...and if that ain't the Question, it should be...

I just wanted to thank a lot of you folks for your thoughts and theories regarding investing - it was a treat to hear untrammeled advice without some shylock attempting to take a percentage. Some earned me money, others didn't, but I could say that about all of my hairbrained picks as well.

In SLO1 I learned how to bet "against" as well as "for" stocks, folks like Vad and Jaudio, VikingWarrior, and Duffbeer, were generous with their opinion and that helped a lot of contestants. SLO2 was a different story, I learned never to presume anything - and constantly battled my own greed.

I see my performance as more like a 60% increase - meaning I got 10% ahead, 6 times - then got spanked harshly in between. It wasn't always fun, but like when Ma peeled your pants off as a kid, she sure enough drove that lesson home ... usually assisted by a belt.

Mr Market is no different, the lessons are expensive and the bruises are merit badges.

Finishing in positive territory suggests you are doing better than the Lion's share of the professionals - and the contest is ending without the cheering crowds and admirers, more like we're the last wino given the door when the bars closing...

It was great fun.

KB
http://singlebarbed.com

It goes like this; " I wonder if Tech Stocks are ready for a bounce?" You buy a taste of AAPL and dab of CSCO - and when they retreat the next day you're out as fast as you got in.

"Maybe refiners are poised to make a move..." - and they retreat just as quickly.

"Brazil looks tasty..." - nope, you're on the sidelines again the following day.

Ninety five percent of your portfolio is tied up in things you're comfortable with - leaving you that last 40K for you to discover the next Microsoft at $1.00 per share, or get your feet wet in some promising, but as yet unknown, alternative energy company - or even take a flyer on something you read about somewhere.

Mostly you lose money, but occasionally there's a plum.

I'm sitting on food and energy, alternative energy really, anything that can be used as an alternative to gasoline. Coal and Natural Gas are the preferred stocks and both industries are rising in lockstep with oil prices.

Food is still my longterm stance, and the floods in Iowa helped a great deal. Iowa being one of the bastions of the corn belt, and all those crops are toast. I added DBA to my portfolio for a second time due to the rise in corn prices that I'm anticipating. It's already moved to nearly 41 (from its historic 36ish levels) and will likely go higher when the extent of the damage is revealed. US Corn feeds an awful lot of folks in other countries and it was already straining under the Ethanol demand - so I see some movement skyward.

I also expect to spend a lot more at the supermarket soon, as corn prices drive a lot of grain products, beverages, and even dog food, so the suffering will be shared by all of us.

I added small positions in Canadian Oil companies (CNQ and BQI) as they've seen a startling upsurge in prices over the last month. Most of the oil consumed by the US comes from Canada, so I expect these companies to continue their torrid pace - so long as prices remain as they are....

As the SLO2 ends in less than 40 days - remember to factor that into your investments. Oil prices will likely fall - but not in time to affect this contest. I see the summer driving season erasing the small drop in US consumption, and oil demand continues unabated.

I'm not planning on any radical changes for the last month, as long as my portfolio returns beat the piddling interest banks will pay, I figure I'm a winner, likewise for the rest of you folks.

Not much going on - just me tinkering a little with a dab of extra cash hoping for one last inspiration of pure genius. Unlikely at best, but it gives me something to prevent me from sleeping well...

I wonder if financial's are ready...

KB
http://singlebarbed.com

The Suit knows what's expected, it's like shaking your leg free of some amorous canine, " ...we see a bottom in the 3rd quarter - maybe sooner... " Whatever else he would have said is lost, the microphone wrested from his grasp as some well fed, perfectly coifed, cheerleader crows in delight...

I'm an "Old Guy" and I've seen this too many times before. The scenario is painfully simple, which is why its so hideously effective.

BAD THING HAPPENS: Something upsets the Market and everyone flees in terror. Money managers and brokers gash themselves - tossing and turning fitfully, unable to sleep - knowing all that money is languishing in checking accounts and they can't churn the hapless investor like butter.

