August 2007 Archives (Scot's SWAG Picks)

August 2007 Archives

As the SLO begins ...

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Focusing on my long term fund SCET1, I've began with the belief that the downturn we were going through was to be short-lived. I bought heavily to take advantage of the climb back up.
While I have not changed my belief, I have taken more of a beating right off the bat than I had hoped for.
I have made some sector allocation adjustments, but I have not yet seen the indicators that this downturn is more than temporary. After the FED news this week I believe that we will be headed out of this dip.
A couple of notes of interest, I believe that the BBI/NFLX pricewar is about to end based on research, analyst discussions and some recent changes by BBI so I have purchased a small position in both because I see both rebounding this/next quarter as thy strive to keep shareholders happy.
I think that Technology and Energy will be the big sectors for the next 2-4 quarters and my positions reflect this. I have positions in Mining, Finance and Health for stability in the belief that no matter how bad things get (just in case my current view is incorrect) these will help offset other movement in the wrong direction.
While I have a not insignificant position Large Cap issues I have established the majority of my positions in the smaller issues and though not without risk I have focused on Growth/Blend to make this a more aggresive portfolio.
We'll see how things look this time next week.

Where is the bottom ...

Rating: -1.00 (2 votes) Vote:

This has to be the question of the week (month?) ...
The temptation as a beginner is to dump the poor performers and reinvest in either new picks or the ones that are doing well. But I still believe that this downward plunge will end soon and my research for the issues that I have selected still shows that they will make money for the mid to long term so I am not making any changes as we move into week 3.
I have chosen 27 securities to populate my portfolio currently with a goal of riding in the neighborhood of 25 based on some theories I have been working on for year. I use many different tools to pick the stocks in my portfolio, including looking for winners in the CAPS portfolios (particularly MSN CAPS), using S&P and Reuters research reports and utilizing my own knowledge in the technology and energy sectors.
While I have taken some losses over the past week my portfolio is still leading the S&P and I have seen the light above $10 NAV a couple of times in the past couple of weeks. I am striving to maintain compliance at all times and have almost 90% invested (11% cash as of today) and have maintained that level since the start.
Some of the less known items that my research dug up that have done well are CAVM, STAR & NUAN in the tech sector and OII in the energy sector. In addition my belief that BBI would begin to recover from its price war with NFLX due to some internal strategy changes seems to be playing out, I believe that NFLX will make the turn and start up before the week ends.
I look at many diferent aspects in trending a stock for when to buy/sell, looking at 6 month history using a composite of 50/100/200 day SMA, RSI, a 20 day 8% SMA Envelope, Volume by Price analysis and Bolinger Bands over 20 days using 2 deviations.
AS my day job takes up most of my time I am happy with my results so far (relatively speaking) even though I am down and I still believe that my portfolio will be on the upside by this time next week, this volatility should not be able to maintain, the 'credit crunch' will evaporate and I believe that we will see an extended gradual climb after a brief radical upswing so don't jump ship on your winners too soon and stick with your picks, if they are based on sound research they will ride out the storm.
See you again next week ...

On the upswing ...

Rating: 0.39 (23 votes) Vote:

Well it does indeed look as if we found the bottom [for now] last week and can expect a few weeks of upward movement in my portfolio.
I am seeing good success with many of the picks that I rode throught the past couple of weeks with a half a dozen above 10% return and 10 more in positive territory.
The close of last week brought me into the top 100 on the leader board, I hope that I can manage to stay there.
I have closed my positions on a few of the poorer performers (worse than -5%) that were showing less than encouraging trends (CDE, MNG, SIRI) I also divested AAPL last week as my trend data indicates they can expect a short term down swing, target $120.
I had an investment in CAVM which has shown a 16% return but several factors in my analysis indicate that they are losing strength and will see a reversal on some of this, target $23.50.
A not surprising recent skyrocket is VMW which I have riden to a 29% gain, and I see this one continuing, indeed I've added to my position on this one to make it the largest single position at 10% of my portfolio.
The 3:1 split on RIMM did wonders for my balance and OII, STAR, BBI & NUAN continue to be outperforms for me.
I have added positions in MTW, FMC & JCI providing some diversity in place of the positions I have closed, these all are looking and have splits in the near future.
I will continue to ride the core of my portfolio, keeping in the neighborhood of 90% invested and watch for opportunities to achieve the aggressive growth I've designed this portfolio for.
I'll be on the road this week ... we'll see how things look this time next week.

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