It seems the expectation is that the Fed will cut a half point, and I really don't see how the Fed could do that without putting additional downward pressure on the dollar, and they don't want to see a currency slide. Bernanke is really walking a tightrope here, step in to help the markets and let the dollar slide, (which would come back to get the markets anyways) or stay out of the markets and keep an eye on some very real short term pain. If you watch how the dollars performed, it's been sinking in against all the major currencies as the markets have started to price in an interest rate cut. I really don't see more than a quarter point cut coming here.

So back to my plans, I'll be liquidating more nonperformer's on any rises in the next few days, possibly buying some short stocks (QID, TWM), and getting some cash ready to buy after the drop next week.

I didn't go with the play on Lowe's - it would not have played out, so it was a prudent move not to make.

I bought 1000 shares of AFSI on 8/13, at $15.14 it's closed today at 15.95 so did alright, but am looking for a little more runup on it. However, it's a banking stock, so I'll have to keep my eyes open in case there's another shakeup - and I don't think we're out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination.

I sold ICE and 600 WBD on 8/15, ICE was getting creamed, I believe it had runup on rumor's that NYX would be buying it, and with the subprime impact expected to hit M&A's it started to be discounted for the (non?)expected buy.

I bought 300 shares of NYX on the 20th figuring that if ICE was being priced out of a potential purchase, maybe NYX would show an increase as it's been dropping pretty much since the rumors of the NYX - ICE purchase started around. But as with all my NYX purchases in this round, I'm down again on this one.

Bought BAC on the 21st, 200@51.99, was still keeping most of my portfolio in cash, but thought Bank of America would rebound from the fed action. I'm currently down a little over a dollar on this one, but everything looks bullish except the stochastics, so I'll hold onto it - it's a little position anyway.

Bought 500 shares of HGR on the 21st, and I'm also down a little on this one. The chart isn't what I would look for in my own investments, as it is looking bearish, but I really like this company from a historical perspective. Developed it's first product to assist amputees, including the founder of the company, back in the civil war, and it's still a good company today delivering products to help our wounded soldiers, so wanted to give them a plug.

So to yesterday, bought 2000 MSFT at 28.46 and 1000 JOYG at 47.96. It's time to buy into tech, corporate budgets will be getting approved and purchase orders will be coming - and MSFT has the products. JOYG has been beaten, and should be heading back towards the $60 point, although I would sell if it got around $55.

So there you have my activities, I'm still non-compliant as I'm still holding onto too much cash, but that's just the way it has to be for now. I've heard the pitches to buy aggressively on the downturn, but I don't think we've settled the downturn yet, and I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop before buying - but you can count that it will be aggressive then. In the meantime, I'll be looking for things I like, and may buy some, if I see some indicators that my outlook is wrong.

Cheers to you,
Bob

I'm still out of compliance as I haven't bought into anything more yet, just nibbling around on the edge of being 65% invested.

I think this week will zigzag back and forth based on news related to subprime and other possible problems. If we have an up day, I might look to change some positions that I hold, and on a down day, you may see me take on some bargains.

Also, I might try for a short term play on Lowe's tomorrow at the open. If I do, I'll fill you in on the history and what the plan is. I'll blog back on whether I go with that attempt. The action will be just to try a theory that I picked up on from other sources, so more detail later.

That's it for now,

Bob

My worst performer has been CROX, down over 17% since I picked it up. When I bought it, I had written that time would tell if they had finally hit a wall, well it looks like they have, but I'm not jumping out of the ship on them yet, let's see what Monday looks like.

On to TBSI, they'd been moving up, and had been a good performer for me up until the current slide, and I should have taken my gains and gotten out. Instead I waited until today, they've been giving up ground and all the indicator's have turned on them. I'm not saying that I might not get in on them again before the contest is over, but I'm out for now.

I've taken some other hits recently, but I'm starting to see some changes. Both LMT and GD had been down since I bought them, but have been up nicely today. CAG, GYMB, and HSY have all lost ground since I've bought them, but I still like them and expect to see a turnaround soon. SBUX and WBD are still in the positive column, although WBD has been giving up serious ground, I'll be watching that one closely.

ICE is down about 3% from when I bought it, and I don't like the signals I'm seeing on it right now. This may be a candidate for a Monday sale.

Overall, I'm 63% invested now, with 37% cash available. I'll be doing my homework over the weekend, watching how the asian markets do, catching the euro's before Monday's start, and seeing if all the central banker's actions have had a stabilizing effect on the markets.