COMMENTATORS BEMOAN HOW THE "Little Guy" WAS HURT: This is their way of making you feel they're your friend and have empathy for you, your college age children, your unreasonable mortgage, and the high cost of everything.

CHEERLEADER'S EMERGE: It's Over ... Woot, now we can all make limitless profits. "We think it's a Bottom ... no, a lot of us suspect it's a bottom ... rather, most of Wall Street predicts it's a bottom, therefore IT IS a bottom. We want to welcome the trodden upon "little guys" back - so we can make enormous profits (because we already bought all the good stuff) together - because we like you .

THE BIG GET BIGGER: Temporarily the "little guys" pour over the cliff; the greedy and foolish are first, then the smarter and wiser start to pause - but they're pushed over by the press of bodies behind them. Pretty soon even the onlooker - disinterested types figure something "cool" is happening and they get too close enough and swept in with the crowd.

The canny investment types start pulling their profits (because they learned how to do that) leaving the rest of us hoping we're not the last guy on the pile.

BAD THING HAPPENS: We flee in terror trying not to be the last guy in the market.

Rinse and repeat, ad nauseum, ad infinitum.

I guess this is merely a long way of saying, "I don't think we've bottomed yet."

KB
http://singlebarbed.com

If you look for it - there's a lot of press on the topic, both market generated and scientific. I pay more attention to the science as they don't have the vested interests that cause stock pundits to froth, and give better clues as to what's headed our way.

Asians don't care much for American rice - and with both Thailand and Vietnam ceasing exports, the price of asian rice has doubled in the last week, with even Walmart and Costco are limiting shoppers to a couple of 50 lb sacks. The Phillipines converted a lot of acreage to Palm for biofuel purposes (palm oil) and in the process became net importers of asian rice.

The American heartland has been the world's food basket for some decades, and with the biofuel mania, most of that surplus is being converted to fuel. Prices are on the rise everywhere making the obvious happen...

Marginal land is brought into production, and it must be fertilized to generate even average crops. Ditto for farmers that abandon the crop rotation scheme to replace soil nutrients, corn has to be heavily fertilized as it sucks the soil dry.

History buffs knew this - as corn and tobacco were what drove settlers west - after clearing forest and planting corn repeatedly, exhausting the soil, forcing them West to new soils and more de-forestation. It was the reason the natives taught them to put dead fish in the hole with the corn seeds, the fish would act as fertilizer.

Oil is $100 a barrel and I don't think it's returning to previous levels. Nearly 40% of the world's population is emerging from agrarian to industrialized (at the same time) and they want the same stuff you've got, so expect prices to increase on staples and exotics, as they covet an iPOD Nano as much as you do. Naturally it'll take a bit of time - they still haven't slurped all the MP3's off the Internet yet - but they will.

The Internet promised a lot of things and delivered on some of them, the "new economy" has emerged in part but it wasn't the revolutionary change we thought - more evolutionary. I feel the same thing is happening with current events and it's a new economy, evolutionary not revolutionary.

Prices will not return to prior levels, ever. Too many people are scratching for the same product, and if your kid doesn't like grits, some other kid does - and his Mom will buy them.

Market pundits point to the growth in earnings of DOW components, stagnant or falling in the US and rising rapidly outside the US. Prices used to fall when we hit harsh economic times and with this larger worldly economy, there will always be someone a little better off than we are.

The biofuel mania will play out and something will emerge, it won't be food based, more like cellulose or algae, or some refined garbage weed that can be grown in arid regions, but that won't diminish food prices back to the norm, it'll merely lower them somewhat.

Oil drilling takes many years to increase production, as wells must be drilled, pipelines laid, pumping augmented, and ships built to actually increase existing flow. That'll give these burgeoning industrial countries time to burgeon further - increasing the volume of demand as well as their population. They'll have their own class of educated young professionals yearning for BMW's and Faux Semblant sunglasses as we did - waiting for the bus slurping Mocha Latte Frappachino's and wolfing a Lemon Danish, they're just like us - and only a little ways behind in their tastes.

