jaudio shorts

Confused on what to buy? The time is right for ETFs.

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Since we have now launched into round 2 of the Strategy Lab Open, it is back to the drawing board to map out a winning strategy. In a down market or a bear market, there always seems to be some confusion on what to do. The idea that overseas markets are "de-coupled" from the USA doesn't seem to be panning out. What is an investor to do? The answer lies in 3 letters: ETF.

For those that don't know, ETF stands for "Exchange Traded Fund". It is basically a mutual fund that trades like a stock. ETFs consist of many different stocks, all picked to suit the particular goal of the ETF. Although I will have some individual stock picks in this round, I have a significant amount of money in ETFs. I cannot say enough about the advantages of ETFs. The upsides to ETFs can be found in numerous books and articles, but for the average investor and those in the SLO, the greatest upside to ETFs is diversification.

Some of us look at the winners of Round 1 and think we have to swing for the fences with every pick we make. I beg to differ. Slow and steady can win the race. The coming months could be pretty rocky, and I wouldn't doubt that a 300-500 point swing in one day may be commonplace. The only way to lessen the blow is with diversification. ETFs provide just that.

Why buy into one technology stock when you can buy them all? Why buy one large cap, mid cap, or small cap stock when you can have all of them? Why buy one value or growth stock when you can have 100? No matter what type of investor you are, diversifying a portfolio is of extreme importance, and ETFs allow you to have the diversification condensed into one security instead of hundreds. With hundreds or thousands of securities in your portfolio in the form of ETFs, a market bombshell won't leave you gobsmacked the morning after. Stockshah, who finished with a stellar 49.02%, had an awesome pick in LDK Solar (LDK). LDK skyrocketed from $30 a share to over $70 a share in less than a month, a home run pick by any measure in that amount of time. However, LDK was $75 in late September before tanking to $30. It was all a matter of timing. Similar trends were seen with other solar companies to include TSL and CSUN. But what about an ETF that is heavy solar? Powershares Clean Energy ETF, PBW, started at $22 in mid September, topped at $28 at the end of December, and has since retraced back to $22. That's a 27% gain or a 21% loss depending on if you bought at the top or bottom. The point is, though you will have gyrations up and down, they won't be as severe, and they won't kill you especially when you have no money to spend because you are "all in". Some people are able to time the market here and there, but most of us can't do it. ETFs will be more forgiving, especially when you unknowingly buy at the top.

That doesn't mean you can't get risky with ETFs, though. Diversification can man less risk or more risk depending on your style. That's another beautiful thing about ETFs. They allow you to be as conservative or aggressive as you want to be. In SLO round one, I piled my portfolio with Proshares Ultra Short ETFs. These ETFs are designed to go up 2% for each 1% the market goes down. There were days that my Nasdaq UltraShort, QID, was over 20% in the red because the market moved up. In fact, my entire portfolio was a good 20% in the red for a while. It was incredibly wild ride. It was also extremely risky. Are you looking to be risky? There are ETFs out there that are waiting for you. On the flip side, if you are a disciple of Ric Edelman, you can build a portfolio that includes every asset class with ETFs. Want to add bonds to your portfolio? There's ETFs for many government and corporate bonds, long term, short term, and inflation protected. Want to add gold or silver to your portfolio? There's ETFs for that too. How about currency? There's ETFs for currency including several European countries, the Canadian Dollar and the tried and true greenback. Don't like the greenback? Get an ETF that bets against it. Think the stock market is going to go to hell in a hand basket? Go UltraShort. Do you like commodities? No problem. Think the financial market and real estate has finally hit bottom and is about to go back up? Go for some real estate ETFs There's literally no end to the selection. You can find an ETF for almost any asset class, lifestyle, sector, or market you are looking for. Here are some of my favorites:

Proshares:

I am biased toward Proshares because of the selection of long and short ETFs, and their customer service. (More about the customer service in an upcoming blog)
Proshares offers 58 ETFs that can be a simple or as complicated as you like. They have ETFs that mimic returns of the DOW, Nasdaq, S&P, and Russell 2000, both long and short. They also have 6 Ultra Short International ETFs that will be sure to be bought and blogged about in the competition. I am heavy in FXP, the Ultra short China ETF, maybe a little too heavy for my tastes, but with China looking more and more like a bubble, it has further to fall. Check them out at http://www.proshares.com/funds

Ishares:

Ishares, found at www.ishares.com, has one of the most user- friendly sites for browsing their ETFs. Within 5 minutes you can place your mouse over the "ishares quick finder" icon and find ETFs tracking US markets, foreign markets, currency, and bonds. I added a few bond and currency ishares to my portfolio to diversify into another asset class. Ishares site is also good for researching the ups and downs of specific foreign markets, so at the very least, it warrants a bookmark.

