Yes, I will bet.

I have known, FINE SINGLE parents, that have ask NOTHING,, from ANYBODY,, but to be able to raise the kids they bore.

And , I know sleazy worethless,,, so and so's
that have ask that we support them

And we do.

It is the LAW

It does not matter,, man or woman. A woman wants a child,, BIOLOGICALLY, whether or NOT, she is right for the job as a PARENT.

SOMETIMES, it is the MAN,, that steps up to the PLATE.

And this SORRY,, GOVERNMENT,, that wants to so stauchly support a WOMAN, needs to FINAlLLY,, GET IT'S head OUT OF IT'S ASS.

YOU HAVE TAXED THE WRONG ONES

MORONS

AND,, this is what keeps this country STRONG?

No, it is the SOLDIERS,, underneath,,,

with little say in what goes on.

Try,, just try

to live without them.

In the end,, they will vote.

What made this country STRONG?

It's TAX, on the single working stiff.

It does, and will continue to.

It RAPES, the poor, the unwilling, to ADMIT, the FAILURES of the system,, because,, , they are just one.

I am here to tell you,,,,,,

the just one,,

is about to OVERRULE you

You are STUPID, and you deserve it
I Have paid your SALARY, for too long.

And, I will do what I can to REMOVE you and your money grubbing cohorts,, from office

Want to do SOMETHING,, to help the people?

Shut the FU** up,,and REMOVE government.

Then, the world, people, and free markets,,, have a chance.

But, without further ado, that ONE was the assault on banks. And, I applaude it. Specifically, two things about it. One, and most importantly, it keeps banks from trying to control the stock market. It would allow them to invest for clients only! BRAVO! Finally, maybe the market can get back to what it was intended to do. The market was designed to be an investment vehicle for INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS, and to get rid of the likes of Goldman Sach's computer programs to control market prices can only be a good thing. Will it do it? No, unfortunately, this bill will not go far enough for that, but it IS a good start. Why won't it stop Goldman Sachs? They simply will cease to have any relationship with anything to relate them to a bank. The plans of the administration did catch the culprits, but it left the door open for them to escape. And, escape, they will. You heard it here first.

Secondly, it is close to being the first thing done to deal with the "too big to fail", which was the Obama administration's ALIBI for the bailouts (to the undeserving) provided last year to the likes of AIG, BAC, CIT, GM, and others. Ok, you have to start somewhere. Admittedly, this is the tiniest of steps, but it is a step.

But, this fool just does NOT learn. He still has YET to understand. The government does not belong in the PRIVATE SECTOR. His idea of salary caps is just short of insanity, even if it does need doing. He is not the one to do it. The SHAREHOLDERS are the ones to do it.

Being an "out of the closet socialist", it is too much to hope for that Obama will do what needs doing, which is to reduce the impact of GOVERNMENT on the people, but as long as he persists in doing what he has no business doing, he did FINALLY get one thing right.

Limit BANKS to banking, and limit how big they get, even then.

Does this make up for the PLETHORA of errors he made last year? Not even remotely. Then again, he did start his administration in difficult times, which may have required drastic measures. He does have one thing going for him. This is NOT an election year!

Well, one in a row does not a trend make. But, personally, I did LIKE this one, even if the market had a negative reaction to it. With roughly 21% of the stock market in banking/investment related activities, did you expect the market to applaude today? I did not expect that, but if anything GOOD comes from this, it may well have been the best money I have spent in MANY years! It was the first time I can recall taking a loss, and liking it. And, I hope that does not become a trend either, but the cause was JUST!

Well, to think that corporate America has any conscience or sense at all would be a misnomer. The wealth destruction of America has been going on for many years. At least the last 25 years or so, by my conservative calculations. And, it would be hard to deny that most of it has greed (not just profit) as it's motive. But what I find most disconcerting is that nobody sees this coming? But, I am getting the cart before the horse, so let me digress back some.

The first crime of the past 3 decades has been out-sourcing. It has several very real problems that everyone wanted to turn a blind eye to. The first of these is the transfer of wealth from the US to other countries. Yes, other countries want paid for the services they render, even if they do render them at a fraction of the costs of doing the same business in the US. So, money formerly kept in the US is now flowing out the door to other countries. This in turn will create a short term un-employment issue until the US worker are re-staffed back into other jobs and careers. So, there is an immediate negative impact to tax income to the government. But, you counter with the idea that the profits from these out-sourcings remain in America? Maybe, but for how long? Let's see. By the way, the two biggest groups out-sourced initially were data processing and call center (customer support). Hummm, one of those is some of our technological edge in business?

Well, right in the same neighborhood with out-sourcing is moving production centers of manufacturing overseas. Again, in the name of cheaper labor. Or is it called profit (or greed). Same concept going on though. Dollars once spent on US production are now spent on foreign production of the same goods once produced here. But, we can justify all of this in the name of "global expansion"?

The second crime of the past mostly two decades is absolute corrupt greed. Any way to take someone else's money and put it in your pocket. Cases in point here include Enron, Ponzi, and Maddoff. Yes, American education institutions are producing smarter criminals, might be one conclusion you could infer from that. What is new about these crimes is they are no longer about millions of dollars, but about BILLIONS of dollars.
And in some of this same group, I am going to include banking and the mortgage industry. Selling mortgages to those who clearly have no solvency, and rebundling and packaging these for resale at unreasonable prices. While this may have bordered on more legal than Enron, Ponzi, or Maddoff, it clearly has it's roots in greed, and common sense is out the window. Many of these banks self-destructed, again leaving a path much akin to the raping and pillaging of unsuspecting investors portfolios'. And, while we are on the subject of unabashed greed, let's by all means include short-selling. This group typically expects to profit, having little to nothing invested, while causing wealth destruction to those that do. Yes, short sellers fit in with the band of crooks. Here they shall reside in my book.

