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      <title>AverageJeremy</title>
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      <copyright>Copyright 2008</copyright>
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         <title>So who&apos;s running this crazy rollercoaster anyways?!</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>It certainly isn't the Fed or Mr. Bernanke.  If they were in control there wouldn't be such radical gyrations in the stock market before and after a rate cut.  There is so much volatility right now that anything the Fed does makes little difference to those with all the money.  And right now the sovereign wealth funds control some of the largest amounts of that money.  Countries like China, Norway, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudia Arabia make up the largest percentage of the sovereign wealth funds.  These funds have already brought cash to the beleagured financial markets in the U.S.  You might remember a couple of months ago when Citigroup was on the receiving end of $7.5 billion.  That money came from sovereign wealth funds and is just a small drop in the bucket of what the funds have in the way of money.  For example, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is estimated to have almost $900 billion under management.  To put this in perspective they could buy Exxon with cash and still have enough left over to buy Bank of America and Citigroup.  And the fund that Saudia Arabia is working on starting will dwarf the Abu Dhabi fund with its estimated $2.5-$3 <em><strong>trillion</strong></em> in assets.  And all of these sovereign wealth funds are becoming more and more concerned with the dollar's downward tailspin.  That is mainly due to the fact that most of what they sell, namely oil, is bought and sold in dollars.  There have been a lot of rumblings of late about changing the price of oil from dollars to euros or some other world currency that is holding up better.  Many of the countries that I have mentioned above also have a vested interest in making sure that the dollar doesn't completely crash since the United States is the largest consumer of oil in the world still.  So, many of these countries are playing the part of good global citizens by helping out with the financial crisis here in the U.S. by plopping a few billion here and there into these financial institutions to buy themselves time to figure out how to get their money out of a plummeting dollar and into something else without crashing the whole system.  Eventually these sovereign wealth funds will begin moving their money into better investments than the U.S. currently has to offer instead of the billions in U.S. treasuries and short-term U.S. government securities that these sovereign wealth funds currently hold.  And with the price of virtually everything going up and the dollar losing its value that's not a good thing for these countries right now.  So, in short, with all of the money managed by the sovereign wealth funds of the world a new paradigm is starting to unfold.  The biggest question now is, "Where are the sovereign wealth funds looking to invest the trillions of dollars that they're sitting on?"</p>

<p>Sorry for rambling on about all of that.  I just felt that I needed something to help explain why my fund currently has certain holdings.  As we progress for the next 5 or 6 months I will try to discuss one stock that I have purchased and why on a fairly regular basis.(I hope)  I will also talk about stocks that I have recently sold and why.  And of course I will probably ramble on about things that are going on in the world and the markets with each post.  I certainly love to hear comments from people about whether I should just stop blabbing nonsense or if anything was helpful or insightful.</p>

