to what Paulsen said?

To PROTECT our Banking system,,,,, and then he thought to add the economy as a whole?

What was that afterthought about?

Grabbing at a straw, to save his little darlings.

Banks.

Not you, not me, not the economy.

Gee, I hope he finds,,, an unemployment line,,,

and soon!

Comments: View Comments |  Tuesday September 30, 2008

Today, the market came thundering down, but the sky did not fall. Too many bankers are predicting total doom, and it still will not happen. Oh, it may happen to them, and to that I say BRAVO! You mis-managed to the scale of a global crisis. Just how much sympathy am I supposed to have for that?

And the Fed allowed Wachovia to be absorbed by Citigroup. Be sure to spread the bad debt around, and JP Morgan and Bank of America have already been beneficiaries. The government, namely the Fed, is acting just like a parent, to make sure one kid does not get something another does not. Yes, the court jesters are back in session too. Congress that is.

But, just for one second, lets's see what happens if Congress does NOTHING. Let's assume credit markets do freeze. SO WHAT? More banks go out of business. That is already happening, and will continue to. Money is not available for personal loans. Nothing new there either, for many people. Growth stops. Like it has NOT? Businesses cannot get more capital.
Ok, not my favorite, but it still will not cause the sky to fall. Unemployment will rise. Like it isn't already?

And the blame goes squarely to banks (financial institutions collectively) and the court jesters.

But, what really happens after things get worse? People tighten the belts, and begin to save everything. Is that a bad thing? Businesses have to learn to operate on cash flows. Is that a bad thing?

The bad thing is there will be destruction of the consumer. Yes, that IS a bad thing. But, when things get desperate enough, a few will return to markets, mostly for necessities. I suppose luxury goods is going to suffer some. Is that a bad thing? Peope may have to work together?
Would that cause the sky to fall? I doubt it.

It is all about short term pain. If it is going to crash, get on with it, so we CAN RECOVER. Just that the post recovery will be a different place. Is that a bad thing? Not from where I sit.

So, doing NOTHING, is not the worst option on the planet, and it has the potential to be a far better plan than the court jesters have.

Doing nothing will cause a depression? News flash folks. We are in one! And no matter what the court jesters do, we still will be.

Honestly, I try to be fair the the court jesters too. I think they mean well. To them, it is all about the timing of the recovery. Sooner, keeps them in office longer. Hummm, another good reason to do NOTHING.

There will be a recovery. At least there always has been one before, so I have to believe there will be now too. Maybe the question is not when, but what will the new world after it look like?

Listen to our court jesters and it will be a socialist system, and 45% or more of every dollar you make will be earmarked for the government. And how long before we re-enact debtors prisons too?

Have we so soon forgotten? This country was FOUNDED by people trying to avoid government interference and unreasonable taxation? Our fore-fathers fought to the death to PREVENT exactly what we are doing now, or may be about to.

Yes, it may be a sad day. There may still be more ahead, who knows. Some of them may get worse too. But, I assure you, at some point, things will get better.

And NO, Chicken Little, the sky will not fall. Regardless of what the court jesters do.

Comments: View Comments |  Monday September 29, 2008

I like the prospects for this stock, but I say with with reservations. I am learning about it, and somewhat the hard way. Yes, full disclosure is I own CHK, in both the lab, and real life.

Twice I have made the same mistake with it. In each case, it made nice gains, which I allowed to dwindle away to a negative number. The first time, I made a mistake (?) and sold it, for a small loss, as I did not really follow the stock that much at the time. I have since been watching it, and it has some very impressive things going on. But, before I get into that, briefly let me relate what I learned most from owning it. It has been HIGHLY cyclical. I have learned some lessons here, and this would seem to be one stock that the adage "go away in May, and stay away until October" would seem to fit to a tee. Oil in particular, except for this year of coarse, typically drops during summer months. The same is true of natural gas, which is the mainstay of CHK's business. This is because the most usage of natural gas is in the winter to heat homes.

Now, that is what has been happening in the past, and to ignore the past in picking a stock is just foolish.

