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April 2008 Archives

March and April Allocation Updates

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March's Rational Exuberance Updated

I have PE values but I don't know how or why and I wish they were better. In my previous post I mentioned Barra.com. Unfortunately I haven't visited that site in couple years. I may not get every thing right but from what I understand a few years ago Citigroup took over the Standard and Poors growth and value indexes, created 6 new indexes and changed the simple higher or lower than average book value criteria of what is a growth and value. It was like a bunch of clueless knuckleheads just crap all over Cowboy Dickrdoo's good thing and made 20 years of data suspect. For about a year or so I could not find monthly updates and none too happy about that the change in value/growth criteria. I was lost at sea and no one was going to pay for it!

About a year ago I found my S&P growth and value at www2.standardandpoors.com but not in the wonderful barra.com monthly updated form. The overall large, mid, and small cap index PE values are updated monthly. Whereas the value and growth index PE values are updated quarterly usually about 6 months behind. For example the last value and growth PE values update was 3rd quarter of 2007 or 9/30/07. This was a big improvement over being lost at sea but it's just not as good as it was. My monthly PE values are guesses especially the foreign and emerging PE values. I compare the overall (75% IVV, 18% IJH, 7% IJR) Morningstar forward PE value to the EEM and EFA Morningstar forward PE value and translate into S&P PE values that aren't the same as previous year earnings. I have PE values but I don't know how or why and I just try my best to get them right.

Buys:

SP500 Growth (IVW)
Avg. PEx(10yr-.0048)=1.35
Present PE: 18.28
Average PE: 27.54 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 21.34%

SP400 Growth (IJK)
Avg. PEx(10yr-.0048)=1.28
Present PE: 18.98
Average PE: 25.97 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 37.1%

SP600 Growth (IJT)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=1.18
Present PE: 19.37
Average PE: 23.95 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 24.26%

Foreign (EFA)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.97
Present PE: 16.31
Average PE: 19.73 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 17.42%

SP500 Value ( IVE)
Avg. PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.84
Present PE: 17.29
Average PE: 17.07 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 2.47%


Sells:
SP400 Value (IJJ)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.79
Present PE: 18.16
Average PE: 16.17 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0.0%

SP600 Value(IJS)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.78
Present PE: 20.98
Average PE: 15.82 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0.0%

Emerging (EEM)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.76
Present PE: 18.56
Average PE: 15.48 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0.0%

April's Rational Exuberance Updated

I outlined my strategies in my original post. This is just an allocation update. More than usual has change.

April's Rational Exuberance Size and Style Allocations

Buys:
SP500 Growth (IVW)
Avg. PEx(10yr-.0048)=1.35
Present PE: 21..26
Average PE: 27.54 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 27.21% (an add of about 7%)

SP400 Growth (IJK)
Avg. PEx(10yr-.0048)=1.28
Present PE: 21,62
Average PE: 25.97 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 42.94% (an add of about 5.5%)

SP600 Growth (IJT)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=1.18
Present PE: 22.62
Average PE: 23.95 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 14.86% (around a 10% deduct)

Foreign (EFA)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.97
Present PE: 18.26
Average PE: 19.73 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 14.97% (around a 2.5% deduct)

Sells:

SP500 Value ( IVE)
Avg. PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.84
Present PE: 19.91
Average PE: 17.07 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0%

SP400 Value (IJJ)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.79
Present PE: 20.19
Average PE: 16.17 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0.0%

SP600 Value(IJS)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.78
Present PE: 24.7
Average PE: 15.82 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0.0%

Emerging (EEM)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.76
Present PE: 22.09
Average PE: 15.48 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0.0%

Coming up May 1 is my sector allocations and demographic updates and I might plug the MOFQX April 15


Plugging MOFQX

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It not tax day it's Marketocracy Masters 100 day. It's been three years since MOFQX made the 250 stocks in lieu of 1000 stocks change and revamped it's M100 selection process and/or criteria and/or weighting. Since that time MOFQX has done very well.

From April 15, 2005 to April 15, 2008 without taking fees in consideration:

MOFQX +47.90%
Mid-Cap Stocks +33.08%
Total Market +27.48%
Large Cap Stock +26.58%
Small Cap Stocks +22.74%


MOFQX is general fund that is categorized as a Mid Cap Blend Fund and over past three years MOFQX has beaten the total market on 3.58% annualized basis taking fee into consideration over the past 3 years. The Marketocracy Masters 100 Fund has beat around 90% of it's Mid-Cap Blend Fund competitors and probably about 95% or more of all the mutual funds. The present M100 has a prior 3 year average of 97.7% with a standard deviation of 4.5% so if the MOFQX beats 95% of all the other funds over the next 3 years that will only be par for the course. More importantly there is a 99% chance that MOFQX out perform 84% of the other mutual funds. Par for the course for other mutual funds is 50% and there is 1% chance that another mutual fund will under perform 99% of the other mutual funds. MOFQX performance over the past three years was no fluke and nor will it next 3 years performance be one.

At present Marketocracy Masters 100 is only a 3 star fund but in the next few years it going to be a 5 star fund worth buying when it was only a 3 star fund. The intuitive odds are stacked in MOFQX's favor.

Yours Truly,

Cowboy Dickrdoo

Coming up next Sector and International Demographic allocations May first

Sector Update

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My Barney Google Sector Trifecta Fund needed to be cleaned up so my sector update came a little early and it's back to being silly.