Powershares:

Found at www.powershares.com, the first sentence on the site says it all. "PowerShares currently offers over 100 compelling investment opportunities through style, industry, commodities, currencies, specialty access and broad market Exchange-Traded Funds." Click on the products icon, and you will see a listing of an amazing group of specialized ETFs. My favorites are the commodities, dividend yield, and sector ETFs. Like micro-caps? Powershares PZI is awaiting your buy.

This is my no means an all-inclusive list, but it is a pretty good start when looking to find a way to diversify risk when applying your strategy.

Let the game begin.

---Jonathan

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How I Lost $33,000 in Less Than 30 Seconds--Know Your Limits

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Most lessons in life are learned the hard way. As kids, we need to burn our hand on the oven, stick a fork in the electrical outlet, and slip while running on the swimming pool deck to make our parents warnings real. As adults, the same principle applies. Our actions have consequences, and many times we must learn the hard way instead of taking advice. On January 22nd, I learned the hard way about the importance of using limit prices.

ALWAYS use a limit price when placing your orders, especially after hours. I cannot emphasize this enough. For those that don't know, a limit price allows you to set the price of a buy or a sell. If the price doesn't reach your limit, the trade doesn't happen. Using limit prices can help with buying entry points and selling exit points, but it also can protect you from a freak of nature. What I am about to tell you is the product of my own laziness coupled with a strange occurrence and a flaw in the Marketocracy trading system. It all added up to the perfect storm, and what a storm indeed.

Since January 4th, I have been trading like a madman testing different strategies. On the morning of the 22nd, before the markets opened, I placed an order for 100 shares of RXD, Proshares Ultra Short Health Care ETF, and thought nothing of it. A position in RXD is part of my long term strategy, and with the price starting to rise from the mid-high 60's into the low 70's, I wanted to increase my position since I think it has some room to run. Previous to this, I had been accumulating a large cash position, around 160,000 at the time. I placed the order, along with others, and then went to work.

When I came home from work, I logged into marketocracy and noticed I was down by almost 3%. It didn't make sense since I had large positions in Ultra Short ETFs, and with the market down, I expected to be up a few percentage points. When I looked at the individual stock page, I noticed something strange.

An order was placed for a buy of 100 shares of RXD at an average price of $400.63 per share.

What the heck? $400 per share? There must be some mistake. I know that this ETF trades at a very low volume and can swing around a bit, but opening at over 570% its previous close seemed insane. I plugged in the symbol into different sites and it looked like RXD opened that morning at $399.99 per share. Once the market opened, it quickly fell to its normal trading range. My market order, placed after hours with no limit price, bought 100 shares at $400.63 per share. In less than 30 seconds, almost $33,000 was wiped out as it started to trade in normal range. (If you go to financial sites to view the price history of RXD, the best record I can find of this is a candlestick chart with an infinite bar upward on the 22nd).

