StockSoup

Void of Any Original Thought

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The whole idea of this contest had me mildly intrigued when it began - a contest based on part stock picking and part yarn spinnin'. Being a follower of the market and a Southerner (we can spin better than any other, ya'll), I thought this might be right up my alley. Well time passed and my stock picks in the first contest were about as effective as any one of Joe Biden's presidential campaigns. Furthermore, I grew tired of throwing my writings in a sea of regurgitation by the usual market hucksters. My only prize from last fall was a comment from Vad Yazvinski, a.k.a. Dishwasher, telling me that one of my earlier posts was the best of the contest. (http://www.investorplaceblogs.com/users/ssales/2007/08/am_i_just_an_amex_stock.php)

Alas, my fan club of one deteriorated with the rest of the market. Now we are here to do this again, and I wonder what makes the blogs on this site any different from another site. A quick check of the top holdings for the contest show a top five of AAPL, RIMM, BIDU, GOOG, and GRMN. This would make these blogs different from any other web site how? Is original thought dead? If I want to watch lemmings work, I will go to the zoo. Vad won this thing last time and he was willing to take a few steps off the well-beaten path - MGI, ETFC, GEOY, PTNR, CEL, HOLX, CTCM, etc.

A friend explained to me once that money managers buy the same stuff as everyone else not because they want to make as much as they can, but because they want to make sure they do not do worse than anyone else. No one plays to win, but they play to not lose. His theory is alive and well here. Last week, I saw that Wachovia Securities downgraded TGIC to "market perform" from "market outperform", this coming after the stock had fallen from the low 50's to the single digits in the second half of 2007. Just what made these rocket scientists decide to do this now, and just who pays for this advice? This is like a father declaring that his son might be gay after watching his son cross dress, attend George Michael fan club meetings, and wear various nipple rings for the last decade. You wonder just what was the straw that broke(back) the camel's back?

With my confidence shattered from the last contest, I, nonetheless, jump in to 2008 with my contrarian picks, hoping to fare better this time around. I like RDN, TGIC (sorry Wachovia), PFE, LOW, TMA, and ITYC. I realize that this group is like forming a committee of potential prom dates made up of Bea Arthur, Kelly Osborne, Amy Winehouse, Lyle Lovett, and Carrot Top. However, I think this market will start turning a few ugly ducklings into swans soon enough, and if not, I will just take comfort in the fact that most of you that beat me will just be copying someone else's positions, not making a stand of your own.