I Eat Bear

The SADDEST, day of all,

And the one,, the rest of the world had awaited.

Has come to pass.

WE have come to FIGHT, with ourselves,,

over our prosperity.

And, folks, THAT has become,, our downfall.

That,,, and GREED,, and we are known for both.

How do you pick off AMERICA?

COUNT on ,,

it's STUPIDITY

Then ,, hope like hell ,, we do not become "Americans"

Because, we will.

Internal, or EXTERNAL,,
I BELIEVE,, in the

"American people"

When, and IF,, they EVER get Their head out of their ASS.

Comments: View Comments |  Thursday November 11, 2010

The first rule in beating the market, is do not do what the market does. Maybe, do LIKE the market does, but not WHAT it does.

Why? Because you can not buy in cheap enough. Yes, you might make gains on it, and well you should. But, fact is, BEFORE you bought, future gains were priced in. And, more than 85% of the time, there will be a market retrenchment. So, for you short term traders, you are at a disadvantage. While you may be at a short term gain, IF, you time the market correctly, you will still lose to the long term investor, who will recognise the fact the market over-priced a single stock based on a short term outlook

Take gold for instance. There is a case that says, despite the huge run-up in gold prices, that gold is still a good buy. And, I believe it is. Too many smart minds are on that band-wagon.
Inflation is a sure bet, the US dollar, is all but dead and buried, and gold may be the next REAL currency. It certainly qualifies on the basis of scarcity. But, for one thing.

Everybody wants it, and only a few can have it. And, while they are all concerned over how to get gold, what should YOU do. Let them fight it out, and pick the next few items, they will need, while the prices are much cheaper on them.

The next best thing to money, or gold these days is silver. Also a measure of monetary wealth, and selling for a discount (a big one). But, less noticed, it can rise, at a rate that far surpasses gold, because GOLD is the measure. Well, while gold slowly rises, silver has been on a tear.

And, not just silver. Do you know that several stocks, some of which are silver related and some not, are SERIOUSLY out-performing gold right now? For instance, John Deere (DE) is up close to 70% this year, while GOLD is pushing maybe 25%, depending on how you invested it.

And, here is the shocker of the century. Believe it or not, for the first time in history, to my knowledge, there is a possibility, that CORN, will surpass the gains of gold and silver!

So, what does a smart investor do?

STAY UNDER THE RADAR. Yes, pick a few gold stocks, but limit that, and hold on. Pick a few close relatives, and hold them LONGER. If corn is the new gold, then maybe DE is a buy, rather than corn itself.

Smaller names, that beat the market as a whole, is the sole trick to market beating results. But, there is one caveat to that. You also need the big, and secure. How many companies will outperform IBM this year? A whole bunch. But, IBM, is dollars in the bank. Now, and later. And, if the market takes a dump, in time, you get those dollars back.

So, in the briefest of statements, beat the market, by buying, close to, but not exactly as they do. You gain, on their gain (and are LIKELY to beat them). Following a herd, can only get you beat, in the end.

Play market timing, but not to the extent of a short-term trader.

Balance your portfolio. Put a HEALTHY dose of RISK in it, but protect yourself there too. Not following the herd can be expensive in the short-run too. Put some SAFETY, in your portfolio too. Slow and sure, will win some races, but not most of them.

But, you can take this to the bank too. Being like every one else will COST you money. Especially, in the short term..

I don't know why, and I can't explain it. But, SIMILARITIES, to a good trend, will generally out-perform the good trend.

Right now, agriculure, is a big trend. Potash escaped the BHP take-over bid,, maybe. Does that make the element potash to be less in demand. Does that make stocks that produce that, good investments right now?

You could follow, big money, and say it will happen. Dollars to donuts, BHP, will invest in it's own mine (or potential mine), and give Canada, the BIG bird.

I like BHP, because it has the money and CLOUT, to get things done. Do NOT, go "piss into the wind".

Recognise potentials, invest in them. And, then, invest in what can beat them. Big, is a liability, in a stock market race of share price gains

Then again, slow, and steady will win some races.

I can probably beat the returns on BHP, for a long time to come, and never lose a dime. But, in the end, I have to know this too. No matter how good MY returns are, I could NEVER buy Canada. And, guess what. At the rate that BHP is creating WEALTH, it just MIGHT be able to do that.

It is a double edged sword. Sometimes you beat the market, by going against it. Sometimes you have to see, the world is "for sale' to the highest bidder.

Sometimes you have to look at the balance sheet. Who has the money? Or could have?

And, the answer to that is GE. And, what does GE have over BHP, besides a lower stock price? Aside from dividends, which fluctate, GE does spin off stocks, at a fairly good rate.
Enough to make the stock a BUY, not to mention, a cheap stock price.