The third major crime of this century is government interference in the private sector. Add to that creating more agencies within the government to add to costs, and further hinder any progress in getting anything productive done. Not to mention printing money like it is going out of style. Bailouts of AIG, GM, Meryll Lynch, CitiGroup, Bank of America and others is mostly just horse puckey. Oh, it was to save the global financial system from collapse? Horse-puckey! The American system could and would go on without any one of or even without all of them (possibly even better). What it did do though was create a huge deficit in the government budget which will have to be repaid in tax dollars at some point. Yes, it will hit each American worker, but moreover it will hit each American business too. So, many of the wiser American companies are looking for the exit to avoid the inevitable tax burden they will unnecessarily face if they stay here. Yes, this creates an even bigger tax drain on those left behind, as it reduces tax revenues received, drops GDP, and transfers more wealth to other countries. (And, my personal opinion here, who better to orchestrate all of this? Why, Obama of coarse. He is head of the plan to turn the US into a socialism.). And if they don't want to leave because of tax issues, they will want to leave when executive pay and other daily business issues become under the scrutiny of the government. The message is loud and clear. If you are an American business, GET OUT of our country.

The fourth crime of the century is the destruction of the American individual investor by allowing the use of computerized trades on the stock market. Yes, this one is reserved for Goldman Sach's, JP Morgan's, Morgan Stanley's and a few of the others. This is on a par with the other greeds mentioned earlier, but just as immoral. You see, the stock market was designer to be for the INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR. Not corporations, not computers, but INDIVIDUALS.

Now, as I look back over some of this list, and if someone had told me to come up with a plan to destroy American wealth, I am not sure I could have come up with one a whole lot better than these.

1. Move technology overseas
2. Move production out of the country
3. Increase unemployment
4. Increase government interference
5. Add some crooks (yes, a few that are not already working in the government)
6. Destroy the individual investor

We don't seem to need other countries to undermine our economy. We seem to be doing just fine by ourself, thank you.

Mostly,my concerns stem from P/E values. They are, by most any standard, pretty high right now. Considering we are recovering from a questionable return from a serious market downturn, that is a BIG issue right now. I can find very , very few stocks, that are CHEAP. In fact, I could give cause for another round of blows, for those who did not learn in the last downturn.

Ok, a P/E is a hard thing to give a number to. It depends on the company, and the sector. A P/Eof 15 is HIGH, and should be considered so, for MOST stocks. Yet, the tech sector thinks a P/E of 30 is a low-grade stock. Some of those have P/E values well over 50. In my book, that is too over-priced.

P/E, price to earnings. Put another way, it is how long it will take your stock to pay back your initial investment,, in years. Now, when I look at tech stocks, I start to believe that high PE ratio. Face it, they are risky, and they are boom and bust industries. You have to have some, or you miss the boom, and you can't have much or you WILL bust.

So, let's just stick with the BASICS. Let's avoid some sectors, for now, with out of line P/E ratios. If we can not find stocks, that follow the RULES of investing, then let's ignore them,, for now.

Rules of P/E. Highly profitable companies will head to the north end of the 15 P/E. They will provide CONSISTENT returns, albeit, not always market beating ones. Stable, but more risky stocks, offer a payback in less time. Face it, if you buy a stock, you want it to pay for itself before you grow OLD. Beyond 8-15 years, you will change your mind and move on to greener pastures. As well, you should. Yes, 500% or more percentage returns are possible, in shorter time frames, but for the MOST part, that comes from years of investing, and getting it RIGHT, in a single stock. Neither of those is easy to do.

So, play some odds. Use good sense about it.

Ordinarily, I would recommend a diversified portfolio. But, I am SERIOUSLY beginning to wonder, if this is the time for that. OK, mergers, aquisitions on the rise, stocks up 35% from bottom, all signs the bull is out of the bag. Shorters are running scared. GOOD. Inflation is so likely, it is not funny. All positive signs for stocks. EXCEPT, P/E's are too high. And, I am willing to bet dollars to donuts that will have to come down. For a WHOLE LOT of them.

First, my late BLUNDERS. Two stocks, I should have been buying, and let it slip, until,,, ALMOST too late. And, to tell the truth, I am still deliberating, but I KNOW my conscience is WRONG on this. Both happen to be in the shipping industry. The problem right now, with this industry is OVER-SUPPLY? Too many ships, too little market. Just over one year ago, the market worked quite differently. Supply, could not meet demand. And, it paid a PREMIUM for newer ships. Now, if you listen to the media, there is little market for anything. The question is, can this sector "stay afloat"? Well, coming quickly to the chase, there are TWO in this sector, that stand out. DSX, Diana Shipping, and TBSI, TBS Industries. I missed DSX at $12.00 and change lately and I have been kicking myself ever since. They did cut the dividend, which used to be decent, at about 3+%. I want to believe they will go back to that at some point. With a 3% dividend, and stock price growth, they make a fine stock to own. Even so, at $12, I MISSED, the much of the growth potential for that stock to rise again to $16, $24, and higher. I believe it will, and it will return to dividends, but likely in the 1% range. It is still a good stock, and will explain BRIEFLY later.

Why invest in TBSI? Because less than 3 years ago, the stock appreciated 800%. Same industry as DSX. What happened? Well, we had a little thing called a GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS. Anybody with debt, was considered the worst sinner of all time. SHIPS, cost money to build and maintain.

Why I like shipping. Barriers to entry are substantial. Oceans get bigger, not smaller. Better players will get more market share.

WARNING, WARNING, DANGER Will Robinson. These are MARVELOUS day trades, but like me, you are likely to lose your shirt if you miss-judge even slightly. HIGHLY volitile. Not for the squeamish. But, good long term plays.

OK, what have I been doing right? DIVIDEND plays.Two stand out immediately, and a third is showing tons of promise. Well, my first theory in investing is do not LOSE money. I did ride the last downturn, to not lose market share. That may have been a poor move on my part, but it too had benefit. I did not have to decide after the fact, where to put money. I knew. Dividend plays.

So, I give you these two up front. TNH, Terra Nitrogen. Dividend over 8%. Not cheap stock, not big company. Concerns me the company is so small, but it is stout enough, to fend off some would be buyers. Sooner or later, the BIG bucks will win, but in the mean time, this is a stock, hard to over-look.