<p>So, without further rambling, my stock of the month is General Moly Inc (GMO).  This stock has been in my portfolio since January 16.  This company is a U.S.-based moly mineral development exploration and mining company.  Molybdenum, or moly, is a metal that is used in numerous applications from aircraft parts and missiles to plasma TVs and fuel cells.  Moly was once used to make samurai swords stronger and sharper without making them brittle.  Moly also has the fifth highest melting point of any element.  Molybdenum has been on fire with over 600% gain in price since its lows in 2000.  There is also growing demand for moly for just about anyting being built nowadays.  The uses of moly are almost limitless.  It has been used for all kinds of industrial building including pipe coatings, oil super tankers, and nuclear reactors.  As demand grows so does the price of moly and GMO is in a prime position to rake in massive profits over the next decade as long as the price of moly continues to rise.  I got in to GMO under my $10 buy price and I am currently sitting on nearly a 25% gain in less than 2 months.  I see commodities and alternative energy being the "hot" stocks for the rest of 2008.  Another place to watch is in foreign markets such as the B-R-I-C countries, Brazil, Russia, India, and China.  These countries will continue to grow at a rapid pace even with a slowdown in the United States.  I hope that this has been informative and helpful to anyone that reads this post.  Good luck in the competition and happy investing.</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.investorplaceblogs.com/users/rallyrs/2008/02/so_whos_running_this_crazy_rollercoaster_anyways.php</link>
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         <pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2008 19:48:00 -0500</pubDate>
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         <title>Denial isn&apos;t just a river in Egypt</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>Well, we're getting close to the end of the competition and I have really enjoyed reading some of the posts.  Namely dishwasher's blog posts.  There is a good reason that he has been at the top through most of the competition.  He knows what he's talking about.  I know that I don't even understand half of what he does about investing and I really hope that he wins this competition in the end because he really deserves to.  As for the title of my post this time, I am referring to the banks, investment firms, investors, and anyone else that was involved in the whole subprime mess.  Why would anyone want to create, let alone invest in, something so complicated that few, if any, actually understand them.  I don't really understand how CDOs work but it doesn't sound like the people that should understand them have a clue either.  We need to expose Wall Street's shadow-banking system.  Pimco's chief investment officer Bill Gross expects mortgage defaults to rise well into 2008: "There are $1 trillion worth of subprimes" and they're "basically garbage loans ... we've only begun to see the pain."  And a lack of transparency is damaging our international credibility. This debt needs to be completely written off right now.  If we wait any longer we will only prolong the inevitable, a recession, and make matters even worse.  The train wreck has already happened and the banks need to quit living in a state of denial by ignoring the problem.  I realize that many banks are still trying to assess the damage but rather than continuing to drag their feet they should just come to terms with the fact they they royally screwed up and write down all of the CDOs as bad debt.</p>

<p>The other problem that we seem to be facing right now is a great amount of greed by a select few.  I was reading an article last week by Jon Markman on MSN <a href="http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/CreditPainIsGainForASelectFew.aspx?GT1=10621">http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/CreditPainIsGainForASelectFew.aspx?GT1=10621</a>.  In the article he gives us a great perspective on what was going on with all of the CDOs and why the stock market has become a roller coaster ride.  It seems to me that this "conspiracy", if you will, has rattled the confidence of investors all over the world.  I realize that everyone is terrified of the U.S. catching a cold and sneezing on the rest of the world but that fear has been heightened due to these elite few that are making money off of that fear.  By creating false news reports about companies they have thrown an aerosol can into the fire that is the housing debacle and now that it's exploded it's anyones guess as to when we can expect the panic to stop.  So, I will probably begin to take some profits from some of my positions and redistribute my funds into "safer" vehicles.  I will of course continue to stay in some positions for the long haul since that is more my style, but I'd be crazy to let my winners come crashing down while I'm still on-board.  I am also going to tinker with a new strategy that involves earnings calls that I will discuss in greater detail in a week or two.</p>

<p>As for my current portfolio positions, I am really excited about the prospects for one of my newest acquisitions.  I recently bought shares of Sinoenergy Corp. (SNEN).  This company deals with compressed natural gas (CNG) and has plans to build 20 CNG filling stations in China.  On October 9 they announced that the first two were up and running.  Both stations are located in Wuhan City, Hubei province.  Sinoenergy is building 20 CNG filling stations within the city of Wuhan with one central station and a large-scale compressed natural gas plant.  These stations are expected to open over the next 6 months with a target of 30 CNG filling stations being operational by the end of 2008.  Currently there are 4,900 vehicles that burn CNG in Wuhan City with another 2,500 expected to be in use by the end of the year.  It is estimated that at least 20 to 30 CNG filling stations will be required to fill those 7,400 vehicles.  Currently there are only 10 stations.  I expect to see massive growth for Sinoenergy over the next 2 years.  Sinoenergy started out as a pressurized container producer and still manufactures a large number of containers for several industries.  They also make conversion kits, which began to produce revenue last quarter.  Sinoenergy is also building two refineries and a pipeline that should be up and running in 2008 and 2009 respectively.</p>

