cowboy dickrdoo

June's Rational Exuberance Updated

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I outlined my strategies in my original post. This is just a monthly size and style allocation update. Even though I careless if no one follows my recommendations I know a lot people do. Not much as changed from last month except for my Strategy Lab Fund has real name (Candy Mountain ETF Fund) and a theme song like all my other funds so please sing a long with the Beat Farmers Gone but not forgotten Country Dick Montana

One evening as the sun went down and the market fire was burning
Down the track came a hobo hiking, and he said "boys
I'm not turning "I'm headed for a land that's far away, beside the crystal fountains
"So come with me, we'll go and see the Big Rock Candy Mountains"

In the Big Rock Candy Mountains there's a land that's fair and bright
Where the hand-outs grow on bushes and you sleep out every night
Where the boxcars all are empty and the sun shines every day
On the birds and the bees and the cigarette trees
The lemonade springs where the bluebird sings
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains

In the Big Rock Candy Mountains all the caps have wooden pegs
And the bulldogs all have rubber teeth and the bears lay soft-boiled eggs
The farmer's trees are full of fruit and the barns are full of hay
Oh I'm bound to go where there ain't no snow
Where the market don't fall, the wind don't blow
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains

In the Big Rock Candy Mountains you never change your stocks
And the little streams of alcohol come a-trickling down the rocks
The brakemen have to tip their hats and the market bulls are blind
There's a lake of stew and of whiskey, too
You can paddle all around 'em in a big canoo
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains

In the Big Rock Candy Mountains the jails are made of tin
And you can walk right out again as soon as you are in
There ain't no short-handled shovels, no axes, saws or picks
I'm a-goin' to stay where you sleep all day
Where they hung the jerk that invented work
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains

I'll see you all this comin' fall in the Big Rock Candy Mountains

June's Rational Exuberance Size and Style Allocations

Bond range: 4.60% to 5.1%
Buys:
SP500 Growth (IVW)
Avg. PEx(10yr-.0048)=1.35
Present PE: 19.23
Average PE: 27.54 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 32.8% to 44.76%

SP400 Growth (IJK)
Avg. PEx(10yr-.0048)=1.28
Present PE: 22.97
Average PE: 25.97 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 35.48% to 34.28%

SP600 Growth (IJT)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=1.18
Present PE: 24.55
Average PE: 23.95 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 13.72% to 5.24%

Foreign (EFA)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.97
Present PE: 18.56
Average PE: 19.73 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 17.98% to 15.72%

Sells:

SP500 Value ( IVE)
Avg. PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.84
Present PE: 24.49
Average PE: 17.07 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0%

SP400 Value (IJJ)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.79
Present PE: 22.11
Average PE: 16.17 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0.0%

SP600 Value(IJS)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.78
Present PE: 27.61
Average PE: 15.82 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0.0%

Emerging (EEM)
PEx(10yr-.0048)=0.76
Present PE: 19.94
Average PE: 15.48 (5.34% 10yr Bond)
Allocation: 0.0%

To summarize my may rangy recommendations, if the 10 year bond rate increases significantly move out of small cap growth stocks into large cap growth stocks and if you're in range stay put. Emerging markets are getting relatively cheaper but not cheap enough to buy.

Yours Truly,

Cowboy Dickrdoo

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Ego Tripping at the Gates of Demographic Hell

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2008 is the year when the US market's demographics go from good to bad. The US market's demographics will probably not start getting better again until 2020. 2010 to 2020 will be Europe's demographic hellish period and their hellish period will be more hellish than our. From 2020 to 2030 China is going to be an economic disaster. Demographically Brazil looks good for the next 20 years. Thus far this year US market is down along with most of the other markets but Brazil is up. I'm down this year so it is silly for me to be thrilled with my performance thus far this year but I am.

Every quarter all the compliant marketocracy funds are ranked and I'm looking forward to the next ranking period. According to my all the virtual and real mutual funds equal the total market and on average standard deviation bell curve reckoning my main funds are going to do well.

My Rational Exuberance guesses are:
1 Month (STDEV=2.37%) Rank: 94%
3 Month (STDEV=4.88%) Rank: 95%
6 Month (STDEV=6.83%) Rank: 87%
1 Year (STDEV=11.19%) Rank: 78%
5 Year (STDEV=41%) Rank: 96%

My Sector Trifecta guesses are:
1 Month (STDEV=2.37%) Rank: 97%
3 Month (STDEV=4.88%) Rank: 99%
6 Month (STDEV=6.83%) Rank: 98%
1 Year (STDEV=11.19%) Rank: 85%
2 Year (STDEV=17.74%) Rank: 95%

Although Mr. Kam and company haven't been ranking MOFQX my guesses are:
1 Month (STDEV=2.37%) Rank: 90%
3 Month (STDEV=4.88%) Rank: 97%
6 Month (STDEV=6.83%) Rank: 96%
1 Year (STDEV=11.19%) Rank: 79%
2 Year (STDEV=17.74%) Rank: 79%
3 Year (STDEV=27.91%) Rank: 86%

If this strategy lab Candy Mountain ETF fund was compliant my guesses are:
1 Month (STDEV=2.37%) Rank: 84%
3 Month (STDEV=4.88%) Rank: 91%

Had I put all my real and virtual monies in my mattress and taken a nap for the last year my guess are:
1 Month (STDEV=2.37%) Rank: 100%
3 Month (STDEV=4.88%) Rank: 66%
6 Month (STDEV=6.83%) Rank: 96%
1 Year (STDEV=11.19%) Rank: 92%

The next 12 years are going to be tough.

Yours Truly,

Cowboy Dickrdoo

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