Second on my "buy' list is BP. It is a petroleum player, with a 6%+ dividend. It is hard to deny the sector will do good over time. It is not the biggest, and maybe not the best, in volume, but I like the management.

Third on my success list is BHP. I like the fact it is a commodities player right now, and one of the biggest. It is a producer of "all" natural resources. Pick one. Gold, they mine it. Silver, got that too. Iron ore, likely the biggest. Rubies, that too. Diamonds, no thumbs down there either.
Reasonable stock price, and a stock buy-back plan for years to come. To be aquired? Who are you kidding? This company will acquire others.

Those convictions I feel good about. If I had to put my whole portfolio, in the hands of those, I could sleep well at night.

Then I do have some, that resemble FLEAS. And these, keep me up.

Natural gas, SHOULD be thriving right now, but it is not. Some of that does not make me sleep well too.

The CEO of Chesapeake Energy should be FIRED. He is over-payed, and under-delivers. None the less, he owns (CEO), the largest natural gas producer in the world. A poorly owed and run company, but how do you ignore that in a time of "green is better"? This sorry SOB will still likely profit. But, when he does, can I?

MAYBE, but it is RISKY!

Bet on AXAS, Abraxas Energy. Pitifully, in debt. partners are consolidating LOSING companies to make a last stand. But, it is a negative P/E (rightfully so). If they can get their head out of their (ARSE?) the company could be profitable, or an acquistion target worth having?. Both make money for stockholders.

It has been tempting, to consolidate into a few that I KNOW will produce returns. And, before I leave this I mention TWO more. Diamond Offshore (DO) and Noble Energy(NE). Both offshore oil
drillers, but the other forgetten thing about investments is bet on MANAGEMENT. These are some of the best.

It is TEMPTING, for me to consolidate into just THESE, and I will bet dollars to donuts I beat the market SOUNDLY.

But, I know, you DO have to be diversified.

Bet on a bank?,,,,,,, I do love a good joke. It it right up there with the US CONGRESS. A hall filled with court jesters.

Then again, who says I am right? Two facts you should know BEFORE you judge me. Before the econmy collapsed, I was beating the market, by about 7-10%. Since it has collapsed, I have been beating it by 5-35%, depending on the day you check. 20% is a ballpark.

I did not fall off the hay-wagon just yesterday. Short term plan, find dividends, while they still exist. Growth will follow. Then , be patient, and re-invest.

Well, some of those are dividend stocks. Yes, I had them marked for re-investment. As dividends were paid, I was paid in stock, less foreign exchange fees, and many had those. Ok, the foreign exchange made money,, lol. Technically, so did I. My numbers on "Gains" may be negative, but those "negative" numbers, are less than the values of the stocks that were bought with the dividends. So, my numbers there are a nice shade of pink? Not nearly as red as they would have me believe. And, I have more of what I bought initially, without spending a penny more out of my pocket. Yes, the re-investmnet is noted as expense on my statement. Is it really. Techically, yes. I bought, and it dropped. Technically, no, I did not buy, I was GIVEN, and reinvested that.

Then there is the other factor. When I started investing, I had limited resources. I could not afford to diversify, even if I wanted to. Enter the stock split. Ok, no, I did not gain a dime on stock splits, and you don't. But, in many cases, I was able to maintain, or increase my original investment amount, take some off the table, and invest elsewhere. Yes, this is the KEY to diversification. And, BELIEVE ME, you need some. If your stock is so good, you can always invest more in it later, as you have funds become available. Your stock price, just dropped, so take a little off, and sock some for a rebuy later. With the rest, invest in divesting. Buy more of things you have less of, or that the market thinks is HOT,, right now.

And what IS the market doing right now? Based on what I see, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

So, what should YOU be doing?

ADDING SHARES. Of just about anything. Profitable stocks would be nice, but how long before most of them become MORE profitable than they are now? Well, I will tell you. In the short run, you could lose money on just about ANY of them. If you require returns in a day, a week, or a month, you are wasting your time,,, and mine. I would bet against it. Then again, if you are in for the long term, I have to bet with you. In terms of three years or longer.

In the longer term, the one with more shares, will be the winner. Assuming (the least favorite word in my vocabulary), you have the slightest notion of how to pick a stock, and have ANY luck at all (other than bad luck).

So, quick and brief. It does not matter if you are new to investing or not. Do with what you have.

Make a portfoilio of some dividend stocks. Be willing to ride them for a time. Let them grow, and THEN, at the right time (what have I gotten myself into?) sell for a PROFIT, the growth from the dividends, so you can diversify. Add to that portfolio some stocks with traditions of prior stock splits. Yes, darn it, homework is required. So, is a little luck. It is nearly IMPOSSIBLE to pick a stock based on the fact it will likely split. So, pick good companies, and HOPE they split, when gains are WONDERFUL.

Another way to win, is pick companies you KNOW should be acquistion targets. Hard to figure who they are? Everyone wants a bigger piece of the pie. Who is mostly likely to be today's pie?
Can they be bought out. Many can't. Who is the biggest pie eater right now? You can play both sides of that coin.

But, I can only think of ONE real way to lose in a market doing ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. That is for YOU, to do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

Ok, you say the market is up some 25% off of it's bottom of last year. Correct. You say it could and likely will drop. Correct. As sure as God make raindrops (or they come from someplace for you agnostics), the market WILL go up in time. It has to, or it has to cease to exist. Nobody will continue to be a fool long enough for the market to wither and die. It is more guaranteed than the government bonds. The governement is backed by fools and idiots, that are by any other means, court jesters at best. Businesses on the other hand, have a profit incentive.
And, while your "government" may be willing to lose (SQUANDER) MULTI-TRILLIONS, I can assure you, any succesful business venture would not stand for it. Even an unsuccessful one has better sense. (the beatings will continue until Morale improves?)

So, I do believe in the market. I do not believe in the American government. Or, it is what I believe in them to do (mess up a free lunch).

