Sold ICO because it reversed its run, still gained me 20% plus. Looks like profit takers killed the price action today (Wendesday).

Holding on to my stake in Arch Coal. A 6-month chart shows strong technicals (higher highs) to go along with the fundamentals and forecasted higher earnings projections. But we're approaching the 52-week high. Will Arch Coal see a pull back within the next month, giving us another entry point to buy into, and surge past its old 52-week high? I think it will surge past the current 52-week high.

Holding onto to BHI, YUM, MSFT, CSCO, INTC.

BHI up 20%+ since I bought it. As long as oil keeps going up, and BHI has backlog of work, it should say strong. I bet some profit taking will happen soon though.

YUM remains yummy, up 17%+ since I bought it. Got to love the international growth story here.

MSFT finally starting to power up. Stock finally got back over $30 mark, then above $31 in intraday trading Wednesday. More than 14% of my portfolio is in MSFT, and I'm happy with the big bet for now.

CSCO also starting to turn around. I had to keep dollar cost averaging this one, and ended up with about 11% of my portfolio in it. I may trim a bit to take some profits, but feel tech's resurgence is coming. The global wireless internet story is too compelling for CSCO not to get a big boost from its router biz for it.

INTC I may also trim a bit here, as it's at 10.5% of my portfolio. I'm not certain on the short-term (meaning for the contest) direction for the stock price. Long-term (1-5 years) I believe Intel will gradually climb, with a price target of between $35-40 by 2012. Chips will rebound when the next big tech breakthrough happens, and Intel is generally at the forefront of it.

Apple - I was correct and incorrect about Apple. I was correct when I sold it around $155, because of the short-term decline to $148. I was incorrect in how much Apple shares would fall. So far, about $10-13 per share wrong. By the end of this year, I see Apple spiking and falling between the $180 and $120 mark it set. I think we have a 3-month or so trading range forming, barring some type of strong catalyst (I.E. iPhone getting legally into China, or a massive sales surge of Macs and iBook/MacAir laptops)

Refiners (TSO) - OK, if a fundamental story for the refiners is NOT setting the table, then I don't know what is. Gasoline inventories down 3+ billion, RBOB selling at $3+, refining capacity at 85%, and SUMMER DRIVING SEASON IS NEARLY UPON US!!! Americans will drive, no matter what happens. The obliteration of Tesoro's stock price make no sense whatsoever to me. The last time Tesoro was this low was in the 2nd half of 2006, and it did not stay below $30 for long. You half to go back to the first half of 2005 before finding an extended trading range below $30 for TSO. This stock was a $60+ stock less than six months ago, before sliding down a vertical knife-edge drop (think Jon Stewart and the Daily Show's "Crisis in the Chartland" graphic). A P/E of 6.66 may be a devilish sign though. Long term, I'm EXTREMELY bullish on TSO.

Valero has not suffered quite as poorly as Tesoro, but a 33% drop in stock price may cause a few double takes. Others will argue that VLO is now trading near its bottoms from late 2006 and early 2007. Their P/E of 6.80 is slightly higher than TSO's, but VLO is more integrated. I'm not sure if I would put it in the same category as Hess or Conoco Phillips though.

Solar goes dark? - Well, my 4 solar plays have not done so well since I bought them. LDK, SOLF, AMAT, ESLR are all down, with ELSR being the poorest performer of the group. Perhaps I mis-timed the purchases. Long term, solar is a real story. And I agree with much of what has been written about the challenges of making solar wafers thin and cheap enough that collect enough energy to make it profitable. Short-term, I more than likely mistimed the volatility. Perhaps they will rebound soon with oil nearing $120 per barrel.

Comments: View Comments |  Wednesday April 23, 2008

After making 25% on my shares of APPL and FCX, I'm selling them all. I got out of Apple before the close Monday, and I'm sellng my Freeport on the open Tuesday.

Why sell Apple? Too much hype over 3G iPhone has driven the price up quickly. I'm taking advantage of that speculation to cash in. I expect Apple to trade back down to an entry point of 125-130 in a month or so, and then I may think about getting back in. Jeff Macke also made a good point on CNBC's Fast Money, when he said (paraphrasing) a little pullback in Apple would be good for all of us.

Why sell FCX? Look at the technicals. A 6 month chart shows FCX is nearing or at a quadrouple top just below $110. Now some may interpret this as a potential breakout signal. To those folks, I say look at Monday's price action. FCX open spiked a few % above it's Friday close, and it became a slow profit-taking sell off. If the 6 month chart technicals hold (barring some outside event), I think FCX will churn for a while in the range of $92-108. I'm not certain what will cause a breakout higher, aside from massive inflation, devaluation of the U.S. dollar, or a world copper shortage. All of the good news is probably priced into FCX stock price for the near term. I think we'll see a slow pull back, maybe to 100 within the next 2 weeks.

I wish I could sit on the sidelines with a bunch of cash right here, but the rules of the game don't allow me to do so.

So I bought into two sectors that saw mostly a slight sell-off Monday. Solar and Coal.

Solar I targeted LDK, ESLR, SOLF, and AMAT. With Applied Materials I added to an existing small position that's so far been a loser. I think with oil increasingly hovering around $110,a nd realistically threatening to break through soon, Solar could be set to breakout. Both LDK and SOLF just reported big, good news. ESLR has seen positive momentum in the options market, according to Pete Najarian on CNBC's Fast Money. Both ESLR and AMAT have not received the recent momentum surge though that other solar names got last week. So those 2 are more of a laggard play.

In the coal names, ACI saw a sell off today. I think it was just slight trader profit taking, and Arch Coal should rebound on the dip. Then there's ICO. Carter Worth made a strong technical argument for ICO getting ready to make a breakout on a taped segment on Fast Money Monday. Since this is a game, it's worth taking a $10,000 flyer on. Not much risk, and one can further cut that risk with a tight stop at $6 from the current price of just under $7.

YUM continues to be a solid performer for me. Up 12% since I bought the stock. International growth and sales staying strong. China loves the Colonel's chicken. Who can blame them?

Baker-Hughes (BHI) finally starting to perform like I had hoped. I think it's underperfoming Schlumberge though, so I may turn out to be wrong on my valuation momentum guess.

Then there are the stocks that should be moving but keep falling for me.

Oh Tesoro, why oh why won't you rise? Gas prices rising, Crack spread narrowing, Summer driving season rapidly approaching, a low P/E ratio, what else do I have to say? If this were for the long term I'd be adding up to about $35 per share then holding on till it got back up to $50+. I prefer TSO over VLO for the low P/E, and larger gains possible from a big fast move in this contest.

Also wrong so far, my bet for a big rebound by Humana.

Stocks that are churning: MSFT, GE, CSCO. I still like all 3. GE may be set for a pull back though.

Comments: View Comments |  Monday April 7, 2008