Watch the trends and plan to be moving appropriately.

So, back to the buys today. In a disorderly market, what do you go with? How about some traditional companies that have been beaten down as of late?

Conagra, well that seems to fit the mark. They've taken their hits, had to pull Peter Pan Peanut Butter from the shelves, after a salmonella problem. How does a company deal with this, simple, a 100% satisfaction guarantee for the new Peter Pan going onto the shelves. The product has name recognition and most parents won't remember why it wasn't available to begin with, but will start picking up the new and improved since they know the name. Besides, look at the charts, they've just crossed over on the MACD, Stochastics are showing bullish but overbought, but they're only running around 80% and have hit the 100% multiple times over the last year. Besides, the RSI is showing not overbought. Overall, I like this stock.

Hershey, who doesn't like chocolate? But they started the year around $52 and today they're at $48? They upped their quarterly dividend on the 7th, so some good news there. Now if we're in for a consumer correction or whatever the bears believe, who would you rather own, Hershey's or Godiva? I'm staying with tried and true. Besides, look at the chart. Parabolic SAR went to the upside, MACD is negative, but just crossed over the 9 dma (Crossovers are good), Stochastics are showing K over D but overbought, while RSI is not showing overbought, and has trended upwards. Enough said, I'm in.

Gymboree is the next one, and this is the one that I'm going in for without the same confidence. They gyrate a little too much for my comfort, and the signals cross all the time. However, I've got little children, and so do a whole lot of other people - apparently there is a baby boom going on that hasn't gotten much attention but we're seeing more schools switch to year round to accomodate the additional children / classrooms needed which aren't there. Well, Gymboree is now in the preschool market, and I think that is going to grow - significantly.
The stock has gone from $45 to $35 up and down like a teeter totter this year. And if you look at the charts, PSAR is bullish, MACD is Bullish, and neither RSI or Stochastics are showing overbought - Stoch's are showing bearish though, so a cause for my discomfort. But, I'm in as of today.

I covered NYX and ICE in my previous posting, now I'm questioning whether it was too soon to get into them. I still like what looks like NYX's MACD looking to crossover, so I'll probably hold onto that, but I'll be watching ICE closely, and may close out and take the hit.

Onto my other buys, I went with DOW, even though the MACD crossed into negative territory, the stochastics look good, and the MACD went negative only with the recent market downturn. The trend looked like it would carry them over $46 and I think that they can build back to it.

WBD is a stock I've followed for a while, and it has consistently been trending up for the past year. This is a mixed bag for me, negative MACD, good Stochastics, and a mixed RSI that appears to be trending up. I've gone with this one based on it's past performance, generally when it has risen by $2.00 or more on one day, it has gone even higher on the next. We'll have to wait and see if it keeps the trend.

PCAR got hammered on earnings and continued to fall. Stochastics are showing bullish and also oversold, RSI looks like it's turning up, and the trend looks like this should be a $90 stock, although it has been even higher. I'll wait to see how this plays.

LMT has a positive MACD, but negative stochastics, but also showing as oversold. However, we are in a war, I like defense stocks, the trend shows it could reach $104 and it's been as high as $107 recently. And although I didn't know it when I bought the stock, it was announced tonight that they've just been awarded a $5 billion contract for the F22 raptor.

GD has been trending towards $82, appears oversold, doesn't fit my normal pattern for what I look for, but I took the chance that it was undervalued after coming off a high of $84. It also just got government contracts awarded tonight, I'll have to watch this one tomorrow.

Finally, CROX, where will this stock stop? I've been in and out of it for a year in my own accounts, and should have just stayed in. They've continued to ride high in the recent downturns, and I just figured, why not go for the ride. Time will tell if they've finally hit a wall or if they'll head upwards again.

Cheers to you,

Similarly, I look at the hit that ICE took last week, and it is starting to rebuild value from it. I think this stock has the potential to hit 170, and will look to hold onto it unless something disruptive occurs - again.

I'll add more comments on my other opening picks tomorrow.

Also, I look for stocks that have recently had the MACD cross over the 9dma, or that look to be doing so.

With the losses over the past week prior to the start of this contest, I think there will be some good buying opportunities to be had. However, I don't believe that all of the subprime fallout has been priced into the market yet, so you can count on me to stay away from banks and brokerages in the initial week of the competition.

Good luck to all, and let the games begin!