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I've been thinking these words since the government took food and energy costs out of the inflation forecast.
The beginning of 2008 may present an opportunity for profits in energy, agriculture, and gold, but later in the year may set up one of the biggest buying opportunites for value investors in years. Sell off some of your profitable positions to raise cash in the first quarter so you will be well positioned to take advantage of the upcoming fire sale in some stock sectors.
One of Sir John Templeton's best remarks was "Buy when there's blood on the streets." Well, investors, there'll be plenty of that in the financials and the retailers. Personally I'm loading up on SHLD (Sears Holding), AIG, and several of the higher yielding banks. There's still time to pick and choose over the next six months as things may get even more grim. Consumers have Christmas bills and high energy bills to pay and raises have failed to keep up with the rising costs even though they mirror the "inflation" rate.
When you invest, go for the large caps and pay attention to the dividend yield. You may have to hold your stock picks for a period of time; you may as well get paid by the company as you wait for the market to improve. Also, watch for buybacks. Those can accelerate your progress. Most companies announce buybacks and there are web sites that track this information for you.
One final word on value, put your patient cap on. These stocks can drag around for months before they take off, but the upside is always worth the wait if you select carefully.
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Comments (5)
Becky.
Did you hear the one about the Statistician that DROWNED while wading in a pool of water which had an average Depth of Three Inches.
It's FAR worse than you think.
First of all the BIG item that was never included on any inflation measure is TAXES.
The Tax burden is hurting the Economy. In SE Virginia the Real Estate Taxes had been Increasing North of 15% a year during the housing Bubble. That has hurt a lot of people.
I just talked to a man who said his Business Equipment City Tax went up 40% this year.
The other thing that helps with the Prevarication is Quality adjustments -
if they sell a car with a racing stripe on it standard this year that had been an option last year - the the total increase in the car Price is 'Blamed' on the new Stripe being an "improvement" in Quality.
Here's the BIG ONE. An example : Automobile manufacturers put a sticker price on a car then offer REBATES. If the sticker price stays the same but the Rebate goes to ZERO - NO inflation but the guy who bought the car pays MORE for the car.
his is a Hold-Over from the Whip Inflation NOW Days in Carter's Administration when Government FIAT froze Prices. Answer - set a high price then give rebates and Discounts to be competitive. The
Inflation Index only reports the constant
Price not the rising cost.
A real TRUE Index would answer the question -
How much money would it take me this year to exactly duplicate my Standard of Living LAST Year.
Governments don't lie - they just omit certain facts and/or 'Trick' you into thinking you into 'hearing' what they aren't saying to you.
What's the difference between an "operating" profit and the quarterly profit of a Corporation. If you don't know what the definition of the term "operating" is you won't understand what was said and think they are the same. Watch the lawyer Legal language and ask yourself if anybody in government knows what the meaning of "IS" is.
Don L. Ferk
( aka VikingWarrior )
Posted by don ferk | December 30, 2007 2:07 AM
Hey Don,
The WIN (Whip Inflation Now) campaign started under Nixon and continued with Ford. I think it was over by the time Carter was in office. The information you provided was enlightening, just don't want it to be tainted by your incorrect attribution.
Posted by StopSimplisticThinking | December 30, 2007 9:47 AM
Becky, I am concerned about inflation but everyone knew it is coming .
I saw a a youngster that oil was the bases of almost everything. It contains it or you need it to make the product. To me simple DuffBeer's take how do you hide 2 elephants in your living room ??
Should you not see them go to the grocery store then you will see them . Now Duff goes to the fine goods store commonly know as a liquor store and he has notice a 1 dollar difference on most of the 6 paks of the crafted beers . They say hops and the grains cost
more !!! I warn all of you stock up now cause I am going to buy all the crafted beer I can before it goes up anymore.
Thanks for reminding me that I must go shopping tomorrow .
Cheers, DuffBeer Happy and healthy New Year to you and
your family
Posted by duffbeer | December 30, 2007 7:49 PM
Stopper,
you are correct, sir.
The Social Security System went BANKRUPT in Carter's days. He told them to just keep sending checks out. Hyper Inflation.
The Gov't issued 30 year bonds with a CALL provision - 'K' Bonds - called back later but 14-15% interest. Also, to get 'foreign' money in on the Bond-Float bail-out - they 'excused' foreign money from the 20% with-holding for people who owed too much at Tax Time - no Qtrly Est. Tax payments. How many foreigners do you think filed on April 15 to pay U.S. Income tax on bond interest.
I'm nat as dumb as DuffBeer looks.
Regardless of Presidents - you must agree it happened.
Also - at that time there were no annual dues for credit cards. The Gov't wanted to hold down 'consuming' - forced the fees by law.
I got a letter from my CC Co - said they would drop it when things cooled down in thhe Economy. NEVER HAPPENED - they pocketed it - it 'bailed' the banks out - then raised it & it is still with us today. STAGFLATION may be as well.
I've seen this movie B4 ( BINGO !!! Not so )
Don Lee Ferk ( aka VikingWarrior )
Posted by | December 31, 2007 8:12 AM
Duffy,
What's the shelf life of non-pasteurized beer in a hot reefer becuz the electric cut your Power die to no or slow pay.
I hide elephants all the time. You paint thir toe-nails with different colors of finger-nail
polish and hide them in bags of M&M's.
What's WRONG with you, duff? What's the "story" on you anyways ? What's YOUR problem ?
Don Lee Ferk ( aka VikingWarrior )
PS : I could hide a Million elephants & Jack-asses in Congress or the so-called Balanced Budget.
Posted by don ferk | December 31, 2007 8:20 AM