No other top 20 NAV contender has a post in the top 50 posts.

dishwasher is the 2/5 favorite to win and has no competition.

#34 jslIRA2007 About my new buy HSOA
Shows 9 votes and 14 score on Top 50. Has had 13 votes and 26 score for several days.

#41 jczerw 3rd Quarter Wrap Up
Shows 7 votes and 13 score on Top 50. Has had 16 votes and 31 score for several days.

Just FYI. Hopefully it will get fixed soon.

dishwasher (3/5) is in the lead with the #2 NAV and 9 (count em - 9) top 50 posts. His average vote count is 29 votes per blog post.

MagickNiner (3-1) has improved his position from last week. His NAV is #4 and he has 2 of the top 50 posts, with an average of 16 votes each.

jslRA2007(5-1) is still in the hunt with the #6 NAV and 1 top 50 post.

Finally, KC10 and pkauk (both 6-1) have NAVs # 8 and 14 respectively and each have 1 top 50 post.

Unless dishwasher falls out of the top 20 NAVs, it would appear he will be the winner. He also has a dedicated fan club for his posts. It would not surprise me if he held most of the top 50 post spots by the close of the competition.

jslRA2006 and demonhawk86 have NAVs of $13.46 and $13.26. They also have posts in the top 50 favorites at spots 22 and 29. I make them 5/2 contenders.

Finally, MagickNiner and pkauk have NAVs of $12.76 and $12.69 and top 50 posts at 38 and 29. I put them at 5-1.

Once again, I think the winner will come from the top 20 NAVs and be a top post vote getter. dishwasher averages 13 votes for his top 50 posts. Few competitors hit that average, so it appears dishwasher has a fan club that will insure his standings. And of course, his stock picking ability seals the deal.

Best of luck to you all. I'll continue this handicapping update if interest appears to warrant it.

A few days after my initial purchase the stock price began to fall. No news was reported, so I added again. The first purchase was at 81.66, the second at 73.65. The price continued to fall.
It wasn't until Monday evening that news came that S's CEO was resigning. But so what? NIHD was spun off from S in 2003. And in the last two years NIHD has advanced 80% while S has only advanced 20%. And they are different businesses. So on 10/9 I added again at 69.86. My cost basis is now 79.63.

The interesting thing is that the price of NIHD fell from a forward PE of 22 to 19. S's forward PE is also 19. But NIHD's margins and growth rate are 12 and 40. And S's margin is less than 1 and their growth rate is low single digits. It looks to me like there was knowledge of the CEO resignation at S, prior to the announcement, and that some institutional players took the NIHD premium off the table in advance of the news.

So, did I step on a landmine? Not really. I certainly would have rather made my move a week later, but the fundamentals of NIHD remain strong and there isn't a strong linkage to S. I think
some institutions got nervous. A conference call on the 25th by NIHD should help.

So, I didn't step on a land mine, but I did stumble into a hole. VLO is up 10% since I sold it, and NIHD has fallen 10% since I bought it. The move hurt my portfolio in the short term, but I'm confident it will play out positively by the end of the competition.

I believe that the judges will need to pick someone who finishes in the top 20. If they don't this will be a writing contest and not performance based. Here are three contestants that I believe lead the pack:

dishwaster is # 5 in total returns and off the lead by only 3%. And what a poster!!! In the top 50 posts he holds the #3, #12, #14, #17, #21 , #24, and #26 spots. That's 14% of the topt 50 posts. I make dishwasher the even money favorite to win at this point.

Behind by several lengths are gooddaze and pkauk. They are neck and neck at $12.27 and $12.26 ( positions 9 and 10). gooddaze holds the #19 favorite post and pkauk's posts hold the #33 and #49 spots.. I make them both 3-1 to win at this point.

No other top 20 contestants have top 50 posts, so I don't think they are in the running.

I'll update this analysis from time to time, when there are significant changes, if you are interested.

Good luck to all.

