mymeohmoneyblog

hey folks, i just sold my OATS position for an 18 % gain. it moved back up to 18/share after a favorable ruling on its pending buyout by wholefoods. the deal's still not closed yet, but my position is. booyah. (just a simple booyah). in retrospect it was easy money, what are the odds that 2 small grocery store chains wouldn't/won't be allowed to merge?

Speaking of M&A, not too sure about my TRB (tribune) pick. that was a hasty bet on my part, as were many of my picks. i feel pretty good about the arb game here generally though. a 6month portfolio of just arb picks would probably return 5-10% 'guaranteed' right now, and if i can't beat that 'it's for trying'. 'credit-crunch' worries withstanding/notwithstanding(?) most M&A arb plays should pay-out (and play-out). In hindsight though the hasty TRB play has more risk, what with the 10b debt load, and the individual nature of the buyer (who no doubt wouldnt mind trying to circumvent the deal for a lower price. Well anyhow seems like trb went up about like 5% today to move back up closer to par for me - i'll be looking to sell out of this. As i said, many of these picks were last - minute picks, without much research.

Hurrican season is here, not quite sure yet how that'll effect the drillers. who suffers when rigs go down, not rigs under contract? dunno. 'services' should profit though, but im not too familiar with them, maybe ill look up some offshore-services co's.

Been doing a lot of research this weekend. Been thinkin a little also about differnt types of of stock allocations//portfolios i could be usin'/runnin'. Been trying to develop some kind(s) of new metrics/ratios/stock-screener #'s that i could use to fit my preferred style, but keep hitting a block on just exactly how to compute the numbers i wan't to use. I think i'm probably trying to develop something like the 'PEG' ratio but not sure. Keep gettin my numerators/denominators/inverse-relationships/algebra/calculus mixed up in relation to my intentions. Looking for a concavity (?)- (one hypothesis.) E.G: MEOH: B/V/sh~12 x D/E~.4 = 4.8. 4.8/P(20) =.25 blah blah blah you get the picture, cant figure out exactly what i want to do, but i think i want to take the BV per share, perhaps as 1/x, in this case .6(as high as possible the best - ostensibly), and multiply(?) that by the D/E (in this case .4) (as low as possible - preferably), and then some how factor in a coupla other variables, appropriately weighted, like TTM earnings, etc. Basically i want to screen stocks for what is currently the 'cheapest' based on 'worth' (BV and debt) and factor with that the price and earnings (not necessarily the 'PE') to get a picture of ?? High ROE's are nice but a company might not have a lot of BV/share to begin with, and hence worth less to me. High return on income, or margins, are nice but they only relate to sales, big deal. Maybe i should take a closer look at ROC again and see how that's computed and what it means 'for what its worth' (pun intended). Ideally i can come up with a metric that incorporates both a company's stock's current worth to me, sort of a static measurement, (which would have to include debt, equity, and stock price) and measurement(s) that are potentially more volatile over time, that give some indication of future growth, like past earnings... (wow that sounds lame/typical)
i know a lot of people stake performance on things like 'earnings growth rate" , but these fluctuate so rapidly in such short periods of time (quarterly), i.e. i'm not a big fan of these sort of projections or guesses of future value. as;ldfkjas;ldjf;lasdkjmncxvljadfblahblahblog

Looking at utility and defensive plays (alluded to in last post). I think a low-beta portfolio would do nicely right now (does that make it sort - of a 'buffetish' portfolio?). 'defensive' health/util/energy co's i'm looking at right now with interesting come-downs from their highs are ABT MO CG UST AZN ! BUD CWT SJW JNJ (xdiv 8/24) SNY PFE GSK NVS. interesting arb picks right now would be KYPH, LYO MAFB HCR MYE JNC OO. also DCEL and HCR. Hotels are interesting:WYN, HST HOT BEE (arbs HET and PENN). Also KRO KOP SHI. Some basic utilities for the future to look at PCG AYE D AEE .

Got 150k in cash right now, but 4 pm, cst, gotta get outta the house now, go do some other stuff., will pick something later. low-beta fund would be a decent contraion bet for these high volatility days, for a 'real' portfolio. for all you conservatives at heart And in practice. I wish i could invent my curve for ya, e.g. \_/ , i.e. a concavity histogram for screening stocks with the best current value now, (bottoming out). Speaking of curves, anyone see Rich Hill backin' those cards (no intended :) )off the plate with his breaker? I think were into the postseason, it just remains to be seen how far we can go; time to start thinking about those matchups... Grab the tail and watch the dog wag itself.

portfolio's i should do for experiment?: BV fund? low-beta fund? arb fund? mixed arb/$/bond fund? seasonal fund? 'midterm fund' with my own new trading rules (min & max time to hold, e.g. one week min's, 3-6 mo max's, 50/50 rules and 25 %rules with variable term hold allotments, ), etc. Well got some ideas down too bad no progress gettin ancy gotta leave...

Comments: View Comments |  Monday August 20, 2007