I Eat Bear

First, NO, I do NOT short, and never will.

My short here, is a hold, if you are already invested. And, jumping straight to the chase, my HOLD is Harley-Davidson (HOG). Great company, good management, great stock. Just WRONG time to buy. Even in the midst of EVERY economic indicator that says to.

OIL, is beginning to regain it's ground in pump price. Ordinarily, it would be good for a HOG too, but not this time. The brand name,, just costs too much. Even the status symbol, will have to come down in price. But, the financing is there, and if you prefer a loud noise to a good BIKE, and you want to drink with "the good ol' boys", well Harley is not all bad. I do prefer a HONDA, but that is MY taste. In fact, I have NEVER owned a Harley, but I do believe in the stock. I have owned bikes by three OTHER manufacturers, and by my guess, all three have outperformed a Harley. The cost is just too high, for the PERCIEVED value, and status. And, it will hurt the stock price,, this year.

OK, that is my short. Not a short mind you, a stock HOLD, if you own it. I would not buy it right now.

Oil, is almost a no-brainer right now. I would invest almost anywhere, Yes, I do believe we may be entering a short term top on oil prices, so do be careful. You could see a retrenchment or a surge up. Either way, the long term prospect for oil, is only up. This is a buy and hold DREAM for most investors. And, better yet, as pump prices rise, and the rest of the economy CRIES BIG TEARS,, yes, you still pay at the pump, but,,, you also laugh all the way to the bank. Stock price gains SHOULD exceed pump price gains. Nothing is EVER guaranteed, but over time, it should (especially, if you pick one with a DECENT dividend, and there are many). OIL, is not you thing? What about a driller, or a services provider. DO (Diamond Offshore), is definitely a rebounder SLB (Schlumberger) and RIG (Transaocean), both rebounding nicely.
Yes, there is a market top, and buying now has risks. Much less if you are a LONG term investor. Buy, and HOLD. Even the downtrodden, will rebound. Service prividers, SII (Smith-International) and WFT (Weatherford) will make some rebound. Ok, I lost a bundle here before, but they were the top, in the market, and that day will return. Or, so I beieve. But, I have been wrong before, and may be again, but I doubt it.

On to the riskier stocks. I am VIOLENTLY opposed to bank stocks right now. And this one is more close to a bank than I like to think, but GE deserves a look. Oh, for the days, when GE just did what it does, but it had to diverify into EVERYTHING, and has too much exposure to the media, and banking. Still I do believe in it's CORE businesses, of electrical appliances, wind power, aircraft engines. GE has always had reliable returns. The problem with GE is it SELDOM has market BEATING returns. That might change this year. Either way, the value of the assets is just too great. Anything, ANYTHING, they spin off, is likely to make you more than the stock price today.

For a LONG term investor, I would be fooish to neglect my favorites. I believe in BHP (BHP Billiton). He who controls resources, controls the world. They are too diverisfied, to be a BIG loser. That transforms into long term profit, for you and me.

No, I did NOT fall off of the haywagon just yesterday. Gold and silver, must also make so AMAZING comebacks. Our FOOLISH government spending is bound to cause inflation. Pick a miner, or funds specializing in them. Do watch out for hight debt, as lower debt will increase performance on your stock pick.

Tech's look good. Be very careful. First to rebound, may be the first bubble burst. It has happened before.

Agriculture looks good. DE (John-Deere), a good, well managed company. POT, an oligopoly, by most any other name, MOS (Mosaic) a chemical contender, TNH (Terra Nitrogen), a good play, well run, and one of the best dividends in ANY sector.

Stocks to avoid at all cost? ANYTHING, and I do mean ANYTHING, related to the US GOVERNMENT. Money, insurance, real estate, you name it. They could not manage their way out of a wet paper bag in a desert, if they were carrying a full water bottle, and had directions to a town two miles away.

Comments: View Comments |  Tuesday June 9, 2009