And there was an interesting bearish cross on the daily chart of the SDS last week, as the 50 day SMA crossed below the 200 day SMA. Could this signal a further bull run in general?

On a technical basis I think we're going to pull back on the S&P 500, but not much. The pull back will allow the 50 day and 200 day SMAs to move closer together, and then the 2nd surge should come.

So if you're like me, and you missed the first rally in your 401ks Index funds, I think you'll get another opportunity this year. How long it will take, I'm not certain.

Watch the charts, they don't lie.

Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan both closed Friday on, or very near, their 50 day moving average.

The break above the 50 MA has been widely cited on CNBC, as well as the web as a sign that the financial stocks were going to rally.

Monday will prove the first key technical test, to see if they bounce off or break down.

Given trends in two other technical indicators, my guess is they will break down. Both the MACD (8,17,9) and the Slow Stoch (14,5) in MS & JPM have started to trend negative. In MS's case, the MACD divergence has already crossed below 0 to the negative, and the Slow Stoch has crossed below 80. In JPM's case, the MACD divergence declined the past two sessions, and the Slow Stoch has already crossed over it's signal line, and will probably break below 80 on Monday.

Looking at a broader measure of financial stocks, the XLF could not sustain its break above its 50 day MA. The ETF closed below the 50MA this past Thursday, and followed with another down day on Friday.

From a technical perspective, the XLF is like JPM in that its MACD declined the past two session, and like MS in that its Slow Stoch has alread crossed below 80.

All three made huge moves last week, and already retraced some from that. So let's factor the price movement in as well. A 50% retracement from the high of each moves gives us approximately:

JPM - $21 (close Friday at $23.15)
MS - $21 (close Friday at $20.24)
XLF - $7.80 (close Friday at $8.14)

So what does this suggest going forward? Given the overall sentiment about how "strong" of a company MS is, the break below a 50% retracement signals one of two likely scenarios:

(1) Not all may be well still in bank stock land, and this bear market rally in the financials may already be over

OR

(2) Perhaps traders "overdid" the selling/profit-taking on MS, and that's your best opportunity for the bear market rally going forward.

I'm not experienced enough to say "with any authority," which is the more likely scenario. So like a lot of other traders, I'll make a guess.

Personally, I don't believe in the rally from a fundamental standpoint. I agree with Jeff Macke that we cannot accurately value how the banks are making money, despite assurances of Citi, BofA,a nd JPM this past week about the "profitability" so far this year. Until we create an accounting system that anyone who balances a checkbook can understand, there will always be those who "financially engineer" their books to deceive shareholders, board members, regulators, and lawmakers for their own good.

From a technical trading perspective, the indicators show downward trends.

So based on my fundamental viewpoint and the technical indicators, my guess is we're heading lower in the financials again. I don't know how low however.

So given the negative outlook, where's the best place to make money? Given the three above symbols, I'm more likely to be interested in an April put options spread on JPM. Shorting the stock outright is too dangerous imho, given the volatility in the financials. Being able to define your risk accurately is important in volatile times.

So I'd recommend buying the $23 put option, and selling the $18 put option. At Friday's close, you' be paying about $1.77 for this, with a maximum profit opportunity of $3.23. Not quite 2 to 1, but pretty close. Also, let's say JPM stalls out at its 50% retracement level. This spread eeks out a tiny bit of profit per spread contract. If you can afford enough of them, that tiny bit of profit offers a real return on investment (before fees and taxes) of just under 13%.

So what should you do now?

It's time to start buying quality on the cheap.

Now the average investor can't do what Warren Buffett did, getting 10% for life essentially and an option to buy more for potentially less than face value, but there are a lot of companies out there who are quality on the cheap for INVESTORS WITH A LONG TERM MINDSET (10+ years)

My first buy today: CHK when it dipped below $13.

Chesapeake has become the #1 or #2 (depending on how you view it) natural gas producer in the U.S. In the good days, it went north of $60 per share. In the low teens, that'a more than a 75% discount from the highs.

But Chesapeake won't recover quickly. It's a long term share price growth story.

Essentially a greenier energy source than oil, will make you green (cash) in the next decade + .

--Look at how many plants have converted to nat. gas for electricity.
--How do you make all of that steel for infrastructure growth? Nat. gas needed to heat to hot temperatures.
--T. Boone Pickens isn't blowing hot-air about using nat. gas as a bridge.
--Democrats in Congress seriously considering off-shore drilling for nat. gas

All of this adds up to a decade long (or longer) fundamental story for nat. gas.

