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Holiday Fixings

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While it's not showing much in the way of continued momentum today, the trend looks to be up for the moment. At least until we make it to Tuesday and the market digests what the Fed. does. With a 50 basis pt cut, we'd likely spike hard, at which point I will pull some money from the table across a few of the positions that have worked for the last few weeks and wait to see which way we move as the holiday clamor ratchets up. With only a 25 pt cut, I think the market may pull back in the mid-term with increased volatility. Essentially it's all a waiting game until mid-2008. Pundits and players are going to try to pick bottoms all along the way as usual and it will eventually come down to who blinks first as to whether the bulls or bears control it until we get some hard data on when the larger economy will emerge from the crap that is housing. I'm encouraged that the indexes held where they did over the last two weeks. We certainly tested it and any more speed or volume to the downside and we could've given up a lot more. I'm glad to see Nasdaq back testing its 2700 levels. All in all, more what and see. Hope this price action is a great learning experience for all the baby fund managers that have been incredibly impressed with their gains since 2003. I'll be interested to see who pulls performance out of 2007 and 2008. Cycles come and go and within each we can generally find someone from which to learn a little.

As to my portfolio, today I dumped a few non-movers (MSFT, NOK and SSRX). I added MA, AMZN and MON. The first two are holiday momentum plays. I've been impressed with MA of late, though it is a little top heavy. The ag plays have been rocking. I owned MON a few months back, didn't like it's price action and sold before the most recent moves. Isn't the usually the way of it. In any event, I'm back in now (at least with this portfolio). I'm likely locked in until Tuesday. As I mentioned, there's a chance I pull some $ off the table next week, though momentum is going to determine a good deal. After all, time is growing short and my returns are well below those at the top of the leader board. Cash isn't going to close the gap unless the market implodes and frankly I don't see that happening.