Then the question comes as to what is on the future horizon? Well, the fact that the CEO is buying huge volumes of shares tells me he has faith in the company's prospects for the future.
That is one very big positive and could be a reason to buy, if no other reason could be found.
But, that is not all I see for CHK. They have found HUGE reserves of natural gas in Louisiana, which is quite possibly the largest in the world. Since until recently, the bulk of their natural gas came from Oklahoma, it is not like they will be traversing the globe to get there, ie, it is local to them (a mere few hundred miles). That alone, should help keep costs down.

Then I look to what I see from global demand. At the very least, I expect more cars to be powered by natural gas. This is already happening in some states, and I believe Nevada is a leader in this effort. The trend should gain support to, as it is cheaper to fill tanks with than gas is (but the conversion to use natural gas, as opposed to regular gas is not cheap). Still, I do expect conversions to take place, and for GM, Ford, and other manufacturers to start making these cars using natural gas fairly routinely. And, I don't think we are quite there yet, but I expect natural gas to replace some coal usage at electical power plants, just because it is a cleaner fuel than coal is. We do still have escalating concerns with with global wariming, and coal may be one of the worst offenders.

What could be the down sides. I certainly do see competion for CHK in some arenas. Both wind and solar are rising to the occasion. Yet neither is very efficient in energy storage or transfer, at least today Wind will increasingly be used as a souce of electrical generation, as will solar. I have seen prototpes of both used as sources of power for automobiles. But, there is yet to be a clear winner between wind, solar, and natural gas,, but the loser would seem to be gas, over time.

Buy, sell, or hold? The stock has been visiting the cellar in a big way lately, and it has yet to start any rebound. Ok, the economy, and depressed oil prices are hurting it badly (possibly not to mention some short sellers?). But, If you already own it, I sure would not be selling it. If you are looking to buy it, I would wait another month maybe, or until I see some signs of rebound.
Rebound it will though, and I expect, fairly nicely.

CHK has a sound balance sheet, and it is one of a few companies that drills and has it own rigs for it. So, I guess I should mention two of it's competitors that I also like. Devon Energy (DVN) is going to be a force to deal with in the Rocky mountain area, and has a substantial company size. A smaller company I see good things for in the future is Abraxas Petroleum (AXAS). Abraxas is Texas based primarily, but not exclusively. Several things I like about Abraxas very much. It too has a pristine balance sheet, and virtually no debt. It also has it own rigs, and does it's own drilling. And, it is a size, that makes it a target for acquisition. The low stock price on it right now merely reconfirms my conviction in good things for this stock in the future. Then again, the small size of Abraxas will be little threat to Chesapeake, as a company the size of Devon Energy might be.

Today, if you have it, hold it. If you have a mountain of cash on the sidelines, wait until it starts some rebound before you buy, but that should be happening in a matter of days, not months. And, if you are thinking about selling it now, well, I would not. It is your money, This is a tough stock to bet against, especially if you are a long term investor. Then again, even a long term investor needs to use some sense. It is CYCLICAL, in a big way, and I found that out the hard way. Time your buy and sell points, rather than wait for specific targets. If you have not made your target price by May, sell half anyway. There is a good chance you can buy back in close to or lower in early October, if history is any guide (and some times it is not, but it is an indicator not to be ignored either).

I consider myself a long term inverstor, and this is one stock I do like for the long term. Still, I think long term for this stock has many, many buys and sells you have to do, to make the most of what this stock has to offer over the long term. The cyclical nature of this stock has bitten me twice, and the economic downturn has only exaggerated it further the second time.

Have I lost faith in CHK? Not even a little bit. I just trade it smarter now, or will in the future.

Comments: View Comments |  Sunday September 28, 2008

It would seem that the government is once again pursuing blunders, and is still playing "Let's save the bank". How can I say that on the day the Fed siezed WAMU, for a quick sale to JP Morgan Chase? It is the bailout plan, and it has a HUGE flaw.

