mymeohmoneyblog

market went up this week a coulple points; my port barely moved.

my port is barely up overall by roughly a half-percentage point.

marketocracy funds update this weekend indicates i am 83.3% compliant since inception and for the 'most recent quarter'.

after doing some calculations and going over my fund's info at marketocracy it seems the indicated percent comes from the fraction 75/90, which would mean they are using the actual inception date of July29th all the way till today, Oct. 27. I.E. 2 days in july + 31 for august + 30 for september + 27 to-date for october = 90. I skipped the first 15 days of the open, the last two days of july (unwittingly) and the first 13 days of august during the downturn (the trades registered on the 13th but i guess they're not counting that). i lost about 5% at the tail-end of the downturn but had jumped in a bit prematurely over overall compliance concerns. so there you have the figures, 75/90, for 83.3%. It took too much research to figure this out. Rules require one to be at least 50% compliant for the 'most recent quarter'. It still isn't obvious to what this refers. marketocracy rankings currently indicate august 31st as the end of the 'most recent quarter'. elsewhere in marketocracy-prose examples indicate normal calendar quarters as 'quarters'. If 'most recent quarter' stats were computed incorporating july for 'Q3' i'd be roughly 52% compliant (july/aug/sep =92days - (31+13 days) = 48/92= 52%); if 'most recent quarter' stats were computed using august 31st as the end date of the most recent quarter then i'd obvioulsy be even less compliant. I can't tell if they're going to compute 'most recent quarter' compliance based on a rolling-daily 90 day time-period, since apparently they're just using the july29th inception date as an arbitrary substitution date for 'most recent quarter' - so far. Anyhow, i.e. hence, and/or so, we are currently 90 days into this competition, from 'july29th' till today oct.27. i have been compliant for 75 days, therefore accruing 29 noncompliant days over the 46day/>50% threshold. As of next monday there will be approximately 64 days left (until NYE (?)). Ummmmm, i suppose maybe i should have used up some more of my noncompliant days by now, just occured to me that maybe we lose them as the quarters roll forward. Perhaps i'll try staying closer to the line in the next open. Too difficult to calculate remaing possible ncd's while factoring in both saved days and the future diminishing time of the contest, while also trying to gauge how the 'mrq' will be programmed.

Anyhows, none of this matters if i can't get up in the moring. Have been averaging an average bedtime of 4-5am, getting up noonish and running off late to class, and only checking markets in the late afternoon, sometimes getting there before close but always reluctant to make rush decisions at close. What time of day do you all prefer to make your trades? My best ideas continually pass me by by not being an early bird. Haven't traded for weeks due to my personal habits. Missing all sorts of opportunities. Could of overloaded and made up 10/15/20% on the leaders in just a day or two everynow and then. Liked the financials/mortgage originators after the mer report, lost 10/20/30% opportunities on the mer's, cfc's, imb's, ko's of this world the last few days and weeks. Repeated opportunities to take the lead, going by the wayside due to my need to sleep when i feel like it. Recognize the need for discipline in both life and investing, however habits can be hard to break. It's occurred to me to bottom fish these financials repeatedly for the last month or so, for 2 reasons, despite their poor prognoses out different time-periods... One, despite some of their rather large writedowns, they stll report positve earnings #s. It's just amazing how many billions in profits the largest of the large are rolling in, despite the writedowns, and certainly then their stocks can look oversold. Second, it makes perfect sense to me that they'd want to take the writedowns now, for tax reasons, as we're nearing the end of the year. If they play it right they might even save some of their available write-downs for next year too (first quarter, and/or second quarter?). Moreover, at some point they'll have to 'write-up' the losses that they 'write-down' for assets they carry. My guess is they'll try to wait till 2009 to do this, but i don't know, haven't thought about it, it's just a guess, based on their wanting to 'limit profits' for both 2007 and for 2008. I'm usuallly way ahead of the game in my analysis of stuff, but way behind when it comes to sleep :( :) I come home and watch the mer's and cfc's pop 20/30% from their daily/and/or intraday lows and think how i'd planned on gettin that in the morning...
Write-downs of credit-crunch assests that they can't mark to market, obviously they'd just prefer to hold on to these, take the 'write-down's' that jive with the public perception now, allowing tax breaks for the fiscal year(s) (how could the IRS protest?) and let their accountants and tax experts figure everything out along the way.
Neighbor just came home next door about 10 minutes ago, distracted (me), lost my 'momemtum', guess i'll leave it at that, for now...
p.s. the hawks beat mich.state in 2x overtime this afternoon, they need to win-out to make a bowl-game. drank 3 cups of everclear punch at a costume-party last night ( i was trying to be a clown, but people kept asking if i was 'rainbrow-bright' (who?!) because of my stockings....
happy halloween y'all. don't forget to x-ray your kid's candy :~\

Comments: View Comments |  Saturday October 27, 2007