Visually Compelling TA

Many pundits the last few months have boldly stated that the recovery from the present economic malaise will be long and slow and painful. The common thread in all these pronouncements is they never seem to offer any data to support this assertion. Nor do they claim any particular model has been used to guide them into this conclusion. The best they offer are supporting arguments such as "loss of consumer confidence" or that it is "a most difficult business environment."

It is apparent to me they are really saying it is difficult environment for THEIR business. It is also noticeable consumers are exhausted from an oversupply of indistinguishable goods and services. I suggest that macro conditions are quite fertile for business as a whole (granted some are not). First, monetary policy is now loosened and Governments world-wide are manically printing money. Further, Governments have promised they have more stimulus mechanisms in their toolbox and will not hesitate to use them. Second, energy costs are down. Almost all products have a notable amount of energy cost - in their transport if not their manufacture. Third, as unemployment rises the cost of labor will decrease and an overall workplace migration from inefficient businesses to innovative businesses is enabled. I posit the present business environment is amenable to astute enterprises.

I'll close with a small consumer anecdote. I spent two weeks looking for a Wii Fit and found them absent from retailer shelves. Wii, and the Wii Fit in particular, are unique and creative products. I noticed the electronic games shelves were stacked high with various Guitar Hero products largely indistinguishable one from one another. Suggested short: Activitision (ATVI). Suggested long: Nintendo (NTDOY.PK).

Comments: View Comments |  Tuesday December 9, 2008