Barney Google, with the goo-goo-goo-ga-ly eyes. Barney Google bet his horses would win the trifecta prize. When the horses ran that day, Barney's horses ran the other way. Barney Google, with the goo-goo-goo-ga-lay eyes had a wife three times his size. When Barney Google's horses ran the other way, she divorced him. Now Barney Google with the goo-goo-goo-ga-lay eyes lives with his horses

The Sector Contestants are:

Oil & Gas Service (PXJ) "Pipeline": 1.72 PEG
Insurance (PIC) " Accidental Collision ": 1.37 PEG
Financials (PFI) "Bull nuts": 1.21 PEG
Energy (PXI) "Old Jed": 1.19 PEG
Energy Exploration & Production (PXE) "Drillbit": 1.07 PEG
Healthcare Services (PTJ) "Nurse Ratched": 1.03 PEG
Building & Construction (PKB) "Where's Bob": 1.03 PEG
Semiconductors (PSI) "Flying Saucer": 1.03 PEG
Technology (PTF) "Moby Dolby ": 0.97 PEG
Hardware & Consumer Electronics (PHW) "Ear plug": 0.97 PEG
Basic Materials (PYZ) "Silverback": 0.97 PEG
Retail (PMR) "Paris Clinton": 0.96 PEG
Consumer Discretionary (PEZ) "Hand Bag": 0.95 PEG
Industrials (PRN) "Boilermaker": 0.94 PEG
Pharmaceuticals (PJP) "Pill Popper": 0.92 PEG
Healthcare (PTH) "St. Lucrative": 0.91 PEG
Networking (PXQ) "Ready Serve": 0.89 PEG
Software (PSJ) "User Friendly": 0.88 PEG
The market to Beat (Total Market): 0.87 PEG
Leisure & Entertainment (PEJ) "Love Boat": 0.86 PEG
Media (PBS) "Katie's Calf": 0.82 PEG
Telecommunications & Wireless (PTE) "Social Lion": 0.82 PEG
Utilities (PUI) "Three Miler": 0.74 PEG
Biotechnology & Genome (PBE) "Bob New Heart": 0.71 PEG
Banking (PJB) "Overdraft": 0.68 PEG
Consumer Staples (PSL) "Bung Wad": 0.65 PEG
Food & Beverage (PBJ) "Six Pack": 0.59 PEG

I'm going to bet 27% on Pipeline to win. Bet 22% on Accidental Collision to place. Bet 17% apiece on Nurse Ratched, Where's Bob, and Flying Saucer. In other words I think Oil & Gas Services, Insurance, Health Services, Building & Construction and Semiconductors are the best sectors to over weight.

My demographic kid fund also need to be clean up as well so my international demographic recommendations are on their way.

Yours Truly,

Cowboy Dickrdoo

Mid-April's Rational Exuberance Size and Style Allocations

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In my March/April update I talked a little bit about how my PE values aren't as good as they used to be. I just visited Standard and Poors web site and found the fourth quarter update PE values which changed my allocation numbers.

Buys:
SP500 Growth (IVW)
Avg. PEx(10yr-.0048)=1.35
Present PE: 18.13
Average PE: 27.54 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 37.38% (an add of about 10%)

SP400 Growth (IJK)
Avg. PEx(10yr-.0048)=1.28
Present PE: 21.89
Average PE: 25.97 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 35.22% (a deduct of about 7%)

SP600 Growth (IJT)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=1.18
Present PE: 22.54
Average PE: 23.95 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 15.89% (little change)

Foreign (EFA)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.97
Present PE: 18.76
Average PE: 19.73 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 11.50% (around a 2.5% deduct)

Sells:

SP500 Value ( IVE)
Avg. PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.84
Present PE: 24.12
Average PE: 17.07 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0%

SP400 Value (IJJ)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.79
Present PE: 21.47
Average PE: 16.17 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0.0%

SP600 Value(IJS)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.78
Present PE: 25.75
Average PE: 15.82 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0.0%

Emerging (EEM)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.76
Present PE: 22.86
Average PE: 15.48 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0.0%

Coming up International Demographic update and May's updated rational exuberance numbers around the 10th.

Thank you

Cowboy Dickrdoo

Demographic Update

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My international demographic fund needed some cleaning up. Here are my international allocations:

Singapore (EWS)
13.57 FPE/20.45 EG
1.51 PEG
Allocation: 23%

South Korea (EWY)
11.12 FPE/15.32 EG
1.38 PEG
Allocation: 19%

Austria (EWO)
10.54 FPE/14.46 EG
1.37 PEG
Allocation: 18%

Thailand (TF)
11.03 FPE/11.44 EG
1.04 PEG
Allocation: 11%

Hong Kong (EWH)
16.13 FPE/16.14 EG
1 PEG
Allocation: 10%

Germany (EWG)
11.36 FPE/10.67 EG
0.94 PEG
Allocation: 9%

Brazil (EWZ)
12.88 FPE/9.76 EG
0.76 PEG
Allocation: 6%

China (FXI)
18.87 FPE/13.65 EG
0.72 PEG
Allocation: 4%

Just like my sector allocations these international allocations are updated once every 3 or 4 months.

To summary where my CDETF fund should be at:

23% Large Cap Growth
22% Mid Cap Growth
10% Small Cap Growth
7% Developed Foreign
6% Oil and Gas Services
5% Insurance
4% Health Care Services
4% Singapore
3% Semiconductors
3% Building and Construction
3% South Korea
3% Austria
2% Thailand
2% Hong Kong
1% Germany
1% Brazil
1% China

Yours Truly

Cowboy Dickrdoo