I Eat Bear

OK, I made a mistake, and will rectify some of that here. The mistake, well, the portfolio starting balance is ten times bigger than I thought it was. We should all be woken up to find we have ten times more than we thought we did! So, I will be doing some significant buys, on mostly excellent companies.

Buy at the open the following:

200 shares GLW
200 shares DE
200 shares MON
200 shares POT
200 shares DD
200 shares CCL
200 shares KO
200 shares TEX
200 shares MRO
200 shares RTN
200 shares BA
200 shares MRK
200 shares HON
200 shares SII
200 shares WFT
150 shares SNHY
200 shares FSLR
200 shares CY
200 shares FCX
200 shares RTP
200 shares ATW
200 shares GME
200 shares COP
200 shares CVX
200 shares LVS
1000 shares ABP

I will start with a correction, and an amount on ABP. Whereas, I had initially intened to balance out a 100K portfolio, I am now using a 1M portfolio, and more than 1000 shares of ABP may involve more isk than I want to add right now. So, instead of the balance of cash, I want a mere 1000 shares.

Secondly, I want to address SNHY. It has taken a virtual pounding lately, so I find it a scary stock and want a limited amount of it. But, when I inially bought it (for real), it went up 20% the day I bought it. It could happen again. But it also dropped 50% from that level, and of coarse, I was on that wild ride too (but should not have been). But, it is a market leader in valve technology, specifically used for oil rigs, but also other applications. I have to take that chance here, that it may rebound, as it has been beaten down pretty good. Still, the p/e of 19 has room to drop still, but it once was 30. Which way will it go? It will go with the market as a whole. I believe in the market, for the long term, but the short term right now is more bearish, and may get worse before it gets better.

This is also a good entry point to discuss LVS. Again, the P/E here is phoenomonal, but it too has been beaten back. Two years ago, LVS was based in Las Vegas only. Now, it is in Macau, Pennsylvania, and has options on Japan. It has a great deal of yet unrealized earning potential.
As such, it has earned an entry in this portfolio.

Solar energy is getting a lot of attention right now, so I picked two market leaders. FSLR is the top solar candidate to succeed in my opinion, but a wholly owned subsidiary of CY is a cheap entry into that as well. CY also adds a smidgeon of more diversity to the technology sector, and has been beaten up pretty good lately. I hate to buy high, and I likely am with FSLR, but I don't think we have seen the top on this one yet.

Mining is just plain a good sector, as raw materials are currently, and will be in need for generations to come. FCX pays a good dividend, is well run, and a leader in the sector, and in returns. What is not to like there? RTP is in the midddle of a hostile takeover from BHP, and China does not like the takeover attempt at all, for fear of price increasse to the natural resources they so desperately need. It has gone up substaantially lately, but I just don't see any downside potential. Nobody will let the bottom drop out here, as too many people have too much to gain by supporting it.

ATW is not the best of the shipping companies, but it does have a stellar balance sheet. I add it here for just that reaon.

Oil services will be up , in my opinion due to increased drilling activity in 2008, so I add SII (Smith International) and WFT (Weatherford). Both are leaders in the field.

BA (Boeing) and HON (Honeywell) are good aviation suppliers. BA for it's 787 which should hit production next year, and Honeywell for it's cockpit solutions, and helicopters, plus it's interactions with the defense industry. RTN (Raytheon) is also a good player here, so have added that as well.

MRO (Marathon Oil) is at present my entry of refining. I chose them for a recent pounding they took for an earnings miss. I think they will bounce back from that miss, but it may take a while.

TEX (TEREX) is a good construction bet, as they make a lot of heavy equipment need for that industry

CCL (Carnival) is an A+ rated company with a reasonable dividend.

KO (Coca Cola) is a well run company, expanding it's global presence. Global growth should make money here.

GLW (Corning) is a player in glass and cable fiber optics. It should do better than the market as a whole, assuming there is no deep recession.

DE (John Deere), MON (Monsanto), POT (Potash), and DD (E. I DuPont) are all entries to support agriculture, a growing market segment,and all top notch companies with absolutely beautiful chart patterns.

GME (GameStop) - this will be my one entry into retail at this point, and it is based on my belief more in kids, than retail. Kids come in ranges of ages of 4 to more than 80, but it would seem video games are a growing market. Rather than make a choice for a particular game maker, choose one the largest retailers of all video games. The thing that gives some edge here, is the sale/resale of used games, as well as new ones.

Last, but not least is major players in oil and gas, that do vitually everything from drilling the well, to refining, to retail. For this I chose the number two and number three players, and go with CVX (Chevron) and COP (Conoco Phillips). I suppose I could have gone with Exxon, but let's go with the idea that number two and number three, just have to try harder to be number one. I think they will, and that will means dollars added to this portfolio.

Comments: View Comments |  Monday February 4, 2008  |  Stocks: ABP, ATW, BA, CCL, COP, CVX, CY, DD, DE, FCX, FSLR, GLW, GME, HON, KO, LVS, MON, MRK, MRO, POT, RTN, RTP, SII, SNHY, TEX, WFT,