Ordinarily, I am an optimist, and a bull. I have found that to be increasingly difficult lately. It could be just a cycle, and it will pass, or it could be a growing trend, that too many people believe in.

My biggest concern right now, is the possibility, that the world may end in less than five years.
NO, I do NOT want to predict it will, but too many people are living like it will. Crime is running rampant, the value of assets, is at an all time low, and people's morality,,,,, has to jump to hit bottom. Fortunately, no, not everyone feels this way.

Ok, I am not an optimist right now, but I would like to return to one, so, no more gloom and doom. Let's take a chance, that life, and morality, will continue, and return.

So, let me report some good things. My portfolio, is beating the market, once again. Because I am doing well? Regretably, no. Just once again, the indexes are doing worse. I have long been an advocate, that picking good stocks, and companies, will make beating the indexes, an easy task. In bad markets, everyone loses. Maybe the most positive sign I see in the market, is my portfolio is once again, back in the "beating the market" mode.. Hard to be proud of beating negative numbers, but in these times, I will take it,,,, and run.

Now, here is what I have to offer you. Take a look at my portfolio. Truthfully, it has a lot of BIG RED numbers in it. That will be abundantly evident. Try to overlook that. The things I want you to look at are the companies I invest in, and the percentages of investments in each.

For the most part, it is a REASONABLY well balanced portfolio, in terms of asset allocation. Yes, it does have exceptions. TNH, I have touted many times, and I still do. Realistically, any single stock that has a 10+% allocation, is just too high. But, in the conservative market we are experiencing right now, it's dividend is making it one of the fastest in stock price growth. Yes, it is a two for one, and as such, more portfolio is over-allocated to it (if markets were normal). For the short term, I can ride this one. For one other reason too. It's stock price makes it harder to get into later. It is not cheap, compared to many others. Easier to buy 50 shares at $10, than 3.1 shares at $125. Then again, the 3 shares may be the better value, in the long term.

NE, (Noble), is one of the percentages I want to keep high to. It is simply a performer. Good management, good company.

Most any company I have over 2% of is a good company. I do have some riskier ones in that mix too, and the most notable of that is JOYG. I have taken a POUNDING on it. But, for what it does, it is best in class. I can not say when things will return to normal (or when they will learn to make good estimates of earnings?), but I do believe in the company for good bounces. Hopefully, later, I will capitalize on that. For now, two things keep me in it, at my current percentages of investment. One, I do believe it will bounce. Another I have hope for (and not much faith, is MTW, Manitowic). The other goes back to previous investment. I had a fair amount of it. Do I want to sell at bottom prices? Not me! I am a LONG TERM investor. But, I do make short term adjustments. I will watch this one, and a few others. Percentages here are too high, for this market.

What do I like? Right now, I like some of the cheaper stocks. No, not because they are cheap.
Most cheap stocks will get you in a TON of trouble. Witness Forteseque Metals, a Jubak pic, struggling to stay in business. Then again, I did invest in it, but I did not bet the farm on it either. Some things, whether you invest in, in a big way, or a small one, you keep, for the possible, but not guaranteed bounce back. Be willing to accept some losses. I still like AXAS and GLBL for bouncers. GLBL, has a unique market niche, that it builds refineries, and services for them. It is not a big business with huge demand, but it is the best at what it does. AXAS, is a tiny player. A virtual guppie, in a BIG pond. And, they are very good at what they do. They will either amass cash, or be eaten up (likely both). Both of those prospects are good for investors.

Where is the market going? I find it hard to bet against precious metal miners right now. I think the dollar will devalue, and the value of gold will increase. I have long been a fan of BHP, as a truly diversified miner, of all natural materials. Also, a well managed company. That one is a no brainer to me. I have a fair amount of it, and I wish I had more. Not at the price of risking my existing diversification though. But, a portfolio of 5% of it will be a winner, in time. Now, I look to AUY, GG, and possibly, KGC, as premiere gold miners. Why miners? If gold goes up that much, well, those keeping, and producing, should beat those hoarding. And, if gold goes up, so will silver. It's price, although not as great, has historically, kept pace with gold, albeit slower. I look to HL (Helca) for silver. Then there is copper. FCX, has been a HUGE dissapointment lately. Percentages in my portfoilio, say I have too much of it. It may still be a takeover target, and was, and may still be for RIO. My guess, is BHP, is the more likey to take this one. And, I do think it will be taken, within two years.Which is why, I still maintain a fairly high percentage of it. Will I make up my losses in this. No, I don't think so. I can cut my losses though. And, if you are not in it, it might be something to consider. Again, I would not bet the farm, but, it has a good chance.

