought BAC on the 21st, 200@51.99, was still keeping most of my portfolio in cash, but thought Bank of America would rebound from the fed action. I'm currently down a little over a dollar on this one, but everything looks bullish except the stochastics, so I'll hold onto it - it's a little position anyway.

Bought 500 shares of HGR on the 21st, and I'm also down a little on this one. The chart isn't what I would look for in my own investments, as it is looking bearish, but I really like this company from a historical perspective. Developed it's first product to assist amputees, including the founder of the company, back in the civil war, and it's still a good company today delivering products to help our wounded soldiers, so wanted to give them a plug.

So to yesterday, bought 2000 MSFT at 28.46 and 1000 JOYG at 47.96. It's time to buy into tech, corporate budgets will be getting approved and purchase orders will be coming - and MSFT has the products. JOYG has been beaten, and should be heading back towards the $60 point, although I would sell if it got around $55.

So there you have my activities, I'm still non-compliant as I'm still holding onto too much cash, but that's just the way it has to be for now. I've heard the pitches to buy aggressively on the downturn, but I don't think we've settled the downturn yet, and I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop before buying - but you can count that it will be aggressive then. In the meantime, I'll be looking for things I like, and may buy some, if I see some indicators that my outlook is wrong.

Cheers to you,
Bob

No moves for now

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Hello,

I'm still out of compliance as I haven't bought into anything more yet, just nibbling around on the edge of being 65% invested.

I think this week will zigzag back and forth based on news related to subprime and other possible problems. If we have an up day, I might look to change some positions that I hold, and on a down day, you may see me take on some bargains.

Also, I might try for a short term play on Lowe's tomorrow at the open. If I do, I'll fill you in on the history and what the plan is. I'll blog back on whether I go with that attempt. The action will be just to try a theory that I picked up on from other sources, so more detail later.

That's it for now,

Bob

What a ride it has been

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What a ride the last few days have been. A little bit frustrating from my perspective, having gone from a $10.02 valuation down to $9.66 in two and a half days. So what are my current thoughts?

My worst performer has been CROX, down over 17% since I picked it up. When I bought it, I had written that time would tell if they had finally hit a wall, well it looks like they have, but I'm not jumping out of the ship on them yet, let's see what Monday looks like.

On to TBSI, they'd been moving up, and had been a good performer for me up until the current slide, and I should have taken my gains and gotten out. Instead I waited until today, they've been giving up ground and all the indicator's have turned on them. I'm not saying that I might not get in on them again before the contest is over, but I'm out for now.

I've taken some other hits recently, but I'm starting to see some changes. Both LMT and GD had been down since I bought them, but have been up nicely today. CAG, GYMB, and HSY have all lost ground since I've bought them, but I still like them and expect to see a turnaround soon. SBUX and WBD are still in the positive column, although WBD has been giving up serious ground, I'll be watching that one closely.

ICE is down about 3% from when I bought it, and I don't like the signals I'm seeing on it right now. This may be a candidate for a Monday sale.

Overall, I'm 63% invested now, with 37% cash available. I'll be doing my homework over the weekend, watching how the asian markets do, catching the euro's before Monday's start, and seeing if all the central banker's actions have had a stabilizing effect on the markets.

Watch the trends and plan to be moving appropriately.

Recent Moves

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Bought Conagra, Hershey, Gymboree, Sold PCAR today, Reviewed my stock list last night, and PCAR just didn't seem to have anything left in it worth staying in for. This was a stock that had been reviewed as a 'safe harbor' by some analysts, and despite the negatives on the trends, I thought it could make a good return over the short term since it had dropped from a $97 range to the eighties. All I can say is 'Oops', this one got me too in my real portfolio.

So, back to the buys today. In a disorderly market, what do you go with? How about some traditional companies that have been beaten down as of late?

Conagra, well that seems to fit the mark. They've taken their hits, had to pull Peter Pan Peanut Butter from the shelves, after a salmonella problem. How does a company deal with this, simple, a 100% satisfaction guarantee for the new Peter Pan going onto the shelves. The product has name recognition and most parents won't remember why it wasn't available to begin with, but will start picking up the new and improved since they know the name. Besides, look at the charts, they've just crossed over on the MACD, Stochastics are showing bullish but overbought, but they're only running around 80% and have hit the 100% multiple times over the last year. Besides, the RSI is showing not overbought. Overall, I like this stock.

Hershey, who doesn't like chocolate? But they started the year around $52 and today they're at $48? They upped their quarterly dividend on the 7th, so some good news there. Now if we're in for a consumer correction or whatever the bears believe, who would you rather own, Hershey's or Godiva? I'm staying with tried and true. Besides, look at the chart. Parabolic SAR went to the upside, MACD is negative, but just crossed over the 9 dma (Crossovers are good), Stochastics are showing K over D but overbought, while RSI is not showing overbought, and has trended upwards. Enough said, I'm in.

Gymboree is the next one, and this is the one that I'm going in for without the same confidence. They gyrate a little too much for my comfort, and the signals cross all the time. However, I've got little children, and so do a whole lot of other people - apparently there is a baby boom going on that hasn't gotten much attention but we're seeing more schools switch to year round to accomodate the additional children / classrooms needed which aren't there. Well, Gymboree is now in the preschool market, and I think that is going to grow - significantly.
The stock has gone from $45 to $35 up and down like a teeter totter this year. And if you look at the charts, PSAR is bullish, MACD is Bullish, and neither RSI or Stochastics are showing overbought - Stoch's are showing bearish though, so a cause for my discomfort. But, I'm in as of today.