As oil climbs further we'll find something to offset it briefly or permanently, huge dollars will be available from these petroleum giants to solve the Oil Sands / Oil Shale issue - or some breakthrough in solar will be affected, but it won't be cheap. Any revolutionary change in energy sources will drive the petroleum companies into the mix instantly, they'll find a way to keep the price high while they retool to whatever emerges, and in the process drop the Saudi family like yesterday's newspaper.

In the US we'll be conserving fuel and championing "Green" products like the second coming of Jesu Christo. We'll be scolding neighbors for wasteful lawn watering and not seperating their paper from plastic. While we decry the awfulness of it all they'll be enjoying 500HP V-8's as the new status symbol in India and China, and slurping the petrol as we did. Naturally, we'll forget we did it, and complain about their wanton violations of CO2 and Mother Nature.

In the 50's your "carbon footprint" was the amount of rubber you could lay down before traction took hold, it was the days before "Posi-Traction" so we only counted the one tire...

Get used to it, these are the Good Old Days, and they're ... never ... coming back.

Portfolio Moves 4/11/08 - 4/25/08

Sold half of my holdings in POT and MOS, 33% of my holdings in MON, BG
- Locking in profits on the Big Four, nothing more. All of these are up over 20% in gains, and it's time to be prudent, not reckless.

Bought V - the Visa IPO
The most anticipated IPO of the year, and it's up 26% since my purchase. This was a "buzz" play, as everyone was headed for this beast with both feet. I will sell as soon as the momentum slows, as this is fundamentally a poor investment. Credit market problems are spilling into defaults on credit card bills, homeowners hanging on desperately to their homes using credit cards to make payments. It will get stung badly - I want out before it starts to snake downward.

Bought TSO and VLO
I like refiners and they should be running at capacity for years. They're beaten down at this point and I think they may claw back a bit over the next couple of months. They're cheap, and I like cheap. (rephrased: I like cheap if it goes up after I buy it, I don't like it if it continues south)

Bought ACI
Coal is king, especially to the newly industrialized nations bringing additional industry online. Coal is needed to make steel, and both are much beloved by Asia at the moment.

Bought UNG
I have been watching natural gas prices climb in lockstep with other fuels, as I'm not smart enough to know which company to buy in this industry, gimme the ETF

Bought IPI
This is knee jerk response to POT / MOS phenom, IPI is an IPO for yet another fertilizer company, great timing to debut when the industry is ablaze, I'm assuming it'll get a lot of fans as there aren't any "bargains" in the mix. If you want cow crap it's a simple case of buy high sell higher, same with this company.

I'm trying to diversify and am only partially successful, as I've added to FCX (Copper, Moly, Gold) with additional money. I'm still courting far too much risk for comfort, but am unable to see my way clear of it all.

Pass the Maalox, dammit...

KB
http://singlebarbed.com

Commodities are frothy, but I don't see it in the traditional mold - prices pushed far beyond reality, waiting for the pin-prick that restores balance. It's akin to the "prices pushed far beyond reality and will never return to the prior levels.." Too many people vying over too little resources, and the new "fair value" will be higher than when the bubble started.

It's a bubble still, but it's underpinnings have changed.

To protect myself I've looked afield for other industries - but haven't found solid footing anywhere. I've taken a small position in financials (BAC) - merely to dip my toe in the water. I'm taking a reach assuming the consumer is the ropes due to the decline in the dollar, the rise in inflation, and the sub-prime arena. It may drive additional business to eBay, who would benefit from the troubled times as much as WalMart. That deduction is a reach - but as I'm doing some unrelated research on the inner workings of eBay, folks attempting to raise some cash will likely turn to the online auction as often as the traditional garage sale approach.

It's morbid to be sure, but if you're about to lose your home - and can't qualify for another, you'll be renting a smaller space, requiring divestment of much of the stuff you've accumulated.

I always viewed investment professionals and lawyers to be "blood suckers" - this may be the final litmus, now I are one ...

KB
http://singlebarbed.com

I was merely attempting to rid myself of the emotional ties "winners" build in your portfolio.

Meek little lamb by night, turning into the "Butcher of Bear Stearns" at the first hint of the Opening Bell.