First, and most important is the US is standing up to try to help resolve a GLOBAL credit crisis. That is to say, the US is part of the problem, and not the entire problem. And, the US is getting limited support from other countires to help resolve it. Yes, I think there is some European support, and maybe a few others, but nodody else is digging deep into taxpayers pockets to fix this so called "banking crisis". And, I am beginning to think it is just "so called".
Why? Well, let's start with acquisitions. If things were so bad, would JP Morgan Chase have money to absorb Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual in the same year? Would Bank of America be in a position to pick up Countrywide, and spend $50 Billion for Merril Lynch? Ok, these may be excellent investments for them, so I am excited for their prospects. But the cost was too high. It cost jobs, savings, and heartache for countless people. Just a casualty of an acquisition? Maybe, but my heart goes out to those people more than I can mention here.

So, what is the real goal of this huge government bailout anyway? Well, it would be hard to say it does not heavily favor the banking industry (and I include investment houses in this group).
Support for a group that has basically mis-managed to the extent the problem is now GLOBAL in scale. I find that a little unfavomable in itself. Yes, they are letting some of the smaller, and possibly worst offenders fail. That is about the only thing I see them doing that shows any insight at all.

Once again, our untrained government, is tampering in the private sectors, and despite mountains of proof that they do it poorly, they still persist on doing it single handedly. What should they have done? Well, the first step would be to get the greatest business minds you can find together to pound out a resolution. That would be too easy, and to do so would mean they admit they are truly inept, and they are, and just proved it by not doing so.

But, let me offer some other ideas that just might have worked, and I have yet to hear any mention of. First, and the thing missing from the government bailouts is, the whole plan lacks INCENTIVES to do better. Instead, it sends the overwhelming message to businesses to get as large as possible, as soon as possible, because when you get a certain size, the government will unconditionally bail you out.

But the message from the government is equally clear on some other problems. There is no INCENTIVE to build anything NEW, which over time, could truly add to GDP. They are still trying to maintain, the defunct system they now have.

So, let me add something here that I think could be an asset to the government, rather than the liabilities it is so anxious to assume. And, it is fairly simple, and has a good chance to work.
And, better yet, it solves many of the evils resulting from this credit mess, and adds money to the government in the long term, rather than reducing it with the plans they have today.

The answer, in my book anyway, is for the government to offer grants to small business start-ups. Ok, we have some today, but to qualify, you have to be willing to work in economically depressed regions. Now is not the time for that. Make them available for economically prospering areas now too. And, yes, make a lot of them available.

Under this scenario, let's see what happens. Construction of many new sites, and for the sake of arguement, we are going to call that GROWTH, not to mention making employment for construction workers, and the employees required to run the new businesses. It may take a year or two, but a good percentage of these new businesses will be producing taxable revenues, so the government does get money back. Considering that we also have an unemployment problem in this country right now, this kind of plan would seem to be killing two birds with one stone. Then we have raw materials needed for both the site, and the new operation, so we have created a need for more products and services, which helps the bottom line of other businesses, which in turn, return tax revenue back to the government. It seems to me, this is more taxpayer relief than the plans the government is now proposing.

So, with a little less emphasis on trying to solve the GLOBAL problem, in just a few years, we could be solving the same problem, just using different methods. As cash is generated, and it should be, it becomes returned to the global economy. Oh, I am sure many of you are saying that does not solve the IMMEDIATE problem. Truth is, there probably is no cure for the IMMEDIATE problem, that does not create more problems than it solves. But, funding more small businesses is a start, that could produce long term positive results, rather than tossing good money after bad, as they seem to plan to do very shortly.

The US did not create the global problem (but did contribute nicely to it). Nor can it solve it alone. But, the answer is not to maintain a stagnant failing system either. The answer is to create GROWTH and INCENTIVES to succeed.

Could we collapse in the mean time? Well, yes, it might be painful. I doubt it would be fatal.
There would undoubtedly be more company failures, but that is likely to happen anyway, no matter what we do.

So, at the risk of sounding self-centered, maybe the solution to the problem, starts at home.
And, if the government is going to try to heal the ills of the global economy, maybe, just maybe, it is time for the physician to heal itself.

