goodwill hunter

Wynn resort's

2008-07-14T21:14:03Z

Wynn's number in las vegas are busted all the number's are down.Operating income.adjusted property ebitda,table game drops,slot machine handle.all down from same period of 07.All hotel numbers are down.I believe there are to many room's and the opening of any more room's ie The encore project will add to this over capacity.Wynn has some good land that they got cheap.but what that worth in todays realestate market in las vegas.Most of the revenue in las vegas comes from slots as more states legalize slot's this area of revenue will take a hit.Wynn will have to increase the COMP"S to sucker people in.Low rollers are near done in america.Consumer confidence is very low in america.The economy is in a conjuction of dysfunction as one jp morgan analyst put it.I honestly believe that we are heading into a deep recession.The gaming industry will take a hit.The operating enviroment in las vegas will not improve.They should start flying in the chinese "high roller's" from their macau operation,which should see some increased revenue from the olympics.I'm concerned about the chinese manipulation of the yun to the dollar.The stock buy back program is nice,but what about a dividend and pension for their employes.If america goes into a deep recession the effect's will hurt their macau operation For me and gaming stock's "all bet's are off" You can sucker some people some of the time,but not all the people all of the time. Cerca Trova

Score a goal with coal

2008-07-09T18:32:16Z

I've spent that last few days catching up on the coal industry and arch coal.First energy is in a bubble.To me the energy bubble is a lot different then the dot con bubble.People where buying the stock of company's that where not making a "Profit"or Future potential.The effect of the bubble bursting was more bottom's up then top's down as energy will be when the fed get's out it's neddle to bust the bubble.And I still did'nt forget the analyst role in it all.Take enron not one analyst had a "sell" on the stock. More recently take the financial's how in the world could you honestly follow the rec'c of an analyst for bear sterns or lehman's .My father said it best"opinion's are like asshole's we all got one and they all stink.Back to arch coal,Coal as a hole is in high demand as more giga watts of power come online.Arch should be able to increse profit margin with it's new streamed lined operation's.As cost per ton price increase's so should profit's.Arch has a lot of reserve coal.The recent decline in the stock price to me is the stock setting a new base and some profit taking.Watch the moving average's and volume.3-6 months price target of 95

Casey's at bat

2008-06-22T23:19:54Z

First the chart's Casey's is down 32% for the year,but has been in an extreme rally on better then expected earning's report.This rally should stall/stop.Gas margin's are down and people are buying less gas per trip.Casey makes most of its profits on soda and prepared food.What I'm most worried about is the economy in the mid west .crop failures flooding and a contracting economy will hurt convience stores as consumers look to save money.Casey's at bat,but he's no home run king

United Health Prognosis

2008-05-20T20:24:34Z

Prognosis-physical 11yrs double digit earning's growth.Growth by acquisition model positive.Positive stock buy back program.Now the bad news.The quote that comes to mind when I look at united health is from sigmund freud- All human society is constructed on a complicity in a great crime. When you look at their record its full of corruption from option back dating to the igenix database.IMHO this data base should be run indepent third party.In game theory you got two hawks (doctors and insurers) fighting to pass the buck on to one dove.There is profit in confusion.I would buy unh at this low. With a price target of 3-5 yrs 80-105.United is physically well,but mentally ill

Croc's Fad or folly

2008-05-12T18:56:05Z

I've come to the conculsion that they need to fire some people at croc's for underproduction then overproduction, stale inventory.In the word's of Donald Trump "Your fired".This is the first year that croc's will have a world wide prensence.What i'm concerned about is that a fad in america is not a fad in praque. From the tech side the stock is extremly over sold and may go sideways and get a "dead cat bounce" I honestly belive that the party is over for croc's and company is going to be made into purse's You are bottom guessing and speculating on a poorly run company with a product that is in my opinion is a fad.This is a high risk play suited for the more aggressive investor .Price targets for 90 day's 7 to 13

SLO and the cnbc portfolio challenge

2008-05-07T19:08:01Z

Would anyone care to take part in the portfolio challenge with me.Make a model to submit.This is a great way to get some national attention to investorplaceblogs.com and the slo community. I need to get some bonus bucks by refering people to the challenge if you would like to be invited please e mail me@ ronald.stach@yahoo.com with your address cerca trova ron

Market sentiment trumps earnings report's-Model portfolio Report 4-18-08

2008-04-18T14:51:28Z

Overall market sentiment trumped earning's report's this week.At the time of this report the model was up close to 4% for the week. Sell's today ( lagging ) nvo, spwr,eslr Buy to 4% Ibm. I continue to have a 20% position in New market corp(neu) With a positive 90 day outlook also,Life cell (lifc) 18% position.I would appreciate any thoughts on life cell which is under review IMHO ron