It worked well enough, and I was convinced I had learned all there was to know about "Emo's" and how they rode a stock up - then rode it back down again.

Last week was chilling, and as I watched my financial empire tumble about me - I discovered I was a victim of a second, more insidious form of emotional tie ... knowing what's going to happen next.

It's a hellish liability, enough evidence has accumulated to give you an unshakable feeling about what the next quarter will hold - that you ignore what's happening today. A setback is merely a "blip" and things will be made right with tomorrow's market, only tomorrow is worse.

You wake up one morning and realize you're bucking the entire market - and while the walls of the Alamo still stand - you have to ask yourself, "how in hell did I get here?"

The pundits called it a "margin call" of the Hedge Funds - who promptly unloaded all of their winners because they couldn't sell the crap that caused the problem. Now my kids are looking at City College rather than Harvard, virtually speaking...

It was a fun ride and I learned a thing or two; conviction is as big a problem as emotion, it doesn't matter whether you're right or wrong, too much of either is a liability to an investor. This market is a "cut, slash, riposte" market - and you need to be agile and unfettered of any of the normal investment dictums, get in and get the hell out.

If that's unappealing, you shouldn't be here in the first place - as letting yourself get crosswise with these blistering trends makes you a food group.

No need to fret, you're not alone - I'll be there shivering when the predators get close.

KB
http://singlebarbed.com

I've been steeling myself since last week, figuring on a "Dead Cat Bounce" when the FOMC met today. I practiced grimacing in front of the mirror - bitter beer face, scrunched up and puckered... I knew what was going to happen, and resolved myself to the beating I would endure - swearing one oath after another, "You WILL NOT buy, YOU WILL sell..." - and with all that effort and all that practice, it was still a hideous, painful experience.

Mr. Market soaring 400 points is supposed to be a time of rejoicing, you call your favorite gal, spring for an expensive dinner and rejoice - firm in your conviction you're a financial Jedi.

Me? I'm laying in the gutter next to an empty Gin bottle uncaring whether I'm stepped on - as nothing could be more painful than vanishing 100K in 24 hours. Long hours, minutes lasting an eternity...

It's odd that "going long" and getting confirmation is righteous armor, but "going short" and enduring the result is no armor at all. You're standing naked as Wall Street erupts in laughter - with half the NYMEX pointing at you, holding their gut. You're hoping it's merely your zipper that's down, but when you check you'd wished you hadn't...

Would some floor trader throw me his badge so that I can cover myself? ...

I stuck to my guns, and endured the pain - purchasing only more SKF (Ultra Short Financial) as it was down over 20 points. By then I was over the self concious thing - and the hilarity that resulted when I placed the order was something I could tolerate - what's left to hide when everyone's seen Mr Winky?

I tried to summon enough courage for one defiant, "..well, You're all wrong!" but it came out like a Volkswagen beeping at the crosswalk, a plaintive, whimpering, "bleet, bleet" - that makes the target merely giggle.

I kept flashing on all them saints and martyr's we've read about - wondering if they had the same hollow feeling as the flames started licking their feet. I surely don't know what the future brings, I've made my bed and am content to play out the hand, but the stern look I'm wearing is all bluff.

I'm still short, and growing shorter.

KB
http://singlebarbed.com

The Question of the Week is better suited on a broader topic like; "which Fast Food restaurant has the coolest uniform" (because I'll be working there next week) or "which soup kitchen serves Cambell's Noodle" - times are grim, and most pundits are missing the big picture.

With a hot stock growing cold in a single day's trading, I'm not looking to increase my long position with anything. It's not pleasant, but Bear Stearns has thrown the gauntlet, and it appears what everyone has pretended wasn't happening - is happening.

I'm sure they'll be a brief uptick as a result of the FOMC meeting this week. If so, likely I'll be trimming my long position by 20-30% selling into the 120 minute rally that results. John Markman's piece this week suggests it's prudent to do so - and I'm thinking he's right.

It's not about timing the Market, as that's beastial hard - it's about not being the last guy holding the bag.

