duffbeer

A Toast to all of you !!!
Sunday September 02, 2007 : 04:45 PM

My real job is selling real estate It is the most difficult market I have ever seen it in my 22 years of helping buyers and sellers.
We are experiencing unrational exuberance. I saw the subprime collapse coming 3 years ago. I new this could not last and there was going to be a be price to pay. I guess I am from old school,what did they think giving loans to people with out jobs paying enough to repay the payments. That is when I really got busy with our personal portfolio.
I am glad I made that decision. No one takes care of your money better then you. I still believe that but have I ever gotten help. Markekocray and all of you.
To me it is a joy reading all the blogs ,looking at the portfolio's and be active in the Marketocracy SLO. The knowledge I have gained is so valuable. Thanks to all of you for sharing . So many ways to go about learning,helping and profiting from each others information. This to me is paying it forward. What an advantage it is to read your blogs and getting new investment ideas. Now it is time to see if I can share an idea with all of you.
To get that hot climbs straight to the top stock I have to drink a DuffBeer. They put them at the bottom of the can !!!!
I will let you know what I find.
Cheers, Duff Beer

Upon further review ,1st 4 wks
Monday September 03, 2007 : 11:48 AM

To be successful you must work at it. This truly applies to all aspects of life. One can not wait for good luck to happen ,one must be involved in the process.
Since I get most of my investment picks at the bottom of a DuffBeer can I have been busy trying to find some new ones. First I will share with you my first 21 findings. They have been doing pretty good give it is heavy on tech and we have been experiencing some huge up and down days.
This group has an since inception 2.97 % return . I will list them in the top 7 mid 7 and disappointing 7
top 7
crnt +19.25 , rimm +17.70, vdsi +17.30, alvr +16.17, pot +12.38, nvt +10.46, flir +9.67

mid 7
gti +7.82, celg +5.27, tne +4.94, adbe +4.68, sndk +1.63, swks -0.26, aapl -4.06

disappointing 7
adc t-4.12, ba -7.27, ttpy -8.18, snc r-8.29, zolt -8.47, axys -11.66, sirf -27.14

As you can see I have been finding some rather good ,promising and bad picks at the bottom of those DuffBeer cans.
Over this Labor day holiday I plan on drinking plenty of DuffBeers to get some new ideas and picks for next 4 weeks.
I will post later what I find at the bottom of those DuffBeer cans .

Cheers, duffbeer

Going Going Gone
Monday September 03, 2007 : 08:10 PM

No these did not turn out to be the home runs I expected them to be . They are strike outs,ko's and now there have been cut for under performance.
Put on waivers are --- ADCT -----TTPY ( I like it for the future but not in the SLO ) ---- AXYS ------SIRF
Plenty of boo's coming from the stands for these players. I bet I sell these Tuesday and they all get 30% premium buyouts Wednesday !!!!
I will be able to raise about 80,000 dollars to put to work some where else, but where?
It is time to get busy on finding their replacements. Should I try some of the methods I have come across in reading your blogs or should I stay with the proven over time always almost profitable DuffBeer method. the winners are at the bottom of the can and to get them I am forced to drink all that good DuffBeer.
More to come on the up coming picks.
Cheers, DuffBeer

"Huddle-up" "Huddle-up"
Thursday September 13, 2007 : 05:46 PM

I can hear Ben yelling this to the other voting Fed members. It seems like months we have been waiting and waiting. Many of you are much more knowledgable about economics. I can tell by all those initials behind your names. Well, my many years on this earth watching these occurances, we most likely will see the drop of 25 bp. Seems the Fed likes doing small things, then wait and see.

Thanks to all of you who really are educated in this area for your postings. I personally enjoy them, profit from them and also have learned much from them.

Now I must go back to my school books which I hide in where else - the bottom of a DUFF BEER can.

Cheers,
Duff Beer

They Recovered ? Standing Pat
Thursday September 13, 2007 : 05:55 PM

Just about the time I was going to cut lose a few issues ADCT, ADBE, AXYS, TTPY and SIRF they start to recover. I am watching these issues closely because they still are not out of the red, but they are improving. I have willing and able candidates ready to replace them. The new recruits are not cheap but they are in the upward climbing sectors increasing momentum, institution purchasing expanding sales and growing earnings. I sound like I know what I am talking about - no I found this in one of my Duff Beer cans, along with these coded letters FLR, BIDO, OMCL, ISRG, SYNA, ESRX and BCSI. Now that I have all these letters, what do I do next ?

Most of you will run them through screens, models, charts and come up with analytical evaluations to buy, buy, buy. No, not me, I listen to what's being said about them, look at a few websites for their blessing, then put them back in the Duff Beer can, shake it up and pull out the winners. This is eeeeeasy. Funny thing, this now proven method has my portfolio returning 4.72% to date. I am amongst some of the best top 100 SLO contestants. Since I empty a few Duff Beer cans daily, I will keep you up to date when I find a winner.

Thanks to all of you for sharing your ideas and insights - I find it very helpful and informative. I'm off to the store, supplies of Duff Beer are dangerously low and I have to do some research tonight.

