I Eat Bear

Dollars to donuts

Yes, I will bet.

I have known, FINE SINGLE parents, that have ask NOTHING,, from ANYBODY,, but to be able to raise the kids they bore.

And , I know sleazy worethless,,, so and so's
that have ask that we support them

And we do.

It is the LAW

It does not matter,, man or woman. A woman wants a child,, BIOLOGICALLY, whether or NOT, she is right for the job as a PARENT.

SOMETIMES, it is the MAN,, that steps up to the PLATE.

And this SORRY,, GOVERNMENT,, that wants to so stauchly support a WOMAN, needs to FINAlLLY,, GET IT'S head OUT OF IT'S ASS.

YOU HAVE TAXED THE WRONG ONES

MORONS

AND,, this is what keeps this country STRONG?

No, it is the SOLDIERS,, underneath,,,

with little say in what goes on.

Try,, just try

to live without them.

In the end,, they will vote.

Comments: View Comments |  Thursday January 28, 2010

There is absoltely, NO CHANCE, this MORON president will EVER get it right.

What made this country STRONG?

It's TAX, on the single working stiff.

It does, and will continue to.

It RAPES, the poor, the unwilling, to ADMIT, the FAILURES of the system,, because,, , they are just one.

I am here to tell you,,,,,,

the just one,,

is about to OVERRULE you

You are STUPID, and you deserve it
I Have paid your SALARY, for too long.

And, I will do what I can to REMOVE you and your money grubbing cohorts,, from office

Want to do SOMETHING,, to help the people?

Shut the FU** up,,and REMOVE government.

Then, the world, people, and free markets,,, have a chance.

Comments: View Comments |  Wednesday January 27, 2010

I don't believe my eyes. The Obama administration got SOMETHING RIGHT. Ok, well, anyone can blunder into one, and that leaves their total AT one.

But, without further ado, that ONE was the assault on banks. And, I applaude it. Specifically, two things about it. One, and most importantly, it keeps banks from trying to control the stock market. It would allow them to invest for clients only! BRAVO! Finally, maybe the market can get back to what it was intended to do. The market was designed to be an investment vehicle for INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS, and to get rid of the likes of Goldman Sach's computer programs to control market prices can only be a good thing. Will it do it? No, unfortunately, this bill will not go far enough for that, but it IS a good start. Why won't it stop Goldman Sachs? They simply will cease to have any relationship with anything to relate them to a bank. The plans of the administration did catch the culprits, but it left the door open for them to escape. And, escape, they will. You heard it here first.

Secondly, it is close to being the first thing done to deal with the "too big to fail", which was the Obama administration's ALIBI for the bailouts (to the undeserving) provided last year to the likes of AIG, BAC, CIT, GM, and others. Ok, you have to start somewhere. Admittedly, this is the tiniest of steps, but it is a step.

But, this fool just does NOT learn. He still has YET to understand. The government does not belong in the PRIVATE SECTOR. His idea of salary caps is just short of insanity, even if it does need doing. He is not the one to do it. The SHAREHOLDERS are the ones to do it.

Being an "out of the closet socialist", it is too much to hope for that Obama will do what needs doing, which is to reduce the impact of GOVERNMENT on the people, but as long as he persists in doing what he has no business doing, he did FINALLY get one thing right.

Limit BANKS to banking, and limit how big they get, even then.

Does this make up for the PLETHORA of errors he made last year? Not even remotely. Then again, he did start his administration in difficult times, which may have required drastic measures. He does have one thing going for him. This is NOT an election year!

Well, one in a row does not a trend make. But, personally, I did LIKE this one, even if the market had a negative reaction to it. With roughly 21% of the stock market in banking/investment related activities, did you expect the market to applaude today? I did not expect that, but if anything GOOD comes from this, it may well have been the best money I have spent in MANY years! It was the first time I can recall taking a loss, and liking it. And, I hope that does not become a trend either, but the cause was JUST!

Comments: View Comments |  Thursday January 21, 2010

If another country made an attempt to destroy the American economy it might be understandable. We were once the wealthiest country in the world. That wealth destruction is not coming from abroad though, but from our own ignorance and greed.

Well, to think that corporate America has any conscience or sense at all would be a misnomer. The wealth destruction of America has been going on for many years. At least the last 25 years or so, by my conservative calculations. And, it would be hard to deny that most of it has greed (not just profit) as it's motive. But what I find most disconcerting is that nobody sees this coming? But, I am getting the cart before the horse, so let me digress back some.

The first crime of the past 3 decades has been out-sourcing. It has several very real problems that everyone wanted to turn a blind eye to. The first of these is the transfer of wealth from the US to other countries. Yes, other countries want paid for the services they render, even if they do render them at a fraction of the costs of doing the same business in the US. So, money formerly kept in the US is now flowing out the door to other countries. This in turn will create a short term un-employment issue until the US worker are re-staffed back into other jobs and careers. So, there is an immediate negative impact to tax income to the government. But, you counter with the idea that the profits from these out-sourcings remain in America? Maybe, but for how long? Let's see. By the way, the two biggest groups out-sourced initially were data processing and call center (customer support). Hummm, one of those is some of our technological edge in business?