<p>To put this in perspective, in India, CNG only costs 50 cents per kilogram compared with $1.50 USD per liter of regular gasoline.  There have been reports of CNG costing around $7.17 USD per 100 km (62 miles).  If regular gas costs around $1.59 USD per liter the cost per 100 km is $15.95 USD.  That's a savings of $8.78 per 100 km or 55%.  That's a huge cost advantage.  Not only that but CNG can be used in modified diesel engines and since CNG produces very little soot, oil changes are only necessary every 10,000 miles.  In Germany, CNG burning vehicles are expected to increase to 2 million units by 2020.  Argentina and Brazil are the two countries with the largest fleets of CNG vehicles.  So, as you can see there is a great deal of upside for this company over the next two years and possibly beyond.  I expect great things from this company and good gains.</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.investorplaceblogs.com/users/rallyrs/2007/11/denial_isnt_just_a_river_in_egypt.php</link>
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         <pubDate>Tue, 20 Nov 2007 17:22:05 -0500</pubDate>
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         <title>Back from vacation</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>Now I feel refreshed and recharged and ready for a strong run before the end of the year.  The question becomes, where do I invest my money?  That really is the million dollar question too, isn't it?  I believe that to figure out where to invest, you need to figure out where the fund managers are going to invest next.  I read somewhere that around 70% of the capital invested today comes from funds such as mutual funds, index funds, etc.  Those billions and maybe even trillions of dollars drive a stock's price today.  So, the question really becomes, where are the fund managers looking to invest those billions of dollars?  I believe they are looking towards tech stocks.  There is evidence of this trend due to the Nasdaq's performance versus the Dow Jones and the S&P 500.  The Nasdaq has been performing better and making larger percent gains than either of the other two markets over the past two months.  I believe that this trend shall continue for the next 18 to 24 months.  Stocks such as Apple (AAPL) are living proof that more money is being invested in tech stocks these days.  I know that I don't have AAPL in my Strategy Lab portfolio, but only because when the competition started I felt that it was too expensive.  Of course, now I'm kicking myself for not getting in on the Apple rocket ship back in August.  Even at $140 a share Apple would have been a steal.  Since that price point Apple is up around 25%.  Currently the Nasdaq is at around a 13% to 14% gain for the year versus an 8% to 9% gain for the Dow Jones and a 6% to 7% gain for the S&P 500.  Whether this trend will continue for the next 2 years is anyone's guess but I can see the potential in stocks like Apple over that period.</p>

<p>But enough about the goings-on in the world, it's time to talk about another one of my stock choices.  My largest gainer so far has been Sangamo Biosciences (SGMO).  This stock has gained more than 70% in just under 3 months.  For the year this stock has gained over 100%.  (Full disclosure----I personally own shares of SGMO)  I have been watching this stock for several years now and I have seen it go from the lofty heights back in 2000 and 2001 during the Internet Bubble all the way down to it's lowest point in 2003 when it hit as low as $1.23.  Sangamo is another of my big pharma buyout hopefuls.  But even without any news or rumors of a buyout Sangamo has been performing far better than I ever expected.  Sangamo Biosciences develops gene therapy treatments that use zinc finger DNA-binding proteins(ZPFs).  They are currently developing treatments for several conditions and working with the big three pharma companies.  The main reason that I have so many biotech stocks is due to the fact that the Baby Boomers are starting to retire and are going to need medical treatments and have the money to spend on their own healthcare.  Sangamo is currently working on treatments for diabetic neuropathy, cardiovascular disease, brain cancer, and HIV.  The HIV treatment is currently getting all of the attention because it could make the cells of the immune system permanently resistant to infection by the HIV virus.  This is also why I believe that Sangamo is a good buyout canidate for one of the big pharma companies.  Even if Sangamo doesn't get bought out it still has the potential to become the first big-paying gene therapy company.</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.investorplaceblogs.com/users/rallyrs/2007/10/back_from_vacation.php</link>
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         <pubDate>Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:05:11 -0500</pubDate>
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         <title>My two cents about the Fed and other things....</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>Well, I guess since everyone else has stated their opinion about the Fed rate cut I might as well state what I think as well.  I certainly did not expect the Fed to cut the rate at all, let alone 50 basis points.  I am concerned that the Fed has now thrown the baby out with the bath water with this move.  Inflation is already above the Fed's 1% to 2% comfort zone for the year and the dollar is extremely weak and by lowering the Fed rate we are not helping matters for the long term.  I think that Representative Ron Paul asked a very valid question when he asked "My question is going to be around the subject of how can it ever be morally justifiable to deliberately depreciate the value of our currency?"  He was asking Mr. Bernanke about moral hazard.  I would like to thank Paul for asking this question for the hundreds of millions of pensioners, savers, poor, fixed income beneficiaries, laborers, gasoline, bread, milk, and egg-buyers who weren't able to ask Mr. Bernanke why he - like every Fed chairman before him since 1913 - screwed them for the benefit of the top 5% of the population of this country.  This country could certainly use more politicians like him to ask these difficult questions.  There was an excellent article on MSN the other day by Jon Markman about the possibility of an epic bear market.  I highly recommend reading it.  He gives us some great insight on where the market may be headed soon with his interview of Satyajit Das, a credit-derivitive insider.  Go to <a href="http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/AreWeHeadedForAnEpicBearMarket.aspx">http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/AreWeHeadedForAnEpicBearMarket.aspx</a>.</p>

