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August's Rational Exuberance Update
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Last time I posted it came as a complete surprise that the second round was over. Since it started at the beginning of February the contest would end at the beginning of August but it seems as if people are still posting and posting at least once a month gets me off my weekend butt. I outlined my strategies in my original post. This is just a monthly size and style allocation update. Even though I careless if no one follows my recommendations I know a lot people do. Buys: Foreign (EFA) SP500 Growth (IVW) SP400 Growth (IJK) SP600 Growth (IJT) Emerging (EEM) Sells: SP500 Value ( IVE) SP600 Value(IJS) Yours Truly, Cowboy Dickrdoo | ||
Tri-monthly Sector Update 7/18/08
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Just like the Big Audio Dynamite Bottom Line song goes: The horses are on the track. The horses are on the track. The horses are on the track. My Barney Google Sector Trifecta Fund needed to be cleaned up and it's back to be silly because otherwise investing is so mundane. Please sing a long with me. Barney Google, with the goo-goo-goo-ga-ly eyes. Barney Google bet his horses would win the trifecta prize. When the horses ran that day, Barney's horses ran the other way. Barney Google, with the goo-goo-goo-ga-lay eyes had a wife three times his size. When Barney Google's horses ran the other way, she divorced him. Now Barney Google with the goo-goo-goo-ga-lay eyes lives with his horses The Sector Contestants are: Oil & Gas Service (PXJ) "Pipeline": 13.39 FPE, 18.19 5YREG, 1.36 PEG I'm going to bet 29% on Pipeline to win. Bet 24% on Accidental Collision and Flying Saucer to place. Bet 23% on Nurse Ratched to show. In other words I think Oil & Gas Services, Insurance, Health Services and Semiconductors are the best sectors to over weight and I'm dead serious! Over close to last 3 years my sector trifecta fund has beaten the SP500 by 14% on an annual basis so I'm start think I'm on to something. Yours truly, Cowboy Dickrdoo | ||
July's Rational Exuberance Updated: European Vacation
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I outlined my strategies in my original post. This is just a monthly size and style allocation update. Even though I careless if no one follows my recommendations I know a lot people do and changes need to be made this month. I got my overall monthly numbers but did not get my more detailed quarterly numbers but those are going to change my opinion that it's time to get 40% of your monies outside of US market which is easier said than done. One of the problems I have is picking foreign stocks. ADRs aren't always representative of a foreign stock because they perform like their domestic market counterparts. Finding all the evaluating criteria is more difficult consequently copping out with ETFs is easier. Foreign (EFA) SP500 Growth (IVW) SP400 Growth (IJK) SP600 Growth (IJT) Emerging (EEM) Sells: SP500 Value ( IVE) SP600 Value(IJS) I have to buy more foreign stocks. The cop out ETFs are easy: EFA,PDN,PEH,EEM. The other foreign stocks I'm eyeballing are TEO,TNE,TSM,AGU,BAP Yours Truly, | ||
Ego Tripping at the Gates of Demographic Hell
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2008 is the year when the US market's demographics go from good to bad. The US market's demographics will probably not start getting better again until 2020. 2010 to 2020 will be Europe's demographic hellish period and their hellish period will be more hellish than our. From 2020 to 2030 China is going to be an economic disaster. Demographically Brazil looks good for the next 20 years. Thus far this year US market is down along with most of the other markets but Brazil is up. I'm down this year so it is silly for me to be thrilled with my performance thus far this year but I am. Every quarter all the compliant marketocracy funds are ranked and I'm looking forward to the next ranking period. According to my all the virtual and real mutual funds equal the total market and on average standard deviation bell curve reckoning my main funds are going to do well. My Rational Exuberance guesses are: My Sector Trifecta guesses are: Although Mr. Kam and company haven't been ranking MOFQX my guesses are: If this strategy lab Candy Mountain ETF fund was compliant my guesses are: Had I put all my real and virtual monies in my mattress and taken a nap for the last year my guess are: The next 12 years are going to be tough. Yours Truly, Cowboy Dickrdoo | ||
June's Rational Exuberance Updated
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I outlined my strategies in my original post. This is just a monthly size and style allocation update. Even though I careless if no one follows my recommendations I know a lot people do. Not much as changed from last month except for my Strategy Lab Fund has real name (Candy Mountain ETF Fund) and a theme song like all my other funds so please sing a long with the Beat Farmers Gone but not forgotten Country Dick Montana One evening as the sun went down and the market fire was burning In the Big Rock Candy Mountains there's a land that's fair and bright In the Big Rock Candy Mountains all the caps have wooden pegs In the Big Rock Candy Mountains you never change your stocks In the Big Rock Candy Mountains the jails are made of tin June's Rational Exuberance Size and Style Allocations Bond range: 4.60% to 5.1% SP400 Growth (IJK) SP600 Growth (IJT) Foreign (EFA) Sells: SP500 Value ( IVE) SP600 Value(IJS) Emerging (EEM) To summarize my may rangy recommendations, if the 10 year bond rate increases significantly move out of small cap growth stocks into large cap growth stocks and if you're in range stay put. Emerging markets are getting relatively cheaper but not cheap enough to buy. Yours Truly, Cowboy Dickrdoo | ||
May's Rational Exuberance Updated
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First off congratulations to Mr. Kam and company. Marketocracy Masters 100 is now a 4 star mutual fund. I outlined my strategies in my original post. This is just a monthly size and style allocation update. Even though I careless if no one follows my recommendations I know a lot people do. Unfortunately almost every time I blog I remember something important I forgot to mention in previous blogs. I haven't been using the actual 10 year bond rates when coming up with my size and style allocations. I have been starting with the actual 10 year bond rate and then just bumping it up until I only have 4 or so boxes. From now on my monthly size and style recommendations will be ranges based upon a 10 year bond rate range. May's Rational Exuberance Size and Style Allocations Bond range: 4.40% to 5.4% SP400 Growth (IJK) SP600 Growth (IJT) Foreign (EFA) Sells: SP500 Value ( IVE) SP600 Value(IJS) Emerging (EEM) To summarize my may rangy recommendations, if the 10 year bond rate increases significantly move out of small cap growth stocks into large cap growth stocks and if you're in range stay put. Coming up next a 3-1/2 month back check of size and style, sector and demographic recommendations and maybe a Marketocracy Master grading update but maybe almost always means no. Yours truly, Cowboy Dickrdoo | ||