Be that as it may, I know what to do in these times, and YOU should too. ADD SHARES of stocks,,, like a madman. Then pray, and dream of a time when the DOW exceeds 16,000.

And, if we do not get hit by a comet, or have any other global disaster, it WILL. I GUARANTEE it.

First, everyone wants to know the graphic that the recovery will have. Hockey stick, "V", 'U", "W. Well, I have to describe it for you. To do that, you have to envision the trip down as something like falling off of a cliff. It was a dramatic fall, and let's say, the parchute failed to open, until very late. By some miracle, before you perished, the shoot did open, and you caught an immediate updraught. It did not take you to near the height you were, but you recovered enough to know, you need to clean your drawers. To this point, we can call it a somewhat "v" shaped recovery, but it has in fact, not recovered. And, it will not, for some time yet. But, if riding air draughts is your thing, you might understands some of the rest of this too.
While we toil between the thrill of the ride, and the need for clean drawers, and counting our blessings for still being alive, we ride to a shortened upside of the "V" recovery (about present time), and take a dip in a "U" shaped fashion. Well, since we had a great fall already, the left side of this "U" is not as great as the right side will be. And, the bottom of the "U" would last maybe 6-9 months. So, by mid-2010, we may be about where we are right now. I can clearly see the DOW to once again flirt with 9200, or lower, and I can see a Dow of 10,000 being surpassed in just over a year. Actually, expect a Dow of 11,500 or better by 2nd quarter 2011.

Ok, it get's fuzzy from here. So far, is pure REASONING. It dropped too far too quick. It recovered too quick, and adjusted. It has not accounted for one thing. TIME. In time, cost go up.
Make that stock prices go up. And to this end, I expect to see a fairly steep rise in the right side of the "U" that followed the small 'v''. By the end of 2011, I expect to see gold at near $1100 an ounce. It will be in range with the other stock price rises, and maybe even slightly less, on a percentage basis. By the end of 2011, I expect to see $90 barrel oil, consistently.

My questions come from the end of 2011 to early 2012. So let me make a definition here. A recession, is a time of hardship, for BANKS. Nothing more, nothing less. Granted, struggling economies can put tight reins on banks. I do see dips on banks throughout 2010 and 2011.
But there is a new concern by 2012. Banks are simply too far over-valued. And I see that sector getting SLAMMED. But, unlike other recessions, caused by banks, this one is different. The market as a whole, goes forward. And, by mid 2012, the Dow is tettering near 12,000. As it shakes off the damage banks try to do, by second quarter 2013, the Dow is pushing 13,500.

To do this takes some great awakening. Somewhere, somehow, people have to "wake up". Enough to realize, that if you let computers rule your life, they will. Goldman's, JP Morgan's, B of A's, Merrill's, they all have "TOYS", to ruin your world,,, forever. Hopefully, by then, people will realize, we can live without those "programs" quite adequately.

Yes, there is some financial pain in the mean time. When, and if we get past that, there is a growth side to push Dow to over 14000, by the end of 2013, with more upside potential beyond that. Dow of 16,000 not out of the question by 2015,,, if you do something to STOP the computers from ruling your world.

A computer is a tool. Nothing more. Take a serious look at a movie called "War Games", and then apply that to the market. Global Nuclear Financial War? No, thank you. How about a nice game of Chess?

I will not be easy, but we can get there. We have to put reins on some of the top players, and the market can soar.

Despite history, it continues to ignore the facts.

Wall Street, and the stock market, was designed for the INDIVUAL INVESTOR.

It had NO INTENTION, of allowing short selling, or trades by the nanosecond by IDIOTS at the helm of large companies with NO CONSCIENCE.

And, the SEC is a JOKE, Well, so are the rest of the court jesters (congress), and Uncle FUNNY (O'bama, the Treasury, et al).

It CAN NOT be fixed in it's present state. It should be DESTROYED, like the PLAGUE it has become.

But, NO, I am not going to recommend that at this time. Too many businesses and jobs depend on it, or I would.

But, there IS a solution, for INVESTORS, if someone will just DO IT.

And, it is SIMPLE in concept.

Set up,,,,,, "YOUR STREET",, a mirror of Wall Street, in the beginning. How many companies would LOVE to ditch Wall Street? They would join in droves.

Rules. You must have them.

1. NO short selling,, EVER.

2. Maximium investment in one year is $10,000. Maximum in 5 years is $35,000.

It is just about that simple. but, I will add TWO more rules.

3. NO FUNDS,, of any kind.. EVER.

4. ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY, no computerized trades. Trades are allowed by a single investor, on a single stock, for a MAXIMUM of 5 times in one year. Ok, sorry day traders, I had to do this. It it not to hurt you, but to keep the McNasties out.

Ok, NOW the market has a way to PRICE stocks.

Companies will FLOCK to it, and Wall Street will DIE, as it should.

The market, in time will restore itself.

Or, just sign you life savings away to some computer. As a computer programmer by trade,

I GUARANTEE YOU.

It WILL take it, and not feel a thing. And the people doing it don't either.

Think you can join them and get part of that profit?

Sorry, that is not in the program, and it will not be.

Before I make it EASY for you, let's quickly dismiss those who need read no further. I have known people to invest until the day they died. That is probably a little excessive. Investments are for gains, usually to be recieved over time. If day trading is your thing, and you can afford the losses you may incur, well, have fun. It is a HIGHLY risky strategy that I DO NOT recommend, for MOST people. If you are already rich, and like to play in the market, have fun, just don't ruin it for the rest of us (largely by short selling, but if you have that kind of volume you can be a terror to a single stock). If you are already rich, take your toys, and play elsewhere. The safety of CD's, treasury's, muncipal bonds, etc will still allow your millions to grow.

The second group to dismiss is the TRULY economically distressed. If you live at poverty level, you need food and shelter, not a stock. A stock certificate is at best a not very tasty meal, and can be a very expensive one. Living under one is not going to be very rewarding either.

So, I am adressing the other 85% of the population now. We have removed the poor and the rich (hopefully). And, even this group is still widely diversified.