Cheers,
Duff Beer

"Class 6" "Rapids Ahead"
Monday September 17, 2007 : 05:42 PM

Having a goal and reaching it is very important. Well my choices found at the bottom of those Duff Beer cans have created excitement. I have learned so much from all of you who post at your blogs. Cheers to Marketocracy, Ken Kim and staffers for sponsoring and manging this event. We all will prosper because of it.

Think just how far we have come since the build out of the web. Imagine where the journey will lead us. The Dick Tracy cartoon strips with the gadget wrist watch are here. My portfolio is based on the hand held device build out and so far, so good. Week 6, (Friday 9/14) ended up 0.53%, tiny but positive, overall it is up 4.54% - that's pretty good progress figuring I had to make up a $47,000 loss.

I entered this contest to learn. If you take a few minutes out to read the blogs, profiles and portfolios you will learn something new. You can only get so much knowledge out of a Duff Beer can but from all these blogs it's endless.

As for my stocks on the sell list, they are improving and moving upward.TNE (-1.81 to -.05), AXYS (-12.36 to -4.76), Zolt (-12.97 to -8.42), SIRF (-26.23 to -12.96), and SNDK (-4.04 to -7.02). Most are still wobbly and I have the scissors out.

I did not want to be a trader in this contest. I wanted to evaluate every 4 weeks and only make changes if drastic events such as bad news on product sales, softening earnings, downgrades or the momentum slows. They still are not out of the dog house. I have a short list of replacements, but for now I will stick with their positive upward action. We await Uncle Ben and his luncheon guests (the Fed's) decision. This week's earnings releases include the investment bankers, we will see just how involved they are in sub prime meltdown.

Enough, I'm thirsty. Time to head to the fridge and sit back with a good, cool Duff Beer. Maybe I will find another stock wo add to my watch list.

Cheers,
Duff Beer

Up, Up, and Away
Thursday September 20, 2007 : 05:12 PM

How did I pick my 21 stocks for the fund? Yes, I do use the Duff Beer can method, but not all is found at the bottom of those cans.

Rating myself knowledgeable but no where near the level most of you who use technical analysis in your decision making process. I am a gatherer of ideas, information, and trends. Something just catches my eye or perks my ears, then I go to work searching for additional data, confirming it and using what common sense I have to make a buy or sell decision.

Sites I visit for information are Marketocracy IBD, Clear Station, MSN money, Yahoo, Seeking Alpha and more. I listen to Bloomberg, CNBC, World CNBC, and WBBM 780 Noonhour.

Many of you use much more sophisticated methods to find your stocks worthy of purchase or sale. As for me I just keep gathering information. I also use the President Reagan method, "Trust but Verify".

I guess I am a sponge. It seems to be working well. SLO blogs have been a terrific place to gain knowledge .I never get tired of reading your are postings. Thanks for sharing !!!!!

Well, time to go back to another well tested and proven stock picking method - checking what I find at the bottom of a Duff Beer can.

I'll let you know the results later.

Cheers,
Duff Beer

Coulda - Shoulda - Woulda ????
Sunday September 30, 2007 : 10:03 AM

How many times have we made a change only to find we should have gone with our intuition.
Statistics past,present and situational are important and should be taken into consideration
when making a decision . But what about your feelings,thoughts and evaluations ? BlueskyMack
points this out about performance comparing MasterCharge to baseball .
Coaching football for 16 years I can see this. You know your go to players in certain
situations. The ones you could count on. The performers who loved a challenge,craved the
pressure and had the strong desire to succeed. Can you think of your own personal
comparisons that you may have .

When picking your initial stock selections how many times did you change it ? I changed mine picks but then I kept clouding up things, and went back to my original 21 selections. I thought, lets run with these and adjust as we go.I think the problem we all have is we think to much. Personally I try to avoid paralyzing my decision making process ,for many it is difficult to do but for DuffBeer well I'll let you decide.

Now back to one of my favorite times of my life.Decisions do require the thought process but they also include performance . Many times we would find our team behind , late in the game with little time on the clock yet in position to score and win . Time out was usually calledI would enter the huddle and see the anxiousness on those 11 players faces and I'd say " pretty exciting game " they would calm down then get whooped up. They would be waiting for me to call the play but I would ask " what play do you want to run ? " I always knew who would step up and take command. They showed confidence,courage and desire to succeed and help the team.
All of us in this SLO contest have the desire to succeed. It is the courage to pick a stock and stick with it that tuff. Ken Kam has formed a great bunch of team members. I am glad to be on it .
I review my fund picks often and continue to see them improve their performance. Sure they will changes but I have confidence in those picks and so far so good. Will I change sure isn't change the one constant in life we know will happen .

Oh did we always score and win, most of the time but there was something more important to get across to these young men. Play as a unit,a team and not individuals . They accomplished great things as team and reached goals their could never obtain doing it themselves.

Today I am fortunate to have sold them their first home ,see them with their families or talk about that goal line play over a cold DuffBeer. Coaching is not all about winning it is about turning boys into successful young men.

Stick with your gut feelings, I bet you will be right most of the time.'
Cheers, DuffBeer