Comments: View Comments |  Friday September 26, 2008

Some may say it is easy to manage a portfolio, in the good times. Well, portfolios need managed in bad times too. And, if you have watched mine lately, there have been very few changes to it in terms of which stocks I have picked and stuck with. Yes, many of the ones I have picked have taken deep dives. I suppose that has happened to a few of you also.

Hindsight is always 20-20, and had I known ahead of time, exactly how the market would react, I would have done some things differently. The fact is, I should have known. So, if I had known, where would I have put my money, say 6 months ago? Chevron (CVX), Conoco Phillips (COP),
Transaocean (RIG), and Schlumbergger (SLB). Why? Well, mostly because they are incredibly stable, especially in downturns. Then again, CVX and COP are not likely to make large upward pops either, and I think SLB and RIG will, at some point in the fairly near future (within a year?).

Well, why did you not sell some on the big dips, or as they were falling? I guess there are two reasons to answer that question. One, is is I did not know how far, or fast they would fall. You can fault me for that one if you like, as I could have sold out, and bought back in cheaper. Of coarse that assume I know when they will bottom, and I am not privy to that either, but I suspect we are close to it right now. Which stocks specifically? Steel and coal top the list with US Steel (X), Acceletor-Mital (MT), and Arch Coal (ACI). They just happen to be in industries that have taken HUGE hits in the last few months, largely for the rises they face in terms of costs for raw materials to operate the businesses. But, the second reason that I have left them there I think is important also. I simply need those businesses in my portfolio for diversification. No, I can't say when they will turn profitable again, but sure as there is sunshine on some days, I am sure they will. The fundamentals on these companies is just too good not to.

Two others I have in the cellar in terms of performance I still like very much too. Freeport-McMoran (FCX), and Joy Global (JOYG). It was not that long ago, these were top performers in my portfolio. Since none of the fundamentals of the businesses themselves have changed, why would I want to sell them, especially now, for losses. The industries are just in a short term downturn. JOYG did have an earnings miss, and that certainly cost them in stock price, but they still have years of backlog for orders. Earnings misses happen to most companies at some point, just JOYG has them a bit more frequently than many. FCX is still a takeover target, pays a decent dividend, and is a premier gold and copper miner. Copper markets may be depressed right now, but there is still a global shortage of it compared to demand.

So, in short, maybe that is some justification for keeping some stocks, even though it would have been nice to have sold out at higher points, and bought back in at lower ones. I cannot undo that. But, as long as thes companies remain stars in the fields they are in, I am compelled to stick with them, yes, even on the downturns.

In this market, any stock still showing a profit, is a STELLAR stock. A GOOD stock is one that is down by only 10-15%. I have quite a few of both, but let me quickly touch on some of those in the down arena. National Oilwell Varco (NOV), Research in Motion (RIMM), Apple (AAPL), and Weatherford (WFT). These are all industry leaders, and most have production backlogs. If anything, I am still amazed they are down. I think some short selling has forced some of them down, especailly NOV. WFT aslo had a minor earnings miss, and I mentioned the beatings you get for that before with JOYG. RIMM and APPL are just in the technology sector, which is taking a beating right now, but it will recover, and projections are, it may be one of the first to recover. So, I maintain my faith in them.

So, what strategiy am I using right now? Well, you could say it is just sit and wait, and you would not be too far wrong. But, time is doing one thing for me. I am getting dividends. Maybe not much, but some. So, today I added a small share of Helca Mining (HL), and a few more shares of Manitowic (MTW). MTW has just dropped too far, in my opinion. HL, being a little more than a dollar from its 52 week low, stands to more than double to make it's 52 week high.
No, I am not adding large positions of either, but some.

Now, the lab does cost some, so periodically, I may have to divest some to keep my cash flow positive. Should that happen, EXCEL Maritime (EXM) and Dryships (DRYS) would be the first to go. Not because I don't like them, but because I have other shippers I like far better, specifically, Genco (GNK), TBS Internaional (TBSI), and Diana Shipping (DSX). Since I have decent representation in that sector already, that would be a place for me to look to divest. Still, I will hold them as long as I can, as who knows when the market in that sector may turn up. At the very least though, EXM and DRYS are on my watch list to sell.