KB
http://singlebarbed.com

Hope there's some porridge that's neither too hot or too cold?

Fat chance.

I had a lot of movement the last couple of weeks, nothing new really - just repositioning what I currently own into a different mix. If memory serves I've done that twice in the last 8 days, and been burned badly at every turn. I went contrarian yesterday with POT and MOS down 11 or more - adding $35,000 today as a result. I'm not buying any drinks because that barely covered the hit the shorts took (QID, SDS, SKF and SRS) - so it was cheerful, but not decisive.

It's a "sharp blade swung by madmen" - and there doesn't seem to be anything you can count on other than there will be a lot of movement in one direction or another. Safe havens don't seem to be available, and curling up in the fetal position seems to be the only defense.

I can't tell you what to do, I can't tell you what's coming next - about the only option left is enduring.

The web site is damaged horribly and I cannot tell whether the folks that aren't playing are where they're supposed to be - but if it's somewhere near where they are currently, that itself is telling. If you took your money and didn't invest a nickel - you'd be in 20th place.

Pretty sage advice from where I'm standing - as I have little to show for being the "canny" investor. You won't hear that type of advice from your broker, but it's looking better than anything offered lately.

Unrelated Stuff: Cheer's to Vad for assuming the lead in the Strategy Lab, it's nice to see someone offering something other than the tired old choices that are fast going nowhere. Traditional council in an extraordinary market has little value - and Vad is not taking the staid conventional route by any means.

KB
http://singlebarbed.com

It was like watching a Rocky movie, he's on the ropes and unable to defend himself, relying on his youth and musculature to absorb each bone crunching blow..

...and a right to the midsection:

The 291-city report finds widespread declines, but the worst pain is found in California, where homes on average lost 6.7% of their value over the year; Florida, where homes prices declined 4.7%; and the desert Southwest, where overbuilt Arizona and Nevada continue to writhe.

...and while the referee ain't looking, a short left to the family jewels:

The outlook of U.S. consumers sank to a 17-year low this month as the job market deteriorated, while costly commodities drove producer price inflation in January to its highest in more than 26 years, according to reports that stoked fears of stagflation.

It's getting tough to watch at this point - I'm wanting to yell, "Adrian" myself - hoping someone's gonna stop the fight before Rocky's liver hits the canvas..

Today's rally came as crude oil closed at a record high of $100.88, up 1.7% from Monday, and the euro hit a new high against the dollar. The euro peaked at $1.4985 this afternoon, surpassing its old high of $1.468, set in November. Crude's big jump raised fears that gasoline could hit $4 a gallon soon.

I avert my eyes knowing the Champ is headed for the canvas bigtime ...

I hear the tell tale sound of bugles and peek through my fingers - the Cavalry is coming?

Today's rally was started when IBM Corp. (IBM, news, msgs) boosted guidance for the second quarter and announced a $15 billion stock buyback, along with a new faster computer that reduces energy costs

Market psychology is an amazing and irrational thing. "Big Blue" buys 15 Billion worth of their own stock - and instantly dismisses the peril of the credit markets, rising food prices, $4 a gallon gasoline, and the decline of property values.

So why'd we invade Iraq? All we had to do is tell Cisco to buy 10 billion of their stock back and we would've neutralized Osama Bin Laden, rebuilt the World Trade Center, and toppled a half dozen dictators - and - it would've been cheaper!

Timing the Market is child's play, it's the irrational SOB next to you that makes it hard. I guess it falls under "we've met the enemy and he is us."

KB
http://singlebarbed.com

Careful not to blink, because if you head for the bathroom a rich man, you'll return broke - and vice versa.

Not much to report this week as I only made one sale and two purchases. I dumped GE as it has been treading water since it's earnings announcement, and took the proceeds to buy 200 more Mosaic (down 7 points since Wednesday) and 100 shares of Monsanto, merely because I like it - and it was also down nearly four points.

I could have just as easily sat on the cash, but it's always more fun to tinker. Last weeks purchases of Thompson Creek (TC) and DBA were prudent, and the SRS trade is like all double short trades - goat one minute, and genius the next - rinse and repeat.