Again, CHK won't recover by end of 2008, but probably by Spring 2010, we'll start to see momentum recover. From a $13 price floor, we could easily see $40 by 2018, and that's about 15% compounded return on investment.

Others I like for 5+ years recoveries: Both MGM & LVS. Both are in the low teens, and the world is not going to stop gambling anytime soon. Of the two, I prefer MGM because of its brand name properties, performance at those properties, and expansion plan.

Which leaves me pretty much down and out. We have to hold too many stocks for my liking in this contest, in a volatile market where day to day changes favor those who move quickly.

I'm just not experienced enough to see beyond 2 or 3 opportunites currently, while the top players have the foresight.

Persoanlly, I'd rather only have about 4-5 stocks in my portfolio right now (GRMN, ISRG, KWK, DKS, KSS), if I had to start from scratch today. All are undervalued, and have promise if their growth falls within analyst expectations.

Stocks I'd keep on my radar for attractive entry points: GS (Below $165), CSCO (Below $24), INTC (below $21), V (when it falls below $80 again), USB (When I figure out why a so-called conservative bank is getting knocked down).

I've pretty much proven that I don't understand certain stocks as well as I thought. TSO, MSFT, NVDA, GE, PFE, NTRI, and NYX all fit that bill. Of course this is all relatively short-term reuslts (4 months is hardly conclusive), and I may turn out to be correct with a longer time-frame. However, within the confines of this game, I did not perform well enough. I have no one but myself to blame.

What I find intriguing is that my longer term portfolio I'm also running on Marketocracy, is positive. For that one, I sold half of my AAPL position when it broke $185 back on May 12th. I then got out of AAPL all-together at $188 the next day. I also sold part of my EMC and CSCO positions on May 13th. I made large bets on all three stocks, and did well on them.

Now I'm mulling whether to dump my CVX position when it goes above $100 again, and whether to dump JEC. Both positions are up 23%+ since I bought them.

Just goes to show I have a lot more to learn.

Well we've got such a situation, thanks to the fears being force fed to us about the economy going down the toilet.

They are Garmin and MGM Mirage.

The case for GRMN:

The premiere name in GPS devices. They put competitors like Tom-Tom to shame. And really, who believes those God awful commercials from Tom-Tom actually helps Tom-Tom's bottom line. Forget Tom-Tom, or Sue-Sue, or whatever name you want to double... give-a-give a Garmin. Makes it much simpler to get your idea across.

Garmin won't be dragged into a price war because of the quality of their product. The company also makes money off of selling its GPS technology to cell phone makers.

Then there's the financial side. And boy does Garmin impress. Book value per share has climbed from 78 cents per share in 1998 to $10.83 per share in 2007. And Return on Equity has never dipped below 22% in the past decade. Garmin's ROIC in the past 5 years average is 34.5%, which is more than four times the industry average, and more than three times the S&P 500 average.

With numbers like that, Garmin can't be trading below fair value can it? Oh Mr. Market is having another one of his manic depressions over this GPS giant. Current fair value estimate, given it's current earnings, projected average growth rate, and an average past P/E for 10 years is approximately $116. It's selling at $50 per share as of end of Friday trading, and that's AFTER an $8 per share move from Monday!!! So yes, it's up nearly 20% in a week, but it has a lot more room to grow.

The case for MGM:

Fair value estimates for this stock given it's current earnings, projected average growth rate, and an average past P/E for 10 years is approximately $111. From that level, it should hit a target price of $444 in 10 years, averaging about 15% compounded ROI (minus expenses of investing and taxes).

Then you've got the properties. Macau, the Bellagio, the MGM Grand, and several new international hotels/casinos including a new Middle East venture. This company can thrive when the U.S. market slows down thanks to its international exposure.

Then there's the book value and Return on Equity story. In the past ten years, book value per share has increased from $4.63 per share in 1998 to $20.63 per share as of 2007. In five of the past six years, Return on Equity has been more than 10%, and increased the past five straight years.

MGM's longer track record and success as a public company, makes it a more stable name to invest in than it's bigger competitors Wynn or Harrah's.

Both GRMN and MGM have three key technials in common:

1. Both recently crossed above their 30 day moving average
2. Both of their Stochastic oscillators are surging. MGM above 50, and GRMN crossed above 80.
3. Both MACD divergences are approaching 0. And the trend looks positive.