I then proceeded to call Proshares to figure out what was going on. I talked to a really professional and kind analyst (who I cannot name, unfortunately, but excellent nevertheless) that explained to me that during the weekend the Ask price of RXD was $399.99 per share and the Bid Price was $71.28 per share. She said that spreads like that are not uncommon before the markets open, but once they open, the spread closes to a "normal" range. According to the analyst, on the morning of the 22nd, the "books weren't open for trading" for RXD until shortly after the bell, and the first trade executed for the day was 31 seconds into trading at $72.38. No shares in real life exchanged hands at $400 per share. How $399.99 was the recorded opening price is beyond me. This, of course, exposes a flaw in the game. There have been a few days in the past 8 months where RXD opened at a skyrocket price and then immediately plummeted to normal price a few seconds into the trading day. It would be possible, then, to buy shares at market price during the day, and then place a Good Til Cancel limit sale for a price 200-300% the next day. Granted, it would take a while to "strike it rich" since it isn't an everyday occurrence, but it would happen sooner or later. (Maybe I should set a limit order to sell 100 shares for $399.99, yes?) Again, no trades took place in real life at $399.99 per share, but they did in my virtual portfolio. I sent an email to Marketocracy regarding this, but I received no response. If I had only checked the "sell" button when I placed my order instead of the "buy" button . . . that $33,000 loss would have been a $33,000 gain. Regardless, it was a lesson learned here in the virtual portfolio, and though it tore a chunk out of me in the long term game, it didn't affect the short term game. Although a situation like this is extremely rare, it could happen and leave your portfolio hit and your psyche wrecked. Limit orders don't necessarily protect you in a crash since the prices can fall faster than the orders are processed in a panic. However, here in the SLO, always, always use limit orders after hours. Don't learn the hard way, especially now that competition is underway.

So what is all of this business of "bid price", "ask price", "market price", and such? Who is the "man behind the curtain" setting all of these prices at a whim? I'll cover that in a blog next week.

Now for a word for the leaders:

My raise a glass to those of you with the stones to load up your portfolio on Ultra Shorts, after all, I did it last round and I am stilted toward the Ultra Shorts this round. One word of warning, though. While we bask in glory when the market tanks, the Ultra Shorts can reverse course and evaporate paper profits. I know, it happened to me before, and probably will happen several times this round. Let's use FXP, the Ultra Short China ETF from Proshares as an example. I have been lucky enough to be on the winning side of FXP, seeing that in less than a month it has been as low as $70, as high as $105, then back to $85 and now back over $100. I have made some money in the swings, but have been too heavy in FXP. It's fun to play with fire, but sooner or later you get burned, which is why I have trimmed my position in FXP. I plan further reductions until I can get it to a "safe" level, which is between 3-4% of my portfolio. I am spread out into a dividend ETF, bonds, foreign currency, and gold, but the short side is my bread and butter meaning higher risk. I will be interested to see how many of us panic in the next rally.

Speaking of high risk, I have about 5-10 days before I go on a short squeeze buying spree. I have built a large reserve of cash in an effort to execute a short squeeze strategy I practiced in January. Once the buys are made and the blood starts flowing, I'll give detailed updates of the carnage.

---Jonathan

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The Art of the Short Squeeze

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A few weeks ago I laid out my goals and overall strategy for round 2 of the Strategy Lab Open. After several rounds of testing, I am sticking with the overall strategy with a few modifications. The strategy involved going after what I call the "ugly, the beat up, the disowned, and dismembered. I began testing the strategy, with some interesting results. In three short weeks, I dodged bullets, avoided land mines, and struck gold a time or two. I only had a couple big losers, but my success wasn't necessarily because of my investing acumen. Some of it I chock up to luck, which is why I am modifying the strategy. After all, the goal here is to make money.

I have been testing the art of making money off of a "short squeeze". When a stock is sold short, an investor borrows a share, sells it on the open market in the hopes the stock price goes down. At a later date, the investor buys the share back and either books profit if it has dropped in price or books losses if it goes up in price. A Short Squeeze happens when a stock that has been sold short suddenly goes up in price causing the short sellers to "cover", that is, short sellers buy the shares back, which in turn causes the price to go higher. Short selling, which cannot be done in the SLO, can be risky business. Investing in stocks that have been beaten up and have a large amount of shares sold short, can be near suicide. Here's what happened to me in the testing phase.

A few factors went into my selection of stocks, but the main goal was finding stocks with a large percentage of shares sold short, and were also trading within 5% of their 52 week lows. My initial list consisted of about 100 stocks, and I bought close to 30. Some of the darlings were Countrywide (CFC), MBIA (MBI), and Ambac Financial (ABK). There were really too many companies to choose from since overall short interest in the market was on the rise, so several companies had been beat up during the short selling cycle.