Yes, GE, please, get out of financials, and DO, what you DO so very well. Provide the ESSENTIALS, of a better life for all.

If you want GAINS, you have to stay "under the radar" and you can beat most any of them. But never kid yourself, Any BULLY on the block, can take you out, in a moments notice.

Don't fight money. Make money, on money. Play the short term trends, but as a long term investor. And, while you can beat them, for how long?

Smart money, is a good hedge. Take both sides, and reap "like hell" while you can.

Comments: View Comments |  Wednesday November 3, 2010

When making investment decisions, do NOT over-think them. Sometimes, you will be right, and sometimes you will be wrong. That applies to BOTH short, and long-term decisions. You may get into a stock, and in the short-term, it may tank like a rock, and two years later, it has made 75% gains. You may find one that makes 200% the first year, and never sees daylight again.

Yes, that too is part of the investing game. Don't fall in love with your stock. Of all of the stock advise I have ever recieved, that may be the only "truism" I ever heard. .

Countless times, you will hear reasons to buy, and reasons to sell. More often than not, I will tell you, someone is telling you that so "THEY CAN PROFIT". And the back side of that is USUALLY, they will do it "at your expense".

Ok, that is the name of the game, and it is an "UGLY: game, for REAL money. Close to gambling. You bet!,, Oops, is stock picking gambling? Well, maybe, and if you don't like gambling, well, you have decisions to make. Can you retire, on savings from your income?
If you can, or think you can, my blessings, and you are excused. Bless you, and GOOD LUCK.

The rest of us are not so blessed. So, I am going to bring up some "ideas" for how to make money, and in fact, I am going to do it in a different form than most. I am going to "concentrate", on making money,,,, from just breaking even.

Now, if you are a short-term investor, breaking even, is a waste of time,, mostly,,, but the concepts still apply.

So, my first topic is "stock splits". Technically, you can not make money on a stock split. You have more or less shares, but the same percentage of the "pie" you had before the split. But, here is what a stock split does offer you. If the stock is doing very well, it may grow, at a rate "equal to the pie", but, in absolute growth or loss. If it does well, likely you will like the results. BUT, most of you, are not REALLY, interested in the "pie size". Only a few of you could EVER acquire, enough shares of a company, to make the most insignificant portions of it. So, what does a "stock split" really offer you. The chance to sell off some, and re-allocate, your portfolio,, and to "feel like",, you made a profitable decision. Maybe you did, who knows? You made money, and limited losses?

How many of you have I lost so far? Some us us just made money, on a break-even deal? Not so much in real dollars, but we may have more shares, of a good company, and re-allocated, to diversify our holdings, on the same amount of dollars,,, and maintained, enough for future growth. The beauty of a stock split is not more shares, but the diversification possibilities it offers. Do NOT under-estimate that. It will make dollars, and cents (sense).

Next. look for companies, that tend to 'spin off" previous (or future), business lines. If the company is large, your stock price may not drop significantly, and you maybe handed "free shares" of another company. Does anyone here have a problem with FREE? If so, I promise you, this column will waste your time. For the rest of you, the likely best solution, is the "immediate sell" of it. It was dumped for a reason, but there are yet two reasons not to sell.

First reason not to sell a spin-off, is if the new management is better than the old. It happens.
Do your research, and sometimes the answer is wait and find out. More often than not, the parent company was right. It is just not going to be profitable enough to keep on the radar. Second reason, is how good of an acquistion target, is the spin-off. Which brings me to my next topic.

An acquisition target, is not like the others I have mentioned so far, except in ONE way. Your investment dollars have not changed. Now, in almost evry case, you are about to make a SERIOUS PROFIT, on the same investment dollars. Companies get bought, for a "premium".
Yep, you make money.

So, regardless, of how good or bad you are at picking a stock, you can make money, even on some "break even" scenarios.

So, how about this, Review the list of stocks I had you create (previous e-mail?), and see how many, have a history of stock splits (harder info to find), look to be acquired, or look to spin-off other businesses. Folks, I kid you not, some of the "break even" stock deals, can make you a fortune.

If you want to go to the rest of it, well it is dividends, against growth. Long, versus short term, sectors, or individual stocks, and you can make money all over the place there.

But, my FIRST lesson, is you can make ENOUGH MONEY, on the break-even,, to get filthy rich,, if you make "good decisions".

Yes, you WILL make some bad decisions. COUNT on it. Maybe, it is the "BREAK-EVEN" decisons, that will determine the outcome, of your portfolio.

Ok, I spent MY two hours,, plus, that I recommended on YOUR research, so now maybe I should do mine? Hopefully, I educated a few of you.

A research list, will do you no good, if you never apply it. Take the LEAP, and look FORWARD, to the day,,, hey, I broke even,,,, and not that I made money, but that I will.