Basically I'm standing pat, nothing has changed in my viewpoint or in the overall market prospects (in my opinion), and I'll retain the short / long ratio for another week.

I'm content to cling to JAudio's coat tails, hoping his march upward might allow me to "draft" a bit.

Good Luck - go easy on the Maalox and Tum's - as you're going to need them for the final furlong.

KB
http://singlebarbed.com

I've got hints of three in my portfolio, and the combination is enough to keep my head above water. I won't be lunching with Bill Gates anytime soon - but I won't be in the long line for the soup kitchen either.

I'm looking for good stocks that are hit 6 or more points in a single session to invoke the "Contrarian" style, I'm retaining nearly 35% of the portfolio in shorts to ensure I have a buffer for the spiral downward, and I keep alert for new stocks that hold promise and are cheap-er. Only home builders and financials are truly cheap, with good reason - so I have to settle for "less expensive" expensive stocks, if that makes sense.

We're heading downward still, and slow accumulation of companies is preferred. Parking cash in things that don't go down as much (if such a thing exists) to maintain compliance, followed by swooping in on some "soiled dove" is my strategy to date.

I added positions in Thompson Creek Metals and the commodity ETF DBA this week. DBA is a basket of grain futures tied to the price of wheat, corn, soy, and similar agricultural crops. As most crop prices remain higher than normal, and the world needs to eat in both good and bad times, this gives me additional exposure to agriculture - with a slightly different flavor.

I managed only a single "contrarian" purchase this week - buying another 250 shares of SRS, the real estate double-short ETF. Down nearly 7 points in a single day was the qualifier, and it popped back up in the next two sessions nicely.

Last week's "tarnished strumpet" Bunge (BG) popped nearly 6 points after I bought it, and slowly settled back over the course of the week. Both trades have yielded positive dollars, and that's all I ask. This style of trade requires amazing resolve - each time you pull the trigger you're catching a falling knife, you're hoping you'll catch it by the handle but you're never quite certain. So far I would consider it the most difficult (from the emotional perspective) style I've learned.

As always, luck to thee.

KB
http://singlebarbed.com

...then as the ship spirals downwards, you don't have a legion of folks giggling.

Call me "Ellis Island" - I want your "sick, wounded, and weak of heart" - you can keep all them high flying fluffy stocks the guy behind you at the grocery told you was "a sure thing."

It's a lesson I learned in SLO1 from Dishwasher; a nice stock pummelled unmercifully by the crowd, limping battered from the fray - with little skinny guys picking on it... Sometimes there is a small bounce up afterwards - and sometimes you just grab it knowing that like the Phoenix, it may "rise from the ashes."

It helps when you like the stock anyways - that way when it falls like a meteor (because it really is a dog) you don't feel so bad. This week Bunge (BG) got pummeled nicely, and like any fat arsed vulture I waited until the rest of you had your way with the Old Gal, then bought another 800 shares.

Thanks.

The entire agriculture industry has been "fluffy" in that last 6 months, everyone has piled in on the hint of fertilizer riches, accelerating crop prices, and the immediate boon of corn ethanol. Great reasons to get into a burgeoning area - but is it the real reason to own these stocks?

Remember - the trick to make oodles of money is to either be really lucky, really smart, or inherit the cash. I'm banking on the latter - as my investing strategy is only slightly above the "pond scum" indicator... In all cases, the large coin is being aware of a trend before Wall Street knows about it.

My theory on agriculture hinges on a number of uncomfortable issues - none are among those mentioned above, so acquiring these when the "crowd" starts to spurn them is a really good thing.

The biggest issue is there are too many people on the planet, and both developed and developing countries are running out of ways to feed them, running out of arable land to grow food, and running out of water to irrigate what little is left. Companies like Monsanto (MON) and Bunge are likely to reap continued profits over the next half century as their services will be increasingly in demand. Monsanto especially because of their many disease and drought resistant genetic altered crop strains. More and more marginally productive land will be tilled to feed the ever increasing maw of humanity, with the entire agriculture sector to be a prime beneficiary.

