Vad Yazvinski
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"Do what you can, with what you have, where you are" T.Roosevelt
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We now only have one week left until this first SLO contest is finished and I thought that now might be a great time to look back at the events of the last five months. My portfolio has been fluctuating around the 30-40% return range for a most of the last two months and absent any major events during the next three trading days I should finish the year in the Top 5... All-in-all I am extremely happy with how well my portfolio performed as well as how enjoyable the whole experience has been for me so far. I look forward to continuing with my blogging and stock picking in 2008 :) Anyway, I spent most of my morning downloading all the available data on my performance and tried to identify the the causes of my largest hits and misses. The amount of data that Marketocracy can provide is truly phenomenal and it will actually even get better once the fund hits the 6 months compliant mark as some of the advanced reports need 6 months worth of data to become useful...I will detail what I found out in the next post but now I want to cover "the softer part" of this contest... Let's start with a well known fact- in a short 6 months contest like this it is very difficult to separate the true investment talent from pure luck. "Get rich quick" kind of mentality is almost a must if you are trying to simply win by earning the highest return possible. That means that outsized bets, momentum darlings and/or sector funds should theoretically end up with a highest return every time. The math is simple-at each point of the contest timeline there will be something that is "super hot" in the market- and being invested in just these few hot stocks or in one sector means that out of 500+ people there will be at least several, whose concentration will fall on exactly what is hot at that moment. Today it is solar and thus not surprisingly many of the top funds are heavily into the alternative energy. But let's look back- during the first month and a half- sub prime ruled the SLO. Both I and "Demonhawk" Andrew have battled for the first place week after week. Then came the time of China- if you looked at most of Top 20 funds in September/October- they have been very heavily exposed to the Asian markets. Then came the time of BIDU, GRMN and AAPL, dry shippers followed ("Magickniner" made it into the TOP 5). We also had periods when Top 50 has been dominated by materials, agriculture etc... We even had three weeks when many of the Top funds have gone Short :) Now came the time of Solar energy- and while I confident it is temporarry-by coincidence it came right at the end and thus many of the previous best performing posters that have been in the Top 10 for much longer periods than the current leaders, have been now completely forgotten... And it is not unusual - it is purely human of us to think that the last good movie we watched is best one we ever seen, that this latest hot electronic device we bought is something out of this world and there was nothing with an impact on the society before... But even with all of it's drawbacks this SLO contest has certainly been a terrific ride. I personally have been fortunate enough to ride through most of the "fear and greed" cycles in the Top 5 and I can state with great confidence- I enjoyed competing against all of you a great deal. My personal thanks goes to many of you whose posts I enjoyed reading- the "Wildman of SLO"- Don Ferk, the "Sub Prime" king- Andrew Carlson, the "Shorting Maniac"- Jon Coyle, the "IT Slave Driver" Keith Barton, the "Mac Guy" Jeff Kalnitz, the "Trustee" Eileen Teska, the "TA Guru" Kevin Wilde, the "Man of Few Words" Kai Pettanen, the "Always Drunk Realtor" Duffbeer, the "Sailor Mate" Magickniner, the "Cut to the Chase and drop your BS" Gullapali and the "Man of convictions"- Tom Armistead and many others... Many of you are not in the Top 10 today but as I said before- the cycle right now might not favor your style- but it does not mean that you do not deserve to be a finalist as far as I am concerned. I don't know if Ken, Mark and Co agree but who knows- this is not supposed to be a shoot for the "stars" (or should I say "Sun" :) ) contest so you never know howit will end up :) Anyway good luck to all of you and as always, trade safe and cheers, | ||
Comments (6)
Vad,
How did you know that I won the 'Wild Man' election ? It was a LandSlide. Unanimous Consent. The Election commiitte certified my
election the day before it took place. The Chief Election official was Joe Stalin who said
this :
" Elections are not determined by the man who casts the ballot - but by the MAN who COUNTS the votes "
I was a shoe-in before I tossed my Horny Hat in the ring. All's fair in Love & WAR.
I don't know how Marketocracy deetermines the TOP 10 - I got the feeling that the Contest is partitioned by style. You know Growth, Income, Sector players, Value, Fund of Funds people like Eilene, etc.Marketocracy runs a variety of funds - perhaps they select the TOP 10 as best in show according to each type of fund that they have.
You're right about performance, too. I looked at Portfolios at the beginning. Most had 10 or 12 Diversified stocks seemingly picked by listening to some talking head guru or by choosing from what was then 9 or 10 rated stocks. It looked like dart throwing or shooting in the dark to me.
In the 1990's when these types of Contests were starting to get popular, some wag got a feces throwing monkey to throw darts at the stock listings in a NewsPaper. The monkey WON !!! I read about that in Barron's some years ago - Allen Abelson went 'APE', like I knew he would.
I think the Monkey used Barron's for his target practice - for darts & other substances as well.
Shout out to everybody who pitched in and participated.