<p>Well, enough of my ramblings about the Fed and the rate cut heard round the world.  It's time for me to discuss another of my stock picks and why I chose it.  This week I am going to talk about Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIS).  There are several reasons that I picked this stock.  Isis develops "antisense" drugs for cancer, diabetes and heart disease, along with drugs for allergies and HIV symptoms.  Isis is another buyout canidate that I chose based on Pfizer's need for a quick fix to make up for the loss of their new cholesterol drug Torcetrapid.</p>

<p>Isis has strong intellectual property patents on its technology, which uses small, artificially created DNA strands to bind with and eliminate the RNA encoding that cause disease. Isis was<br />
the first company to bring an antisense, the microbiology term used for the RNA-binding<br />
strands, drug to the market (in a partnership with Novartis). The company's Vitravene is FDA approved and treats blindness in AIDS patients.</p>

<p>Isis has a large number of drugs in its pipeline, with a diabetes drug, one for ulcers, a second for<br />
multiple sclerosis and a cancer drug all in Phase II testing right now. And of course, there's the<br />
company's cholesterol drug, which is also in human trials. Pfizer could be looking to Isis'<br />
cholesterol candidate to replace the time and cost it spent on its failed Torcetrapid. It would be<br />
the fastest solution for the pharmaceutical giant.</p>

<p>I don't really have a target sell price but if a buyout of the stock happens I would expect an excellent return on my investment in the next 6 to 18 months.  Right now the stock has gained close to 50% in 7 weeks.  As always I keep a 20% to 30% stop loss on all of my stocks depending on the amount of actual losses and the risk I'm willing to take that the stock will rebound.  I try to keep stocks for the long haul unless they look to have too many problems keeping the stock from performing well.  That is why I recently sold my shares of Qualcomm (QCOM).  Qualcomm is a solid company that makes chips for cell phones and other electronic devices but due to their legal woes I felt it was best to cut ties with the company until they can get beyond the numerous patent infringement lawsuits they are currently involved in.</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.investorplaceblogs.com/users/rallyrs/2007/09/my_two_cents_about_the_fed_and.php</link>
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         <pubDate>Sat, 22 Sep 2007 19:23:32 -0500</pubDate>
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         <title>Another week, another move up</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>With all of the credit crunch nonsense still giving the media something to talk about the market continues to have some quality stocks at bargain prices that have been outperforming the market.  One of those stocks I recently purchased should perform quite well over the next several years.  That stock is Thomson (TMS) and they are currently working with Nokia on developing a new technology for cell phones called <em>femtocell</em>.  BusinessWeek ran an article about this technology back in July.  Here is a link to the article for anyone interested in learning more about femtocell.  <a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/070731/jul2007tc20070730802787.html?.v=1">http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/070731/jul2007tc20070730802787.html?.v=1</a>  The gist of the article is that femtocell technology acts as an in-home wireless access point that uses a high-speed Internet connection to convey a call from a cell phone to the carrier's switching station.  This technology also conserves on cell phone battery life.  Some estimates have phones using femtocell having batteries that last up to 200 times longer.  This technology could also increase a wireless providers network capacity by up to 1500 times.  TMS is a maker of broadband modems and is currently collaborating with Nokia Siemens Networks to create a 3G femtocell home access solution.  "With expectations of femtocell units to number from 10-12 million units by 2010, TMS's position as a market leader in modems and digital technology, and its early adoption of femtocell technology make it the best and safest investment in this emerging market" according to Ann Sosnowski of Taipan Financial News.  I expect this stock to be a stable gainer until next year when femtocell is introduced to the mass markets of the world.  At that point, this stock could be worth 3 or 4 times it's current value by 2010.  (Full disclosure: I personally own shares of TMS.)</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.investorplaceblogs.com/users/rallyrs/2007/09/another_week_another_move_up.php</link>
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         <pubDate>Thu, 13 Sep 2007 13:17:51 -0500</pubDate>
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         <title>Almost in the top ten?</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>It's hard to believe that I'm still doing as well as I am with mainly biotech stocks.  I didn't think that they would steadily climb as fast as they have.  I guess that I should discuss the reasoning behind one of my picks this week.  I am going to talk about Onyx Pharmaceuticals this week.  </p>