To get started, is maybe the hardest thing to do, and the most important thing that you do.
Typically, you have little to start with. That makes it doubly tough. Lots of choices, and most of them cost more than you have to make it worth while (at least for the better ones) So, the first lesson, is the cost of a trade. The price you pay for a stock is not the stock price times number of shares. It is stock price time the number of shares PLUS the brokerage fee for the transaction.

OK, my FIRST recommendation. If you have little to invest and know little to nothing about picking stocks, get into a fund, and NOT individual stocks. While you are in this fund, learn EVERYTHING you can about a FEW individual stocks you may be interested in. I do not address picking funds, but MSN has many decent writers on the subject, Fidelity Investments offers many good funds, and they are not that hard to find. Most come pre-rated for you. But, funds DO have problems. Pick a no-load fund if possible, and one that agrees with your values in life (I am agressive or conservative, I believe in "green" (ecology), or your belief in world economics (ie, China will do better or worse than the rest of the world).

Then, wait and watch. See how much your fund is costing you? Over time it will cost you even more. But did it cost much to learn this? Not really. But, the longer it goes on, the more it will cost you. Oh, you may be making a profit (hopefully, but not guaranteed), but you could make more FASTER, by doing it yourself.

My SECOND recomendation, should not be considered until you have applied the excercise of my first recommendation. That is, you have learned SOMETHING, about a few stocks. Ok, I am going to tell you UP FRONT, you just paid too much attention to media HYPE. Virtually everyone does. But, it is still time to close out your fund, and enter the stock market, as an investor. Picking stocks is about LONG TERM investments. I dismissed day-traders in my first oaragraph or so.

My THIRD recomendation, is pick well. You will have winners and losers. Everyone does. Do not be discouraged by losers. Learn from them. In the end, if you picked all winners, you are lucky, but learned little. Most of you will learn, and in the end, that may well far exceed the results of one who never picked a loser.

My FOURTH recommendation. Diversify. If you start with as little as 5-10 K, don't put all eggs in one basket. You may not need many, but you need a few. Watch out for your eyes bigger than your wallet. Yes, your best investment may be that $150 stock, on 20 shares, or it could be 500 shares of a $2 stock. Risk/reward. A lot of risk in that $2 stock, almost none in that $150 stock. Maybe, some of each, in a little less quantity? Keep in mind that trading cost I mentioned earlier. And, now, you are a BUY AND HOLD investor. Until you hit about 25K, you don't have much choice about that.

My FIFTH recomendation deals with VOLITILTY and DIVIDENDS. Gains in the market are a percentage game. I cannot tell you which is better. A highly volatile stock may have swings of 10 or more percent in a single day. A decent dividend stock may give a dividend of 6% or more in a year. Both could go up or down in stock price in a given year. I can say, the trend in the PAST has been the dividend will pay off better in the long run. What the future holds, is almost anyone's guess (but I do NOT put my faith in Obama's insight, or lack thereof).It is about getting the highest perecentage return on your money (and you now control that).

My SIXTH recomendation, is let your money work for YOU. In time, two things should happen.
Some of your stocks will split. No, don't jump for joy here, because you did not make a dime yet. But, it does offer you an opportunity (I sugeest you take it), and sell some stocks to get into others (see rule 4 - Diversify). The second thing is you should see some share price appreciation. When you see enough growth in share price appreciation to buy15 additional shares from profit from shares , the trigger is set. Consider trade costs again, but 1/2 of those gains should go to additional shares of that company, or another investment (yes, that diversification thing again).

Notice how in all of this I never mentioned a single stock by name? It is a formula, and it works.
You will be beating any index or fund on the planet, if you just keep working at it. There is just ONE more thing to mention, and this downturn, does make it well worth mentioning. There is a time to buy and hold, and there is a time to sell.

I, and you will make mistakes. I did not sell through the last downturn (before it). Had I done so, and had I had a GREAT crystal ball, I would have about 5 times what I do now. Trust me, most of you will not have a crystal ball that works either. Is all lost? No, I applied the rules. Shares will increase in value, and dividends will hold me through tough times.

I will beat the market,, SOUNDLY. Not every year, but most of them.

I wish I could give you one more piece of advice, but I would be wasting my breathe. Petition against computerized trade (a well written program will create a monopoly for the owner only, and anyone that has one, is and will be violating social laws, if not SEC laws) There is no good OWNER of such an animal. Petetion against short selling, allowing for certain commodities that need to. Petition against funds (yes, how you got started), because they RAPE investors over the long term. Or, maybe, just get fees, so they are not percentage based, and reasonable? And yes, funds get too much volume, so they truly CAN influence stock prices.

So, your friends are your enemies. That is the REAL rule of investments. And, let's suppose you do win at stocks over time. You will need to go back and look at FUNDS, because they are more secure? ( I gagged about then, but OK) It is part of a BALANCED portfolio, and part of diversification.

It is a process. You may not need every step. You will need some of them.

Good Luck.

My answer on the media, is they are just there for paid hype. They have a job, and that is about the only POSITIVE I see there. They do that fairly poorly, too. But, before I sound too negative, some of the media stocks have been rebounding, of late. Still, a sector I would avoid like a plague.

So, do not listen to the news. Make your own opinions.

If I turn on the boob tube, even some of the educational channels would have you believe, the world will quite possibly come to a near end,, on DEC 21, 2012. How many times, have we heard predictions, that the world will end,, and not had it come true. Most recently, for the year 2000. And that was not even a small blip on the radar. Yet, we have people who BELIEVE, that NOSTRODAMUS, who lived centuries ago, is "the God of the future". Maybe,, but I am more
inclined to believe in geological history, than some soothsayer, from several centuries ago.

So, if you want something to worry about, I am going to give you quite a list. And, if you believe there will be life hereafter, I may give some proof of that too.

