MoneyMiser Picks

Time to get in the game

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Well, an ice storm delayed me from getting into the game on its opening date. 14 hour day at work because of it. Still, the MS offer for Yahoo! helped get my blood pumping early this morning while watching CNBC (which is the really only good thing on in the mornings anymore besides SportsCenter reruns)..

But then an interesting thing happened to end the day with MS, it closed below its support level of $32 by nearly a buck and a half. Now the traders on Fast Money have been harping to buy MS on the dips around and at $32. This looks like a better than hoped for entry point. I'd estimate that MS will rebound once the deal naysayers go away, to at least $35 per share by the end of March, if not sooner.

Can't talk about MS without mentioning Google. Man they got slaughtered today. I mean this is GOOGLE we're talking about here. Just as super high confidence rode their stock price WAYYYYY up, so will the shaking of that confidence in this fickle market help it fall. Around $513-515 has been support for Google lately. I think the value traders will note this, and let the weekend sort out the hype from the MS Yahoo offer. I'll be the option markets are already buzzing with $550 calls for March being snapped up. Google is almost a steal at $515, and should deliver about a 15% ROI trading range for the next month or so.

Another tech pick that's been beaten down, EMC. Sure the VMWare earnings hurt a bit, but EMCs overall outlook for fiscal 2008 looks promising. I think EMC fell slightly out of its recent $16-19 trading range this past week due to the market's fickle nature as of late. EMC looks to be a strong performer for 2008. We may not get back to $24 like we saw near the end of 2007, but $19.50-21.00 should not be too far out of reach. At current prices, the low end would be a ROI of 20%+.

I'm not going to chase Buffet's or Ichan's plays. They've already been exploited before the game began. Perhaps on a dip the railroads may beocme interesting, but I don't think they'll lose much of their current gains until maybe the end of Summer. Motorola looks like a trap waiting to be sprung on anyone who gets in here. Selling off the handset division is a poor move imho. Why would you chop off a healthy limb to keep diseased ones? I'd rather buy Samsung and deal with their bribery investigation, than play with a poorly run former cell phone giant.

Anyone else think this best week for the S&P 500 in nearly 5 years is done with? I think the next freefall begins in the next 2 weeks. How far we plunge is anyones guess. But there's too much exhuberance over this brief run-up. I'm really tempted to put the max 25% in the inverse S&P 500 ETF, but it's really difficult to argue agains the double inverse power of DOG in the dow. Perhaps I'll split it up, I haven't made up my mind on that one yet.

Man, the 10 stocks with less than 10% looks tougher than I thought. I hoped to get in on GE, and some other more stable dividend stocks at a relatively cheap level. But I may have to rethink that strategy, given current prices.

I tend to agree with Jim Jubak's thought process about accumulating cash right now. It feels like the calm before the storm. And when the storm hits, buying opportunited will emerge. So what does one do in the meantime, other than being forced to lose money due to the rules of the game? The inverse ETFs only let you recoup some of that. I had hoped Pfizer might be a safer defensive play, but with the FDA putting out the alert on Pfizer's anti-smoking drug, I'm not sure what damage that will have.

Well, I'll hit the books and web this weekend before the big game. I think the score will be closer than the so-called experts believe.

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Expected a pounding

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But not this much of one. Man that ISM data really sucked the air out of the market.

The technicals screamed of a triple digit down day following Monday, but I did expect the floor to be ripped out.

If this were a longer term game, I would snap up every share of Intel, Microsoft, EMC, NYX (NYSE), CSCO, Tesoro, and a few others that I could. These names are extremely undervalued right now imho. In 12 months to 3 years from now, investors who got in and held at theses levels will most likely be smiling like Warren Buffet after a cherry coke and a cheeseburger.

Speaking of food, so far my only good move has been NutriSystem. I learned my lesson with them after last year in the CNBC million dollar portfolio challenge. NTRI spikes after the Super Bowl. But they are volatile. I'm not sure how high I should set my price target, because I do fear a sell-off of what's done well if an extended downward trend becomes reality. I hope for 15%+, but I am wary of my double digit gains estimate.