And, that will be VERY hard to do for short-term investors, but the concept is the same. Do NOT, try to time the market. If it works, count your blessings, and tell yourself, "you made good choices".

Market timing? Well, we had this question earlier? Should it be GAMBLING?

Every good gambler will tell you. The best "GAMBLE",,, is no gamble at all.

By that, I mean, "taking profits" is not a SIN. Especially, if all you had to do was be there. Ok, there are "moral decisions", and you make those, not me.

Me, I have nothing against a profit. I did not rob anyone (to my knowledge), committed no crime, and took ADVANTAGE, of a SITUATION, where MONEY was to be made. And, I can sleep at night.

Welcome to investing folks.

Comments: View Comments |  Thursday October 21, 2010

With so much information about virtually everything today, even if you limited your topics to say "stock research", it might take days to digest the "NEW" information from a single day. There is simply too much of it, not to limit it some.

So, here is a plan to get you started. It really does not matter if you are already invested, or just plan to in the near future.

It begins with find 200 stocks to watch. Very few people can name 200 stocks, let alone watch them, but that is the first task. Yes, even if you just write down stock symbols you have no idea about, find an hour or two a day, and make a running list until you reach that number. It will save you time if you write down the current stock price, if you know it.

Secondly, if have not got the current stock price, look it up. Yes, you will be using a computer, so you might as well get used to that right now. You will be expected to spend no less than 10 hours a week, and 2 hours a day is about right. When you have all stock prices you are ready to move on.

This is an important step. Find out company information on every stock on your list. You want to know the business they are in, what they make/sell, and who the competitors are. We will be digging into this more later, but for now, it is just to get you a "feel" for which industries you might prefer to deal with, and which you may not. If say, you find one that produces tobacco products, and you are averse to tobacco, you may "consider' crossing this off of your list. I just have one question for you before you cross it off. If it is making money, are you more averse to money than to tobacco? If your answer is yes, cross it off of your list, otherwise, leave it. This is about making money! But, you do not have to sell your soul to do it. Somewhere in this exercise though, you may cross out about 25 companies, and that is ok.

Ok, you have a "feel" for what a few of those stock symbols now represent.Hopefully, you might have written down a word or two by that stock symbol, to say what the business is about. Folks, that is the beginning of "sectors", or it will be, once we group them, which we are not quite ready to do yet.

Next, go back through each stock, and write down the current P/E, and the forward P/E for each stock. By now, you might be getting the idea. Folks, a spreadsheet is a good idea. Microsoft Excel make marvelous spreadsheets.

If you think I have given you much less than 2 solid weeks of homework by now, most of you are mistaken. Some of the "more prudent" will skip the steps, and miss half the point. You can do all of this on a single stock, at one time, but you will miss the idea, of learning each stock symbol, and making associations to it.

Next though, I want you to use some "compare screens" . Find companies, in the same line of business. Basically, just a "peripheral view" of how your stock compares, "in your opinion" to it's competition. You may see things like debt ratios, return on equity, asset turnover, and some terms you may not yet be ready for, but take a "preliminary stab", at how you think this stock might fare against some in it's own industry. My goal here is not to make you a financial "wizard", but again, to help you find "your comfort level" for this stock. One's you don't like at all, feel free to cross them out. In some cases, you may add the one you found you like better.

Next, go to some chart info for each and every stock on your list that is not crossed out. Go back to your spreadsheet, and write 'top', 'middle' or "bottom' for each.

One last technical item to be performed, and you are well on your way to getting started. Go back through that stock list, and add two items to your spreadseet. One is the current dividend,
and the other is the projected growth rate.

Now, scan your list, and find the 25 that interest you the most, From an investment perspective.
Granted, I have not explained P/E, and some other things, but low P/E is USUALLY (but not always good), high debt is seldom good, and high returns is almost always good. Keep in mind though, you will be following these stocks, so if they they are in a business you find distasteful, drop them now.

Ok, we have been through some of the most "BASIC" items of selection, and finding your comfort level. This process should be repeated, regularly, except now, you know, there are some stocks, you may not ever want to track. "EVER"? Again, are we here to make money, or to say how we feel?

One last activity, and we will close this. Group the items on your list, by the businesses they are in, in "really broad" categories, like retail, oil, real estate, financial, transportation, technology, minerals, and maybe a few more. If you have more than 10 groups you have too many groups. If you have less than 4 groups, you have either over-grouped, or made too many selections for a single group.

Now, I don't want you to throw away the complete list you made, because we may be coming back to that.

But, for now, you did good home-work. Good job, well done.

Comments: View Comments |  Thursday October 21, 2010

I can't say I have not had my share of mistakes. I have. In fact, I had a recent one. My call on the worst CEO ever, and I used a "does the name ANDERSON ring a bell"?