Things to WORRY about. Tops on my list, is a planetary collision, or a SEVERE volcanic eruption. Neither of those is likely, and both are possible. My guess is if either does happen, how much money you have, or don't will not matter one iota. Bend over, and kiss your cookies good-bye. But, let's assume for a minute, it is not THAT bad. My next list of worries is FUNDS, and the GOVERNMENT. Those are the most DANGEROUS things to your finacial health. Not, the stock market. Ok, I call a SPADE, a spade, (in a deck of cards). The government, is your WORST enemy, if you live in the US. Only a COMPLETE IDIOT, would bailout HUGE companies for making BLUNDERS, beyond belief. I can think of health care reforms, and economic stimulus packages, that would have TRUE benefit, that would not have SOAKED the taxpayer, the way OBAMA plans to. PEOPLE, get this STRAIGHT. OBAMA, is SOCIALIST.
Socialism DOES NOT WORK. That said, I will quickly move to the OTHER worry, which is FUNDS. Much like the government, they don't work. Big enough to solve a problem, but far more likely to cause one. It does not take a genius to see the fraud related to this. Pick a Ponzi, Maddoff, or others. But, that is the LEAST of the problem. Fees, mis-management, and greed, will rob you faster than most want to admit.

So, how do you get ANY sleep at night? Well, you need some faith in the future. And let me REMIND you of some other facts. Just a little over a year ago, the DOW, was over 14000. It is barely over half that now. Think it might get back there in time? Dollars to donuts it will. Ok, to hear the MEDIA, it will take a long time. And, based on the number of CROOKS, it may take longer. And, based on the INCOMPETENCE, of the government, you can bet, it will be a slow recovery. But, recovery, is in the cards, despite all of this.

To have a market recovery, you need to do a few simple things. ONE, is stop ALL short selling.
If you own stocks, and don't want them, sell them. NOBODY will stop that. TWO, abolish FUNDS. This WILL hurt, and I promise that. Too many refuse to accept responsibilty for their future, and this was a plan (LOOPHOLE) to help them. It only created a nightmare, to make the rich richer, and to RAPE, the rest of stockholders, not to mention open the door for GIGANTIC FRAUD.

Historically, INDIVIDUAL stockholders do a GREAT job, of determining market value. We do not NEED, a ton of Wall Street analyst.

Ok, we could maybe do with A LOT more unemployed. Start with the MEDIA, and get the GOVERNMENT in the act as soon as possible. Swing and SLASH the ax, and let heads ROLL.
And, pick your favorite market ANALYST, and include them in the list

Now, before I go on, I will add one more thing, and it too, is a positive. No matter how BLUNDERING, Obama and his ideas are (and they are REALLY out there), he has done ONE THING, I have not seen done, in MANY, MANY moons. He has actually put CONGRESS to work. Something they have not done in years. Does that restore my faith, in Uncle Funny (formerly Uncle Sam), or Congress (the court jesters). Not in the least. I COUNT on them. To make a MESS of anything they touch. But, it is good to see them work, no matter how POORLY, they do the job.

But, I do believe in TIME, and COMPANIES, and PROFIT. All indications say this is NEAR a bottom, if not an actual bottom.

A few indications say there will be life ten years from now. If there is a future, this might be a GOOD time to plan for it. If there is NOT to be a future, will it matter anyway?

And, there is this too. You can't fight the government,, and win. Right now, the government,, favors banks. Yes, you might make a TON of short term money there. I still bet against them both.

In short,, I believe in PEOPLE. I believe we have more good ones, than bad ones. I believe bad, will be VERY BAD. We could stop a lot of that. Unfortunately, we might need the GOVERNMENT to help with that. From there, God help us ALL!

I think, there will be a tomarrow, and a next day, and a next year, and years to come. I may not see all of that, but I BELIEVE in it. And, if you do, and you do not INVEST, for the future, Then ,, the FUTURE,, should happen to YOU.

My short here, is a hold, if you are already invested. And, jumping straight to the chase, my HOLD is Harley-Davidson (HOG). Great company, good management, great stock. Just WRONG time to buy. Even in the midst of EVERY economic indicator that says to.

OIL, is beginning to regain it's ground in pump price. Ordinarily, it would be good for a HOG too, but not this time. The brand name,, just costs too much. Even the status symbol, will have to come down in price. But, the financing is there, and if you prefer a loud noise to a good BIKE, and you want to drink with "the good ol' boys", well Harley is not all bad. I do prefer a HONDA, but that is MY taste. In fact, I have NEVER owned a Harley, but I do believe in the stock. I have owned bikes by three OTHER manufacturers, and by my guess, all three have outperformed a Harley. The cost is just too high, for the PERCIEVED value, and status. And, it will hurt the stock price,, this year.

OK, that is my short. Not a short mind you, a stock HOLD, if you own it. I would not buy it right now.

Oil, is almost a no-brainer right now. I would invest almost anywhere, Yes, I do believe we may be entering a short term top on oil prices, so do be careful. You could see a retrenchment or a surge up. Either way, the long term prospect for oil, is only up. This is a buy and hold DREAM for most investors. And, better yet, as pump prices rise, and the rest of the economy CRIES BIG TEARS,, yes, you still pay at the pump, but,,, you also laugh all the way to the bank. Stock price gains SHOULD exceed pump price gains. Nothing is EVER guaranteed, but over time, it should (especially, if you pick one with a DECENT dividend, and there are many). OIL, is not you thing? What about a driller, or a services provider. DO (Diamond Offshore), is definitely a rebounder SLB (Schlumberger) and RIG (Transaocean), both rebounding nicely.
Yes, there is a market top, and buying now has risks. Much less if you are a LONG term investor. Buy, and HOLD. Even the downtrodden, will rebound. Service prividers, SII (Smith-International) and WFT (Weatherford) will make some rebound. Ok, I lost a bundle here before, but they were the top, in the market, and that day will return. Or, so I beieve. But, I have been wrong before, and may be again, but I doubt it.

