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March's Rational Exuberance Updated
I have PE values but I don't know how or why and I wish they were better. In my previous post I mentioned Barra.com. Unfortunately I haven't visited that site in couple years. I may not get every thing right but from what I understand a few years ago Citigroup took over the Standard and Poors growth and value indexes, created 6 new indexes and changed the simple higher or lower than average book value criteria of what is a growth and value. It was like a bunch of clueless knuckleheads just crap all over Cowboy Dickrdoo's good thing and made 20 years of data suspect. For about a year or so I could not find monthly updates and none too happy about that the change in value/growth criteria. I was lost at sea and no one was going to pay for it!
About a year ago I found my S&P growth and value at www2.standardandpoors.com but not in the wonderful barra.com monthly updated form. The overall large, mid, and small cap index PE values are updated monthly. Whereas the value and growth index PE values are updated quarterly usually about 6 months behind. For example the last value and growth PE values update was 3rd quarter of 2007 or 9/30/07. This was a big improvement over being lost at sea but it's just not as good as it was. My monthly PE values are guesses especially the foreign and emerging PE values. I compare the overall (75% IVV, 18% IJH, 7% IJR) Morningstar forward PE value to the EEM and EFA Morningstar forward PE value and translate into S&P PE values that aren't the same as previous year earnings. I have PE values but I don't know how or why and I just try my best to get them right.
Buys:
SP500 Growth (IVW)
Avg. PEx(10yr-.0048)=1.35
Present PE: 18.28
Average PE: 27.54 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 21.34%
SP400 Growth (IJK)
Avg. PEx(10yr-.0048)=1.28
Present PE: 18.98
Average PE: 25.97 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 37.1%
SP600 Growth (IJT)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=1.18
Present PE: 19.37
Average PE: 23.95 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 24.26%
Foreign (EFA)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.97
Present PE: 16.31
Average PE: 19.73 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 17.42%
SP500 Value ( IVE)
Avg. PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.84
Present PE: 17.29
Average PE: 17.07 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 2.47%
Sells:
SP400 Value (IJJ)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.79
Present PE: 18.16
Average PE: 16.17 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0.0%
SP600 Value(IJS)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.78
Present PE: 20.98
Average PE: 15.82 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0.0%
Emerging (EEM)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.76
Present PE: 18.56
Average PE: 15.48 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0.0%
April's Rational Exuberance Updated
I outlined my strategies in my original post. This is just an allocation update. More than usual has change.
April's Rational Exuberance Size and Style Allocations
Buys:
SP500 Growth (IVW)
Avg. PEx(10yr-.0048)=1.35
Present PE: 21..26
Average PE: 27.54 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 27.21% (an add of about 7%)
SP400 Growth (IJK)
Avg. PEx(10yr-.0048)=1.28
Present PE: 21,62
Average PE: 25.97 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 42.94% (an add of about 5.5%)
SP600 Growth (IJT)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=1.18
Present PE: 22.62
Average PE: 23.95 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 14.86% (around a 10% deduct)
Foreign (EFA)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.97
Present PE: 18.26
Average PE: 19.73 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 14.97% (around a 2.5% deduct)
Sells:
SP500 Value ( IVE)
Avg. PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.84
Present PE: 19.91
Average PE: 17.07 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0%
SP400 Value (IJJ)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.79
Present PE: 20.19
Average PE: 16.17 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0.0%
SP600 Value(IJS)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.78
Present PE: 24.7
Average PE: 15.82 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0.0%
Emerging (EEM)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.76
Present PE: 22.09
Average PE: 15.48 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0.0%
Coming up May 1 is my sector allocations and demographic updates and I might plug the MOFQX April 15
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