First on my list, is the media. Are they the forebearer or the palebearer? Granted, the news of late, has not been that great, nor the quality of it therein. To listen to the news media, they say this year's stock market recovery is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Yet, they almost refuse to admit, the market is down, in most cases more than the indexes show, not to mention the fact that last year, was devasting for stocks.

My answer on the media, is they are just there for paid hype. They have a job, and that is about the only POSITIVE I see there. They do that fairly poorly, too. But, before I sound too negative, some of the media stocks have been rebounding, of late. Still, a sector I would avoid like a plague.

So, do not listen to the news. Make your own opinions.

If I turn on the boob tube, even some of the educational channels would have you believe, the world will quite possibly come to a near end,, on DEC 21, 2012. How many times, have we heard predictions, that the world will end,, and not had it come true. Most recently, for the year 2000. And that was not even a small blip on the radar. Yet, we have people who BELIEVE, that NOSTRODAMUS, who lived centuries ago, is "the God of the future". Maybe,, but I am more
inclined to believe in geological history, than some soothsayer, from several centuries ago.

So, if you want something to worry about, I am going to give you quite a list. And, if you believe there will be life hereafter, I may give some proof of that too.

Things to WORRY about. Tops on my list, is a planetary collision, or a SEVERE volcanic eruption. Neither of those is likely, and both are possible. My guess is if either does happen, how much money you have, or don't will not matter one iota. Bend over, and kiss your cookies good-bye. But, let's assume for a minute, it is not THAT bad. My next list of worries is FUNDS, and the GOVERNMENT. Those are the most DANGEROUS things to your finacial health. Not, the stock market. Ok, I call a SPADE, a spade, (in a deck of cards). The government, is your WORST enemy, if you live in the US. Only a COMPLETE IDIOT, would bailout HUGE companies for making BLUNDERS, beyond belief. I can think of health care reforms, and economic stimulus packages, that would have TRUE benefit, that would not have SOAKED the taxpayer, the way OBAMA plans to. PEOPLE, get this STRAIGHT. OBAMA, is SOCIALIST.
Socialism DOES NOT WORK. That said, I will quickly move to the OTHER worry, which is FUNDS. Much like the government, they don't work. Big enough to solve a problem, but far more likely to cause one. It does not take a genius to see the fraud related to this. Pick a Ponzi, Maddoff, or others. But, that is the LEAST of the problem. Fees, mis-management, and greed, will rob you faster than most want to admit.

So, how do you get ANY sleep at night? Well, you need some faith in the future. And let me REMIND you of some other facts. Just a little over a year ago, the DOW, was over 14000. It is barely over half that now. Think it might get back there in time? Dollars to donuts it will. Ok, to hear the MEDIA, it will take a long time. And, based on the number of CROOKS, it may take longer. And, based on the INCOMPETENCE, of the government, you can bet, it will be a slow recovery. But, recovery, is in the cards, despite all of this.

To have a market recovery, you need to do a few simple things. ONE, is stop ALL short selling.
If you own stocks, and don't want them, sell them. NOBODY will stop that. TWO, abolish FUNDS. This WILL hurt, and I promise that. Too many refuse to accept responsibilty for their future, and this was a plan (LOOPHOLE) to help them. It only created a nightmare, to make the rich richer, and to RAPE, the rest of stockholders, not to mention open the door for GIGANTIC FRAUD.

Historically, INDIVIDUAL stockholders do a GREAT job, of determining market value. We do not NEED, a ton of Wall Street analyst.

Ok, we could maybe do with A LOT more unemployed. Start with the MEDIA, and get the GOVERNMENT in the act as soon as possible. Swing and SLASH the ax, and let heads ROLL.
And, pick your favorite market ANALYST, and include them in the list

Now, before I go on, I will add one more thing, and it too, is a positive. No matter how BLUNDERING, Obama and his ideas are (and they are REALLY out there), he has done ONE THING, I have not seen done, in MANY, MANY moons. He has actually put CONGRESS to work. Something they have not done in years. Does that restore my faith, in Uncle Funny (formerly Uncle Sam), or Congress (the court jesters). Not in the least. I COUNT on them. To make a MESS of anything they touch. But, it is good to see them work, no matter how POORLY, they do the job.