So, in short I recommending two things. Maintain diversification, and continue to have faith in your fundamentally sound companies, and stocks. To do that, you may have to do a litlle, or a lot. Admittedly, right now, I am doing just a little, because I like the companies and stocks I maintain.. But, I do have an eye on it. And, just maybe, there is one more lesson here to.
Dividends can come in handy. They can provide extra income even in the downturns, to allow you to increase your cash position, or to add some stocks you think might rebound quickly.

And, last on my list of things to remind you of, is I am a long term investor. Typically, when I pick a stock, I plan to hold it for at least three years. If it is not that good, I typically will not buy it in the first place. Yes, I will rarely buy for a short term pop in a stock, but I have been burnt more often than not for that, so I do not recommend doing so. They are just too hard to get the right sell points on.

And one more item, I just thought of, but it is a good strategy, especially in this market. When you buy your stocks, consider putting a stop/ loss on them. It could keep you from losing money in this volatile market. Where to set that stop/loss depends on your risk tolerance, and the volatility of the stock. Don't set it too close to purchase price though, or you may be forced out, and end up paying more for trades than you potentially may have lost.

Comments: View Comments |  Tuesday September 23, 2008

I have many times spoken out to say short selling should be stopped, not just for select companies, but all companies. That is not to say that I am so niave as to believe it is the whole problem with the market right now. It does however go hand in hand with many other factors, and the combination has been proving deadly to the market as a whole. And, one reason I stand so steadfastly against short selling, is it is the part of the equation we can fix easily enough, just by halting it altogether.

The other big issue here, is we have HUGE hedge funds, and virtually all of these not only process short selling (legally or not), but they also have LARGE volumes of stocks. Enough in many cases, of a single stock, to have significant price control on the stock, even if just for a short period of time. Combined with short selling strategies, a short period of time is all they need. Buy the short, when they have the stock, then dump the stock in volume, to force the price down. The short becomes a self-fulfilling profecy.

So, the issue becomes fairly clear to me. Very simply, hedge funds, and investment institutions should be banned from ALL short selling activities. It becomes quite clear that we can not limit them from owning stocks, as collectively, that is what the fund is designed to do anyway.

Shorting stocks, is basically options trading anyway. So, why not regulate it so it is truly a useful market tool, like it was supposed to be in the first place. It got it's origin from the commodities markets, where companies truly needed to fix prices in the future, because the needed the resources to be gauranteed to be available, and to get higher/lower prices (depending on if you are a buyer or seller) for a specific item. So, the simple regulation needed, is if you need to be in this kind of a market at all, you must show proof, by taking possession of the item, or producing the item. No, I am not saying it has to be EVERY time, as that is not what the hedge is all about either, but a significant amount of the time. And I would make that a fairly high percentage, like 75% of the time. So, very simply, option traders have to register for a specific commodity, as only they can be option traded (all other options trading is banned), and they must show proof of intent to supply, and/or buy the commodity in question.

The beauty of this, is it can be uniformly applied to all businesses. Hedge funds can't do it, unless they plan to build grain silo's, oil resevoirs, or whatever, and I think that would have to be regulated to keep them out, but few would really want to. Their goal was always to make money, without ever taking posession anyway.

Now, this does not really do much about the problem that brought this market down so drastically in the first place, and to remind you, it was mortgage banks selling unsecured mortgages to unqualified buyers. Then to make the situation worse, these same instititions, sell packages of these mortgages, that can no longer be fairly priced, to large brokerages.
And, because the housing market had been so dependable in the past, those scooping up this now hideously bad debt, were insurance companies, investment banks, and funds of all kinds.

And, we are now seeing them fail, left and right. Keep in mind, they reaped in the good times, so my compassion is not high for them in the bad times. In fact, I get down-right angry about it at times. They have caused a significant unemployment problem, and have been a leading cause of large reductions in the financial funds many need for retirement, to say nothing to being a leading cause to the huge devaluation of the dollar. Yes, every time the government spends our taxpayer money for some undeseving bailout (and they are ALL undeserving, no matter how much it may need to be done), the dollar value dwindles.