Developing countries are industrializing quickly - everyone is familiar with the rapid growth of China, India, and other parts of Asia, who stands to benefit when those same farmers are handed tractors instead of water buffalo? The standard of living increases and disposable income will allow many "primitive" farmers the same tools and seed strains as westernized nations, the reward is the same thing we already enjoy - more yield per acre.

Another compelling factor is the demise of plastic. The famous quote, "every bit of plastic ever made is still here." - and that's becoming a really big problem. Just "google" a search for "North Pacific Gyre" to see some of the ecological damage that plastic is creating, and science has been working feverishly on "decomposable plastic" for more than a decade.

Guess what it's made from...

Yep, agricultural waste products ...seeds and stems and anything else we don't already eat.

Bunge happens to be one of the largest crop processors out there, and much of their processing is focused on green fuels and food products, but no one wants a big stinky plant in their backyard regardless of what it processes - so likely the beneficiaries of these new agriculture industries will be the same names that process the stuff now. They already have the plants, so who better?

Six months is too short a timeline for all this to come to pass, but it's not too short for them "stuffed suits" on Wall Street to get wind of this... They always start accumulating the stuff before the rest of us - and unload before we do, it's all part of the rigged game we play.

I'm willing to take that gamble and beat them to the punch, and I'm hoping the rest of you don't - so I can quietly accumulate a lot more.

As always, the best of luck to all participants - and don't try this at home, as I'm not a trained professional and all you're gonna do is hurt yourself needlessly.

KB
http://singlebarbed.com

The value of Yahoo is not in it's search function, likely it's tied to its audience and advertising revenue stream.

...and face it, Microsoft is the new IBM - they've never been known for true innovation, they've used their market dominance of the OS and Office suites to push competition aside. They're morphing the company from a software entity into an Internet demon, but Google is far ahead of them and not likely to lose ground.

"Vista" was a "lipstick on a pig" operating system that isn't worth the upgrade, and quietly, Microsoft has lost market share on Internet Explorer to the point where only 60% of the traffic I see uses IE. Microsoft has lost focus in their attempt to redefine what they do - and will continue to lose market share in their traditional cash cows, hoping to offset it by the new markets they can unearth.

They're slow and ponderous - heavy handed with customers and dependant on silly licensing schemes designed to eke more revenue from existing customers. Exactly like IBM was in the 1980's when Microsoft ate their lunch...

I wish them well, add Yahoo's lackluster management team to whatever "Overlord" Microsoft appoints and I'm not buying any of their stock.

KB
http://singlebarbed.com

That's what they always do, and I'm not going to follow their shaky wisdom, as their only interest is in "getting you in" so they can line their own pockets.

Yes, most of the stocks we traded in Round 1 are available at considerable savings, but this isn't a normal downturn, this is a singularity - much more insidious and viscious than we would like to see. The credit markets are in turmoil, the litigation associated with the SubPrime mess is starting, and this is going to spill into both commercial properties and many of the massive leveraged deals we cheered so eagerly in sessions past.

The pundits on Strategy Lab are more of the same tired mantra, they don't teach you how to make money in a severe sell off, they instruct you on how to "lose less" than everyone else - none are agressive enough to have credibility in my book.

I'm going to cheer for the "Dishwasher" - to date he's the only fellow that appears to get it, and I expect that over the next six months he'll show the "suits" how it's done.

Round 2 starts with my portfolio having a decidedly negative tilt. I expect to lose money on the "up" days, and make some money on the fall. My feelings are that the markets will be down more than they're up, and over the long haul I may become profitable.

Like Dishwasher I'm going to take a number of positions and slowly weed those that aren't performing as hoped. I'm looking for a mixture of shorts that will enrich me when the broader market declines, some that will be specific to those indices harder hit, and "baby and bathwater" companies - that are raped by a downturn, and are undeserved of the hit they took.

In the immortal words of Detective John McClane, "..welcome to the party, pal."

KB
http://singlebarbed.com