Merry Christmas to all & to all a Good Night
Don Lee Ferk
" You do what you can,
you do what you MUST,
you do what you must do
- and you do it well.....Bob Dylan
Posted by don ferk | December 21, 2007 4:49 PM
Vad,
I did a little exercise a couple of weeks ago, on the top ten, comparing to see how many had the same stocks, sort of a rough correlation test. Many of them shared the same picks, "hot stocks."
Your portfolio didn't correlate too much with the others, which I took to mean you had done some independent thinking a/o research.
Congratulations on an excellent performance.
Tom
Posted by Thomas Armistead | December 21, 2007 7:43 PM
Nice job Vad. You have been at or near top since your first fast run and haven't looked back. I must admit that I didn't play this "game" well as I certainly knew the hot sectors/stocks and still didn't invest in most of them. Also, I only placed a few large "bets" as you called them. You have done well and write well also. Nice combination. I will be rooting for you to prevail in the final cut. However, you do have some good competition around you.
Good Luck,
DocA
Posted by James Anthony | December 21, 2007 11:02 PM
Dish, First thanks for the plug !!!
??? for you as a dishwasher did you always have the water swirling machine ??? When I had that job we used just two hands and a bottle washer.
This brings to whats makes you a Vad above all the others. You remember the past and the effect that it has on today. Your stocks were not because they were fast moving. Sure it is great that they go up but what fall they fall is also important. That is why you are loaded and I do not mean beer with medals of honor from the Marketoracy 100.
Thanks for all for thoughtful posts I know we have all from them.
I hope you will let us know where we can hear you blogging .
Wishing you and your family a very Merry Christmas,
Cheers,DuffBeer
Posted by | December 22, 2007 12:01 PM
Vad, Have you found an easy way to look up contestants on SLO Blogs?
Recently I attended a talk by a World Bank offcial at CATO Institute, a think tank in Washington DC. He said Central Europe is becoming transparant of their accounting and worth looking into for investments. What is your opinion? I came across two companies One in Smart Money Magazine (CETV - Central European Media) and other by Jim Jubak (CEDC - Central European Distribution. Are ther other companies trading on USA exchanges that are worth investigating and what are the sources.
Posted by | December 23, 2007 6:34 AM
Vad,
I appreciated Eleanor Roosevelt much more than Teddy - I've included some of her quotes below for your future reference.
As the ex-officio SLO-Historian, I thoght Teddy was a 'Bully Pulpit ' BlowHard and a bit of a Fraud ( he WAS a Politician, after all )
Here's some historical FACTS -
The 'Rough Riders' were on Foot - There wasn't room enough on the TropShips for men & materiel - they left the horses & hay on the dock - they did have wagon mules. So No Charge up San Juan Hill.
An all BLACK unit actually did charge up San Juan Hill. Teddy's Rough Riders charged up Kettle Hill on foot. They got shot up Big Time.. The Americans had powder that 'smoked'; the Spanish had the new 'Smoke-Less' Powder.
When the Americans shot - they gave away their position and became TARGETS.
The War in Cuba was won by a U.S. Diplomat on The then Danish Island of St. Croix. It was a Coal Bunker. When the war broke out, he bought ALL the Coal. The Spanish fleet risked war with Denmark if they Confiscated it.
The Spanish fleet was sunk by the fact that they had no Good Coal in their Bunkers to make steam fast. they had to fall back on their Poor Coal bunkers when the U.S. Navy showed up in strength in Havana Harbor, The Spanish were Out-Run and Out-Numbered. The Spanish troops had no re-supply. End of War. I guess Teddy won it, NOT !!!!!!!
Once again,
Have a BLESSED Christmas, Thrice-Blessed Man.
Don Lee Ferk
A woman is like a tea bag- you never know how strong she is until she gets in hot water.
Beautiful young people are accidents of nature, but beautiful old people are works of art.
Eleanor on Criticism
Do what you feel in your heart to be right - for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't.
Friendship with oneself is all-important, because without it one cannot be friends with anyone else in the world.
Great minds discuss ideas; Average minds discuss events; Small minds discuss people.
I could not at any age be content to take my place in a corner by the fireside and simply look on.
Elaenor on Decisions
I think that somehow, we learn who we really are and then live with that decision.
If someone betrays you once, it's their fault; if they betray you twice, it's your fault.
It is not fair to ask of others what you are unwilling to do yourself.
Eleanor on Justice
Justice cannot be for one side alone, but must be for both.
Learn from the mistakes of others. You can't live long enough to make them all yourself.
Eleanor on Life
Life was meant to be lived, and curiosity must be kept alive. One must never, for whatever reason, turn his back on life.
One thing life has taught me: if you are interested, you never have to look for new interests. They come to you. When you are genuinely interested in one thing, it will always lead to something else.
The purpose of life is to live it, to taste experience to the utmost, to reach out eagerly and without fear for newer and richer experience.
Eleanor on Life & Fear
You gain strength, courage and confidence by every experience in which you really stop to look fear in the face. You are able to say to yourself, 'I have lived through this horror. I can take the next thing that comes along.' You must do the thing you think you cannot do.
No one can make you feel inferior without your consent.
Eleanor on CHARACTER
People grow through experience if they meet life honestly and courageously. This is how character is built.
Posted by don ferk | December 23, 2007 8:36 AM