Not so long ago, this country took on a war against terrorism, yet today, we are handing our American lifestyles away hand over fist, to foriegners, with every dive in the value of the dollar.
The cheaper dollar, allows them to buy in at reduced prices, reap profits, and support the terrorist activities they do anyway. We are just making it way to easy for them. No, not all foriegners are terrorist, so don't get the idea I mean it that way. But, if even ONE is, do we want to continue to make things this easy for them? We are helping them win, and I for one, want to see it halted, in any way we can.

Regulation of short-selling is a beginning. It is not a cure all. The problem is complex, and the solution will be too. But, having the government bail out businesses, is not the right answer either, as there is a significant cost to that, not to mention putting the government in places it does not belong in the first place. But, the government can, and should, make some simple rules to govern short selling, and what they have now is pitifully inadequate. That, in fact, really is what the government is for, (rather than to play who is our chosen bank today). And, the fact that they have not done so so far, is in my book, cause for heads of the SEC, Federal Trade Commision, and several others to be in an unemployment line somewhere.

Comments: View Comments |  Saturday September 20, 2008

No stock blog today, altough the market did a very nice bounce up today. More like maybe eating some words. Finally, and glad to do so.

First, as many of you have noticed, I have had little to no sympathy for all of the investments groups that bought all of the commercial paper relating to motgages (CDS). My reasoning is simple. The banks that originated the loans, did so at a profit, as did these buyers of packaged mortgages. In short, they already reaped in the good times, and they are not being held accountable in the bad times. And, I find it worse than just that. In their attempts to maintain solvency and/or liquidity, they have used other stock vehicles to force down stock prices. Merely by selling large volumes of stocks that they also own, the law of supply and demand forces stock prices down. There just are far less buyers than sellers. But they do get bought, just at reduced prices. And, they go through the same process, multiple times. Each time, the stock price reduces. Add that you have a group of short sellers out there, which is helping this process deteriorate quickly.

My big beef with all of this is very simple. It has robbed many people of many years of hard work to try to build up a retirement nest egg.

And, it is these same companies that are now failing, or being absorbed by others, that are the most guilty of this. Companies, are not people, but are composed of them. A company dies, and the employess are hurt. They lose jobs, and also much of their investment in the company they likely also invested in. So, the damages done by these very same businesses, is affecting a great deal of very real people. Yes, that chaps my buns. Why? Because it was avoidable, by using common sense.

But, today, I heard something positive from the group least likely to do something about it. Yes, the government. Ok, you may be saying they have done much lately, with interest rate cuts, Fed windows open, helping Bear Stearns be acquired, letting Lehman fail, and most recently, a huge buy in to AIG. I might add, that those may not all be the right moves, but the government is in fact trying,,, for a change. But, that is not what I applauded today. They are stopping short selling of bank stocks, and I think that is a wonderful start. I missed the whole story, but I think they said that was being done in Europe. I hope we follow suit, and do it for ALL businesses. But, even that was not the highlight of my day. They are FINALLY going to investigate all of the short selling, and yes, here in the US. BRAVO! They actually did something GOOD,,, or plan to. And, I had to appreciate John McCain in his announcement that he would FIRE the head of the SEC. Long overdue there, but not surprising, George Bush is still supporting him. In fairness to George, well, he has very few months left. As much as the action may have needed to be done, inaction was about as much as could be reasonably expected there.

Now, to moan and groan on AIG briefly. They turned down an offer of finacial assistance a day or two before the goverment comes in and throws taxpayer money down the tubes by giving them $85 Billion, and takes an 80% stake in the company. Well, the reason they give, is too big to fail. But, in truth, fail it did. The issue should be the orderly sale of all of it's assets. I will believe that when I see it. Ok, maybe to liquidate them quickly is an issue, but liquidate they surely should. It is only fair to every other business, especially since the government will not come to their rescue in times of distress anyway, as they did for AIG. But, the real issue here, and should not be missed, is that the government interfered into the private (business) sector.
This is clearly not a place for the government. And, the government is notorious for mis-management, not to mention, they just plain lack private business experience. But, AIG failed to save itself when it had a chance to. I find it very hard to support either side here.