This week I invested my last 5% in the QQQQ ETF. My desire was to get some technology exposure, since this sector is doing well. If you'll recall, I also used ETFs to gain exposure to global growth and basic materials, (DBN & SLX) This strategy appears to be working well. The QQQQ advanced 1.86% since I bought it this week. The SLX is my biggest gainer at 18.45% since I bought it a while back. And DBN is up 12.06%.

The interesting thing about this contest with its 5 month term, is that it has made me much more responsive to current trends in sectors. As I've said, I'm a bottoms up stock picker and I've got a bias towards value. So I'm prone to buy and hold and hold and sometimes hold some more, until the rest of the world sees what I see. (And generally, it does turn out that way.) But, what I have been leaving on the table are some exploitable short term trends. ETFs enable me to participate in these, when I don't have specific industry knowledge or a pick in a certain sector.

Also, a while back I lowered my stake in XTO and put that money to work in FDS. It was a good move. To date FDS has advanced 20% and XTO 13%. So that belief that FDS had more upside than XTO short term was well founded.

Finally, this week I dumped VLO. It was just about even and I began to doubt an upside. It is operating at peak capacity and exploiting its ability to refine sour crude to maximize margins, but how will the company grow?? How will it recreate its fundamental unit of value creation - refineries? Will they build in the US? Don't think so. Will they buy other refiners? They went through an era of acquisitions when prices were low. Now? I'm not so sure there are a lot of takeover candidates. Don't get me wrong. They are a really strong company but I just can't articulate a growth scenario. And their PE may move to 10 instead of 6, which would add about $40 a share, but if $85 a barrel oil isn't a catalyst, I'm not sure what would be.

I took my VLO stake and put it into NIHD NII Holdings, a telecom company that serves US and Latin America. They have 12% margins and 40% growth rates.
I believe there is more upside in NIHD than VLO.

First, I follow all news items on the internet relating relating to my companies / stocks. I am always looking for something that challenges or confirms my assumptions. Here are two examples of excellent analysis I recently found:

PSYS in Business Week

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/sep2007/pi20070924_841452.htm?campaign_id=yhoo

ACAS Press Release

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070925/netu122.html?.v=16

Both of these items offered confirmation of the fundamentals I believe are at work in these companies and confirm my belief that these stocks will advance.

Secondly, I subscribe to ZACKs Equity Research to obtain independent research. I don't rely on ZACK's for buy/sell signals though. I reserve that perogative.

Finally, when earnings season is upon us I listen to the conference calls of the companies whose stock I own. Over time you can gain the ability to read between the lines and read the tone of questions and answers.

No rocket science here. Just some great ways to consistently review the stocks in my portfolio in a consistent and systematic manner..

GIL (Gildan Activewear) +20%
SLX (Market Vectors Steel ETF) +10%
DBN (Wisdeom Tree International Materials ETF) + 8%

All three stock/ETFs exceeded the S&P's 3.4% weekly gain.

Prior to the Fed's announcement of a .50 cut in the Fed funds rate and a similar cut in the discount rate, Gildan had gained 10% on news of their acquisition of a sock manufacturer. On Friday GIL advanced another 10% for a weekly gain of 20%. Clearly the rate cut didn't hurt GIL, but the driver of their stock price increase was their acquisition, it's acretive effect on earnings, and the prospect of increased growth.

If you'll recall, I added SLX and DBN to get some international exposure in the portfolio. Given that growth in Europe, Asia and parts of Latin America exceed U.S. growth rates I wanted to participate in that growth. While lower interest rates in the US won't hurt these sectors (in fact a lower dollar will help U.S. steel makers in SLX) its the global economy's growth trends that are primarily driving these stocks.

I tend to focus on bottoms up analysis in choosing stocks and sectors. If all my stocks are boats in the mouth of a river, and the economy is the ocean, the Fed is the tide. If I buy good boats, they will float in most weather and rise and fall with most tides. But its the power and capabilities of an individual boat that will enable it to outperform in all conditions.

