InvestorPlace Blogs is powered by Marketocracy. Marketocracy has authorized Investor Place Blogs as an official registrar for voting through Marketocracy's Investment Research Rating service. Registered members of InvestorPlace Blogs are linked with a Marketocracy account to establish voting power based on their performance of trading and posting on stocks.
I had to stick around waiting for a package to be delivered, so I turned on the market pundits to see how things were faring. It was the "we're all gonna die" flavor - interspersed with all them well manicured fellows in nice suits urging "buying opportunity" and the usual mantra, "relax, give us your money, Mommy's gonna kiss it and make it all better..."
It was like watching a Rocky movie, he's on the ropes and unable to defend himself, relying on his youth and musculature to absorb each bone crunching blow..
...and a right to the midsection:
The 291-city report finds widespread declines, but the worst pain is found in California, where homes on average lost 6.7% of their value over the year; Florida, where homes prices declined 4.7%; and the desert Southwest, where overbuilt Arizona and Nevada continue to writhe.
...and while the referee ain't looking, a short left to the family jewels:
The outlook of U.S. consumers sank to a 17-year low this month as the job market deteriorated, while costly commodities drove producer price inflation in January to its highest in more than 26 years, according to reports that stoked fears of stagflation.
It's getting tough to watch at this point - I'm wanting to yell, "Adrian" myself - hoping someone's gonna stop the fight before Rocky's liver hits the canvas..
Today's rally came as crude oil closed at a record high of $100.88, up 1.7% from Monday, and the euro hit a new high against the dollar. The euro peaked at $1.4985 this afternoon, surpassing its old high of $1.468, set in November. Crude's big jump raised fears that gasoline could hit $4 a gallon soon.
I avert my eyes knowing the Champ is headed for the canvas bigtime ...
I hear the tell tale sound of bugles and peek through my fingers - the Cavalry is coming?
Today's rally was started when IBM Corp. (IBM, news, msgs) boosted guidance for the second quarter and announced a $15 billion stock buyback, along with a new faster computer that reduces energy costs .
Market psychology is an amazing and irrational thing. "Big Blue" buys 15 Billion worth of their own stock - and instantly dismisses the peril of the credit markets, rising food prices, $4 a gallon gasoline, and the decline of property values.
So why'd we invade Iraq? All we had to do is tell Cisco to buy 10 billion of their stock back and we would've neutralized Osama Bin Laden, rebuilt the World Trade Center, and toppled a half dozen dictators - and - it would've been cheaper!
Timing the Market is child's play, it's the irrational SOB next to you that makes it hard. I guess it falls under "we've met the enemy and he is us."
KB
http://singlebarbed.com
| 
RSS 2.0
Comments (7)
I popped you a 3 star, which brings you up to zero since someone either made a mistake or hates you. What do you think, KB? Is it time to go all in Ultra Short? I'm playing conservative . . . no stones this round.
--Jonathan
Posted by Jonathan Coyle | February 26, 2008 8:13 PM
I can't get a finger on this market yet, too many fluffy types still in it to get a good feel for what's going to happen.
Instinct suggests a blood letting coming, and Nero always fiddles first - so I'm wondering whether I'm looking at irrational people - or I'm the irrational one... go figure.
Ignore the voting scores, just like SLO1 there are a lot of folks more comfortable with crapping on you then patting you on the head.
Chin up, lad - we're all doing fine.
Uncle John: You're dead right as usual, it would be boring ... still, I have to scratch my head in wonderment sometimes...
Posted by Keith Barton | February 26, 2008 8:27 PM
Super-Duper FLY Guy,
Check your "Package" before you fail the "Short Arm " inspection.
Smoke 'em if you Caught 'em ( Shad that is -- Have you ever been to a Shad "Planking" - you fill a Shad with Horse D'Overs and then NAIL it to a Plank & put it over an open fire -- when "done", son, you toss the Shad & eat the Baked Hors D'oervres. Not So ?? )
What you have to look for is " Motivated" Buyers. Here's two examples :
Sovereign Funds - Oil Money OPEC types trying to get out of Bonds & Financials & buying STUFF & PROductive STUFF while the Dollar self-destructs & America is on a 10 cents on the ( notional ) dallar SALE.
