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Year End Rally Starts Today !! (or does it)
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Here we go again. Another new recent low and another day of terrible sentiment and negativity. The credit crisis and housing crisis is REAL and not going away. The end of day drop to the depths happened again. Investor sentiment is terrible. We may (or may not) already be in a recession or moving toward one at warp speed. Jim Cramer, the permabull, is bearish again and talking all about defensive stocks and how to hide from the terrible market trends. We have competely taken out the market lows of August and there is no bottom in sight. The sky is truely falling and we must sell all now before it is too late. You know.......... That all might be completely true. Do you know for sure? It sounds plausible. We do have a terrible financial crisis and the housing slump is far from over. It is likely to get worse. The FED seems oblivious to our plight and might not even cut rates at the December meeting. We could be headed for a new bear market and it could be a long one. Well, if you DO know, please email me immediately so I can avoid financial ruin. However, as I have said time and time again, I DO NOT KNOW and do not pretend to know. I read and listen to financial news voraciously but find no real concensus and no real way to know the "truth". When I read that first paragraph and see the overbought/oversold ossillators looking dramatically oversold, I THINK IT IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY. I have been saving 1/3 of my money to jump in at the right time. Is this the right time???? I certainly do not know. However, there is a strong argument that the market is terribly oversold and will rally strongly into the end of the year. Now, after that, I do not predict any necessary return to the long bull market. If we do rally, I would be very cautious if we have a long run into early 2008. I probably was far too early with my retail stock purchases and have a price point too high to recover from effectively. However, I still believe that the retail sector is a great value right now for those willing to wait out the short term rough waves. Unfortunately, it probably will not be soon enough to save me for this game. That being said, I am not selling at this time and will add to some positions (SHLD, JCP, KSS) at this time as I go "all in". I will also add back to tech stocks (APPL, RIMM, CSCO) and add new tech positions in GOOG. I will also add some to other positions that have been hit hard in this recent sell off and look for a strong bounce into year end. If I am wrong, my portfolio will look like world war III when this game ends. If I am right, I might salvage some level of respectability. However, if you are interested, keep looking at this portfolio after the game ends. I certainly will be. I am quite certain that the longer term view for these stocks is very positive. Talk with ya soon. Doc A PS>>>>> Darn futures are looking awesome with predictions for strong upside at the opening. That just stinks as far as I am concerned because I wanted sentiment to stay terrible through tomorrow morning to let my purchases be at lower prices. However, since I cannot effectively time my purchases for the best price tomorrow, I will simply buy at prices reasonably above today's close. If they do not "hit", I think I will get another chance later in the week. | ||
Comments (2)
James,
James is from the Hebrew meaning ' SUPPLANTER '
Anthony is a Roman family name - Latin - but of 'UNKNOWN' Meaning
HMmmmm. HMnnnnn. You sound like my type of guy - we could
get-a-long just so long as you don't cross into my Viking' Warrior's
'Kill Zone" with 'Malice a'foreThought' or by 'lying in Wait'.
A few James songs come to Mind. ToWit :
'Cool James' by Harvey Danger
'James' by Lloyd & The Commotions' { Lloyd means Grey as in a foggy haze - hidden }
'James Bondage' by Panssy Division
'Dear James' by Women in Docs'
"Saaay, where have I seen 'Docs' B4" said Stimpy to Ren.
Keep your Friends Close and your Enemies Closer, Diamond Jim
It's Important as you own the town's ONLY Diamond MINE(d).
Say, how did you KNOW that the S&P futures vs fair value: +15.0.
Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +20.5. @ 7:30 AM when your Blog was
published @ 10 PM last night. Have you got Clairavoyance or are
you just LUCKY.
It could be a CASE of "I've known it all along, You're just
finding out about it THESE DAYS", too
Why a simple "Failure" of a few "Brain-Dead" Financial (Mental ? )
Institutions should Turn the Whole Wide World topsy-turvy'
into a Nose-Dive Tail-Spin is BEYOND the pale of MY comptehension.
Doc, you BURY your mistakes. Maybe you can help me with a little problem I've got -
I'm running out of places to hide the bodies. Any Advivce? I'll listen, patiently.
Time to get off your "CASE",
Don Lee Ferk ( aka VikingWarrior )
So, here's you Song :
Cool James - Harvey Danger [Band]
Cannot have this, a perfect conversation
Or coast on silence and lowered expectations out the door
You've spent half your life talking trying to get a pause in edgewise
Swallow poison tongues, oppose your thumbs, believe in nothing
Cannot have a nature change, one more time
You cannot have a nature change, cause the bastard changes
Cannot have this, you see how so much time has wasted
To take a clenched fist and see how quiet calm replaced it
You say you'll never trust again, I'll never trust again
Who has time? You give that up on never finding the one you've been waiting for, but
Cannot have a nature change, one more time
You cannot have a nature change, cause the bastard changes
Well I got no more time to spend on arguers
Devil's advocates and nasty bits of fits of desperation
"Lawrence of Arabia," sir Alex said to Peter
"What I owe you is beyond evaluation now"
Extend to me your hand, I'll nibble on your fingers
Bend to me your sweet ear, I'll gnaw it from its hinges now wooh!
Cannot have a nature change, one last time
Yeah thats why ladies love cool james, cause the bastard changes
'Sweet Baby James ' - James Taylor
Posted by don ferk | November 27, 2007 8:01 AM
I think buying this morning was a good move on your part. Buying in bleakest mid-August was how I went from the bottom quarter of the competition to the top quarter (as high as #70 at one point).
It will be astounding if there is not a huge rally into the end of the year. Fund managers -- who, as one of the competitors has pointed out, control way more money than private investors -- retain and attract investors (and get bonuses) based on their annual results, so they have every motivation in the world to continue the tradition of the Santa Claus rally.
I went "fully invested" which for me is 80% too soon (late October) based on my cynical beliefs, and my SLO portfolio is up more than $23,000 this morning.
I think it's in January that everything will tank again. We'll see. I maintain a set balance between 5 asset categories at all times, so a tanking market is always a buying opportunity for me.
Posted by Eileen Teska | November 28, 2007 10:50 AM