Vad's Best Ideas

very interesting data vad, thanks for posting it. yes from your chart it looks like housing starts could go down to 800. i suppose the baby boom generation accounts for the high starts #'s in the 70's. How would the generation gap effect the #'s now? Are retirement center units and magaged communities included in housing start #'s?

The payroll employment data is interesting too, it shows that apparently job growth has already been going down for 3-4 years. I wonder if this confirms that interest rates were too high to begin with a coupla years ago. I wonder why we havent heard any accompanying speculation as to why this weeks jobs #'s were what they were. Usually you hear some anyalysis, but i haven't.

I like the fed rate graph too. Has the fed just been going with the highest probability and for how long now?

A big jump in the ppi on your graph, but curiosly again i havent heard any analysis as to why. Where have all the economists gone?
Yep, ppi went up last month, just the facts mam.

Doesnt anyone care to attibute the jobs and ppi data to anything? seasonal hiring? labor-cost-preservation? productivity? real prices? or price expectations? competition?, or lack thereof? credit-problems? what happened to all the analysis?

oh well, i guess its still the holidays, maybe that's why no one cares. I used to think the holidays was thankgiving through the super-bowl, but now i think of it as halloween through easter, with the 50days from labor day to halloween and easter to pentecost sort of being the preparation and cool down periods. well i hope we at least get some analysis from somebody before then. Ta.

VW's solution to Housing Bubble Pop

1)Gov't allows formation of Single family Dwelling REITs
2) REITs purchase Houses from Mortgage Holders or Bank REO's ( Real Estate Owned for Sale )at Market Ckearing Up-Front Prices.
3) Cash Liquefies Banks & Banks get Special TAX write-Offs for Losses ( Reverse Tax-Shelter Scheme or something )
4) part of sale terms could be a Balloon Payment w/ a Put/Call option 'Bond' [ zero-Coupon] that bamks could count as capital ])
5) Same people moved out Move back in at reduced Rent based on lower capital cost of the house to the REIT. Rent would include an Equity Build-up so Cash is available for Down Payment on the Balloon Bond for Home-Owner to Purchase the House some years hence - Rent-to-Own so-to-speak or OPTION to BUY )

6) To prevent any more Bubbles - do away with Mortgage "PUT" option - a 30 year Morgage is FOR 30 years - house sales only done by Transferring Mortgage to the new buyer - who pays the old owner the Accrued Equity + Appreciation.)

7) Problems Deferred can be Problems Solved - WE CAN MUDDLE thROUGH - Using Courage & Imagination.

I HAVE SPOKEN. That's My STORY & I;m Sticking To It.

Please feel free to 'Flesh-OUT this Bare-Bones Proposal with Ideas of your own,
ReVise & EXTend, so to Speak.

If 2 and 2 & 50 make a MILLION - Then ToMorrow WILL be a Better Day - Pete Seeger

Don Lee Ferk ( SLO nonParticipant )

Good job getting that much info together, result is a few graphs which present a case very clearly.

I am starting to wonder about stagflation as a possible outcome. I looked up Paul Volcker online, found an interview where he mentioned excessive values placed on collectibles as a symptom. Then Barron's this morning had an article on collectors, 40 thousand for an antique fishing reel.

Where to hide from stagflation?

Tom

This sounds to me like a Back-Door way of creating SynTHETIC S&L's ( Savings & Loans aka
'Building Societies' in Britz-Speak SAY )

Best Known S&L- George Bailey's ( Jimmy Stewart ) Bank in Bedford Falls in the Tear-JERKer Movie "It's A Wonderful Life " - with help from an ANGEL.

To Bail OUT South American Bankrupt Economies U.S. Secretary of the Treasury George Brady "invented' BRADY Bonds.

Why NOT invent 'Bailey Bonds' or 'BEDford Bonds' aka B.B.'s - Organizations or Individuals buying such bonds could be called 'ANGELS' or 'ANGEL FUNDS'

They would earn Interest on Bonds with Real Estate Backed Property CLAIMS - After this Perfect Storm' passes - Houses will naturally increase in VALUE - Aooreciating Assets - Like Convertible Callable Bonds - an Equity Kicker.

ANGEL Investors would 'do well' by 'doing good.'

Local Govenments who rely heavily on Property Taxes do NOT need empty Homes going back on Taxes whike Assessements decline due to large numbers of Houses Over-Hanging the their Housing Markets. Municipal BANKruptcies would soon follow wholeSALE as TAX Revnues Decline and Needy people PROliferate.

The Housing Market MUST be "CLEARED" very Quickly.

People able to Afford a house may Abandon their Mortgages to 'BUY' the House next door for Pennies on the Dollar. Arson ( Insurance Fires ) may also become a Major National Problem in this case. If Insurance Valuation exceeds Market Price on an UnderWater Mortgage - this 'OPTION' becomes TANTAlyzing.

AnyWay - Single Home REITS -w/ Federal,State & Local Co-OPeration would lead to a National sense of Purpose and PRIDE -

America CAN DO --- So, Let's do,Do,DO !!

RESPECTfully SUBmitted,
[Anonymous] fka - VW MicroB(rain)Z
fka - formerly known as