So I'm buying both for my SLO2 account and my longer term Marketrocracy account.

Other new positions:

Citibank's drop back below $24 per share has me buying in. This is purely for a value TRADE. I predict at least a 15% return within a month.

Pfizer dropped below $20 per share. The last time this happened, Prizer shot up above $22 quickly (like it was injected with Viagra or something... lol). I don't see why it won't do it again. Heck PFE below $20 is a great long term investment for both the dividend, and turnaround potential.

I added more to my Visa position on the dips this past week. I still feel Visa has tremendous long term potential.

Holding on to: WDC, YUM, BHI, INTC, BUD, MSFT, NTRI, CSCO, DNA, VZ, GE, SIRI, TSO.

Selling HUM, AMAT, MO, PM, ESLR, MRK to free up cash to buy GRMN & MGM. Also, because I just don't understand these stocks enough.

Taking profits in several stocks:

Selling all of my ACI. It's up 24% since I bought it. Dollar getting stronger may impact it.

Trimmed positions in PCP, CSCO, INTL, and BHI to free up cash.

Sold off half of my position in PCP after 17% advance. Still like them long term.

Sold off 1,000 shares each of Cisco & Intel, after they finally turned positive. This equals about ¼ of my position in both. CSCO of course had a wonderful rally Friday, making it up 10% overall for me. Intel, I was a bit late selling into strength, but it's still up 7% for me since I bought in.

BHI, I sold about 1/3rd of my position due to the drop in the oil services sector. I had a funny feeling that when BHI crossed 20% gains for me that it was going to fall. I should've acted on that feeling. BHI still up 14% for me since I bought it though.

Dark times for my solar picks:

LDK the only one of the 4 stocks in the black, up 4% since I bought in.
--AMAT, down 2%
--SOLF , down 12%
--ESLR down 21%

Overall, I think I poorly timed my entry into these.

What I bought into recently:

Got long some bio-pharma. Genetech (DNA) is nearing support level. Building a position between $65-70.

More MO. Altria dropped a bit recently, so I bought in. MO has got get up and go.

KALU. Kaiser saw some retracement, and it's a Karen Finerman favorite on Fast Money. It's got the commodities play, and airline backlog story going for it.

GE. I bought $50,000 worth on the day it got obliterated by the earnings news. Guess what, it's back up. Gee, who didn't see that coming.

WDC. PC sales up equal good news for the hard drive maker. I'm up 5% since my buy-in. I think it has room to go higher with the shifting of money from commodity plays to Tech.

Holding on to:

YUM - Still yummy, but not moving much. Still up 17% since I bought in, and that's damn good.

VZ - Verizon starting to gain some momentum. May sell this soon to take profits. Up 11% so far.

NTRI - I told you Nutri-System would rebound. Wish I had bought in at $14. Still up since I got back in it though, and it has A LOT of room to go higher. Heck, they've even got Larry the Cable Guy doing ads for them now. Get 'er done!

BUD - The king of beers is grinding away higher. Up 6% since I bought in.

HUM - Slowly starting to rebound from the health stock obliteration in March.

TSO - I think it can, I think it can, I think it can... Summer driving season approaching, crack spreads narrowing a bit more this week, and Lenny Dykstra even saying it a value play! Come on folks, like Citi at $20, Tesoro at $25 is a STEAL!!! You're looking at a likely double, and even more likely 50-75% advance from current levels within 12-18 months.

MSFT - Wow, a roller coasted for Mr. Softy. Late today it came out that Microsoft will more than likely RAISE its price for Yahoo! We'll see what this does next week, but short-term I think it's more beneficial for YAHOO! Shareholders than MSFT. Still, MSFT below $30 is a lead-pipe lock BUY

Holding on to my stake in Arch Coal. A 6-month chart shows strong technicals (higher highs) to go along with the fundamentals and forecasted higher earnings projections. But we're approaching the 52-week high. Will Arch Coal see a pull back within the next month, giving us another entry point to buy into, and surge past its old 52-week high? I think it will surge past the current 52-week high.

Holding onto to BHI, YUM, MSFT, CSCO, INTC.

BHI up 20%+ since I bought it. As long as oil keeps going up, and BHI has backlog of work, it should say strong. I bet some profit taking will happen soon though.

