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It's simply getting tiring, some nicely dressed fellow is interviewed by CNBC - whose reporters are busy stumbling over the "6.4 Billion Dollar Question" ... "Bob, Is it time? Are we at the Bottom yet, izzit a Bottom, It's a BOTTOM, right?"
The Suit knows what's expected, it's like shaking your leg free of some amorous canine, " ...we see a bottom in the 3rd quarter - maybe sooner... " Whatever else he would have said is lost, the microphone wrested from his grasp as some well fed, perfectly coifed, cheerleader crows in delight...
I'm an "Old Guy" and I've seen this too many times before. The scenario is painfully simple, which is why its so hideously effective.
BAD THING HAPPENS: Something upsets the Market and everyone flees in terror. Money managers and brokers gash themselves - tossing and turning fitfully, unable to sleep - knowing all that money is languishing in checking accounts and they can't churn the hapless investor like butter.
COMMENTATORS BEMOAN HOW THE "Little Guy" WAS HURT: This is their way of making you feel they're your friend and have empathy for you, your college age children, your unreasonable mortgage, and the high cost of everything.
CHEERLEADER'S EMERGE: It's Over ... Woot, now we can all make limitless profits. "We think it's a Bottom ... no, a lot of us suspect it's a bottom ... rather, most of Wall Street predicts it's a bottom, therefore IT IS a bottom. We want to welcome the trodden upon "little guys" back - so we can make enormous profits (because we already bought all the good stuff) together - because we like you .
THE BIG GET BIGGER: Temporarily the "little guys" pour over the cliff; the greedy and foolish are first, then the smarter and wiser start to pause - but they're pushed over by the press of bodies behind them. Pretty soon even the onlooker - disinterested types figure something "cool" is happening and they get too close enough and swept in with the crowd.
The canny investment types start pulling their profits (because they learned how to do that) leaving the rest of us hoping we're not the last guy on the pile.
BAD THING HAPPENS: We flee in terror trying not to be the last guy in the market.
Rinse and repeat, ad nauseum, ad infinitum.
I guess this is merely a long way of saying, "I don't think we've bottomed yet."
KB
http://singlebarbed.com
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