Well, right in the same neighborhood with out-sourcing is moving production centers of manufacturing overseas. Again, in the name of cheaper labor. Or is it called profit (or greed). Same concept going on though. Dollars once spent on US production are now spent on foreign production of the same goods once produced here. But, we can justify all of this in the name of "global expansion"?

The second crime of the past mostly two decades is absolute corrupt greed. Any way to take someone else's money and put it in your pocket. Cases in point here include Enron, Ponzi, and Maddoff. Yes, American education institutions are producing smarter criminals, might be one conclusion you could infer from that. What is new about these crimes is they are no longer about millions of dollars, but about BILLIONS of dollars.
And in some of this same group, I am going to include banking and the mortgage industry. Selling mortgages to those who clearly have no solvency, and rebundling and packaging these for resale at unreasonable prices. While this may have bordered on more legal than Enron, Ponzi, or Maddoff, it clearly has it's roots in greed, and common sense is out the window. Many of these banks self-destructed, again leaving a path much akin to the raping and pillaging of unsuspecting investors portfolios'. And, while we are on the subject of unabashed greed, let's by all means include short-selling. This group typically expects to profit, having little to nothing invested, while causing wealth destruction to those that do. Yes, short sellers fit in with the band of crooks. Here they shall reside in my book.

The third major crime of this century is government interference in the private sector. Add to that creating more agencies within the government to add to costs, and further hinder any progress in getting anything productive done. Not to mention printing money like it is going out of style. Bailouts of AIG, GM, Meryll Lynch, CitiGroup, Bank of America and others is mostly just horse puckey. Oh, it was to save the global financial system from collapse? Horse-puckey! The American system could and would go on without any one of or even without all of them (possibly even better). What it did do though was create a huge deficit in the government budget which will have to be repaid in tax dollars at some point. Yes, it will hit each American worker, but moreover it will hit each American business too. So, many of the wiser American companies are looking for the exit to avoid the inevitable tax burden they will unnecessarily face if they stay here. Yes, this creates an even bigger tax drain on those left behind, as it reduces tax revenues received, drops GDP, and transfers more wealth to other countries. (And, my personal opinion here, who better to orchestrate all of this? Why, Obama of coarse. He is head of the plan to turn the US into a socialism.). And if they don't want to leave because of tax issues, they will want to leave when executive pay and other daily business issues become under the scrutiny of the government. The message is loud and clear. If you are an American business, GET OUT of our country.

The fourth crime of the century is the destruction of the American individual investor by allowing the use of computerized trades on the stock market. Yes, this one is reserved for Goldman Sach's, JP Morgan's, Morgan Stanley's and a few of the others. This is on a par with the other greeds mentioned earlier, but just as immoral. You see, the stock market was designer to be for the INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR. Not corporations, not computers, but INDIVIDUALS.

Now, as I look back over some of this list, and if someone had told me to come up with a plan to destroy American wealth, I am not sure I could have come up with one a whole lot better than these.

1. Move technology overseas
2. Move production out of the country
3. Increase unemployment
4. Increase government interference
5. Add some crooks (yes, a few that are not already working in the government)
6. Destroy the individual investor

We don't seem to need other countries to undermine our economy. We seem to be doing just fine by ourself, thank you.

Comments: View Comments |  Monday November 30, 2009

I have been watching individual stocks, and the market as a whole. My findings concern me.

Mostly,my concerns stem from P/E values. They are, by most any standard, pretty high right now. Considering we are recovering from a questionable return from a serious market downturn, that is a BIG issue right now. I can find very , very few stocks, that are CHEAP. In fact, I could give cause for another round of blows, for those who did not learn in the last downturn.

Ok, a P/E is a hard thing to give a number to. It depends on the company, and the sector. A P/Eof 15 is HIGH, and should be considered so, for MOST stocks. Yet, the tech sector thinks a P/E of 30 is a low-grade stock. Some of those have P/E values well over 50. In my book, that is too over-priced.

P/E, price to earnings. Put another way, it is how long it will take your stock to pay back your initial investment,, in years. Now, when I look at tech stocks, I start to believe that high PE ratio. Face it, they are risky, and they are boom and bust industries. You have to have some, or you miss the boom, and you can't have much or you WILL bust.

So, let's just stick with the BASICS. Let's avoid some sectors, for now, with out of line P/E ratios. If we can not find stocks, that follow the RULES of investing, then let's ignore them,, for now.

Rules of P/E. Highly profitable companies will head to the north end of the 15 P/E. They will provide CONSISTENT returns, albeit, not always market beating ones. Stable, but more risky stocks, offer a payback in less time. Face it, if you buy a stock, you want it to pay for itself before you grow OLD. Beyond 8-15 years, you will change your mind and move on to greener pastures. As well, you should. Yes, 500% or more percentage returns are possible, in shorter time frames, but for the MOST part, that comes from years of investing, and getting it RIGHT, in a single stock. Neither of those is easy to do.

So, play some odds. Use good sense about it.