Things got off to a bad start when a keystroke slip bought 12,222 shares of CFC instead of 1222 shares. Lucky for me, I was able to sell 11,000 shares and book a tiny profit to reduce my position to what it was supposed to be in the first place. I started buying MBI at $24.10, and ABK at $17.55. (Take a look at the price history of MBI and ABK to illustrate how bad these were hit after I started buying). I started buying those and many other positions just before they really tanked. Despite seeing several of my initial buys go south almost immediately, most of them turned into profits. How? First and foremost, I started buying small positions and doubling down as they went down by at least 5%. I didn't use limit prices on buys because volatility was through the roof, and some took 10, 15, or even 25% hits in just one day. When I posted my thoughts on my precarious position in CFC, the market helped me the day after when CFC soared on buyout news and I was able to get out with a 51% gain. MBI and ABK were not as profitable, but I kept buying as they went down until they popped, then I was out. Since all of these positions were part of practicing this short term trading strategy, most of them are already gone. I have held onto one, ADS, and I missed the big pop so I will probably sell soon for a loss. The toughest thing about this strategy was the thought of losing even more money as I hit the execute button when I doubled down on a stock I hated. I guess I'm a glutton for pain.

The key to winning in January hinged on two things: hanging tough and doubling down. My initial buy was $10k. I then would double to $20k and then stop at $40k. In hindsight, it was a bit reckless because any one of the positions could have tanked even further, and losing 10% at each leg of buying would have equaled around $7k of losses. I'd need several stocks to significantly pop to recover, and thankfully I didn't lose my shirt. No strategy is bullet proof, and my first experience left mine with so many bullet holes to analyze about how I came out unscathed.

I am now buying in with initial purchases of $5k, and I will double down on a 5% -10% drop and triple down on a drop greater than 10%. I will cap my purchase at $30k. Included with this is initial buys using limit orders placed at least 5% lower than what I am comfortable with. Once I am down 10% after my last buy, I sell for a loss. Out of about 30 limit orders I placed recently, only 6 hit the limit with a few missing by only a few cents. A couple popped 15% after I barely missed them, but no harm, no foul. In order for me to make some real money, I'll have to take some hits as I am easing into the position. I would eventually like to have 20% of my portfolio invested in short squeeze plays, but right now the amount of short interest is decreasing, meaning I probably won't reach my entry points. I may be playing a little too conservative, but patience always pays off in the end. Playing some short squeezes won't necessarily make "the big bucks", but they do have the potential to add a few percentage points of gains. I also noticed that my short squeeze candidates in January weren't moving up and down with the broad market, so when the market continued getting hit, most of the short squeezes were left unscathed since they were already "at bottom".

The market is real confusing right now. We have people screaming recession, people denying recession, flirtations with bears, fear on inflation, the ongoing credit crunch, and the list goes on. China is starting to come back a bit, which is bad for me since I have a nice chunk of FXP, the Ultra Short China ETF, and the emerging markets have recovered some hurting my short plays on those markets. Nevertheless, I am attempting to diversify into every asset class, either long or short, to ease the pain. The riskiest parts of my portfolio sit with SZK, the Ultra Short Consumer Goods ETF, the aforementioned FXP, and short Japan and emerging market ETFs. It equals around 20% of my portfolio, and may become more if they drop to my buy limit price for each. Eventually I would like to hack it down to 10% and increase my position in bond ETFs, with some money being dedicated toward going long in the market. My portfolio will be doomed if the US and overseas markets catch new fire and rally upward, but I do not expect the USA to rally any more than 10%. China seems to be bubbly, and some good money is made when long in the bubble, but I am confident that China will be pulled down by the USA. I am not a believer in "decoupling", although I do admit we don't all move in concert. Let's just get this recession over with and pass out awards to the bottom callers.

The romance of the market . . . just when you think you have it all figured out, you must go back and rethink.

---Jonathan

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Success, Failure, and More Short Squeezes

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I am now about 2 weeks since my first short squeeze buy. In my last blog, I outlined my strategy with entry points, doubling down, and when I will bail if it continues to sink. In this blog I will be more specific on the strategy, and I will outline how I rate the performance of each.