Most of the rest, is just good diversifaction, in good companies. The stocks may be broken.

Most are right now.

Small percentage investments, in a lot of good companies, is the way to market beating results.

And, together, we can all pray,,, there is a future,,, beyond five years.

Because if there is not, criminals will increase activity, and their population will grow. And you can forget about anything like, making money. Even that has a good side though. You won't need any. It will be worthless anyway.

So, let's pray there is a future. And, assume there will be one. The alternative is too bleak to consider.

Mine is not the only way. Use it as a guide,,,,,, and by all means IMPROVE on it.

It has some good dividend producers, and some good stock price growth stocks in it too. So, without giving up reasonable diversity, I would love to know how you did it.

Comments: View Comments |  Monday January 26, 2009

No, I have NOT lost all faith.

I have just ask myself,,

What is FAITH.

Faith, is what you can not see,, but you know,,

Must be true.

I NEVER wanted it so, but Obama, a black man with initials of "BO"

and a Woman,

later,, if there is a later

Begining of s new age.

Yes,,, for the FEW of you who survivre that long.

I maintain. 1 in 25 of you will not.
Rash odds.

I hope, I am wrong.

Comments: View Comments |  Tuesday January 20, 2009

I do believe, in oceans, and mankinds ability to overcome them.

I believe in individual stocks, and that they will overcome.

I DO NOT believe in Obama.

I do believe, we are in for a rash of,, well until recently, I would not have believed it.

People, now I recommend something ELSE.

Like the belief in the MAYAN calendar, or the TORAN calandar. The Mayan calendar, believes, or records through December 21, 2012. Likewise, the Toran calandar, measures 7000 years,
and ends soon.

We live in the last days,,, or quite possibly.

Criminals RULE, and get away with, virtrually,,

Everything.

Religion,,, will not save the masses. They will suffer, as that is what GOD promised.

No more than you can stand, but EVERYTHING, you CAN.

Dear GOD, I hope I am wrong this once.

I thought I made a mistake once,,,, but I was wrong?

At this point, I truly believe,

Whether you invest or not,, will not matter. The young might.

One in 25 of you might survive.

We are in a hole, and we as a nation, are not BRIGHT enough to stop digging.

The solutions are so simple. We buy, or we conquer. And, we have the people to spare.
So does China, India, and so many more.

We have a problem. Too many people, for the resources available.

I am betting, that a black man, with the initails of "BO", will be the FIRST downfall.

After that, it will be,,,, a woman,, that finishes things.

But, finished,,,, they will be.

OK, give me the GOOD OLD DAYS, when a man,,, loved his horse, treasured his gun (because he had to), and found a woman,, once in a while.

John Wayne, please, come back, and EDUCATE, a society,,

so very DESPERATELY, in need of it.

Or should I pray for an illisionist?

People, I think you just hired one.

The cost will be LIVES.. Not sure who's yet, but many of you will feel the pain.

Short term, you can NOT store enough. Grain, shelters, I no longer believe. Wrong,,, it is what I believe in. I believe in God, oceans, distance, and apples.

Never forget,,, if you believe in God.

This all started, with an apple,,,

and a promise,

and unless I miss my guess,,

we have the snake in the garden too.

Barack Obama.

2013, 45% of the population, will never see.. The ones that do, will wish, they did not.

Think it is a market?

No,, it is just greed.

Some, I blame them for,

Some,,, I am not the judge,,, and do not, and will not be

The way out, is conquer,, the RICH. And, the price is high.

And, saddest of all,,

that too,

is an illusion.

Comments: View Comments |  Tuesday January 20, 2009

Well, you could say, heed me not, as my portfolio is down more than 55% in just a year.

Then again, there is another way to look at this. 7 out of 12 months, I seriously out-performed the market as a whole. Ok, the other months were bad, and I do mean REALLY bad, but at the same time, those were the months that were bad for almost everyone.

Now, this is for YOU to decide. If you think we will have a bear market EVERY YEAR, consider me a fool, and move on. If you think, this last few months of the market is a little abnormal, you might want to give some of the rest of this some thought.

