well wasnt thinking i was gonna post again this soon but my position in GTW went up about 50% today on news its being bought out by taiwan's Acer. the price was in the 1.20s and the deal is for 1.90 to close around december. stock up to 1.80. i'm selling of course, not worrying about the last 10 cents, and will put the funds elsewhere sometime later. gtw's position in my s.l.o. port rose from about 5% to 7 %, for a ~ 20k gain. Not much considering the move on the issue, but appreciated nonetheless.

just checked and while gtw is up 50% today, my port overall is only up about 2% for the day, talk about dilution!
well at least that puts me above 10 n.a.v., at least for awhile, should the matadors tire us down this weak.

i wonder if i would of tried my hand on this issue had i not been playing the strat-lab, with my personal dough parked into more defensive issues like pdc. gtw has been one of the hundreds of issues on my watch list for the last coupla years. i certainly have noticed how it tanked recently down to the 1.2 level when just previously this year it had been a somewhat viable trading issue at the 2 dollar psych level. it had been fighting its way upward along with the rest of the market since last fall. i just checked the insider trading on it and apparently some guy named Theodore Waitt has been selling hundreds of thousands of shares on it Every several days for several months now ( or longer) - perhaps just planned sales but nontheless probably not too helfpul for the share prices (couldnt/shouldnt he of just sold his stake to someone awhile ago? - instead of depressing the price? (hurting himself as well?)). Well anyhow a drop from 2 to 1.2, not too far above BV ~ .70, plus bouncing around the same rev and ea #'s for the last few years should of given one more confidence in price support somewhere down there in the low 1dollar level. (vascillating between penny ea losses and gains qtr to qtr).

No doubt insider fear had something to do with the timing of this b.o. If you saw your shares plumment from 2 to 1.2 in a downtrending stock from a high 7ish a few years ago might'nt you have wanted to lock in some 2 +/- action as well? Personally, i probably would have made some changes, and sold the co next year when the stock was in the 2 to 3's for a premium in the 3 to 4s. its a sad story perhaps, and one has to wonder about management. this was a company there with dell in the beginning. when/while dell sold online, gtw tried to go the stand-alone brick and mortar route. Now that dell has/will begin selling directecly as well via WMT, one has to wonder why gtw didnt come out with some major announcement of vending deals as suppliers/major-suppliers at (wmt?...) major discount chains as well (TGT, kmart stores, etc., ....). In essence, it seems as though they've always chosen To Run from the competition. they tried to go the high end high price route, but in a market where prices are always coming down, save for certain aps / gaming/serving etc. Now dell e.g. can sell the higher end models, because they gottem in cheap first (think cars industry). gtw tried (think wished) to just price 'em high and hope people think they're better. on a personal note, i dont know why anyone would've ever bought a gateway anyways. i went into their brick and mortar store in downer's grove illinois a coupla years ago and they wanted like a thousand bucks a piece. it's one of those times when where you sort of hold your laughter/suprise/shock and just act polite/interested until you get out of the store and away from the salespeople. likewise here on campus at the university of iowa they offer gateway special student pricing, and the sticker is like 7, 8 hundred, thou, thousand 2, 15hundred etc, and you're just like wt_ r they thinking? who would ever buy something like this? why would anyone pay more for something that isn't essentially any differnent than something else? everyone knows you can go online and get a decent comp for 500bucks (+/- 200) from dell or ebay etc.. that's the bottom line now, and probably not going too much lower, low enders for 300ish etc.. Gatweway made it to the end, and sold out just as prices couldnt really get too much lower in years to come. guess there looking at margins and the competition? well as i said earlier, you'd think if they'd just compete. Look for Acer to go a good job of integrating gtw, at least a lot better than Lenovo(what! - ('who')) has with IBM. Acer in my experience has some low end model rep and also some gaming rep, though admittedly not that well known by the general populous. Taiwanese historocultural relatioexperience with the west helps them moreso than mainland china's lenovo. ideally, gtw and acer gain synergies and marketing/vendor avs and gain market share. they should probably brand a new model as well ('ought to') for the US. gtw bought emachines a few years ago ( the only brand i'd even considered buying, at BBY, based on price/components), which promptly began to lose significance thereafter, geez. What a failure; even now i could have gotten more. (meaning management - 6mo to 2 years time) Oh well, hats off to them for finally doing something .