<p>This stock (ONXX) has been a pleasant suprise gaining over 50% in just one month.  Onyx is a small-molecule drug company based in California.  They have a deal worked out with the big pharma company Bayer to manufacture and market Onyx's new cancer drug, Nexavar, for an even split of sales in the U.S.  Nexavar is FDA-approved for use on kidney cancer and Onyx is currently completing trials of Nexavar on liver cancer and awaiting approval from the FDA.  A recent article on fdanews.com stated, "Based on positive clinical trial results, Bayer Healthcare and Onyx Pharmaceuticals halted a Phase III study testing kidney cancer treatment Nexavar in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), or primary liver cancer, to allow all subjects in the study to receive treatment with the product, the companies announced Aug. 27."  This news has help push the stock to a new 52-week high.  Nexavar brought in more than $300 million just from the U.S. last year and that number is expected to double this year.  It is also estimated that once Nexavar reaches market saturation it will bring in at least $1 billion dollars.  That means that because of the deal that Bayer has with Onyx, Bayer will only see half of that amount.  I believe that Bayer will eventually buyout Onyx to end the profit-sharing agreement to gain all profits from the sale of Nexavar.  </p>

<p>I will continue to hold this stock for the next several months to see if a buyout occurs.  I believe in long term investments, even in a short term contest such as this one.  I am continually looking for quality stocks at bargain prices.  My main goal is to not lose money and grow the money that I have invested by beating market returns.</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.investorplaceblogs.com/users/rallyrs/2007/09/almost_in_the_top_ten.php</link>
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         <pubDate>Wed, 05 Sep 2007 13:26:17 -0500</pubDate>
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         <title>Finally got in</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>Now that I was finally able to get my password recovered with some help from Mark here at Movabletype I can finally post some thoughts on here.</p>

<p>Welcome to my blog.  My name is Jeremy, I am 31 years old, I fix computers for a living, and I have been investing off and on over the last 15 years.  Over that 15 years I have made several bad moves and a few good moves in the stock market.  It has all been a great learning experience.  My strategy for this competition is very aggressive.  Nearly 50% of my holdings are biotech companies.  The companies that I selected are possible canidates to be bought out by one of the big pharma companies.  The other reason that I picked so many biotech stocks is because they tend to go up very rapidly on good news.  And since this competition is only six months in length I figured that I would need some more volitile stocks in my portfolio to make it to the top.  Over the next several weeks I will describe my decision to pick each stock in detail.  Good luck to everyone else and I look forward to strong gains that beat the markets.</p>

<p>Jeremy</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.investorplaceblogs.com/users/rallyrs/2007/08/finally_got_in.php</link>
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         <pubDate>Wed, 29 Aug 2007 10:31:41 -0500</pubDate>
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