Two things I maintain. One is fully invested. The rules of strategy lab do not require fully invested, but more like 80%. I exceed that in both intent, and actuality. The second, is I maintain a diversified portfolio. I do that not only for the best investment strategy for the long term, and it is, but for the opportunity, to find greater growth, in both single stocks, and sectors.
Most lab winners, do so on 5 stocks, or less. Great for a game, but a POOR way to manage your portfolio.

So, without further ado, at present, I am recommending the dry shipping sector. The sector is simply pounded down too far. I am increasing the percentage of my portfolio of them. Now, they do have risks. Most have a significant amount of debt. Significant, but not insurmountable. The margins, have in the past, made those a reasonable risk, that not only will debt be covered, but that there will be funds for future investments in newer vessels. Notice my caveat, in the past. I am an optimist, and I think they will again. Maybe not so much because I believe in companies, but because I believe in OCEANS. Then again, there are a few decent dividend providers in this sector too. It is a VOLITILE sector, and if you are at all squeemish, this is NOT for you. It does offer some "oooh wow", returns possibilities for the long term, and if you time it right, you could become FILTHY RICH, just to mostly day trade it. Or you could lose the shirt off of your back if you miss, especially day trading. Buy good ones, and hold, for most of you.
TBSI, DSX, DRYS, GNK. Not a long term loser in the bunch. ATW is a good stable tanker company too, but not so much of a dry shipper. It could appreciate, in a better market.

I am violating one of my personal rules right now, and I do NOT believe any sound investor should have more than 5% in a single stock. But, I do. TNH, is approaching 10% of my portfolio. Many times, I have touted diversification, but in THIS market, it is just too good of a company, and the dividend simply can not be ignored. At this time, even I may be adding to it, for the SHORT TERM. It is SECURE,, or as close to anything I have found. Ok, they are pulling back on production, and that could be a bad thing for revenues. Or is it a good thing, for costs? I like the Agriculture sector, for the long term. Prices are showing signs of recovery. I would not wait much longer to get into this one. The stock price is NOT cheap, but I don't see it getting much cheaper either. A 10+% dividend? You have to believe in something. It is high, but even if it fails for a short term, the dividend is the company orientation, and it will be returned later.

CVX (Chevron) and FSLR (First Solar), I have a fair amount of. Largely because I had the shares already, and I did not sell. The good side there, is they lost little (compared to others).
Now, they could fall, to be more in-line with the market, but I doubt that. More likely, I think the market will recover, and they will recover faster. Despite the massive fall of oil, and my personal disfavor with COP (Conoco Phillips) (it simply is not the best at what it does), I have to call COP a buy right now too, and I am adding to it.

Add positions of GOLD and SILVER. Currently, the dollar is on the increase, and they are suffering. But, the "economic stimulus", has a price, and the dollar will fall. Don't bet the farm on these metals, or miners, but a reasonable investment in them would be hard to lose on, for a LONG TERM investor. AUY, GG, EGO, and HL might be things to look into.

Stocks I just plain LIKE. BHP (BHP Billiton), and DO (Diamonfd Offshore), just have too good of a history to be ignored. They will outperform again, in ANY kind of market, up or down. They are VERY well managed companies. Keep an extra percent or two, just for that. If it falls, take your lumps. AND, WAIT. You will not be dissappointed. Now, Diamond Offshore, is itself a subsidiary, but still a sound investment.

Bouncers, is another reason to keep a sound percentage in your portfolio. They usually have a technological advantage that keeps them strong. For these three, I like JOYG (Joy Global), NE (Noble Corp), and SII (Smith International). It is unforntunate, that NE and SII, have been hit by the oil price downturn, but if it even marginally hits a decent price, these companies will SERIOUSLY outperform.

Lastly, this is a very good time to be investing in SMALL companies. IF they bounce, you stand to gain, some EXCEEDINGLY LARGE percentage gains. The risk is high, but if you select wisely, you limit a lot of that. Pick secure sectors, and look at them for acquistions targets. Long term investing, is about large percentage gains. Dividends help, but, many of the smaller companies will simply blow away the dividends and stock price gains of larger more stable companies. The smaller stocks may get more on stock price gains alone, than some bigger counterparts For these, I like AXAS (Abraxas Petroleum) HL (Helca Mining) and GLBL (Global Industries). All have a history, of higher stock prices.

I have mentioned only a few, of a multitude of stocks available. I wish I could say I am always right, but I am not. Still, I do believe these few stocks could be the beginning of a good portfolio, and will enhance an existing one.

