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Courage of your convictions
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Why spend all of the time you do researching stocks and trends if you don't follow your research?? When you really think about it, this usually occurs because of fear or uncertainty. If it comes from new evidence, then that is fine. Many times though, it comes from the uncertainty that occurs from short-term action that goes against your view and shakes the courage of your convictions. This may result in your acting on those uncertainties and leading, most often, to bad investment choices. This is the case with my investment in GOOG that I added to SLO2 with good research to support that the street had unfairly punished this company and it was poised to rebound. When the short-term price action didn't go my way, I simply sold out and lost a golden opportunity for a nice portfolio boost. It will move decidedly higher tomorrrow because of beating street estimates. (up over 75 points). Yet another example of the importance of doing your research and sticking to it. This advice occurs on the upside as much as the downside. With this in mind and staring in the face astronomical fertilizer prices recently announced, I plan to sell all of MOS if/when it hits $136 per share. All the momentum is up with this stock, but I plan to sell out and take my 16.5% gain and move on. I will follow this for a pullback, and if one occurs, I will consider a rebuy. It is simply too hot for me right now. Apple, however, with a 30% gain is still not too hot for me. I did take some profits recently, but I think there are upside catalysts remaining and the stock is still down substantially for the year. It can certainly move higher. Boone Pickens is decidedly against my "ultrashort" move on gas and oil. I myself have questioned this move because of strong oil demand and no increase in supply. As I said, I think the trend is decidedly "up". However, I still feel that a pullback will occur soon. If so, I will likely get a nice gain and will sell the ETF. If not, I will sell the ultrashort within a 10% loss window. Interesting stuff. Later. Doc | ||
Comments (1)
James:
Great points. I disagree on GOOG, although I own it in round 2 and will be selling 3/4 this morning. I agree on Ultra Short Oil and Gas, although I have been getting hit. The desire to always be right at the right time is impossible, and I cheered your question, "Why spend all of the time you do researching stocks and trends if you don't follow your research"? Short, sweet, to the point, and powerful.
---Jonathan
Posted by Jonathan Coyle | April 18, 2008 6:53 AM