p.s. i have many thoughts about asset weighting; wish the algorithms were a little stiffer on this. Have no doubt i could 'win' this lab if that was the main focus. At any time i could overload an issue? Is this true/possible? Have seen several ports with weighting over 25% to any one stock, and the only cost?? - delay in an 'M' rating? - if that's even what one wants/knows about? I follow lots of dollar stocks that could rise like gtw, and even moreso in a 6 month timeframe, and even moreso after the end of a tumultuos correction like this. Are there more rules/database-comp-server-programming rules being/gonna be put into place for this/SLO? p.p.s. here are my two previous comments re GTW :

august 15th Just Blogging... "Incidentally i'd like to get out of GTW whenever i can; i overlooked the fact that these small caps take a too-big commish bite, much moreso than in real life (why?)."

AND

august 13th First Trades... "GTW (beaten down big lately, more to fall? but maybe 1-1.2-1.7ish-2 psychological hold, future b.o. target? christmas coming, alterations to sales models and/or pricing? has got some name recognition cant anyone make it work? management should sell out if given the chance)"

Comments: View Comments |  Monday August 27, 2007

hiyall, folks, dudes, dudettes, folkettes, etcetera, whateva, a;lsdfjla;skfjdlas;dfkjl;asdkfj

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Took a 9 % profit on tribune today (TRB), in keeping with last post. Still a large spread left on this arb, from current 29 to expected 34 b.o.p. Take it if you want, but i'm gonna be content with my modest gain here. It's some sort of 2part deal as well, and i've seen different #'s floated for the debt #'s involved, and as i said last post, an indiviual is involved, not a whole firm/bank/privateeq to spread the cost. i'm glad to get the rise. the sale left me with 200k cash to play with. Again, i feel sort of rushed in my decisions here, so far in this game. It's interesting to see how a large port diversifies risk, (and limits gains), but overall allows for more decision making, which is fun. Made a rush decision to double down on my losing position in PDC, upping it from ~10 to 20% of port (+100k). Putting the other 100k into a 10% position on verasun (vse) for a fall ethanol play.

The reasons for doing are a little weak, at least in so far as the decisions haven't been dwelt on at lenght. Normally in my own account i'm fully invested, and on margin as well. However with my losing position on PDC, but with cash to play with, i can double down and accellerate the gains/recovery if it rises. i've rode it down, and i can stay with a horse pretty long, momma didnt raise no... uh huh, all the ... what's my... oh whatever sorry....

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vse is a stock as many of you know that ipo'd in the last 1-2 years. the thought just occurred to me as i sit here on my computer this friday looking out between the blinds at a rainy day here on campus here in iowa that i've been seeing a lot of corn in the fields lately and i dont know nothing about the yields but it looks tall and as planted as usual and we all know they've collectively upped the acreage this year so maybe supply z'goodenuff to drop ppb from 4 whatever down to 3somthing, which helps the ethcomps. vse, avr, peix, all down, i went with vse for whatever (think they've been more busy acquiring and writin contracts, etc, .i.e. 'doin' business' than they other 3.....(?) ). synm risin hard but its a dollar stock and i'm trying to stay away from those on priniciple? (for the game). i already have mgpi which on further review isnt as much as a direct eth play as i once thought but which nontheless uses corn supply for distillers grains 'n' stuff, . PDC, VSE, MGPI, etc all near 52 week lows so do/think what chyu want. reoccuring lows. 52 week 'reoccurring' lows, not as bad as 'fresh' lows, not as bad as 'breakout' lows but i'd be wantin to buy personally if the latter would to happen.

one last thought,......... make that 2 last thoughts. 1) are there any upside catalysts to this market for next week? the 3rd/4th week of august?? do large mutual funds sell out at ends of month of losers to rebalance? do they still do this? i somewhat understand the concept for the end of year posing and/or tax loss reasons but month to month? think i heard somewhere at times that these sort of best days of the months to buy sell do occur of have some evidence /reasons therof/to. e.g. 15th ss income, end mo selling, beginning mo mut-fund influx new funds, etc... wouldnt be suprised to see 5-7 day market rise take a breather next week so go ahead and get that short fund if'n u want - i thought about it. 2)anyone found out yet how to post comments on other yet? i can vote but not post comments, and there's several good posters out there that i've wanted to comment on or ask a question or two of. someone let me know if you figure this out. the "comment" link doesn't link. hasta luego.

