duffbeer

Enjoy all your posts. Thanks for the humor!

I've read several articles analyzing the effect presidential elections have on the stock market, and it's been negligible. Even the great undecided election had no effect. MSN Investing Jon Markman's New Year's prediction last December included the possibility that President Bush and Vice President Chaney might be impeached this year and Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House being third in line, installed as President this year. Jon said he thought the impact of that -- or any of the other more probably predictions he made -- on the market would be temporary and minimal with all three indexes setting new records by the end of the year.

Personally I think this election is less likely to have an impact on the markets than any in the last 50 years. Business and lobbyist donations have already shifted dramatically from being overwhelming to the Republican Party and its candidates to 50-50. I just read an article that says there are indications that major conservative donors are so upset with the deficit and financial corruption that they may not donate this election cycle and may even back a few very conservative Democratic candidates. In such an environment, it's hard to envision big swings except perhaps in stocks that will benefit or be hurt by policy differences. Health care of course leaps to mind, but I think most companies are already adjusting their approaches and products since the shift in control of Congress. Now there was a dramatic political event no one was seriously expecting, and I don't recall it's having a negative impact on the market. Think I'll go back and have a look!

Thanks for posing such an interesting question.

DuffBeer -
About the election Question - 1) Quaff Mass Quantities of What's NOT just for BreakFast AnyMore [ SaturDay Night Live Cone-Head style] & 2) Get off your, well, Duff & 3) Vote. They'll give you a little Sticker which you can apply on your Left-Side Shirt Pocket (over your Heart ) & you'll FEEL REAL Good about yourself all day long.
Joseph Stalin once said that elections were not determined by the Man who votes but by the Man who Counts the votes. In the democratic Land of the Free and the and Home of the Brave , it's a little different than in the Evil Communist Empire. The elections here are determined by pre-veniently arranging the Ballot Choices to either 1) Tweedle Dee or 2)Tweedle Dum. Just Enjoy the Circus, the Carnival and the Japanese-style "Kabuki Theatre" - you know - the Shadow Puppet Show. It's ALL Great fun and EveryBody has an Edgar Winter-Style "Real Good Time". You can get the Juices flowing and STAND for SomeThing if just for 1 Day. In the Long Run, though, not much really changes. It's sort of like the Stock Market - In the short term it's a Voting Machine, but in the Long Run it's a WEIGHING Machine.
I have voted in every election for more than 20 years - Presidential to DogCatcher ( no big difference there as far as the net, net degree of relative importance ). I went to the Polls in the election before the last election and got behind an entire BusLoad of Old Folks ( Senior Citizens from the Home where they were WareHoused). They were discussing just who among the candidates was going to GET them more Bennies ( Benefits or Benzidrine - I didn't ask ) and the Most Free Stuff. They sounded like Accountants, calculating the Net Present Value to their personal Finances of each of the Prescription Plans proposed for ONLY those over ( what ? ) 65. Now that's how you get out the vote - make it a Personal Money-Deal. And so it goes ---
DufffBeer, just have a Happy, Healthy & Prosperous Life. Like Bob Dylan said, " Don't Follow LEADERS & watch those Parking Meters". As the Temple Priests said to Judas Iscariot - " SEE to YourSelf ". NoBody Else is looking out after YOU - they just happen to " FEEL your Pain" sometimes during the Silly Season before the 1st Tuesday in November - after that Yo'On Yo'Own - Believe IT!
I just filled up the ole gas-guzzler with Freedom Joy-Juice - it was about $2.50 a gllon here ($2.449 @ at the local WalMart SuperCenter). That was about the same price as it was when OIL was about $65 to $70 a barrel & the Entire country was in an UpROAR and our Charismatic Leaders were conducting high profile "Investigations" in the Public Glare of the Erstwhile BoobTube. My question is " what's Price of Gasoline GOING to be - Starting on the 2nd Wednesday in November with OIL North of $85 / barrel" ? Co-Incidence - I don't THINK so. A happy & Contented Voter is like a Happy & Contented Cow - EZ to milk - for what it's worth.
As John Prine once said, " Pretty Good, NOT bad - I can't Complain - but Most of all , EveryThing is just about the SAME".
And like Forrest Gump said, " That's abot all I have to say about it".
VikingWarrior

A Cynic is a person who knows the Price of everything and the Value of Nothing. - Oscar Wilde. The VikingWarrior is not a Cynic, but a Realist. - VW