The PBGC , which is seeing a MOUNTAIN of claims from Bankrupt Business Enterprises & Under-Funded Retirement plans, whose financial condition worsens as the Market declines and as HealthCare costs increase & legally contracted Infaltion-adjusted Cost-of-Living increases dig into current expenditures.... LYING about INFLATION has been the "WAY OUT", so far
The PBGC ( a GSE - Government Sponsored Entity ) announced last week that 45% of their
Capital "Reserves" would be put in the market
( S&P 500 ) in a vain hope of remaining Solvent. They declined to reduce Benefits paid orto RAISE Premiums to be paid by the Corporate Retirement Funds that they "Insure". It's a "Hail Mary" Pass - If it doesn't work it's over but it's worth a "SHOT".
Coigress will probably allow another None-sense "fiduciary rate of return estimate" so that CA ( Corporate America ) can avoid being Legally responsible for contributing Cash to "make-Whole" their Under-Funded ' Vested' Retirement Plans.Where is THAT going to cme from - StockHolders Equity & Piles of new debt.
After the 2001 Dot Bomb fiasco, General Motors borrowed $7 Billion ( or was it $17 Billion )
to put into their Under-Water Employee Benerit Plans. NOT a DIME went to Investment in PROductive Plant & Equipment or for Design & Development for the FUTURE. I've SEEN this Movie before
As it stands ( with a $9.5 TRILLION Federal Debt 'Ceiling', States' Budgets in serious Deficit & Local Municipalities UP to their eye-balls in debt for Cockamamie Road-Side Attractions and other " Economic Development 'SCHEMES' " - mostly Land deals and concrete pours ) , the Stock Market is our One-Note-Johnny source of SALVATION.
The PAPER Tiger FED & all the USUAL Suspects will move Heaven & Earth to PROP up this market. Especially in an Election year.
The question is :
How do I PROsper in this Environment ??
As I have oft REpeated," Money has a way of finding it's WAY back to it's RIGHTful OWNers".
In the end, though, Money is just a medium of exchange -- it's WEALTH that COUNTS !! Not So ?
RoiRRawGnIkIV
fka ( formerly known as ) VikingWarrior
PS
I COMPETE NO SLO MO' - but my SLO-2 non-Competitive Results are :
February 29, 2008 funds report for Don Lee Ferk (VikingWarrior)
DFSLF
* Name: Don Ferk Strat Lab Open Fund
* Net Asset Value (NAV): $10.83
* Compliant: Yes
* This past week
+ Return: 1.09%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of -1.66%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of -1.38%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of -0.93%): YES
* Trailing 30 days
+ Return: 7.72%
+ Did you beat the:
o S&P 500 (return of -1.86%): YES
o NASDAQ (return of -3.30%): YES
o Dow Jones (return of -1.42%): YES
I guess I JUST got LUCKY -
Posted by don ferk | March 2, 2008 11:13 AM
Keith,
My bet is on you to win the SLO-2 :) Good luck
Posted by dishwasher | March 4, 2008 10:14 AM
Thanks for the confidence, but this is going to be a rough go for all of us, I'm not sure what the future has in store - my plan is hang on with my fingernails while pretending I may know a thing or two.
Posted by Keith Barton | March 4, 2008 10:01 PM
Mr Barton, on the positive side I don't think people are "crapping on you" like Uncle John suggested. The well respected Uncle John I may add. I think people just forget to click on the rating stars which automatically gives you a zero. Is that not so? It seems to be my experience. Call me naive for being positive in people and in this market. Anyways, great article. My interpretation from your research seems to be that headlines are bearish and companies are bullish. I'll place my bets on the boards for now.
Posted by familyman | March 7, 2008 3:55 AM
"Mr. Barton" is much too formal, go with "Yo, Buckwheat" next time, as the market has a tendency to deflate all ego of late.
Thanks for the comment, although "naive" might apply to all of us if the arrow continues to head downward, taking us with it.
Posted by Keith Barton | March 7, 2008 8:08 AM