First of all, I must say that I personally don't like any of my short squeeze picks. All of these companies have an obscene short interest ratio for a reason: there are professional investors that have discovered the major problems with these companies and have acted on the information. Knowing nothing else other than the short interest ratio tells me by laying money long when many others are laying it short, I am part of a lonely minority. In addition, I have put less research into these short squeeze picks, so make that two strikes against me. Despite this, I have yet to worry about the picks and their performance. I still have a substantial cash position to spend on them, so I still have a ways to go before I am bankrupt. My short squeeze picks as of 2-21 are as follows:

WGO, CCU, TOC, GY, BRC, BHS, CC, TWP, SFE, BLG, GTN, SIRI, HZO, GHS, CRZ

I set a limit order for about 30 short squeeze candidates, and the ones above met the limit. Since I only have $5000 on the line with each buy in, I looked forward to being wrong on so I could get to doubling and tripling down. So far, only two plays, GHS and GTN crossed below the 5% threshold for doubling down, and GTN has dropped enough that I'll be doubling again soon. The rest have been rather calm. CCU (Clear Channel) actually popped 12% on great earnings news the day after my buy in, but I didn't see it until the markets closed. It has since retreated 5%, but I fully expect it to break back through the 10% mark and I can dump it.

I have no limit order to sell, only because when a short squeeze candidate actually gets "short squeezed" it can rocket upward and a limit sell order can make you miss potential profits. If one of them does pop, I have found the best policy is to let it bounce off its price ceiling before selling, but watch it closely.

Throughout this competition, I will be buying short squeeze plays and rating their performance once I sell the position. Here's my own "jaudio shorts" rating system of my short squeeze plays.

A---20% plus gain.
B---10-20% gain
C---0-10% gain
D---0-5% loss
F---5% plus loss

My sell criteria are simple.

1. Sell any position that has a 10% plus gain
2. Sell any position within 30-40 days after initial buy, regardless of gain or loss
3. Sell any position with a 10% loss after being "all in" at $30k.

Sell Rule #1 is in place because a 10% or more gain fits my definition of a "pop". A real short squeeze pop will be well beyond 10%, however, I will be content with 10%, and if I miss out on potential future profits, no problem. It's the cost of doing business. Sell Rule #2 is in place because none of these short squeeze plays are "long term" buys. Either they pop short term, or I will lose money. No use holding them longer than 40 days. Sell Rule #3 is in place to stop the bleeding before things could get worse. It's that simple. The rules are in place, and I will trade by them come hell or high water.

For the rest of my portfolio, I have been able to withstand some of the hits the markets have been taking as of late. I still have too much money shorting China with FXP, and it leaves me vulnerable, especially because FXP swings wildly. Although I am trying to trim my position in FXP, it hit my mark for a limit buy at just under $86. I was able to dump the buy with a 10% gain, but I would still like to see it break $100 so I could reduce the position to 4% of my portfolio. The other shorts in my portfolio all have limit sell orders for further reduction, although I won't totally abandon the shorts. On the long side, I have some money in GLD, and SDY, which have weathered the storm nicely. I really would like to see the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P dip into bear territory for a few weeks before I start going long. Going long looks more and more attractive, but it's a little too early. I'll give it some serious thought around mid March.

Until then, I still have a lot of money aside in cash, currency ETFs, and bond ETFs. All told, it is almost $300k, but I stay in compliance thanks to the ETFs. It's pretty conservative, but it will allow me to unleash when the time is right.

It's been fun so far.

---Jonathan

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In Defense of Ben and Other Musings

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Question: Name the last time someone said anything good about Ben Bernanke?

Find yourself scratching your head? No problem, you are in good company. Between the jabs of Helicopter Ben, the Bernanke put, and comments about being the evil spawn of Arthur F. Burns, there really isn't anything good to say about him. Stagflation anyone? It's all Ben's fault, right?

I've had my own complaints and rumblings about Mr. Bernanke, but I think I may have jumped the gun and will offer a few opinions as to why Mr. Bernanke and the rest of the FED members are not a bunch of oxygen deprived cretins.

First of all, it's easy to criticize the guy at the top when things aren't going well. Keeping rates as low as they were for as long as they were can be laid at the feet of Mr. Greenspan, with Mr. Bernanke being an unindicted, co-conspirator at best. The "mess" we are in right now isn't a result of one guy doing one thing at one time. It's a snowball that has steadily grown larger for several years.

1. Do we blame the FED entirely for keeping rates too low for too long?

2. Do we blame lenders that threw money at people (tricked?) that had no way of
making their house payments, with "liar loans" and the like?

3. Do we blame homeowners who didn't have the credit, the income, or the
discipline to prepare for the day their ARM would re-set?