But, I do believe in TIME, and COMPANIES, and PROFIT. All indications say this is NEAR a bottom, if not an actual bottom.

A few indications say there will be life ten years from now. If there is a future, this might be a GOOD time to plan for it. If there is NOT to be a future, will it matter anyway?

And, there is this too. You can't fight the government,, and win. Right now, the government,, favors banks. Yes, you might make a TON of short term money there. I still bet against them both.

In short,, I believe in PEOPLE. I believe we have more good ones, than bad ones. I believe bad, will be VERY BAD. We could stop a lot of that. Unfortunately, we might need the GOVERNMENT to help with that. From there, God help us ALL!

I think, there will be a tomarrow, and a next day, and a next year, and years to come. I may not see all of that, but I BELIEVE in it. And, if you do, and you do not INVEST, for the future, Then ,, the FUTURE,, should happen to YOU.

Comments: View Comments |  Friday June 26, 2009

First, NO, I do NOT short, and never will.

My short here, is a hold, if you are already invested. And, jumping straight to the chase, my HOLD is Harley-Davidson (HOG). Great company, good management, great stock. Just WRONG time to buy. Even in the midst of EVERY economic indicator that says to.

OIL, is beginning to regain it's ground in pump price. Ordinarily, it would be good for a HOG too, but not this time. The brand name,, just costs too much. Even the status symbol, will have to come down in price. But, the financing is there, and if you prefer a loud noise to a good BIKE, and you want to drink with "the good ol' boys", well Harley is not all bad. I do prefer a HONDA, but that is MY taste. In fact, I have NEVER owned a Harley, but I do believe in the stock. I have owned bikes by three OTHER manufacturers, and by my guess, all three have outperformed a Harley. The cost is just too high, for the PERCIEVED value, and status. And, it will hurt the stock price,, this year.

OK, that is my short. Not a short mind you, a stock HOLD, if you own it. I would not buy it right now.

Oil, is almost a no-brainer right now. I would invest almost anywhere, Yes, I do believe we may be entering a short term top on oil prices, so do be careful. You could see a retrenchment or a surge up. Either way, the long term prospect for oil, is only up. This is a buy and hold DREAM for most investors. And, better yet, as pump prices rise, and the rest of the economy CRIES BIG TEARS,, yes, you still pay at the pump, but,,, you also laugh all the way to the bank. Stock price gains SHOULD exceed pump price gains. Nothing is EVER guaranteed, but over time, it should (especially, if you pick one with a DECENT dividend, and there are many). OIL, is not you thing? What about a driller, or a services provider. DO (Diamond Offshore), is definitely a rebounder SLB (Schlumberger) and RIG (Transaocean), both rebounding nicely.
Yes, there is a market top, and buying now has risks. Much less if you are a LONG term investor. Buy, and HOLD. Even the downtrodden, will rebound. Service prividers, SII (Smith-International) and WFT (Weatherford) will make some rebound. Ok, I lost a bundle here before, but they were the top, in the market, and that day will return. Or, so I beieve. But, I have been wrong before, and may be again, but I doubt it.

On to the riskier stocks. I am VIOLENTLY opposed to bank stocks right now. And this one is more close to a bank than I like to think, but GE deserves a look. Oh, for the days, when GE just did what it does, but it had to diverify into EVERYTHING, and has too much exposure to the media, and banking. Still I do believe in it's CORE businesses, of electrical appliances, wind power, aircraft engines. GE has always had reliable returns. The problem with GE is it SELDOM has market BEATING returns. That might change this year. Either way, the value of the assets is just too great. Anything, ANYTHING, they spin off, is likely to make you more than the stock price today.

For a LONG term investor, I would be fooish to neglect my favorites. I believe in BHP (BHP Billiton). He who controls resources, controls the world. They are too diverisfied, to be a BIG loser. That transforms into long term profit, for you and me.

No, I did NOT fall off of the haywagon just yesterday. Gold and silver, must also make so AMAZING comebacks. Our FOOLISH government spending is bound to cause inflation. Pick a miner, or funds specializing in them. Do watch out for hight debt, as lower debt will increase performance on your stock pick.

