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If you went long you screamed in agony last week, and if you went short - you screamed in agony this week, now that all of us are bloodied - what do we do next?
Hope there's some porridge that's neither too hot or too cold?
Fat chance.
I had a lot of movement the last couple of weeks, nothing new really - just repositioning what I currently own into a different mix. If memory serves I've done that twice in the last 8 days, and been burned badly at every turn. I went contrarian yesterday with POT and MOS down 11 or more - adding $35,000 today as a result. I'm not buying any drinks because that barely covered the hit the shorts took (QID, SDS, SKF and SRS) - so it was cheerful, but not decisive.
It's a "sharp blade swung by madmen" - and there doesn't seem to be anything you can count on other than there will be a lot of movement in one direction or another. Safe havens don't seem to be available, and curling up in the fetal position seems to be the only defense.
I can't tell you what to do, I can't tell you what's coming next - about the only option left is enduring.
The web site is damaged horribly and I cannot tell whether the folks that aren't playing are where they're supposed to be - but if it's somewhere near where they are currently, that itself is telling. If you took your money and didn't invest a nickel - you'd be in 20th place.
Pretty sage advice from where I'm standing - as I have little to show for being the "canny" investor. You won't hear that type of advice from your broker, but it's looking better than anything offered lately.
Unrelated Stuff: Cheer's to Vad for assuming the lead in the Strategy Lab, it's nice to see someone offering something other than the tired old choices that are fast going nowhere. Traditional council in an extraordinary market has little value - and Vad is not taking the staid conventional route by any means.
KB
http://singlebarbed.com
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Comments (4)
KB:
Did you see FXP today? It was hammered over 19% today! Lucky for me I trimmed down just before the hammer dropped.....but now I am back in buying range. I only got hit 2.11% today . . . funny I say "only". You are probably up on me again....look in your rear view mirror...
----Jonathan
Posted by Jonathan Coyle | March 11, 2008 9:31 PM
No chance, I got trimmed horribly on Friday - I make it "dead even" - we're likely fighting tooth and nail just to keep head above water.
One helluva ride - I can't say I'd want to do this for a living, I value my sanity too much to do this to myself willingly.
Good Luck, and send me a rose from the finish line...
Posted by Keith Barton | March 11, 2008 9:41 PM
I've been long so I've seen the opposite side and it's pretty much the same, the swings are killing me. Yesterday was a good day. ;-)
"The web site is damaged horribly and I cannot tell whether the folks that aren't playing are where they're supposed to be - but if it's somewhere near where they are currently, that itself is telling. If you took your money and didn't invest a nickel - you'd be in 20th place."
I've been howling at the web rankings but yesterday I tried to trim a position which did get filled but never acknowledged so I had no cash to implement what I was trying to do. Someday, they will sort out the rankings and you will find there are many people that are playing (investing and compliant) that still got ranked 20th because their "Current Round" gains are incorrectly listed as 0.00. I'm tired of being ranked as if I am not investing. I personally think the folks that are not yet compliant over the necessary percentage of the time are placed at the bottom.
It's also telling that only 19 people "seemed" to be above break even which leads me to believe most of these folks have been playing the shorts very successfully.
Good luck,
Uncle John
Posted by Uncle John | March 12, 2008 10:36 AM
I've been on the fence with both, and I would be the last to say "successful" - more like I have a sore crotch and little to show for it.
It may be "mattress" time, yank the money and stuff it into a dark corner, hoping no one finds out.
Posted by Keith Barton | March 12, 2008 7:28 PM