Good market or bad. Strong economy or weak, I'd expect these companies to advance. The market and the economy affect their stock price, but their fundamental prospects should remain the same throughout any market or economic cycles.

Once I commit to a stock, I tend to view dips as buying opportunities. But I also spend a lot of time challenging my base assumptions to make sure I haven't missed something. This is especially so if the market isn't agreeing with my assessment of a stock. To that end I decided to review the short position ratios on my portfolio. In essence, I'm' trying to find out where the market disagrees with me and by how much. I also want to see how short positions may be affecting the performance of my stocks.

Short Ratio Stock Performance to date

6.4...........GIL .............(3.09)
6.3...........PSYS ......... 3.05
4.5...........ACAS.......... 2.31
2.9...........FDS........... (5.79)
1.8.......... XTO............. 3.33
1.4.......... VLO............. 1.19
0.............LTFD............. 5.95

The stocks where the shorts disagree with me most are GIL, PSYS, ACAS and FDS. Four different sectors and overall the shorts appear to be winning at this point. The average gain/loss for these four stocks is (3.5%). And the forward PEs of these stocks run from 11 to 23. The richest stock is FDS (the biggest loss). The question is, does chaos in some financial markets create a need for more or less analytic software and/or systems. I think more, although there could be some stalling of sales momentum in the short run. But FDS has had 22% quarterly sales growth recently, so there's room to maneuver.

The energy sector seems like a mild short play and the stock returns are good. So there doesn't appear to be a lot of argument between the shorts and me here.

Finally, the stock that very often sends people screaming when I mention it, LTFD, has zero shorts. So the little stock that has $12M a year in revenue, is up 60% ytd, trades 20K shares a day, is up 5.95% program to date, and has no one actively betting against it.

To that end, I am adding two ETFs with international focus. My plan is to capture some of the global growth that is occuring. The first ETF is SLX. It invests in Steel companies, including ADRs of foreign companies. The second ETF is DBN. It invests in basic materials companies that operate outside the US.

At this point I am 95% invested. I'll hold the final 5% in case some buying opportunities develop.

Florida - Part 2 (1 Rating) 3-Sep-07 09:49 am
Caution: They have formed corporations before & have never used them. There is no guarantee this one will bear fruit but it makes perfect sense. Jeff has been hinting about Florida forever and Pensacola is about 60 miles from Mobile, so it's basically in the Alabama region.

Notice the date below - Florida is coming & it's coming soon, IMO:

Florida Profit Corporation
PENSACOLA ONE, INC.
Filing Information
Document Number P07000095184
FEI Number NONE
Date Filed 08/23/2007
State FL
Status ACTIVE

Principal Address
2501 NORTH LAMAR BOULEVARD
AUSTIN TX 78705
Mailing Address
2501 NORTH LAMAR BOULEVARD
AUSTIN TX 78705
Registered Agent Name & Address
INCORPORATING SERVICES, LTD.
1540 GLENWAY DRIVE
TALLAHASSEE FL 32301 US
Officer/Director Detail
Name & Address
Title PT
ZINN, TROY D
2501 NORTH LAMAR BOULEVARD
AUSTIN TX 78705
Title VPS
CHILINSKI, RICHARD
2501 NORTH LAMAR BOULEVARD
AUSTIN TX 78705
Title D
MINCH, JEFFREY L
2501 NORTH LAMAR BOULEVARD
AUSTIN TX 78705
Annual Reports
No Annual Reports Filed
Document Images
08/23/2007 -- Domestic Profit

If LTFD is entering its long awaited growth phase, with the assistance of their institutional investor, additional movement in the stock could be forthcoming. The recent purchase of two corporations in TX with bingo licenses, the purchase of 15% of the company by the institutional investor, and now the creation of this Florida subsidiary, do auger well.

The XTO / FDS allocation shift seems to have been a good move. XTO which was reduced to 9% ,has fallen 1.73%, while FDS, which was increased to 15%, has advanced 3.43%.

Bottom line, there's more short term upside in FDS than XTO.