YUM remains yummy, up 17%+ since I bought it. Got to love the international growth story here.

MSFT finally starting to power up. Stock finally got back over $30 mark, then above $31 in intraday trading Wednesday. More than 14% of my portfolio is in MSFT, and I'm happy with the big bet for now.

CSCO also starting to turn around. I had to keep dollar cost averaging this one, and ended up with about 11% of my portfolio in it. I may trim a bit to take some profits, but feel tech's resurgence is coming. The global wireless internet story is too compelling for CSCO not to get a big boost from its router biz for it.

INTC I may also trim a bit here, as it's at 10.5% of my portfolio. I'm not certain on the short-term (meaning for the contest) direction for the stock price. Long-term (1-5 years) I believe Intel will gradually climb, with a price target of between $35-40 by 2012. Chips will rebound when the next big tech breakthrough happens, and Intel is generally at the forefront of it.

Apple - I was correct and incorrect about Apple. I was correct when I sold it around $155, because of the short-term decline to $148. I was incorrect in how much Apple shares would fall. So far, about $10-13 per share wrong. By the end of this year, I see Apple spiking and falling between the $180 and $120 mark it set. I think we have a 3-month or so trading range forming, barring some type of strong catalyst (I.E. iPhone getting legally into China, or a massive sales surge of Macs and iBook/MacAir laptops)

Refiners (TSO) - OK, if a fundamental story for the refiners is NOT setting the table, then I don't know what is. Gasoline inventories down 3+ billion, RBOB selling at $3+, refining capacity at 85%, and SUMMER DRIVING SEASON IS NEARLY UPON US!!! Americans will drive, no matter what happens. The obliteration of Tesoro's stock price make no sense whatsoever to me. The last time Tesoro was this low was in the 2nd half of 2006, and it did not stay below $30 for long. You half to go back to the first half of 2005 before finding an extended trading range below $30 for TSO. This stock was a $60+ stock less than six months ago, before sliding down a vertical knife-edge drop (think Jon Stewart and the Daily Show's "Crisis in the Chartland" graphic). A P/E of 6.66 may be a devilish sign though. Long term, I'm EXTREMELY bullish on TSO.

Valero has not suffered quite as poorly as Tesoro, but a 33% drop in stock price may cause a few double takes. Others will argue that VLO is now trading near its bottoms from late 2006 and early 2007. Their P/E of 6.80 is slightly higher than TSO's, but VLO is more integrated. I'm not sure if I would put it in the same category as Hess or Conoco Phillips though.

Solar goes dark? - Well, my 4 solar plays have not done so well since I bought them. LDK, SOLF, AMAT, ESLR are all down, with ELSR being the poorest performer of the group. Perhaps I mis-timed the purchases. Long term, solar is a real story. And I agree with much of what has been written about the challenges of making solar wafers thin and cheap enough that collect enough energy to make it profitable. Short-term, I more than likely mistimed the volatility. Perhaps they will rebound soon with oil nearing $120 per barrel.

Why sell Apple? Too much hype over 3G iPhone has driven the price up quickly. I'm taking advantage of that speculation to cash in. I expect Apple to trade back down to an entry point of 125-130 in a month or so, and then I may think about getting back in. Jeff Macke also made a good point on CNBC's Fast Money, when he said (paraphrasing) a little pullback in Apple would be good for all of us.

Why sell FCX? Look at the technicals. A 6 month chart shows FCX is nearing or at a quadrouple top just below $110. Now some may interpret this as a potential breakout signal. To those folks, I say look at Monday's price action. FCX open spiked a few % above it's Friday close, and it became a slow profit-taking sell off. If the 6 month chart technicals hold (barring some outside event), I think FCX will churn for a while in the range of $92-108. I'm not certain what will cause a breakout higher, aside from massive inflation, devaluation of the U.S. dollar, or a world copper shortage. All of the good news is probably priced into FCX stock price for the near term. I think we'll see a slow pull back, maybe to 100 within the next 2 weeks.

I wish I could sit on the sidelines with a bunch of cash right here, but the rules of the game don't allow me to do so.

So I bought into two sectors that saw mostly a slight sell-off Monday. Solar and Coal.