Do your OWN research, and when you do, let me know, how much you beat me by. I am not too old to learn. Just these,,, well experience tells me. My chances of market beating returns, are decent at best.

Chances. They are just that. So, Invest as much as you can feel comfortable with, and no more.

Then do one more thing. Imagine what you "think" you would do, if you were really rich. Probably, and hopefully, that is not what you would really do, but some part of that may not be all bad.

Expect to lose, and if you don't,,, you should be VERY HAPPY.

Money does NOT buy HAPPINESS. It might help though, to buy your way out of UNHAPPINESS!

Comments: View Comments |  Tuesday January 13, 2009

Collusion is illegal, everywhere EXCEPT the stock market. That needs to change.

Now, let's define it. A group, that is large enough to affect results.

That is a very encompassing definition.

But, in terms of today's market, I think I can make a pretty clear definition of it. A group, that contains enough stock, to force prices DOWN. They have no interest in stocks as they go higher. They merely want to reap gains from forcing prices down.

Who qualifies? Not the individual investor. They are a victim. Especially long term investors.

The FUNDS, are the culprits. And, who owns the funds? Investment banks largely.

OK, if funds are the problem, are they all bad? No, there must be a good one somewhere, but I am hard pressed to find a good reason for them. They simply do more bad than good, for the economy as a whole. Ok, if you are in one, you MIGHT get some benefit, as they RAPE the rest of the market. Then again, you may not even get that? WHY? Because the fund manager, gets a cut, as does the holder of the fund (the investment company).

It is the VOLUME of stocks that are the issue here. Much less than the type of fund, but the type of fund is important too. The volume of stocks they have, DOES force prices down, when sold en-mass. And they do. And they buy on significantly smaller volumes.

Now, if this happened only occasionally, I might not have a beef. That is NOT the case. This happens almost WEEKLY, and in some cases, more often. Sure, large firms could all make the same actions at the same time,, occassionally. It could NOT happen WEEKLY. Too coincidental. Or, it could be that ONE is just so unfathomly large as to cause this all by itself.
Since Bernny Madoff, I don't discount any possibility. The SEC is a group of BLIND mice,, or more succcinctly, a case of BLIND JUSTICE, as Arlo Guthry once made a spuff on in "Alice's Resteraunt"

If this is to be allowed, at all, it should be strictly governed. I personally believe all funds should be outlawed. But, I do think 401k funds have value for investors too. Not because they are good, but because they offer a forced investment, for those that just don't do it on their own. Then again, the fees for these funds, is rediculous, in almost EVERY case.

But, the fix for this is not so unreasonable either, and it requires only one change to the laws.
If you are going to be a fund, you MUST have a long term investor strategy. That is to say, if a fund owns a stock, it must hold it, for a minimum of two years.

Implement that ONE rule, and you will see the market volatility get reduced, SIGNIFICANTLY.
And, I will be willing to bet, the market will recover, far faster. And, it does something else too.
It gives the individual investor, some chance, to compete with the mammoth size of most funds.

There is little doubt there are other possible solutions, one of which is to limit the amount of any single stock a fund could own. Limiting trades to quarterly has also been considered. The issue with the limits on shares, does depend on the size of the fund, especially if it becomes a percentage. A small percentage, could still make a HUGE volume of a stock, in a very large fund. Limiting frequency of trades would seem to be beneficial, and maybe the quarterly idea has merit. Would a prudent company sell large volumes quarterly, if they knew they had to hold two years on a rebuy?

I don't think we can fix this collusion problem over-night. But, we do need to do something, besides turn a blind eye. Bernie Madoff did it largely as an individual. To ignore the possibility companies would try to control prices, to gain money,,,,, is simply foolish.

Personally, I do not think funds are ETHICAL, and for that reason ALONE, I do not support them. Is it morally right to make money for a few, at the expense of others? And, to give them any kind of an edge, is quite simply an abonomation to every moral law I can think of.

Comments: View Comments |  Tuesday January 13, 2009

There are two things to remember whenever considering an investment. It will make moey quickly, or it will make money reliably. The converse is it will lose money quickly, or it will hold value. The market offers no guarantees, either way. But, you can't have it BOTH ways.

Oh sure, there is some middle ground, where you get a dividend, and a reasonable (but no bragging rights) stock price appreciation. Hey, that is not a bad scenario, in a NORMAL market.

But, this is NOT a normal anything, especially a normal market.