Comments: View Comments |  Friday August 24, 2007

hey folks, i just sold my OATS position for an 18 % gain. it moved back up to 18/share after a favorable ruling on its pending buyout by wholefoods. the deal's still not closed yet, but my position is. booyah. (just a simple booyah). in retrospect it was easy money, what are the odds that 2 small grocery store chains wouldn't/won't be allowed to merge?

Speaking of M&A, not too sure about my TRB (tribune) pick. that was a hasty bet on my part, as were many of my picks. i feel pretty good about the arb game here generally though. a 6month portfolio of just arb picks would probably return 5-10% 'guaranteed' right now, and if i can't beat that 'it's for trying'. 'credit-crunch' worries withstanding/notwithstanding(?) most M&A arb plays should pay-out (and play-out). In hindsight though the hasty TRB play has more risk, what with the 10b debt load, and the individual nature of the buyer (who no doubt wouldnt mind trying to circumvent the deal for a lower price. Well anyhow seems like trb went up about like 5% today to move back up closer to par for me - i'll be looking to sell out of this. As i said, many of these picks were last - minute picks, without much research.

Hurrican season is here, not quite sure yet how that'll effect the drillers. who suffers when rigs go down, not rigs under contract? dunno. 'services' should profit though, but im not too familiar with them, maybe ill look up some offshore-services co's.

Been doing a lot of research this weekend. Been thinkin a little also about differnt types of of stock allocations//portfolios i could be usin'/runnin'. Been trying to develop some kind(s) of new metrics/ratios/stock-screener #'s that i could use to fit my preferred style, but keep hitting a block on just exactly how to compute the numbers i wan't to use. I think i'm probably trying to develop something like the 'PEG' ratio but not sure. Keep gettin my numerators/denominators/inverse-relationships/algebra/calculus mixed up in relation to my intentions. Looking for a concavity (?)- (one hypothesis.) E.G: MEOH: B/V/sh~12 x D/E~.4 = 4.8. 4.8/P(20) =.25 blah blah blah you get the picture, cant figure out exactly what i want to do, but i think i want to take the BV per share, perhaps as 1/x, in this case .6(as high as possible the best - ostensibly), and multiply(?) that by the D/E (in this case .4) (as low as possible - preferably), and then some how factor in a coupla other variables, appropriately weighted, like TTM earnings, etc. Basically i want to screen stocks for what is currently the 'cheapest' based on 'worth' (BV and debt) and factor with that the price and earnings (not necessarily the 'PE') to get a picture of ?? High ROE's are nice but a company might not have a lot of BV/share to begin with, and hence worth less to me. High return on income, or margins, are nice but they only relate to sales, big deal. Maybe i should take a closer look at ROC again and see how that's computed and what it means 'for what its worth' (pun intended). Ideally i can come up with a metric that incorporates both a company's stock's current worth to me, sort of a static measurement, (which would have to include debt, equity, and stock price) and measurement(s) that are potentially more volatile over time, that give some indication of future growth, like past earnings... (wow that sounds lame/typical)
i know a lot of people stake performance on things like 'earnings growth rate" , but these fluctuate so rapidly in such short periods of time (quarterly), i.e. i'm not a big fan of these sort of projections or guesses of future value. as;ldfkjas;ldjf;lasdkjmncxvljadfblahblahblog

Looking at utility and defensive plays (alluded to in last post). I think a low-beta portfolio would do nicely right now (does that make it sort - of a 'buffetish' portfolio?). 'defensive' health/util/energy co's i'm looking at right now with interesting come-downs from their highs are ABT MO CG UST AZN ! BUD CWT SJW JNJ (xdiv 8/24) SNY PFE GSK NVS. interesting arb picks right now would be KYPH, LYO MAFB HCR MYE JNC OO. also DCEL and HCR. Hotels are interesting:WYN, HST HOT BEE (arbs HET and PENN). Also KRO KOP SHI. Some basic utilities for the future to look at PCG AYE D AEE .

