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The Fed finally quit using their inflation fighting poker face and revealed their understanding of the pressure the economy and financial markets are under at this time. Even though I am not sure we know the whole impact at this time, it is good to know that the Fed will be willing to help the credit crunch by adding liquidity and lowering the discount rate. This did not affect the Fed Funds open market rate yet, but it signals a cut coming down the road (most feel September). In the meantime (possibly even starting tomorrow), expect the market bears to still hold the upper hand in the short-term. In the longterm, I am confident of the direction of the markets moving upward. In the short term, I may have started too aggressively despite my attempt to move in more slowly. I simply found too many of my "watch" stocks reaching what I considered good prices. Therefore, I jumped in over this past two weeks.
My major miscalculation was in the commodity stocks, particularly gold and copper. I felt that there was a good opportunity in Yamana gold and Freeport/McMoran gold and copper, along with Allegheny Technologies. The stocks had already droppped quite a bit and I feel that I used good price points. However, if the dollar continues strengthening and titanium does not bounce from prospects in the aerospace and medical markets, I could be looking at quite a loss in those stocks. I will use these as an example of why I do not believe in "guessing" and trading your good initial ideas away because of short-term fluctuations. I have several months to go in this competition. I still believe that commodities and gold have further room to move upward. This might simply be a cyclical correction. In that light, I am going to "hold my ground". I will not add to my positions unless they reach very favorable price points. I have put into place some buy orders for AUY and FCX at very aggressively low prices. If they reach those buy points, I will lower my breakeven point somewhat. However, if the buys do occur, I will immediately reassess these positions to be sure they have upside. If I am not comfortable with their upside potential for a 4 month time horizon, I might sell quickly and accept my losses. We will see.
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