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Potentially Valuable Research
Rating: 1.00 (5 votes)
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Sometimes a very detailed oriented researcher on a public website can produce valuable information. Please read the attached re: LTFD. I found it on the Yahoo Bulletin Board. Florida - Part 2 (1 Rating) 3-Sep-07 09:49 am Notice the date below - Florida is coming & it's coming soon, IMO: Florida Profit Corporation Principal Address
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New additions to Portfolio
Rating: 1.33 (6 votes)
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To date my portfolio has moved between 9.70 and 10.35, basically 3% +/-. And while my fund's beta is 87, providing a little less volatility than the market, I'm expecting more. To that end, I am adding two ETFs with international focus. My plan is to capture some of the global growth that is occuring. The first ETF is SLX. It invests in Steel companies, including ADRs of foreign companies. The second ETF is DBN. It invests in basic materials companies that operate outside the US. At this point I am 95% invested. I'll hold the final 5% in case some buying opportunities develop. | ||
Portfolio Review / Short Positions on my Picks
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I'm a bottoms up stock picker. I look for companies that can cost effectively recreate their unit of value creation. For ACAS, it's business loans and equity positions. For XTO, it's gas wells. For LTFD, it's bingo hall locations. For PSYS it's psychiatric hospitals. For FDS it's customers for their systems. For GIL it's wholesalers that carry their activewear. For VLO it's additional refineries. Good market or bad. Strong economy or weak, I'd expect these companies to advance. The market and the economy affect their stock price, but their fundamental prospects should remain the same throughout any market or economic cycles. Once I commit to a stock, I tend to view dips as buying opportunities. But I also spend a lot of time challenging my base assumptions to make sure I haven't missed something. This is especially so if the market isn't agreeing with my assessment of a stock. To that end I decided to review the short position ratios on my portfolio. In essence, I'm' trying to find out where the market disagrees with me and by how much. I also want to see how short positions may be affecting the performance of my stocks. Short Ratio Stock Performance to date 6.4...........GIL .............(3.09) The stocks where the shorts disagree with me most are GIL, PSYS, ACAS and FDS. Four different sectors and overall the shorts appear to be winning at this point. The average gain/loss for these four stocks is (3.5%). And the forward PEs of these stocks run from 11 to 23. The richest stock is FDS (the biggest loss). The question is, does chaos in some financial markets create a need for more or less analytic software and/or systems. I think more, although there could be some stalling of sales momentum in the short run. But FDS has had 22% quarterly sales growth recently, so there's room to maneuver. The energy sector seems like a mild short play and the stock returns are good. So there doesn't appear to be a lot of argument between the shorts and me here. Finally, the stock that very often sends people screaming when I mention it, LTFD, has zero shorts. So the little stock that has $12M a year in revenue, is up 60% ytd, trades 20K shares a day, is up 5.95% program to date, and has no one actively betting against it. | ||
A lowering Fed floats all boats.
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I took a look at my top three gainers this week in an effort to see where my gains came from; The Fed or stock fundamentals. Here are the stocks and their gains: GIL (Gildan Activewear) +20% All three stock/ETFs exceeded the S&P's 3.4% weekly gain. Prior to the Fed's announcement of a .50 cut in the Fed funds rate and a similar cut in the discount rate, Gildan had gained 10% on news of their acquisition of a sock manufacturer. On Friday GIL advanced another 10% for a weekly gain of 20%. Clearly the rate cut didn't hurt GIL, but the driver of their stock price increase was their acquisition, it's acretive effect on earnings, and the prospect of increased growth. If you'll recall, I added SLX and DBN to get some international exposure in the portfolio. Given that growth in Europe, Asia and parts of Latin America exceed U.S. growth rates I wanted to participate in that growth. While lower interest rates in the US won't hurt these sectors (in fact a lower dollar will help U.S. steel makers in SLX) its the global economy's growth trends that are primarily driving these stocks. I tend to focus on bottoms up analysis in choosing stocks and sectors. If all my stocks are boats in the mouth of a river, and the economy is the ocean, the Fed is the tide. If I buy good boats, they will float in most weather and rise and fall with most tides. But its the power and capabilities of an individual boat that will enable it to outperform in all conditions. | ||
How I follow my stocks.
Rating: 1.25 (8 votes)
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There are several sources of info I use to follow the companies whose stocks I own. First, I follow all news items on the internet relating relating to my companies / stocks. I am always looking for something that challenges or confirms my assumptions. Here are two examples of excellent analysis I recently found: PSYS in Business Week http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/sep2007/pi20070924_841452.htm?campaign_id=yhoo ACAS Press Release http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070925/netu122.html?.v=16
Secondly, I subscribe to ZACKs Equity Research to obtain independent research. I don't rely on ZACK's for buy/sell signals though. I reserve that perogative. Finally, when earnings season is upon us I listen to the conference calls of the companies whose stock I own. Over time you can gain the ability to read between the lines and read the tone of questions and answers. No rocket science here. Just some great ways to consistently review the stocks in my portfolio in a consistent and systematic manner.. | ||
3rd Quarter Wrap Up
Rating: 1.94 (16 votes)
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Whew!! The end of the quarter left me tantalizingly close to a 10% gain. My NAV was $10.99. This week I invested my last 5% in the QQQQ ETF. My desire was to get some technology exposure, since this sector is doing well. If you'll recall, I also used ETFs to gain exposure to global growth and basic materials, (DBN & SLX) This strategy appears to be working well. The QQQQ advanced 1.86% since I bought it this week. The SLX is my biggest gainer at 18.45% since I bought it a while back. And DBN is up 12.06%. The interesting thing about this contest with its 5 month term, is that it has made me much more responsive to current trends in sectors. As I've said, I'm a bottoms up stock picker and I've got a bias towards value. So I'm prone to buy and hold and hold and sometimes hold some more, until the rest of the world sees what I see. (And generally, it does turn out that way.) But, what I have been leaving on the table are some exploitable short term trends. ETFs enable me to participate in these, when I don't have specific industry knowledge or a pick in a certain sector. Also, a while back I lowered my stake in XTO and put that money to work in FDS. It was a good move. To date FDS has advanced 20% and XTO 13%. So that belief that FDS had more upside than XTO short term was well founded. Finally, this week I dumped VLO. It was just about even and I began to doubt an upside. It is operating at peak capacity and exploiting its ability to refine sour crude to maximize margins, but how will the company grow?? How will it recreate its fundamental unit of value creation - refineries? Will they build in the US? Don't think so. Will they buy other refiners? They went through an era of acquisitions when prices were low. Now? I'm not so sure there are a lot of takeover candidates. Don't get me wrong. They are a really strong company but I just can't articulate a growth scenario. And their PE may move to 10 instead of 6, which would add about $40 a share, but if $85 a barrel oil isn't a catalyst, I'm not sure what would be. I took my VLO stake and put it into NIHD NII Holdings, a telecom company that serves US and Latin America. They have 12% margins and 40% growth rates. | ||