The red pens and skeleton's - Portfolio Report 4-14-08

2008-04-14T18:16:58Z

The model has repositioned and as they say in blackjack "I'm sticking" this model has done well since I sarted to actively maintain it. I only hope that there is another round , best of 2 out of 3,.Its been a tough market out there. I thought that if this contest was a short contest I would of won. Any thoughts on the duration of this reccession?. Will it be V shaped or U shaped.This is not the first down turn I've been through 2000-01. .One thing that I remember the and is still good today.The market alway's makes money. In a constricting market you must identify a sector or as the model toady,a group of equites that you can count on.You must'nt pay attention to the daily bear report's in a long fund.IT'S A MARATHON FOR CHESS PLAYERS , NO SPRINT'S OR CHECKERS One of my favorites quotes is " Any man who is a bear on the future of this country will go broke"-JP MORGAN

Model portfolio report Thursday 4-10-08

2008-04-10T16:07:00Z

It seeem, that the general concenus today, ahead of the earnings season is that earnings estimates are Puffed up and expecting alot of earnings to come in below analyst estimates.I see that the S&P is in a sideway's trading pattern and the vix is also saying that a rally is not likely to continue Today and friday I'm going to restructer the model . Any thoughts as to the current model and stock's could be added Sell today bucy from 20% to 4% Sold, wmb,agu Buys-swn to 4%,neu to 20% Solar stock's-eslr,spwr

Portfolio Report 4-9-08

2008-04-09T17:22:40Z

Today ,sell's mostly motivated to raise cash for repositing.No profit taking on top performers rrc,lifc,ma,neu Today sell's-Lagging-amed,wfr,cprt,wdc,anss.oi,ctx,axys. Todays buy"s-Increased positing in POT from 1% to 4%,MON-from 1 share to 4% ,V -from 1% to 4%,neu from 2% to 4% The Week Ahead Report The model is being ajusted to take profits from the top performer's at the close of the market friday All gain's and laggard's taken , will be redistribtued to these sectors's,Chemical(basic),Petroleum(producing),Coal. Please comment on the model and your 90 day outlook on equites

Potash= Cash

2008-04-08T19:27:02Z

Potash has been on a roll since july 2006 what has fueled this growth is record demand and growth of corn crop's and wheat demand.What I like most about potash is that they own three mines (cutting out the middle man).Record crops drain soil necessitating fertlizer need and also underfertilization.There are 195 ethanol plants in america taking anywhere from 25-50% of the usa corn crop for 2008.Some plants are expanding and demand for ethanol in the near term should stay at current levels or increase.Congress could stop or limit new license's for ethanol plants. Foreign demand and Potash price increse for fertilizer should fertilize profit margin's and stock price momentum . The prudent bear in me is looking for the perfect storm.I have faith in the US economy with it's keynesist policy's.The world economy in general is stable.It would not be a suprise to see potash @ 300 in a year or so IMHO e pluribus unum Ron Stach

xmsr/siri

2008-03-05T20:32:00Z

Let's look at the chart's-Interactive performance comparison chart,Both stock have been tracking together since mid Dec 2006. From the chart point of view 50 /50 neutral rating.It seem this is a purely "buy on the rumor sell on the new's " play .Speculative play. The human factor,It seem that the deal is being held up more by the DOJ than the FCC and could be killed or delayed by REP.Green and the broadcast radio lobby.if and when approved both companies may have to give concession's The delay or denial of this merger is more political the regulatory, Also external product factor's from Ipod to 10 disk cd changers This merger is for the more aggressive investor .This could be a Led Zepplin

nutri system

2008-02-28T02:09:41Z

The only thing loosing weight at nutri system is the stock price.Let's look and see what going on, first the charts. The stock is extremly over sold Which favor the long trades.Im expecting the pull back to stop at @ 5-12 dollars a share.Then go sideway's until the business model is fixed or replaced.The effects of Alli on nutri system is stagering nutri system could be facing negative growth in 2008 .Customer acquisition cost up 50%ytd. It seem that ntri should form some kind of relationship with alli or trim spa or green tea . Subway has their guy I'd like to see william "the refrigaraitor" perry on a commerical. better do something fast or the ceo is going to go on the best diet in the world poverty and starvation

Round 2

2008-02-04T01:02:34Z

2-03-08 created my universe of 100 stock's today . 1 share weighted fund. Will review all 100 stock's and will make the top 12 precentage weighted. See portfolio for list of stock's .All stock's will be reviewed for a number of factors to determine their weighting E PLURIBUS UNUM

Changes to the model

2007-12-05T20:31:12Z

12/5/07 -sell's, to 1% of fund, ACI- trading side way's from 3.70% to 1%.DRYS waiting to cross 50-rsi,2.76% to 1%, ATVI- looking for a 100 rsi@ 71.9087 selling close to 100 BUY"S-SOLF from1.97% to 4%