Solar I targeted LDK, ESLR, SOLF, and AMAT. With Applied Materials I added to an existing small position that's so far been a loser. I think with oil increasingly hovering around $110,a nd realistically threatening to break through soon, Solar could be set to breakout. Both LDK and SOLF just reported big, good news. ESLR has seen positive momentum in the options market, according to Pete Najarian on CNBC's Fast Money. Both ESLR and AMAT have not received the recent momentum surge though that other solar names got last week. So those 2 are more of a laggard play.

In the coal names, ACI saw a sell off today. I think it was just slight trader profit taking, and Arch Coal should rebound on the dip. Then there's ICO. Carter Worth made a strong technical argument for ICO getting ready to make a breakout on a taped segment on Fast Money Monday. Since this is a game, it's worth taking a $10,000 flyer on. Not much risk, and one can further cut that risk with a tight stop at $6 from the current price of just under $7.

YUM continues to be a solid performer for me. Up 12% since I bought the stock. International growth and sales staying strong. China loves the Colonel's chicken. Who can blame them?

Baker-Hughes (BHI) finally starting to perform like I had hoped. I think it's underperfoming Schlumberge though, so I may turn out to be wrong on my valuation momentum guess.

Then there are the stocks that should be moving but keep falling for me.

Oh Tesoro, why oh why won't you rise? Gas prices rising, Crack spread narrowing, Summer driving season rapidly approaching, a low P/E ratio, what else do I have to say? If this were for the long term I'd be adding up to about $35 per share then holding on till it got back up to $50+. I prefer TSO over VLO for the low P/E, and larger gains possible from a big fast move in this contest.

Also wrong so far, my bet for a big rebound by Humana.

Stocks that are churning: MSFT, GE, CSCO. I still like all 3. GE may be set for a pull back though.

Well looks like Jeff Macke was correct on GLD. I was wrong. Dennis Gartman is major league worried, so I'm dumping my GLD.

There are a couple of intesting trades to be had due to stocks nearing their 52 week lows:

Verizon & Merck.

Verizon's news that they'll open their network up to more devices may be a long term bullish move, given their video downloading dominance. I'll but on that news.

Merck, well it's been beaten down, and due for a short-term turnaround. Pete Najarian likes it as well. So I'm in for a little bit of Merck as well.

FCX is interesting because of the pummeling it took todya as well. Guy Adami said on Fast Money that the psat few times FCX dipped into the 80s it was a buy. With an 11% move down just today, I think that offers a nice speculative cushion to begin building a position. I'm dipping my toes for $10,000 of FCX in the SLO2.

Which is more intersting: Monsanto down nearly 12%, or Potash down nearly 11%? Either way, they're starting to come down to buyable levels.

Down seems to be a recurring theme, so I'am beginning a DOG position. I should've put it on yesterday, but oh well.

Altria looks like it might be a fairly safe defensive play here around $70. So I'm in.

Also, BUD looks like its getting close to turning the corner. I'll double down on my BUD position.

I'm not certain if I should be disappointed in myself for not selling my YUM position today. It lost half of what it's earned for me today, but everything is volatile as heck these days.

I also spotted what I believe to be a bit of a bargain in a forum favorite. Sirius dropped to $2.75 last week. And just about any time it dips below $3 it's a buy, so I'm in for a little bit, nothing too much though.

I think I've identified a trading range for Ford as well. I'm waiting for a triple confirmation signal before getting in though.

LEH, up nicely. Too bad I didn't buy Monday, but for some reason whenever I try to log into Marketrocracy during the day, I can't get in.

Well, time to take profits, and dump LEH at the opeb, C at $21.00, and GS if it hits $180. I believe all of these stock have some upside to them, but I am not certain how long that bullish sentiment will last (probably until after 11:30 a.m. on Thursday). So I'm taking my profits and running.

Running into Morgan Stanley. The fall of Bear Stearns (God help those poor employees) means great things for Morgan Stanley, as Guy Adami pointed out on CNBC's Fast Money Tuesday night. MS competes with Goldman Sachs for best investment bank status, and they should get a longer "short-term" bounce when MS reports before the bell Wednesday morning. Either way, this is a one day trade for me here. Bob and weave.

VISA IPO has me all geeked up (technical term). Larger than Mastercard, and they priced above the range!!! Some predict a 10% positive move once the stock hits the street Wednesday morning. I'm a bit more optimistic. I forsee $60 per share by mid-April. Mastercard may fall a bit because of it, or more likely American Express and Discover Card will get schlacked even more. I raised cash sellng some losers Tuesday morning into the rally specifically so I could put down a $150,000 bet on VISA. This will make VISA the largest part of my portfolio. I missed out on Mastercard, I'm not going to miss out on VISA, and I think a lot of other people will have similar thoughts, and bid up the stock big time.