On to the riskier stocks. I am VIOLENTLY opposed to bank stocks right now. And this one is more close to a bank than I like to think, but GE deserves a look. Oh, for the days, when GE just did what it does, but it had to diverify into EVERYTHING, and has too much exposure to the media, and banking. Still I do believe in it's CORE businesses, of electrical appliances, wind power, aircraft engines. GE has always had reliable returns. The problem with GE is it SELDOM has market BEATING returns. That might change this year. Either way, the value of the assets is just too great. Anything, ANYTHING, they spin off, is likely to make you more than the stock price today.

For a LONG term investor, I would be fooish to neglect my favorites. I believe in BHP (BHP Billiton). He who controls resources, controls the world. They are too diverisfied, to be a BIG loser. That transforms into long term profit, for you and me.

No, I did NOT fall off of the haywagon just yesterday. Gold and silver, must also make so AMAZING comebacks. Our FOOLISH government spending is bound to cause inflation. Pick a miner, or funds specializing in them. Do watch out for hight debt, as lower debt will increase performance on your stock pick.

Tech's look good. Be very careful. First to rebound, may be the first bubble burst. It has happened before.

Agriculture looks good. DE (John-Deere), a good, well managed company. POT, an oligopoly, by most any other name, MOS (Mosaic) a chemical contender, TNH (Terra Nitrogen), a good play, well run, and one of the best dividends in ANY sector.

Stocks to avoid at all cost? ANYTHING, and I do mean ANYTHING, related to the US GOVERNMENT. Money, insurance, real estate, you name it. They could not manage their way out of a wet paper bag in a desert, if they were carrying a full water bottle, and had directions to a town two miles away.

Far be it from me, to say I got them all right. But, I do have some insights. And, yes, many of those are opinionated. Imagine that from me,, the confirmed non-believer in Uncle Funny (formerly Uncle Sam), and congress (the court jesters).

Well, let me say this. I don't think Uncle Funny and the court jesters had a plan to turn around the economy, but their LACK of a plan may have done something positive.

It does not matter how poorly planned the plan, if it is percieved to be beneficial. Or even, for that matter if the plan has any merit at all. It matters, that action was taken. Mostly, the wrong ones mind you, but they were actions.

And, despite HUGE losses for most people, in their portfolios, I do believe, in a life, after. That is a statement about stocks, and ONLY about stocks.

Yes, I rode down the market crash. Some will call me incredibly stupid, and I would find that hard to disagree with. I have paid DEARLY for that. Then again, I am also part of it's rebound.

All stocks do not drop at the same time, and all do not recover at the same rate. I look at MONTHS ago, and my stocks on the top of the heap, are now the bottom. And many of those I would have NEVER invested in, are the ones recovering first. But, investing is about TWO concepts. A belief in the company, and especially, the management of the company,,, and TIME. The rest will take care of itself.

To some degree, I am an optimist. No matter what price you buy in at, in time, the market, and your stock value, will go higher. Just last year, the DOW topped 14,000. At some point, it will surpass that number. Yes, I do believe that. It may take a while, but it is just about as sure as raindrops.

And, NO, I do NOT approve of shorting strategies. Very few shortist, ever get enough right, to make the strategy worth while. So, over the long term, my bet, is TIME will make you a winner.
With the DOW at 8750, and undeniably a tough buy point, because a market correction is inevitable (to the lower), It makes less than NO sense to me, to NOT be a BUYER. No, you are not buying at the bottom. Since when, did most investors EVER do that.

OK, there is merit to the day trade right now. Too many stocks are having BIG swings, on a day to day basis. I too have tenencies, for day trading. Call it the GAMBLER in me, but even I know, it is gambling. In the LONG term, day traders lose too.

So, what is an investor to do. Number ONE one the list, is become active. Monitor stocks, and your portfolio. Look at what it costs, to be in FUNDS, and also look at the non-producive (usually) use of YOUR money. Uninvested money, is non-productive use. Everyone BELIEVES in SOMETHING. Up, down, stocks, bonds, treasuries, foriegn curriencies, gold, copper, pig bellies, pets, oil, or a ruby for grandma's belly button. They all go up, and down, and not at the same rate.

This is my last statement. Ok, most of us got raped. It did not feel good. But, we can go on.
Life may only be half of what it can be. But, it can be, and chances are darned good it will be,, at some point,, much better.

Despite Uncle Funny, and the court jesters. Not because of them.

I wish I could give you good investment choices right now. I REFUSE to invest in banks, but they may be your best return.

But, for those of you so inclined, despite what seems TODAY to be a market top, in a stock, or even sector,, I bet it is not.

So, I remain,, fully invested, and I will beat the market. If I had more funds, I would be a buyer,, yes, even at this undeniable top,, because it will seem a pittance later.

We learned to play MONOPOLY.

Problem is, it is played with PLAY money.

And, OBVIOUSLY, Obama (and the collective governent organizations, like the Fed, the Treasury, etc, hereafter referred to as Uncle Funny) and congress (hereafter referred to as the Court Jesters), learned to play it too.

Suppose, I was to offer you $.65 for every dollar you have. You held out, like every good Monopoly player, for a better deal.

My next offer, is $.35, and while you don't understand it, it is an EXTREMELY lucatrative deal,, FOR YOU.

And while you do not accept, my next offer is $.16, and I am still offereing to make you a bundle.

How does all of this work? Simple.

I offerred for the dollar, when it was worth SOMETHING. Not much, but something. It devalued, and I made another offer. You could have made money on this on any offer made.

There is another player. In this case, the other player, is Uncle Funny (and the Court Jesters). They are printing play money like it is going out of style. And, for a while, it works.

Then all of the sudden, Baltic, startes to look good. Yes, it is a CHEAP property. But, Uncle Funny, has NO propoerty, and a rediculous amount of money. And, the board is SOLD.

And EVERY property owner has a money printing press. No, it is NOT Monopoly, as WE learned it. That was a game.

Like this Monopoly game, There is now NO basis for the value of a dollar.

This is NOT a Monopoly game. This is REAL LIFE. But Uncle Funny, and the Court Jesters, are playing a game they can not win.

Money, based on NOTHING, makes it worthless. Any property you land on becomes an expense.

Our dollar is worth maybe, and I am being generous,,, maybe $06.