Now, the state of the current market is not new. It started a serious decline over one year ago in August. There were predictions that it would recover in the second quarter of this year. In actuality, earnings of most companies were good, yet the markets have continued a downward spiral, across virtually EVERY business. And, it is all due to a depressed housing market and investment houses that made bad choices. No, I do not have compassion for those companies. They reaped in the good times, and robbed from way too many REAL PEOPLE, by destroying their asset values. I have compassion for those who have lost small and large fortunes in this stock market, and for those who are unemployed as a result of this mess. And, what is worse, is I am now hearing projections that it may not turn back up until mid to late 2010. Some people will not have time to make the finacial recovery they need. Yes, this concerns me too.

But, despite my compassion for people, and lack of it for the failing finacial institions right now, the rest of the market will recover. To lose faith in the market as a whole, could likely be a huge mistake. It may well be one of the best buying opportunies of this century.

So, to wrap this up, Bravo for looking into short selling, and expand it into ALL businesses, not just the chosen few. And, not for a short time, but permanantly.

Comments: View Comments |  Thursday September 18, 2008

Today, Lehmann filed for chapter 11 bankrupcy. I have to look up my chapters, but I am not sure that means they are dead. Gee, I hope they are,,, as a company,,, and I do feel so very bad for the people that worked there. But, today, it is the broader economy I feel so much worse for.

This company, and many like them, have been the very same, robbing from your portfolio at will.
Merrill Lynch is no better, and neither was Bear Stearns. Crooks, that reaped in the good times, and should be HUNG by the neck until dead, for RAPING you me and millions of others.
Do I want AIG to fail? You bet,,, just as fast as possible. They are another rapist at large.

Oh, this is only FISCAL rape, but, violation of your sanity, and future, is RAPE, if not your physical body involved,

If you are asking me to have compassion here, I am sorry, I have none. When the DOW tilted down to 11000 for the first time this year, where was the first 400 points of recovery? ALL financials. YOU IDIOTS! Or was I? I stayed, because I knew, it could NOT be true.

The value of a good stock is the company behind it. I stand by that, and will untill they come and beat me until I croak We have lost sight of company assets, and moreover, company earnings. It is all about a demented analyst, or a company so far in debt, it has every right to rob "the PUBLIC". To that, I say BS, and forgive me for not writing it in full, but please get my intent.

Do I blame them? Not really, believe it or not. I blame the GOVERNMENT. A group of blind-sighted IDIOTS, seeking a pension, and otherwise, totally useless.

Ok, I AM for free markets, and maybe, just maybe, this way had to be tried. We now KNOW, beyond a shadow of a doubt, this way does not work.

We CAN NOT allow people who do not own stocks influence it's price. YES< that includes INVESTMENT BANKS, that should NOT be allowed to own ANY, at all. They can get revenues from trades ONLY.

And don't get me started on Bank of America. They were smart. Picking up all of the pond scum, which in the end, should make a beautiful rainbow, with a pot of gold at the end. BUT, the MORALITY of it, makes me sick.

I posted about Big Lots, profiting from those that can afford it least, Bank of America is no better, just smarter, and has more moola to toss into the fire. I pray for their day to come too.

50 BILLION,,,,,,,,, for a defunct Merill Lynch?

How about 50 BILLION, for this nation's 7 % unemployed,,, or better yet, a GOVERNMENT with some SENSE.

TRY, just try, to tell me,, the SEC does not know who, what and why this is all happening.
And, worse yet, they ALLOW it.

No, I do not live in an egg shell. The GLOBAL economy is is in turmoil. But, face some facts. China must again, and SOON, begin it's rebuilding, and continue to. Not just China, but India, Russia, Brazil,,,, and YES, the United States. Stagnant countries wither and DIE. It is an EAT or be EATEN world.

