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July 2008 Archives

Caught the falling knife

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- Hitting Home

In most time of this round, I hold cash in hand. I missed a lot of up and downs. Just as I started testing the water a few days ago, I immediately caught this severe down trend. Bad timing. Nevertheless, I still think my move will pay off eventually.

The final hope

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- Home Stretch

The second round of competition enters the final turn. The market is taking a nose diving as well. I am suprised that our pro participants lost their huge profit so quickly. Most of them are in the red now. My portfolio was trailing theirs most of the time. Now, we are very close to each other.

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Home Stretch

July 25 is fast approaching. My portfolio is almost surely under the water. Looking back, I missed the increditable run between March and May. How am I going to adjust in the future? Will more conviction help? No concrete answer yet.

Hedge fund's performance

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- For Real

An article on CNN says hedge funds collectly are down 0.75% so far. This really surprises me. This is an amazing performance, considering that S&P was down 12.8% in the same period. Are the general belief that 80% of funds can not beat the index? Who do I believe?

Round 2

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- Back Home

Before I realized, round #2 came to an end. Overall I did not as good as round #1. In round #1, the market was good, I took some agressive moves and I was a little lucky. If my memroy is correct, I was up more than 20% and place high. This round, I am down a little and place out of top 100. 2 out 6 official players soundly beat me. The good thing is that my performance still beat S&P and still beat 4 out 6 official players.

In this round, I held cash position for long period of time. I only established a small position after the market ran up and then came back down to the low point again. It is this small position bringing me to the negative side. Looking back, there are two decisions I need to question myself.
1. Do I regret to completely exit the market from April to June?
2. Do I regret to re-establish the small position at the end of June?

Thought

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- in the lab

I feel amused that somebody actually takes so serious at my postings :) This blog's main purpose is to clarify my own thinking.

In my previous post, I had two un-answered questions:

1. Do I regret to completely exit the market from April to June?
2. Do I regret to re-establish the small position at the end of June?

I still did not think through. For now, here is my thought: If both of my actions on #1 and #2 had come a little late, it would be perfect.

Inactivity

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- food for thought

I agree to an earlier post by one of our fellow members: "No Time To Be Hero". Unfortunately, I was singled out by another member for my "inactivity". Do we really need to hold stock postions to be qualified as a good money manager? Are you willing to put your money in my portfolio or the "market"?

Consumer Confidence

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Consumer Gadgets

Even with the release of new version of iphone, AAPL is in trouble. RIMM is not looking good either. Consumer's lack of confidence finally caught these once high flyers. But the general seems found a bottom. I am looking for some opportunity.

It is not Cuil

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Look Inside

A lot of media talk about a new search engine named "cuil". I knew about it a while ago. I was wondering how its search results look like. Today, finally I am able to see it. The first try, I typed in "cuil" in the search box and hit search. Nothing happened. It hanged forever. The same query took Google, Yahoo and MSN less than 1 second. A couple of hours later, I did the same test again. It is better. "cuil" query came back, but other query took forever and hanged. Several hours later, I did the same test again. It took about 5 seconds for "cuil" query to come back.

So, don't believe the hype. It is not cuil at all.