Got 150k in cash right now, but 4 pm, cst, gotta get outta the house now, go do some other stuff., will pick something later. low-beta fund would be a decent contraion bet for these high volatility days, for a 'real' portfolio. for all you conservatives at heart And in practice. I wish i could invent my curve for ya, e.g. \_/ , i.e. a concavity histogram for screening stocks with the best current value now, (bottoming out). Speaking of curves, anyone see Rich Hill backin' those cards (no intended :) )off the plate with his breaker? I think were into the postseason, it just remains to be seen how far we can go; time to start thinking about those matchups... Grab the tail and watch the dog wag itself.

portfolio's i should do for experiment?: BV fund? low-beta fund? arb fund? mixed arb/$/bond fund? seasonal fund? 'midterm fund' with my own new trading rules (min & max time to hold, e.g. one week min's, 3-6 mo max's, 50/50 rules and 25 %rules with variable term hold allotments, ), etc. Well got some ideas down too bad no progress gettin ancy gotta leave...

Comments: View Comments |  Monday August 20, 2007

hi, i just woke up, and had blogging/stocks/markets on my mind. so i think i'll write something, since i've woken up fresh. i'm on 6 hours sleep, and was studying stocks/markets till like 3 am, so no wonder i've been thinking about it, perhaps subconsciously while i slept. i'm sort of in a place in my life where i need to get back to my own thoughts anyways, spending so much time in this information world of ours reading/listening to what everyone else has to say.

i should probably include something like this blog in my bio, cause thats more where it belongs. I do have my bio done at the marketocracy site, and it would've been nice if they would've just exported those bio's over here to the investorplaceblogs/movabletype setup for us.

in this blog i'll scrutinize myself a bit, scrutinize the markets a bit, and then scrutinize my impatient picks i just made 2 days ago.

first, regarding moi, i think maybe in doing a contest like this it'll help me balance out individual stock picking with market predictions. what i mean is, anyone can predict the markets, and time it to go long (generally), and jump in to the rising tide that seems to lift all boats. (or short stuff - if your're into that, a practice which b.t.w. i think must have become much more prevalent over the several years, in my opinion - without looking for supporting numbers but which i get a sense for based on experience. i.s.[intra-script] i do realize i need to understand better the practice of short selling and the prevalence thereof.) All my life i've been a great market timer, on both a daily and LT basis. The last 2 years i've been looking specifically at stocks (having acquired a computer and the internet). I'm hoping my last two years diggin into individual stocks has served as some sort of beneficial apprenticeship for the future. I've spent probably an inordinate amout of time the last 2 years looking at stocks, much to no avail in my rather small portfolio. Because of my small account, it doesnt make sense for me to diversify, or to invest aligned with longer-term prognoses. I just spent about an hour searching for an old quote, from a woman, not sure if it was n. zambell, v. lewis, or l.p.weston, last winter/spring about how short-term trading was mentally unhealthy, something i began to consider myself before i'd read it. While focusing on individual companies is a great way to learn more about the world, and gives one a broad base of perspective, much like a lawyer whom handles different cases has to learn about the intricacies of any particular case's particular subject matter, i find that the amount of time i literally spend at the computer has its adverse effects on my eyes and posture, and to some extent mental health as well(?). so i would like to be able to combine my prior years of experience with macroeconomics with my last 2 years experience in micro-corporate fundamentals to find some sort of happy medium, so i can somehow get myself away from the computer so i can devote more time to other things in life. I have doubts about the 6 month lab format, and how it can persuade me to sythesize the longterm and shortterm views of investing. Incidentally, here's a link to a site basically showing that the strat-lab experts over the last several years have basically failed to beat the market: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/StrategyLab/ .