Back to my losers, I'm doubling down on Microsoft, EMC, Tesoro, CSCO, AAPL, MOS, and adding NYX. Why you ask? Well everyone saw Juniper's numbers, and Cisco is easily the #1 in that sector. They should file a good report Wednesday after the closing bell. And they should take the NASDAQ higher with them. I'm not certain if it's a really short-term rally, or one that we could use for a couple of weeks. Given the overall sentament of Wall Street right now, within the context of the game, I'm more apt to buy dips and sell rips as Jeff Macke says on Fast Money.

Which is why I'm adding a $100,000 position in NYX. There's absolutely no reason for the traders to punish NYX like they did today. They covering their asses, not their shorts with selling the exchange. I wish we could use leverage with this one, because it's going to rebound better than a healthy Shaquille O'Neal with a super-sized life-water.

I'm also thinking about getting into the banks. I'll watch for signs of waning pressure to sell on Wachovia, US Banc Corp., and Well Fargo, and get in near this short term bottom. Again, looking to buy dips, and sell rips. The banks will probalby be a trader's paradise all of 2008, thanks to the Fed's actions with interest rates, and pumping cheap money to drive inflation.

Must say I did not see Wynn's nice move today coming. I've played in their casino in Vegas, and must say I left seeing red (not only because of how much of the inside is lit in the dark crimson). Their poker room had decent tables, but is terribly laid out and has little room for player comforts like leg space. But if Wynn goes up, my guess is MGM and LVS will follow from their Macau exposure. Penn National gaming may be a gaming stock to short if the economic troubles continue, due to their geographic positioning.

Not sure about whether Gold or Oil will rebound this week off of their sell-offs this week, but it may be time to start a slow short term buy of OIL or GLD on the ETF front. Something like adding $10,000 per day to one or the other. I'm leaning toward gold at this point, because of the inflationary fears that another rate cut would help spread. God help Bernake and the Fed governors at this point. They're damned if they do cut, and damned if they don't. Maybe Bloomberg will ride to the rescue of this election after all.

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Ok, so I was big time wrong...

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So Cisco's guidance spooked the street, and may drive the NASDAQ into bear market territory. In the long run that's probably a huge buying signal. In the confines of this game though...

I'm tempted to hold here, and see what happens. I think there has to be a tech rally coming. There's just too much of a shift toward the internet and wireless devices for there not to be. JDSU's stellar performace should be part of a larger catalyst, instead of standout performer in a down market.

The 4 horsemen of the NASDAQ, and some of their squires like RIMM and EMC, are all essentially value stocks now. If you start to build a position at these levels, you'll probably be smiling in the next 2-3 years from 50%+ long term capital gains.

Oil and gas stocks are starting to look attractive again. Microsoft's stockscouter has Chevron, Oxy, and Haliburton on its 9 and 10 rankings. And in the Natural Gas sector, stockscouter has Chesapeake Energy on its list. I bought some of them to start the week as natural gas prices dipped from last week. That story should reverse as we get another blast of cold coming in at the end of the week, and CHK and even the ETF for U.S. Natural Gas (UNG) may be worth a serious look.

As for Gold, I have a feeling with the recent comments about inflation fears from two Fed Governors, will help move GLD.

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About time Cisco

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CSCO finally starting to rally. The lows it hit due to the fear on the street made me wish I had enough real money to invest in an IRA/ROTH/real account. I predict CSCO will hit $27-30 by the start of Summer. Their guidance looks as promising as ever, even in this perceived tough economic environment.

Now if only MSFT and EMC, and INTL would rebound... again a long term buying opportunity.

I thoug4ht my selling of MOS and CHK for a 20% gain were a wise move, given the quick rise in price recently. I was wrong. MOS and CHK had only more to go. Crop and Nat. Gas prices are moving higher, and no sign of a pull back is evident. Oops. In a longer term account, I would've probably held onto both, but been more more likely to sell MOS hoping to buy it back below $95.

NTRI continues to disappoint in the shorrt term. But long term, this is a HUGE buying opportunity.

AAPL is finally starting to rebound, which is also long overdue.

GLD I don't see falling anytime soon. Inflation fears are too high.

I'm not sure what will happen from here, other than "The markets will fluctuate."

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