Should I applaude the carnivores? Maybe I should. In the mean time, I need to go lose some cookies, because my stomach for this carnage,,, well,, is just not up to it.

If there is no DIGNITY in this market, should I, ,,, or you be part of it?

Maybe it is not a matter of can you make money there any more.

Some things,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Money will NOT buy,,,,,,,,,,,, no matter how much of it you throw that way.

And, I bet a lot of you agree with me.

Comments: View Comments |  Tuesday September 16, 2008

Well, if you are expecting a blog about a specific stock, you will get one (and it will be short), but, it will be at the end.

Not the purpose of this one.

OK, for some of you, I am going to whine. Or am I? No, I am going to state the obvious.

If you don't OWN a stock, you should not be allowed to trade it.

Yes, that simple change, could do much to improve the markets.

Ok, for every rule, there is an exception. So, let me cover the one I see, that is most obvious.
Some businesses do need to hedge. Those businesses truly do intend to buy the resource they hedge in. If not at that price, at some price. Yes, much of this concept deals with commodities. Unfortunately, some fool got the idea, it should apply to most stocks too.

So, not only do we have futures trading, we now have options trading on many, too many stocks. No longer do you have to OWN a stock, or have INTENTION to buy the stock, or product, but GAMBLING, has become KING!

Yes, the market today, is NOT about OWNING a stock. It is about selling it short, or buying an option, which you never intend to fulfill anyway.

OK, I favor, the great American system of making money. This has gone too far.

We have hedge funds, that have accumulated vast amounts of cash, and as such, enough stocks to affect price. Was that EVER the INTENT of owning a SPECIFIC stock? Do they have that RIGHT? To some degree maybe, but that right is now being abused.

We have financial institutions, that issue stocks for businesses, and for doing that, get several thousand shares in return? The cost of doing business? Or, is it legal RAPE?
(Yes, grab your ankles for these folks)

First, get the attention of your congress person. Have them stop, in all forms, people that do not own stocks, from making trades in them. Yes, there still should be some "futures" trading, but have them REGISTER, and have them PROVE, they have an INTENT to recieve the item being bought.

Sound absurd? I bet that one change ALONE, would DOUBLE your portfolio,,, within a year.
We might actually go back to prices based on company performance.

And, another recent joke, I found not so funny. The AVERAGE ANALYST is right 6% of the time. And they, control stock prices? Not alone they don't. They need MEDIA support. And, there is another group, that should be hiding heads in shame. They instill PANIC, as they have learned, the public responds more to BAD news.

People, you MUST, put all of this out of your mind. In the long term, good companies, good stocks, and good earnings,,,, can and will,,,,, and MUST prevail.

If we all have to have a congressional revolt,,, well, so be it. Most of them should be unemployed anyway, and I wish that on nobody.

And, if you are an options trader, or a futures trader, I can only say one thing. I don't know when it will happen, but, you will get burnt, and I suspect badly. You too, should be praying for government reform, before you too, pay your come upance. You robbed, stole, and got away with it. But, there is a GOD. With a WICKED, sense of humor. And, you will be tested.

Ok, enough gloom and doom, I promised you a good stock pick,,, and YES, in this market.
Once again, I advise TNH. Terra Nitrogen. The dividend, is too good, especially in this market, to be ignored. Everyone is looking for a safe place, and this is one of the best. Not only do I look for a good dividend, I expect the flight to safety of the rest of the market, to make a significant stock price gains too. And, it is a sound company, in a good market segment (ag)..

So, for the short term, buy TNH. Then waste your time, and write a congressperson. I am not saying it will work. I expect them to IGNORE your request,,,, unless you include several hundred thousand dollars with it. That is what they do. But, it is OUR system, and until we have a better one, it will have to do.

But, we can all dream. If you OWN a stock, well, you take it with it's ups and downs. Do people that NEVER intend to own, have a right to impact ANYTHING about that stock?

And,, good luck, and good investing. Buy TNH,,, not because I own it,,,, and I do,,, but because YOU need to too!

Comments: View Comments |  Saturday September 6, 2008