CSCO needs to keep chugging along. My patience in it, AAPL, INTC, and MSFT are finally starting to pay off. I'll take slow gains, as long they remain overall bullish.

TSO showed signs of life today, as I predicted for a while now. I think it's a hold for the amount I have invested in it, until at least May.

YUM continues to stay yummy. China must feel like chicken every night. YUM's foreign growth numbers are spectacular. Hopefully they continue the strong story.

BUD on the other hand fizzled. Up less than 1% on a day like today is very disappointing. I'm seriously thinking about dumping it, and finding something else to pu the money into (for the purposes of this game only).

GLD is an intersting story. Jeff Macke advised dumping it as a trade on Fast Money. I'm not sure that's such a good idea, given the devaluing of the dollar that the fed rate cut will cause once things settle down. I'm not certain how high Gold will get, but I think GLD is a buy on dips. Still love Macke though.

AMAT got an upgrade today. Caris & Company cited thin film solar profits for boosting their taget price to $27, and moving to a buy. I'm starting a position.

Also interesting, UBS upgraded CSX to a buy from neutral. UBS placed a $66 price target on it. CSX set a new 52 week high today, and profit taking was going on after-hours. I'm keeping an eye on it. Railroad stocks may be overdone in the short-term.

Bear Stearns is now the official scapegoat for the Sub-prime mess in the investment banks. God help those poor employees at Bear Stearns who just got the floor taken out from under them. I wish I had owned JPMorgan, good God that was a steal of a deal. Just the real estate alone makes that deal just about worth it.

Does this mean there's a short term floor in for the financials? For some companies, probably. Other than JPMorgan, probably Lehman, Citigroup, and maybe Morgan Stanley. All have gotten beaten down, with Morgan Stanley not being "quite" as beaten down imcomparison with that list. JPMorgan's bounce, in combination with an expeccted Fed rate cut of between 75 and 100 basis points (If you believe the futures markets) could provide a very short term bounce for the financials (2 days or less). I'm not sure if the fed rate cut would help more solvent banks like USB (Bufffet's bet) as much as those who've taken it on the chin. Citigroup is still the largest bank in the U.S. #2 I believe is still BAC. BAC and Capital One have credit card problems, so any fed rate cut probably won't help them that much. Wachovia also has some credit card exposure, but not nearly as much. So Wachovia could get a medium bump. Overall, I think Ciitgroup is the play if you think a fed funds rate will provide a very short term boost for a trade, but be prepared to move out quick if you get a bounce of more than $1-2 per share. I may start building a small position in Citi.

Speaking of financials, if Goldman Sachs doesn't blow the cover off the ball with earnings this week, we're in for an extremely rough ride in the investment banks. I'm betting they will come through though. Add in the psychotic Mr. Market's deep discount on LEH, I'm starting a new position in LEH, and adding to GS. How long I'll hang on to these trades, I'm not sure. LEH , probable not more than a 10-15% move up, due to the fickle nature with this market and the financials.

Have you seen the price of gas lately? AAA says America, and regions across the country, are hitting new gas price records nearly every day. We've got a confluence of events happening that makes the refiners very attractive:

1. Oil taking a dive (please go down A LOT more)
2. Summer driving season coming - yes America will still drive even with $4.00 gas
3. Maintenance cycle
4. Extremely cheap P/E ratios, and other valuations relative to their history (with many refiners at or near their 52 week lows)
5. Currently "high" gas inventories giving the illusion that supply won't be a problem, when as we all know, people will get scared when refinery utilization rates fall between 82-86%, which is almost always bound to happen during the maintenance cycle

With all of that as background, I'm doubling down on TSO. Why them and not Valero? Well, the stock just took another 10% hit today (Monday), their stock price is low compared with their competitors, and their P/E is VERY attractive. I believe you get the most bang for your buck on a refiner move with TSO for this game's purpose, than paying a higher price for Valero.

Hello CSCO, how are you :-) I knew you'd come around. Now if you could kindly kick INTL, AAPL, NVDA, and MSFT in the rear, and bring them along with you for the ride, my game portfolio would really appreciate it.

