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Potash= Cash
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Potash has been on a roll since july 2006 what has fueled this growth is record demand and growth of corn crop's and wheat demand.What I like most about potash is that they own three mines (cutting out the middle man).Record crops drain soil necessitating fertlizer need and also underfertilization.There are 195 ethanol plants in america taking anywhere from 25-50% of the usa corn crop for 2008.Some plants are expanding and demand for ethanol in the near term should stay at current levels or increase.Congress could stop or limit new license's for ethanol plants. Foreign demand and Potash price increse for fertilizer should fertilize profit margin's and stock price momentum . The prudent bear in me is looking for the perfect storm.I have faith in the US economy with it's keynesist policy's.The world economy in general is stable.It would not be a suprise to see potash @ 300 in a year or so IMHO e pluribus unum Ron Stach | ||
Portfolio Report 4-9-08
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Today ,sell's mostly motivated to raise cash for repositing.No profit taking on top performers rrc,lifc,ma,neu Today sell's-Lagging-amed,wfr,cprt,wdc,anss.oi,ctx,axys. Todays buy"s-Increased positing in POT from 1% to 4%,MON-from 1 share to 4% ,V -from 1% to 4%,neu from 2% to 4% The Week Ahead Report The model is being ajusted to take profits from the top performer's at the close of the market friday All gain's and laggard's taken , will be redistribtued to these sectors's,Chemical(basic),Petroleum(producing),Coal. Please comment on the model and your 90 day outlook on equites | ||
Model portfolio report Thursday 4-10-08
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It seeem, that the general concenus today, ahead of the earnings season is that earnings estimates are Puffed up and expecting alot of earnings to come in below analyst estimates.I see that the S&P is in a sideway's trading pattern and the vix is also saying that a rally is not likely to continue Today and friday I'm going to restructer the model . Any thoughts as to the current model and stock's could be added Sell today bucy from 20% to 4% Sold, wmb,agu Buys-swn to 4%,neu to 20% Solar stock's-eslr,spwr | ||
The red pens and skeleton's - Portfolio Report 4-14-08
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The model has repositioned and as they say in blackjack "I'm sticking" this model has done well since I sarted to actively maintain it. I only hope that there is another round , best of 2 out of 3,.Its been a tough market out there. I thought that if this contest was a short contest I would of won. Any thoughts on the duration of this reccession?. Will it be V shaped or U shaped.This is not the first down turn I've been through 2000-01. .One thing that I remember the and is still good today.The market alway's makes money. In a constricting market you must identify a sector or as the model toady,a group of equites that you can count on.You must'nt pay attention to the daily bear report's in a long fund.IT'S A MARATHON FOR CHESS PLAYERS , NO SPRINT'S OR CHECKERS One of my favorites quotes is " Any man who is a bear on the future of this country will go broke"-JP MORGAN | ||
Market sentiment trumps earnings report's-Model portfolio Report 4-18-08
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Overall market sentiment trumped earning's report's this week.At the time of this report the model was up close to 4% for the week. Sell's today ( lagging ) nvo, spwr,eslr Buy to 4% Ibm. I continue to have a 20% position in New market corp(neu) With a positive 90 day outlook also,Life cell (lifc) 18% position.I would appreciate any thoughts on life cell which is under review IMHO ron | ||