Gee, thanks,

Let's all take our hat off,

and bow,

to Uncle Funny, and the Court Jesters.

Unlike our givernment, heretofor referred to as UNCLE FUNNY (the president, the Fed, and the Treasury), and the COURT JESTERS (Congress), I do learn.

Yes, the government should be SUED. Yes, every CLOWN, should be paying for this,,,, not the American taxpayer.

So, I have one question. How many of you wanted to see, AIG, Bank of America, Lehnann Bothers, Bearn Stearns, CitiGroup, Wells Fargo, Wachovia, Merril Lynch, or Countrywide, to succeed?

I assume some of you. There are IDIOTS in every crowd. They REAPED, in good times, and you THINK, you still deserve. So, do they.

You raped, and pillaged, the public.

And, UNCLE FUNNY, and the COURT JESTERS, say Ok. Not only do they say OK, but in the
midst of all of this that will make generations later, much poorer, you have no guilt.

Witness, CitGroup buying a jet, and a 10 M imptrovement, in CEO office space. The government, subsidizing, the B of A Acquistiions of Countrywide and Merrill Lynch, the Bonuses, at aig, AFTER THE GOVERNMENT BAILOUT.

OK, UNCLE STUPID, has no business in the private sector. It costs us BILLIONS every day.

Just a TODAY, example. UNCLE FUNNY, wants to "guarantee" potentially bad debt (ie, short term debt)

If you do not see abuse here, I can't help you.

It is abuse of power, it is misuse of fund, and it is NEGLECT,

And, yes, time to SUE the government, or at LEAST, remove the IDIOTS.

Yes, it is nice to go see a "Circus",,, BUT HOW MANY TAX PAYERS,

ARE TIRED

OF THE CLOWNS?

Yes, the market pop today was nice. It had NOTHING to do with ANYTHING , done (and they have done NOTHING), by the COURT JESTERS, and UNCLE FUNNY.

And, if you think this is a joke,

well,
even I can not compete, with UNCLE FUNNY and the COURT JESTERS.

And, I could, and WOULD go on.

You got raped, and you said OK.

Don't be surprised next time.

And worse yet, UNCLE FUNNY, says, if you don't invest in banks, you lose in this market?

UNCLE FUNNY, plant it,,,,,, where the sun does not shine.

Yes, I made money today,, or did I? Ok, I did?.

How about some perspective on that.

Well, I could start with this easily. When I was last at the Dow at 7700, I had more. That is not the point this time. That could just be investing. But, then think if you will. I HAVE, and HAVE HAD, market beating results. Ok, when it went down, I rode that too, and got beaten down, worse than others in most cases. So, call me "average Joe", as I am not alone there. This is a free "game" to play here. Real money, is not. Real investments, are not. Real people are not.

So, I am going to tell you TWO things I think SHOULD happen. One, is REAL hard to do, but should be done. The other just makes a whole lot of sense.

Since it is shorter, and easy to mention the one that makes sense, I will do that first. It is simple too. Invest in gold, raw materials, and agriculture. Gold, is a no brainer. Inflation will result, from all of the "government" actions (I had a gag moment, as I had to refrain from refering to them as they SHOULD be, but I am coming to that) . Raw materials, because if there is a recovery, NOTHING will get better, without them. And agriculture, because everyone will eat.
Cows, dogs, and people. Cows, because we eat them, dogs, because people like them, and people, because they are greedy and STUPID.

So, if you do not want to hear my RANT, on the "Government", I am quickly going to give some stocks, and then I am going to rip the "government" a new set of shorts, and I do NOT mean stocks.

Gold, check out AUY, GG, KGC, AEM, FCX, and EGO, and add some silver here too. I am not a silver expert, but research can help you. HL, I like, but debt is high. There are better, no doubt. Do not be afraid of some risk in silver, as it may well EXCEED gold in returns, in both short and long term.. Raw materials, check out BHP, RTP, RIO, and again, I would look to some lumber, but I am not an expert here either. I could suggest, but, rather than be wrong, I just mention, do your homework. And, last but not least, I recommend agriculture. POT, is a no brainer. It is an oligopoly, and is NEARLY unregulated. If banks can, POT can BETTER.
But, invest in it's competition too, MOS in case the "government" gets a brain (but don't count on that one.). DE and MON look good here. Well run companies, that have been "beaten", by the market. They will come back, IF, the clowns in the governemt don't interefere with EVERYTHING. Still, TNH, is the best of all. It does a good reliable dividend, and offers stock price appreciation too. But, it will not take that long, so, as the world grows hungrier, expect the government "circus" back into the action here. Short term, ok, Long term, wait to see what the "court jesters" do. There may be ONE safe side bet. Retail is likely to get hammered throughout al of this, but one company may actually profit. My bet is PETM, yes, PetSmart.
Low debt, and a company that most anyone can love. Yes, the pet market, and people love their pets. Pets will eat, when many people may not. Yes, you too have heard the stories. People eat pet food, when real food is not available. Yuk, may I never go there. But, it is a market, and it looks pretty good. Do it sparingly, but do it.

Ok, I have SPARED, most of you, but part two, is going to rip the GOVERNMENT a new one. If you want to hear about UNCLE FUNNY, and the COURT JESTERS, part two, will be just for you.

But, before I do that, I must say one more thing. The investments I mentioned so far, are longer term. Expect them for two years or more. In the short term, Oil, is the way to go, if you have a concience. If you have NO conscience, invest in banks or other financial institutions, but I will not recommend even ONE, as I DO have a conscience. Oil, is going to rise for about the next 4-6 months, at a minimum. It is seasonal, and it is their "season". So many to mention. XOM, CVX, COP, DO, RIG, NE, PDE, ATW, AXAS, CHK, DVN,SLB, HAL, and so very many more. Short term, you make money one most any. Some do a fair dividend, which makes them worth keeping.

Warning!

Beware of the MEDIA BS.

And, be VERY AFRAID, of UNCLE FUNNY, and the COURT JESTERS (see part 2)