Perhaps sector/cap/etc. performance is really where its at....??....?.. I've never really thought about this sort of thing. I realize my long term picks do wonderful, because buyers catch up to time. And i realize i can get burned short term, for various reasons. Perhaps i'd always assumed 'sector performance' was just too obvious..... e.g. buy electricity just before summer, gas before winter, christmas present stocks before christmas, etc.,...it just seems too obvious. Sector performance (or lets call it 'mid-term' investing) investing makes me feel like a total heel, more so than short-term trading, where i know i'm not really contributing to the good of society (other than providing liquidity) by what amounts to essentially trying to skim money off others. Because 'sector performance' viewpoints at heart basically mean that you ignore the fundametals of the company itself, i.e. it's sort of counterintuitive, it actually eliminates stock-picking, even if you're gonna pick a sector to pick a stock within. So anyways, i guess at some point i , or the eventual leaders of this lab, are gonna have to say, "well this lab is six months ending from mid-year to end-year so lets pick some cyclicals that fit that bill, hurricane stocks, back to school stocks, holiday stocks, tax season stocks, heating stocks, etc., etc." Do i really have to go with the monthly/quarterly ebb and flow of sectors to outwit the tidal effects of short-term trading and/or languishing longterm undervalued stockinvesting? Pardon my resentment? i guess that's what were here for - i.e. midterm investing. Oh well, anyways, like i said, maybe this lab experience can help cajole me into looking more closely at the significance of sythesizing these two (shortterm and longterm) aspects.

Well so what's up with the market? and where's the economy going? were currently at about a 7 percent pullback here in mid-august. i wouldnt be surprised to see a larger pullback to the 13 +/- 3 percent range in the coming weeks, Historically the aug to oct period can be pretty weak. by november things will have settled down a bit. Perhaps we'll break down till labor day when/then everyone then can feel 'back to work'/new season/new beginnings etc. i thnk bernanckes doing a good job. i'd go with a soft landing outlook. the fundamental aspects of the bullmarket/economic expansion begun in 81/82 hasnt changed. world demand takes the load off our back to lead. While worldwide growth can be worrisome/competetive, we americans can hold our own, but we need to think about energy complications. Bush has been a failure at talking down the ppb of oil - from his bully pulpit he alone could have kept oil ppb from ever rising about 50. I suspect he feels, at heart and undisclosed, as i do that maybe we should just use up as much earth-oil as we need at any cost - even upto 200$pb, because of a hope/understanding that somehow in the future we'll get along anyways (fusion, coal, conservation) and so/thus we might as well let the middle-east pull as much oil from the ground and sell it to us at whatever cost, thus to some extent also preserving our own reserves. Anyhow, the energy sector is obviously a main theme now and for the indefinite future. Oh b.t.w. as to what i said about bush and 50 to 80 ppb oil, doesnt anyone else feel that way? that oil ppb going from 20 to 50 is a rather large jump, that 50 to 80 is a lot of speculation, despite worry about the demand/supply future incl. disruptions/war/etc, that oil companies were in business making huge profits off 20$ppb oil and therefore also 30 and 40 ppb? that a big-oil texan from texas maybe just maybe could have said something, just one little thing, in all these years, about the price of oil/speculation/, that his advice/input/concern/opinions/word(s) might of/have counted for anything?? well i suspect well see rates go a bit lower at some point, perhaps the next FOMC meeting. Bernanckes in no rush to cowtow to special interests/pleas for rate cuts, but anyways well see how these short '3 day' infusions work out. If china market pulls back big maybe i can get in there with a pick. lord knows i dont quite have the confidence to start pickin int'l stocks, but it does make sense, and maybe i'll have a chance to break the ice here sometime this fall. Market PE of course is reasonable in the mid to upper teens. Pullback to 12500 +/-200 within next 2 - 8 weeks, small end-of year rally back up to 13200 by end of year. Financials volatility for next few months. end 2008 at 15500 +700-500, with more chaff burnt off, lower rate?, higher comps(latter half 08). Cant beat the housing dead horse forever. Definite dent in consumer discretionary spending. However consumers only account for 1/3 of economy (or is it 2/3?? - i forget), but the marketcap dropoff from pullback dents mid-upper class personal/business reinvestment/spending/etc. I.e. reducing stock holders networth by a trillion or whatever has bigger impact that a hundred billion of loan default on the economy, nonetheless a soft-landing.