4. Do we blame investors for quickly demanding and paying top dollar for anything
related to real estate, including sub-prime loans?

5. Do we blame the government for wanting everyone to be a homeowner, even those
who shouldn't be? (Should everyone be a homeowner?)

6. Do we blame everyone for thinking that property only goes up, up, up? (house of
cards, anyone?)

Feel free to add a few more to the blame list. What's done is done, and to quote a favorite movie of mine, "It's a big $#@% sandwich, and we're all gonna have to take a bite". Those comrades in arms will know which movie I am referring to.

And biting we are. Those non-speculators and prime mortgage people are suffering the fallout despite their acts of being responsible. Why should people suffer for being responsible? Give that one to the theologians when talking about the problem of evil.

Which brings us full circle, back to the man in question, Ben Bernanke. Last August when the credit engine seized, should he and the FED just kept the status quo? I thought so at the time, but the more carnage about the credit market that gets revealed, the more I am thinking the FED was right. The rate cuts will end up making the recession less severe, although painful like any recession. Since the rate cuts take several months to work their way into the economy, we probably won't be seeing any effects until mid summer, so until then we should brace for more bad news. Hopefully the rate cuts will be finished by the next FED meeting, since the next ride on this coaster will be inflation fighting with rate hikes. We may have over steered right and will soon be over steering left. What's a FED chairman to do? Housing will finally reach equilibrium, but when? Prices will continue to drop until the vultures come in and clean up the mess. The vultures are good for us. They'll get rid of this supply glut of houses and property a lot faster than a Congress dangling carrots in front of the irresponsible buyers who bear a portion of the blame. We will take the hit, lick our wounds, and get back to business. In other words, the FED had no other choice last September, and they saw the seriousness of the situation better than most. I have disagreed and criticized the FED over the past few months, but I was wrong. I don't like inflation, and I don't like the situation the economy is in, but the markets will work it all out. I believe in free markets, and I believe the free market will correct itself if we can just stay out of the way ($160 billion anyone?). I'll revisit this opinion in a few months to do further Monday morning quarterbacking.

As far as my portfolio is concerned, it has taken a bit of a hit this week, mostly because of my position in FXP, EWV, EEV, and EFU; all of which are Ultra short ETFs for China, Japan, emerging markets, and Europe/Asia Pacific. I have taken profits in these over time in small chunks, but the pullback made me suffer a little more than my liking. FXP hit two of my limit prices to buy, so I am back up to over 9% of my portfolio shorting China. My original intention was to trim my position in FXP down to about $30k, but the price was right to buy and buy I did. EWV, EEV, and EFU positions remain the same since I already have 100k on the table shorting China.

Along with shorting the overseas markets, I have $40k in foreign currency ETFs and a bearish US dollar ETF which all do well with the fall of the US dollar. I have been using all of the currency ETFs as a short term place to park extra cash and remain in compliance. They have yielded a return of a little over 3% so far, a mere pittance for the leaders, but satisfactory for me until we get later in the game.

The bond ETFs in my portfolio have been rather boring, returning - .5% on the 100k that I have parked there. Again, I am not too worried since the bonds are for diversification and can be emergency money if the time comes.

I have been satisfied with the performance of GLD, streetTRACKS Gold Shares and SDY, the dividend aristocrats ETF. Both have been slow and steady moving upward, handling the bumps in the markets just fine.

Finally, my short squeeze picks are performing average to below average, only because they haven't moved too much up or down. I have sold two positions, WGO and BHS for a 10% plus gain. Since I didn't have a lot of money on the line, it didn't translate into hefty profits, but I'll take a couple 10% winners from a crew of beat up companies any day. Most of them have been swinging up and down 5% from my initial buy in, so not a lot of excitement yet. I have added two more short squeeze picks to the portfolio, NCT and IMH. Until I cash out a few more, it looks like my short squeeze picks are final.

As a sharp contrast to SLO round 1 where I had minimal trades (only about 50 for the entire 6 months), I have been trading almost every day in SLO 2. However, every trader (traitor?) needs a break, so tomorrow will be no trades other than automatic limit orders. I am headed off to Seven Springs, Pa to snowboard the slopes and recharge for next week. Sayonara.

---Jonathan

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