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The rumor is that you're supposed to buy low and sell high, I know it works with comic books, but it's awful hard to do with stocks. If you're lucky you buy high and sell higher, if you're like me you buy high - then hope no one noticed you bought some...
...then as the ship spirals downwards, you don't have a legion of folks giggling.
Call me "Ellis Island" - I want your "sick, wounded, and weak of heart" - you can keep all them high flying fluffy stocks the guy behind you at the grocery told you was "a sure thing."
It's a lesson I learned in SLO1 from Dishwasher; a nice stock pummelled unmercifully by the crowd, limping battered from the fray - with little skinny guys picking on it... Sometimes there is a small bounce up afterwards - and sometimes you just grab it knowing that like the Phoenix, it may "rise from the ashes."
It helps when you like the stock anyways - that way when it falls like a meteor (because it really is a dog) you don't feel so bad. This week Bunge (BG) got pummeled nicely, and like any fat arsed vulture I waited until the rest of you had your way with the Old Gal, then bought another 800 shares.
Thanks.
The entire agriculture industry has been "fluffy" in that last 6 months, everyone has piled in on the hint of fertilizer riches, accelerating crop prices, and the immediate boon of corn ethanol. Great reasons to get into a burgeoning area - but is it the real reason to own these stocks?
Remember - the trick to make oodles of money is to either be really lucky, really smart, or inherit the cash. I'm banking on the latter - as my investing strategy is only slightly above the "pond scum" indicator... In all cases, the large coin is being aware of a trend before Wall Street knows about it.
My theory on agriculture hinges on a number of uncomfortable issues - none are among those mentioned above, so acquiring these when the "crowd" starts to spurn them is a really good thing.
The biggest issue is there are too many people on the planet, and both developed and developing countries are running out of ways to feed them, running out of arable land to grow food, and running out of water to irrigate what little is left. Companies like Monsanto (MON) and Bunge are likely to reap continued profits over the next half century as their services will be increasingly in demand. Monsanto especially because of their many disease and drought resistant genetic altered crop strains. More and more marginally productive land will be tilled to feed the ever increasing maw of humanity, with the entire agriculture sector to be a prime beneficiary.
Developing countries are industrializing quickly - everyone is familiar with the rapid growth of China, India, and other parts of Asia, who stands to benefit when those same farmers are handed tractors instead of water buffalo? The standard of living increases and disposable income will allow many "primitive" farmers the same tools and seed strains as westernized nations, the reward is the same thing we already enjoy - more yield per acre.
Another compelling factor is the demise of plastic. The famous quote, "every bit of plastic ever made is still here." - and that's becoming a really big problem. Just "google" a search for "North Pacific Gyre" to see some of the ecological damage that plastic is creating, and science has been working feverishly on "decomposable plastic" for more than a decade.
Guess what it's made from...
Yep, agricultural waste products ...seeds and stems and anything else we don't already eat.
Bunge happens to be one of the largest crop processors out there, and much of their processing is focused on green fuels and food products, but no one wants a big stinky plant in their backyard regardless of what it processes - so likely the beneficiaries of these new agriculture industries will be the same names that process the stuff now. They already have the plants, so who better?
Six months is too short a timeline for all this to come to pass, but it's not too short for them "stuffed suits" on Wall Street to get wind of this... They always start accumulating the stuff before the rest of us - and unload before we do, it's all part of the rigged game we play.
I'm willing to take that gamble and beat them to the punch, and I'm hoping the rest of you don't - so I can quietly accumulate a lot more.
As always, the best of luck to all participants - and don't try this at home, as I'm not a trained professional and all you're gonna do is hurt yourself needlessly.
KB
http://singlebarbed.com
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