A special rant about NVDA: I don't know how the #1 graphics card maker in the world is losing so much in their stock price. The don't just have a moat, they have a virtual ocean between themselves and anyone else. When the NASDAQ turns around, this stock will soar.

EMC, EMC, EMC, oh what you do to me. $14.47 and falling. I don't know, man I really don't know what's wrong here. Relatively good earnings and guidance. Sigh. Between you and Amazon, I don't understand what's going wrong. I don't know how much longer I can fight the tape on this for the purposes of this game. In a real account, I buy, and won't look back, then buy some more when prices get cheaper.

BUD, no St. Patrick's Day pop is disappointing. Long term, this may prove to be an entry point. But for the purposes of this game, the lager is weighing me down.

PCP's stock price is on acid. Again, same situation as BUD probably. Long term hold, but I'm not certain for this game.

NYX is also disappointing. I guess people are afraid that fewer trades will happen as the economy gets worse.

The one thing I learn more and more from this game is just how far in the future that "Wall Street" looks when pricing stocks day to day. With NYX, they must only be looking 6-9 months down the road. I feel this price is a quality entry point for longer term investors. But I guess I'm not much of a trader.

So, time to get rid of some stocks to free up some cash. With great long term regret, I'm selling NYX, NTRI, EMC, AMZN, NVDA.

GLD is still working for the obvious reasons. YUM is proving to still be a quality play in the fast food sector. YUM's overseas growth is probably contributing more than some expected.

BHI is disappointing me so far, but I expect a turnaround.

GOOG, wow was I wrong about Google being a value between 500-550. Enough said. Also unwinds one of my 10% positions.

DFS, Discover card I thought was cheap as well, but not cheap enough.

JOE, on CNN Money's best of 2008 pick list, and also relatively cheap P/E wise. Just not moving enough.

TRN, I don't know what is going on with Trinity 's stock price. Anything below $30 is an entry point to start buildng a position in my opinion for a long term value investor. They blew away 4th quarter #s, but I guess the skittish traders are throwing the baby out with the bath water as they take the market down to more appetizing value levels. My 401k appreciates that, but not my SLO account.

So with that cash freed up...

1. I'm starting to add to my GS position. Goldman Sachs is poised to BLOW AWAY the street's earning estimates. Think about it, either there is one hell of a subprime skelton hiding in Goldman's closet, or they're just doing what they do best, make LOTS of money. My guess is they're making money. And with the stock about 1/3rd off of its 52 week highs, that's enough to peak my interest even more for a trade.

2. I'm adding to my MSFT position. Microsoft gets better no matter what happens with the Yahoo! deal. This is a relatively historic opportunity to buy a DOMINANT company, with significant moats. Emerging markets will have to upgrade their technology to advance, and who else are they going to buy it from?

3. Since TSO isn't working yet, I'm going to try the Oil services sector. Both Guy Adami and Pete Najarian have been pounding the Fast Money table at CNBC about BHI, and doing some of my own research I agree with them. First, Baker Hughes is close to their 52 week low, which leaves plenty of room for upside. Second, they've got a comparable P/E to Halliburton, but Haliburton is closer to their 52 week high. Third, with oil probably trading at $100+ per barrel for an extended period of time thanks in part to the Fed's decision to turn the dollar into toilet paper, more people are going to want to drill for oil.

I'm still long term bullish on Tesoro. The crack spread eventually must narrow again, and people will still do some driving this summer. That should help the refinery biz.

I'm really tempted to double down on NTRI. They got ANNIHILATED unecessarily in my opinion. Mr. Market had a panic attack of epic order, and this is a long term 300% potential return over the next 5 years. Why? Does America have an obesity problem? Yep. Who's advertising more than jus tabout any other weight loss program? Nutri-System. And they grew the number of MEN on the program, which is traditionally difficult. I probably will not add any more though, due to the short-term nature of this contest.

GLD continues to go left to right as Dennis Gartman would say. I don't see any reason to cash in on it yet.

CSCO is on the right track (finally), and if things continue my big bet on them will pay off. Now the big question becomes will ORCL follow? The CEO's insider selling last month at virtually these same levels worries me, so I'm going to hold back for now. Tech is acting very weird so far this year.

I think the Aluminum names like Alcoa and Kaiser Aluminum, have room to fall. These names have become 2 month trading vehicles in the past year if you look at thier charts. Perhaps some of the blame for that is on the Rio Tinto deal/no deal. Get Howie Mandell on it.