Tech's look good. Be very careful. First to rebound, may be the first bubble burst. It has happened before.

Agriculture looks good. DE (John-Deere), a good, well managed company. POT, an oligopoly, by most any other name, MOS (Mosaic) a chemical contender, TNH (Terra Nitrogen), a good play, well run, and one of the best dividends in ANY sector.

Stocks to avoid at all cost? ANYTHING, and I do mean ANYTHING, related to the US GOVERNMENT. Money, insurance, real estate, you name it. They could not manage their way out of a wet paper bag in a desert, if they were carrying a full water bottle, and had directions to a town two miles away.

Comments: View Comments |  Tuesday June 9, 2009

To be sure, the patience of investors is being tested right now. Strategies of buy and hold, against shorter term day trades, strategies of longs versus shorts, and yes, even sector strategies, are all under the microscope.

Far be it from me, to say I got them all right. But, I do have some insights. And, yes, many of those are opinionated. Imagine that from me,, the confirmed non-believer in Uncle Funny (formerly Uncle Sam), and congress (the court jesters).

Well, let me say this. I don't think Uncle Funny and the court jesters had a plan to turn around the economy, but their LACK of a plan may have done something positive.

It does not matter how poorly planned the plan, if it is percieved to be beneficial. Or even, for that matter if the plan has any merit at all. It matters, that action was taken. Mostly, the wrong ones mind you, but they were actions.

And, despite HUGE losses for most people, in their portfolios, I do believe, in a life, after. That is a statement about stocks, and ONLY about stocks.

Yes, I rode down the market crash. Some will call me incredibly stupid, and I would find that hard to disagree with. I have paid DEARLY for that. Then again, I am also part of it's rebound.

All stocks do not drop at the same time, and all do not recover at the same rate. I look at MONTHS ago, and my stocks on the top of the heap, are now the bottom. And many of those I would have NEVER invested in, are the ones recovering first. But, investing is about TWO concepts. A belief in the company, and especially, the management of the company,,, and TIME. The rest will take care of itself.

To some degree, I am an optimist. No matter what price you buy in at, in time, the market, and your stock value, will go higher. Just last year, the DOW topped 14,000. At some point, it will surpass that number. Yes, I do believe that. It may take a while, but it is just about as sure as raindrops.

And, NO, I do NOT approve of shorting strategies. Very few shortist, ever get enough right, to make the strategy worth while. So, over the long term, my bet, is TIME will make you a winner.
With the DOW at 8750, and undeniably a tough buy point, because a market correction is inevitable (to the lower), It makes less than NO sense to me, to NOT be a BUYER. No, you are not buying at the bottom. Since when, did most investors EVER do that.

OK, there is merit to the day trade right now. Too many stocks are having BIG swings, on a day to day basis. I too have tenencies, for day trading. Call it the GAMBLER in me, but even I know, it is gambling. In the LONG term, day traders lose too.

So, what is an investor to do. Number ONE one the list, is become active. Monitor stocks, and your portfolio. Look at what it costs, to be in FUNDS, and also look at the non-producive (usually) use of YOUR money. Uninvested money, is non-productive use. Everyone BELIEVES in SOMETHING. Up, down, stocks, bonds, treasuries, foriegn curriencies, gold, copper, pig bellies, pets, oil, or a ruby for grandma's belly button. They all go up, and down, and not at the same rate.

This is my last statement. Ok, most of us got raped. It did not feel good. But, we can go on.
Life may only be half of what it can be. But, it can be, and chances are darned good it will be,, at some point,, much better.

Despite Uncle Funny, and the court jesters. Not because of them.

I wish I could give you good investment choices right now. I REFUSE to invest in banks, but they may be your best return.

But, for those of you so inclined, despite what seems TODAY to be a market top, in a stock, or even sector,, I bet it is not.

So, I remain,, fully invested, and I will beat the market. If I had more funds, I would be a buyer,, yes, even at this undeniable top,, because it will seem a pittance later.

Comments: View Comments |  Friday June 5, 2009