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...in 2002 has now morphed into astronomical gains within my personal portfolio, and similarly my entry into a large position of this stock has paid off handsomely in the three days I have owned the stock in the SLO. I have been heavily invested in Apple (aapl) for several years now, occasionally skimming small portions of profit off my stake to pay bills and pay down credit debt.
On the surface, this looks like a very risky strategy, but having cost averaged in below $10 a share, I don't think even at this lofty valuation level I am overly emotional about a stock that has gone from being a hopeless laughing stock to the darling of Wall Street lately. In fact, as my own personal blog entries http://jeffkalnitz.com/journal/ have indicated for several years now, I think there is still considerable upside in Apple, and it is not a question of if the stock reaches $200, but when this will happen.
Remember when Michael Dell famously indicated he wasn't interested in buying Apple Computer, siting that it wasn't even worth the value of its parts at under $5 a share? To me, this served as a strong contrarian indicator for my initial entry level purchase. Once Steve Jobs returned to the company, the stock was primed to climb a wall of worry and doubting Thomases, and now is worth something like twice the market cap of DELL! Ouch.
I think that 5 months from now aapl will be higher than it is today, even after it's most recent run-up. Shorting aapl seems to me too much like playing Russian Roulette, although there is a good chance the stock will pull back after Wednesday's new products announcements.
I have been frequenting the Apple Stores for years now, and this has been a scenario that would make Peter Lynch jump with stock buying joy. Apple just might be the best run retail play in the world right now. Even when the rest of the mall is dead, the Apple Store is usually mobbed. And the difference in the AT&T Stores before and after they found the Apple religion is absolutely astonishing. Everything Apple touches shines with a sheen that looks a lot like a shiny gold bar. With the holiday season upon us (beginning with Wednesday's festivities, and back-to-school buying), we may see aapl reach $175 by year's end, which just happens to coincide with the current SLO's time frame, if I've got that straight. Of course I've been wrong before, just not when it comes to aapl (so far).
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