So, my advice to you is this. Throw out EVERYTHING (except one, maybe two), that the market has told you about investing.

Big, is not bad, but it is not the best. It is RELIABLE, and for some of you, that is a GOOD investment.

But, it can be improved on by so, so very much.

Ok, the two things I want you to retain, from this bear market, is the PE, is still KING. Keep that thought,,, forever. High PE's are risky, and big companies with high PE's are a formula for a disaster waiting to happen. Then again, the same is not always true of a small company. It will be, it just has not gotten there.

Some cases in point, Las Vegas Sands, a year plus ago, had a PE of almost 200. When the bear market hit, it got POUNDED. Yes, I made a lot of money on LVS because it had a high PE, and I rode it during a BULL market. But I sold it, defore the decline (not true, the decline had started, but I limited losses/ and took gains).

Today, I look at the inverse case. Abraxas Petroleum, now has a PE of 55. That would be a seriously SCARY PE in a bear market. EXCEPT, the stock price on LVS (Las Vegas Sands) at the time was over $150 a share, and the price of AXAS (Abraxas) is under a $1.00 a share.

So, everything is relative. I am not saying to invest in LVS right now, but I do think AXAS is still a buy. But I do add this caveat. I did sell some today. Heck, it had a 54% gain in stock price in a SINGLE DAY. You MUST take some of that off the table. It was a NEWS event. Yes, I still like long term, and I will be a buyer again, but you have to take profits too.

And, that is the beginning of the rest of what I am going to tell you. Would a stock price gain, and a dividend of a DOW company, give you ANYTHING, remotely close to a 54% in a year.
Doubtful, at best. I got that, in ONE DAY, with AXAS.

So, the first thing I say here, is small may be the answer to your financial prayers. You may have to do a LOT of it to get BIG gains. Then again, the RISK, is large too. BUY, and hold, for a three year plan. Expect to lose, as the future PE is 5. But, you could ride AXAS, a year or two, and likely, see the PE drop to 20 and make a TON of money in the mean time. The stock is just too cheap!

That brings me to my second point, or was it my first. The PE is KING. The bear market has done it's damage,,, for the most part. And the result, is most shipping stocks, have a PE under 5, and some, under 2. Those, are rediculously low PE's, for sound investments, even in a bear market. GNK, TBSI, and DRYS, just can't lose. Be careful about that statement though, because this is likely the most VOLITILE segment, you will EVER find. You day traders would be in heaven with shipping stocks,, if you are right 20% of the time. For the rest of you, don't even try this. It can be INCREDIBLY expensive. I have done it, and made and lost money, and lunch.

But, the PE's are too low to ignore. And, they offer decent, to above average dividends (if they offer one at all). They are SMALL RISK investments, and the POTENTIAL for gains, is extremely great. Ok,they carry debt, and debt, is a bad word right now. So, they sell a ship, instead of buying the SIX they have on order. They are PLANNING, for future. Just like you, as an investor.

Then I ask these questions. Will the world-wide demand EVER diminish, even in a bear market,, or 10? Over time,, NO! Will oceans get smaller? Not likely. Can I drive to Australia from Canada, or the US? Not even remotely a possibily. Can I buy a fleet of ships, to compete with those in the market? (Yes, maybe, but most could not). But, let's safely say, the barriers to entry to this business are substanial. A PE, of under 5,, I can't meet a 5% interest rate to even try this.

So, this I say, and give it thought. In a bear market, low PE stocks, ARE the way to make TONS of money, Then agian, low stock price stocks can be too. THOSE, are the WAYS to make a RIDICULOUS, amount of money. They are NOT the most SECURE way to get there.

My SECOND recommendation, and maybe the third. DO NOT, listen to the media. They are paid fools. Set up your OWN portfolio, and YOU manage it. OK, you get lumps. I have, and you can llok at mine. When the bear hit, I was BEATEN, more than most. Then again, I EAT BEAR. I am A bull.

And, RIGHT NOW, percentage of gain,, is KING. It always was, but this is the TIME, to invest, for percentage growth.

Now, back to the down-side. I EXPECT a serious down-turn, with an optimistic, and hopeful/FOOLISH president elect. Look to invest in March, in a BIG way.

Short term, be VERY cautious. Long term,,,, this is one of the BEST times. Day traders,,,, shipping,,, and good LUCK.

Comments: View Comments |  Tuesday January 6, 2009