Case in point, the name is MIKE ARMSTRONG, but I had to sleep on it, and research further. Yes, he is the CEO, that "JUST PLAIN GAVE UP", on one of the most historic, and LARGEST companies in history. And, YES, I did discount the size of AT&T at that time to post MA-BELL break-up.

WHAT a LOSER, and yes, it is him, I want to be first in line, to piss on his grave. But, there must be, several hundred thousand, larger investors than me, who deserve to be in line BEFORE me. As I last understood it though, he did get another CEO position, and now he could not get a job as a teller a Wendy's. I do not KNOW the whole truth there, and I know he retired with YOURS, MINE, and a BUNDLE of other people's cash.

Water under the bridge folks. It is GONE. A bad decision was made. Maybe not even that. There was just no time to bail, after he got office. Ride the storm? 15 years later, if you count dividends of less than 3 %, well, by my accounting, you have still lost 3%. Not on stock prices, but on cost of living increases. AT&T has been a virtually DEAD stock, for the last 15 years, despite it's recent rises, of shall we say almost 30%.

Well, that is what a BAD CEO, can do to your investment. And, as bad as that story is, I REPEATED it, on Chesapeake (CHK). Different circumstances of coarse. MIKE ARMSTRONG
did see the coming of 2G, 3G, and maybe 4G phone networks, And, they scared the PANTS off of him, in terms of what a long-lines based company could do, even if it had a foot in the door on wireless, and ahead of competition there. The CEO of Chesapeake, is just guilty of being INSANELY greedy, for his OWN personal gain. While I can appreciate, and understand that personal quality, as an investor,, well, I just waited to long to see it.

Make money, and I will help you do it, but DO NOT do it at the expense, of OTHERS.

Ok, one man's gain, is another man;s loss. To some end, that is true, no denying. But, like everything ELSE, it requires JUDGEMENT.

So, let me ask you THIS question? Would you not just like to make money on companies doing good things right?

Believe it or not, you can. Ok, there again, maybe I over-step my bounds. I am not a fan of Phillip-Morris, but as a stock watcher, I have to admire the company. And, yes, I smoke. Wish I did not, but, life is what it is. I don't recommend smoking, and I don't recommend Phillip-Morris, but it is a decent stock.

Once upon a time, in a past life, I could (and did) drink beer by the truck-load. I don't any more, but, in the day, I should have invested in Budweiser, Now it is In-BEV, and it too, is a good stock, but does not get my support.

So, what am I telling you, as an investor? That I am a smoker, and a past alcoholic. Possibly, but that is not the REAL point here.

Let's change that perspective, just SLIGHTLY. Let's look at things from this view, for just a second.

I have CHOSEN, industries to invest in, and industries to avoid. Let's carry it ONE step further, and I have chosen, SECTORS, to invest in, and sectors to avoid. Oh, yes, I have missed some real winners on this strategy, and I have avoided more losers that I EVER would have had as winners.

In fact, if the market was PERFECTLY timed, I could have made a TON of money, on AT&T, Phillip-Morris, and IN-BEV (or Budweiser).

But, if you play market timing, more often than not, you will lose. I am making a play right now, that says the market is WAY, WAY, past due, for a correction. Maybe, I am right, maybe I am wrong. I will not short, to prove I am right.

Cheaters, may prosper. There is NO ethics, in it.

You can do mostly the same things, by picking good companies, in good sectors,,, and yes, just holding on.

AND, you can sleep at night.

Did I say the market would not go down? Did I say, you would not lose some money,,, short term. Very likely, you will.

But, if you don't bet the farm, on one stock, and you can wait, a little while (not forever, but say 3 years), you will win in the end, more often than not.

Yes, you HAVE to pick good stocks, or you will get RAPED,, finacially.

If you are a LAZY investor, look for a fund NOW, as I PROMISE, I have NOTHING for you.

If you are a "Gambler from hell", you will get some advise here, to help you, on your "once in a lifetime" JUMP, but most of you will miss it.

The BALANCE of my column, will be based to help the "majority', of mostly, sane investors.

Yes, that should help, the already weathy, and those that want to be.

And on that note, I will ask BOTH of my remaining readers.

At what point, is ENOUGH,, too much? I can help you get there, but then what?

It will NOT be 'JOY-RIDE" to get here. But, you should not have to "sell your soul" to do it either.

Understand the basics, before we start. I am NOT you, and you are not me. My concepts WORK, but you may have to make adjustments, to fit your STYLE.

What I won't do, may be the way to your FORTUNE.

I am not your judge, or your jury. I am "at best", one of many advisors.

And, as your advisor, the first thing I want you to know,,,,,,

Is I make mistakes.

Right now, I am a "seller". I could be wrong, but it is a question of when rather than if.

'

Comments: View Comments |  Monday October 18, 2010