BTW can someone ever explain to me why any of these housing and/or mortgage companies are going belly up? so a small percentage of borrowers default - so what?! Cant builders just fire their workers and thus preserve their balance sheet? Cant homeloaners just take the default property back and sell/auction it off for a small (e.g. 10 percent) loss? how does a company like american home mortgage (AHM) or accredited home lenders (LEND) go bankrupt or sink so far with previously such high value and earnings... cant they just close up shop? stop the spigot? stop making new loans? i mean, e.g. if a bank loans me 300k for a mcmansion and i fail to pay then they take the home from me and auction it off for 280 and take maybe a 20k loss - right? - but so what??!! so they lose 20k on me, but there balance sheets are full, they've built equity and cash, they been in business for years accruing value (right?) and then again all in all only a small portion of their borrowers default, even if defaults go up to 10 or even 15 percent right? And what about funds like the bear stearns funds??!! how do/are these considered belly up... so they lose a few points on the credit spread when interest rates rise 10 or even 100 basis points...so what?? how do they suddenly become worthless? its not like billions just dissappeared.... were talking about POINTS here, percents of a percent, not wholesale defaults. somebody pleas explain the microeconomics of these companies/funds balance-sheets/fallouts to me.

On a related note, i must add that i've been reading msn contributor bill fleckensteins articles for last 2 years now, and he is the only analyst to correctly, confidently, and presciently call all of the subprime/housing fallout this year. This imho make him w/o a doubt the analyst of the year. For this reason, i will continue to give his picks (NSTK) extra attention. Incidentlly, i lost money last summer when the market tanked, and i do in fact blame the talking heads, nearly all of whom from all medium jumped on the bandwagon. There was no reason for the market to tank summer '06 may10th fed-speak-rates onward. Corporate earnings were/are double digit then, before, and until this year, and market PE's then, (and now) reasonable, considering. Again with the market mid-term timing thing and sector timing.

Well looks like my impatient picks to start this contest were pretty spread out by sector, without planning, in hindsight. I dont really like ridin in the boat with everyone, and it looks like with my current portfolio crop i might have the same sort of everyone up and everyone down days along with everyone else. Hohum. Can anyone say boring? Predictable? Mediocre? I think risky biotech is a great sector to be in right now, because out-of-the-money biotechs are already always risky, so there's no added risk premium to being in that sector right now compared to the rest of the market, in essence, they become a 'defensive' play. Think ill be happy with my DNDN pick; i should look to build that sector. I'm gettin into this idea of utility for the transition between diffenert types of bullruns, maybe ill add one there, but still, what would we be talking about, maybe a 20% move in 6 months, if were lucky? Looks like i got about a 5-10 percent exposure on gold with EGO and GFI; too bad - i see my personal favorite - GSS- picked over 2 years ago down near 2bucks which i traded profitably from time to time, is back down in the low 3 as of today. Incidentally i'd like to get out of GTW whenever i can; i overlooked the fact that these small caps take a too-big commish bite, much moreso than in real life (why?). i paid 2k in commish for that entry. Well long entry already think ill skip the close-encounter with indiv stock analysis.... later, bon voyage