Ordinarily, I would recommend a diversified portfolio. But, I am SERIOUSLY beginning to wonder, if this is the time for that. OK, mergers, aquisitions on the rise, stocks up 35% from bottom, all signs the bull is out of the bag. Shorters are running scared. GOOD. Inflation is so likely, it is not funny. All positive signs for stocks. EXCEPT, P/E's are too high. And, I am willing to bet dollars to donuts that will have to come down. For a WHOLE LOT of them.

First, my late BLUNDERS. Two stocks, I should have been buying, and let it slip, until,,, ALMOST too late. And, to tell the truth, I am still deliberating, but I KNOW my conscience is WRONG on this. Both happen to be in the shipping industry. The problem right now, with this industry is OVER-SUPPLY? Too many ships, too little market. Just over one year ago, the market worked quite differently. Supply, could not meet demand. And, it paid a PREMIUM for newer ships. Now, if you listen to the media, there is little market for anything. The question is, can this sector "stay afloat"? Well, coming quickly to the chase, there are TWO in this sector, that stand out. DSX, Diana Shipping, and TBSI, TBS Industries. I missed DSX at $12.00 and change lately and I have been kicking myself ever since. They did cut the dividend, which used to be decent, at about 3+%. I want to believe they will go back to that at some point. With a 3% dividend, and stock price growth, they make a fine stock to own. Even so, at $12, I MISSED, the much of the growth potential for that stock to rise again to $16, $24, and higher. I believe it will, and it will return to dividends, but likely in the 1% range. It is still a good stock, and will explain BRIEFLY later.

Why invest in TBSI? Because less than 3 years ago, the stock appreciated 800%. Same industry as DSX. What happened? Well, we had a little thing called a GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS. Anybody with debt, was considered the worst sinner of all time. SHIPS, cost money to build and maintain.

Why I like shipping. Barriers to entry are substantial. Oceans get bigger, not smaller. Better players will get more market share.

WARNING, WARNING, DANGER Will Robinson. These are MARVELOUS day trades, but like me, you are likely to lose your shirt if you miss-judge even slightly. HIGHLY volitile. Not for the squeamish. But, good long term plays.

OK, what have I been doing right? DIVIDEND plays.Two stand out immediately, and a third is showing tons of promise. Well, my first theory in investing is do not LOSE money. I did ride the last downturn, to not lose market share. That may have been a poor move on my part, but it too had benefit. I did not have to decide after the fact, where to put money. I knew. Dividend plays.

So, I give you these two up front. TNH, Terra Nitrogen. Dividend over 8%. Not cheap stock, not big company. Concerns me the company is so small, but it is stout enough, to fend off some would be buyers. Sooner or later, the BIG bucks will win, but in the mean time, this is a stock, hard to over-look.

Second on my "buy' list is BP. It is a petroleum player, with a 6%+ dividend. It is hard to deny the sector will do good over time. It is not the biggest, and maybe not the best, in volume, but I like the management.

Third on my success list is BHP. I like the fact it is a commodities player right now, and one of the biggest. It is a producer of "all" natural resources. Pick one. Gold, they mine it. Silver, got that too. Iron ore, likely the biggest. Rubies, that too. Diamonds, no thumbs down there either.
Reasonable stock price, and a stock buy-back plan for years to come. To be aquired? Who are you kidding? This company will acquire others.

Those convictions I feel good about. If I had to put my whole portfolio, in the hands of those, I could sleep well at night.

Then I do have some, that resemble FLEAS. And these, keep me up.

Natural gas, SHOULD be thriving right now, but it is not. Some of that does not make me sleep well too.

The CEO of Chesapeake Energy should be FIRED. He is over-payed, and under-delivers. None the less, he owns (CEO), the largest natural gas producer in the world. A poorly owed and run company, but how do you ignore that in a time of "green is better"? This sorry SOB will still likely profit. But, when he does, can I?

MAYBE, but it is RISKY!

Bet on AXAS, Abraxas Energy. Pitifully, in debt. partners are consolidating LOSING companies to make a last stand. But, it is a negative P/E (rightfully so). If they can get their head out of their (ARSE?) the company could be profitable, or an acquistion target worth having?. Both make money for stockholders.

It has been tempting, to consolidate into a few that I KNOW will produce returns. And, before I leave this I mention TWO more. Diamond Offshore (DO) and Noble Energy(NE). Both offshore oil
drillers, but the other forgetten thing about investments is bet on MANAGEMENT. These are some of the best.

It is TEMPTING, for me to consolidate into just THESE, and I will bet dollars to donuts I beat the market SOUNDLY.

But, I know, you DO have to be diversified.

Bet on a bank?,,,,,,, I do love a good joke. It it right up there with the US CONGRESS. A hall filled with court jesters.

Then again, who says I am right? Two facts you should know BEFORE you judge me. Before the econmy collapsed, I was beating the market, by about 7-10%. Since it has collapsed, I have been beating it by 5-35%, depending on the day you check. 20% is a ballpark.

I did not fall off the hay-wagon just yesterday. Short term plan, find dividends, while they still exist. Growth will follow. Then , be patient, and re-invest.

Comments: View Comments |  Wednesday October 7, 2009