Comments: View Comments |  Wednesday August 15, 2007

well i finally entered a block trade for about 20-25 positions today, Aug 13th. I really despise slow web sites, and i hate logging in to marketocracy and waiting for pages to load. Plus the market's been volatile lately. Plus i've moved into a new apartment last week and movin's a pain in the derrier (except the heavy liftin' part - which i enjoy for the exercise). So i'm gettin a late start here. Wanted to 'plan it out' perfectly, but as is often the case in my life, i just threw down like the first 20 or so ideas that came to mind, some i just looked at minutes earlier, some i've been tossing around in my head for months etc, all in all really a rush decision, not the sort of thing i'd do with OPP (other people'...purse?/pennies?/pensions?...). Then i had to spend like half an hour trimming the positions down because of some unknown uncompliance (1mil max i'd assumed correctly) and eliminated a few trades completely that i'd wanted (MEOH pe appx 5 pos ea growth 52 week low ++ namesake :)// ISV small cap trading range future pop// and URI simple arbitrage trade, likely to go thru?), will probably revisit these and/or readjust shortly. (i think it'd be cool to get my namesake prefix). Couldnt find a way to enter percentage trades. Had to trim positions down to like the 3,4,5 percent range. Not the sort of way to win a contest, with such small postions. Oh well, i've been lookin forward to gettin started for like a month, hopefully ill tidy up my portfolio within a week or two, by trimmin it down and pickin some winners. At least this way, by just jumpin in haphazardly, at least i can start to satisfy the compliance rules. btw i went to marketcocracy.com, investorplaceblogs.com, strategylabopen.com and no links anywhere to this blogsite, horrible. thought i had it bookmarked a few weeks ago but had to look for it all over again, posted in a forum, which had to download.... well as for the stocks: (darn - while wasting time trying to find my ticket order- which apparently they don't keep < just 'open orders' and 'recent orders' which for some reason doesnt include/show the original order 'as is', i stumbled across the way i could of entered % trades - via the 'buy wizard', oh well ) so i put in orders to buy DNDN (base forming, expectations for drug approvals) , STN (station casino's - just saw it today with a nice arbitrage spread - dont think a credit crunch should affect the gamling co's too much ;/ , PHG (phillips electronics - normal co, durables/cyclicals/foreign diversity, near top but oh well, defensive stock?, slow growth stock, tech/green-energy/utility play) HW (old jubak pick, caps pick, fallen apart, low pe 5ish, diversifying, good ea growth, natgas/coal worries overplayed+winter coming, long term prospectus, TRB (tribune - simple arbitrage play - still has decent intrinsic value should b.o. fall through) SUNW (i dunno why - i just see it slightly under 5 and figure maybe it's got some support there, maybe sell out 5.30ish +/- .15, off highs, vista symbiosis numbers by christmas?) PDC ( well off highs, near lows, natgas overbuild danger, but natgas floorprice last year or so, nearer to BV - 30-40%over, M&E activity elsewhere, pos balance sheet/earnings - full disclosure I have a position on this co and at a loss but have no plans to sell , sort of guessing/hoping that there's some short interest in this stock that has to go away eventually) EGO (eldorado gold - off highs itself, but gold holding up, havent researched company itself, some risk, off highs, defensive play? gold stocks rising last two late-summers? ) MGPI ( ethanol sector - old Zambell pick? near lows, not much else to say, earnings just 'ok', corn prices high, ethanol overhyped but congressional support, sometimes gotta be a good time to get into the sector but when?? - i.e. vse/avr/peix/adm/synm etg.) OATS (simple arbitrage hope/expectancy - noticed today - havent researched at all - just gambling here on a safety bet - ironic..) HERO (offshore drilling m&a gonna hold the sector up) GTW (beaten down big lately, more to fall? but maybe 1-1.2-1.7ish-2 psychological hold, future b.o. target? christmas coming, alterations to sales models and/or pricing? has got some name recognition cant anyone make it work? management should sell out if given the chance) PDS ( another driller, great longterm hold, very nice dividend, beaten down by rig glut but oil ppb stays high for years to come (over 50)) ADM (another ethanol play but with old-money co, more diversified, off its highs a bit, able to handle the corn inflation better, bankroll to work with to adapt, long term slow growth) GFI (just adding for some more gold sector defense/growth - dont see inflation as a problem - think bernankes watching it good, but apparently the world buys gold when markets are volatile so i guess ill play the crowd a bit on this one if i can) VMED (another arbitrage play - down near was before deal was announced, declining earnings, credit crucnh risk fall through, but would branson sell for a lot less? maybe maybe not, but he could wait, full disclosure i use virgin mobile prepaid - cheapest/easiest/and most simple to buy/use/activate/change/etc of the prepaids!) PSO (Pearson, british co, stabilized price trend, slow growth, full disclosure i work for this company ;/ , educationally diversified - publishing, testing etc, just 'owning' for fun here cause i work for them (as a contingent/PT), RNO (another small arbitrage play, around 5.25 supposed to close around 5.50, small cap so should go through but long way to fall if fails)... Would like to get some MEOH, ISV, MU, CHCI , NSTK, defense contractors in the future, bye...

Comments: View Comments |  Monday August 13, 2007